Reallocation and productivity growth in Japan: revisiting the lost decade of the 1990s

Hayashi and Prescott (Rev Econ Dyn 5(1):206–235, 2002) argue that the ‘lost decade’ of the 1990s in Japan is explained by the slowdown in exogenous TFP growth rates. At the same time, other research suggests that Japanese banks’ support for inefficient firms prolonged recessions by reducing productivity through misallocation of resources. Using the data on large manufacturing firms between 1969 and 1996, the paper attempts to disentangle the factors behind the slowdown in productivity growth during the 1990s. The main results show that there was a significant drop in within-firm productivity, the component that is not affected by reallocation of input and output shares across firms over time, during the 1990s. Although we find that misallocation among large continuing firms represents a substantial drag to overall TFP growth for these firms throughout the sample period, the negative impact of misallocation was least visible during the 1990s. The significant reduction in within-firm productivity growth suggests that, as the Japanese economy has matured, a policy which fosters technological innovations via greater competition, R&D, and fast technological adoption may have become increasingly important in promoting economic growth.

Spillovers,Linkages and Technical Change

Using US input–output data for the period 1958–87, I find strong evidence that industry total factor productivity (TFP) growth is significantly related to the TFP performance of the supplying sectors, with an elasticity of almost 60%. R&D intensity is also found to be a significant determinant of industry TFP growth, with an estimated return of about 10–13% and the return to embodied R&D is estimated at 43%. Direct productivity spillovers, from the technological progress made by supplying sectors, appear to be more important than spillovers from the R&D performed by suppliers. They also play a key role in explaining changes in manufacturing TFP growth over time. Changes in the contribution made by direct productivity spillovers to TFP growth account for almost half of the slowdown in TFP growth in manufacturing from 1958–67 to 1967–77, and for 20% of the TFP growth recovery in this sector from 1967–77 to 1977–87. Changes in R&D intensity and embodied R&D are relatively unimportant in explaining movements in manufacturing TFP growth over these three periods.     

Corporate R&D and firm efficiency: evidence from Europe’s top R&D investors

The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of corporate research and development (R&D) activities on firm performance, measured by labour productivity. To this end, the stochastic frontier technique is used on a unique unbalanced longitudinal dataset comprising top European R&D investors over the period 2000–2005. In this framework, this study quantifies technical inefficiency of individual firms. From a policy perspective, the results of this study suggest that if the aim is to leverage firms’ productivity, the emphasis should be put on supporting corporate R&D in high-tech sectors and, to some extent, in medium-tech sectors. On the other hand, corporate R&D in the low-tech sector is found to have a minor effect in explaining productivity. Instead, encouraging investment in fixed assets appears important for the productivity of low-tech industries. Hence, the allocation of support for corporate R&D seems to be as important as its overall increase and an ‘erga omnes’ approach across all sectors appears inappropriate. However, with regard to technical efficiency, R&D intensity is found to be a pivotal factor in explaining firm efficiency and this turns out to be true for all industries.     

Using the fuzzy associative memory (FAM) computation to explore the R&;D project performance

This study found out there were nonlinear relationships between the R&D project performance and its determinants—R&D project manager’s skills, quality of project environment, and teamwork effectiveness—by using the Fuzzy Associative Memory (FAM) technique in the IC design industry of Taiwan. The results showed that R&D project manager’s skills and quality of project environment had significantly inverse U-shaped effects on the R&D project performance, while teamwork effectiveness had almost monotonic positive influence upon it. Therefore, there were optimal values for R&D project manager’s skills and quality of project environment for the R&D project performance in the Taiwanese IC design companies, although they can raise teamwork effectiveness as much as possible.     

Stochastic Technical Change and Procyclical TFP The Case of Italian Agriculture

The paper questionsthe use of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) measures as a proxyfor the technological level in Italian agriculture. TFP growthreveals a cyclical behaviour and a short-run component due toshocks on both the demand and supply sides. In order to identifyreal long-run technological change, a Kalman filter procedureis applied to a stochastic process depicting the generation oftechnical change induced by R&D and Extension expenditure.The empirical evidence reveals that short-term shocks greatlyaffect the traditional measure of productivity. A better indicatorof technological progress can be obtained by estimating the long-runcomponent of productivity, which seems to be significantly inducedby R&D-Extension public expenditure.     

Self-organization of R&D search in complex technology spaces

We extend an earlier model of innovation dynamics based on percolation by adding endogenous R&D search by economically motivated firms. The {0, 1} seeding of the technology lattice is now replaced by draws from a lognormal distribution for technology ‘difficulty’. Firms are rewarded for successful innovations by increases in their R&D budget. We compare two regimes. In the first, firms are fixed in a region of technology space. In the second, they can change their location by myopically comparing progress in their local neighborhoods and probabilistically moving to the region with the highest recent progress. We call this the moving or self-organizational regime (SO). The SO regime always outperforms the fixed one, but its performance is a complex function of the ‘rationality’ of firm search (in terms of search radius and speed of movement). The clustering of firms in the SO regime grows rapidly and then fluctuates in a complex way around a high value that increases with the search radius. We also investigate the size distributions of the innovations generated in each regime. In the fixed one, the distribution is approximately lognormal and certainly not fat tailed. In the SO regime, the distributions are radically different. They are much more highly right skewed and show scaling over at least 2 decades with a slope around one, for a wide range of parameter settings. Thus we argue that firm self-organization leads to self-organized criticality. The online version of the original article can be found under doi:.     

Allocation of public funds to R&;D: a portfolio choice-styled decision model and a biotechnology case study

A decision problem—allocating public research and development (R&D) funding—is faced by a planner who has ambiguous knowledge of welfare effects of the various research areas. We model this as a reverse portfolio choice problem faced by a Bayesian decision-maker. Two elements of the planner’s inferential system are developed: a conditional distribution of welfare ‘returns’ on an allocation, given stated preferences of citizens for the different areas, and a minimum risk criterion for re-allocating these funds, given the performance of a status quo level of funding. A case study of Canadian public research funds expended on various applications of agricultural biotechnology is provided. The decision-making methodology can accommodate a variety of collective expenditure and resource allocation problems.     

Technological Opportunity and Productivity of R&D Activities

Economists have managed to find a positive impact of R&D efforts on productivity. However, the empirical results of their studies have not explained the observed sectoral differences in this important impact. With due reference to three global industries, namely, chemical, computer, and electrical/electronic, the objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of technological opportunity on the productivity of R&D activities. Technological opportunity refers to the ease of achievement of innovations and technical improvements, which could be jointly represented by the intensities of knowledge spillovers, inter-firm research overlap and scope of research. In this study, the degree of technological opportunity is quantified by patent statistics. The empirical findings confirm a positive relationship between technological opportunity and the productivity of R&D effort, and the estimated rate of return falls within the range as reported by past studies.     

Impact of R&D and Technology Diffusion on Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence for 10 OECD Countries

This paper examines the empirical evidence on the impact of performed R&D and of R&D embodied in intermediate and capital goods on productivity performance in 10 major OECD countries over the last two decades. To quantify intersectoral and international technology flows, industry-level embodied R&D variables were constructed from an input–output (IO) R&D embodiment model. The productivity variables used are discrete Divisia growth indexes of total factor productivity (TFP), which were estimated from an IO growth accounting model. The results from pooled regressions indicate that the rates of return of the R&D variables were positively significant and increasing in the 1980s. In particular, embodied R&D is an important source for TFP growth in services, indicating very high social returns of the flows of capital-embodied technology into this sector. Moreover, the information and communi-cation technology (ICT) cluster of industries played a major role in the generation and cquisition of new technologies at the international level.     

Corporate cash holdings and total factor productivity – A global analysis

Studies concerning total factor productivity (TFP) have investigated the effect of TFP on economic growth from a country-level perspective, which is a critical issue in the macroeconomics field. Few studies have examined how corporate financial decisions influence TFP from a firm-level perspective. Specifically, no extant studies have investigated how cash holdings affect firm productivity. This study utilizes data for firms in 65 countries during 1993–2017 to investigate the effect of cash holdings on TFP from a corporate perspective. The findings show that firms with higher cash holdings can enhance TFP. The results hold after considering endogenous problems, financial constraints, financial crises, corporate governance, institutional quality, and financial development as well as various robustness tests. Furthermore, we examine whether firms consistently invest their cash holdings into research and development (R&D) expenditures enhances firm productivity. The evidence indicates that higher cash holdings lead to steady increases in R&D expenditure, which improves firms’ TFP.     

Productivity,efficiency and technical change: measuring the performance of China’s transforming agriculture

As China enters the twenty-first century the health of the agricultural economy will increasingly rely, not on the growth of inputs, but on the growth of total factor productivity (TFP). However, the tremendous changes in the sector—sometimes back and sometimes forwards—as well as evolving institutions make it difficult to gauge from casual observation if the sector is healthy or not. Research spending has waxed and waned. Policies to encourage the import of foreign technologies have been applied unevenly. Structural adjustment policies also triggered wrenching changes in the sector. Horticulture and livestock production has boomed; while the output of other crops, such as rice, wheat and soybeans, has stagnated or fallen. At a time when China’s millions of producers are faced with complex decisions, the extension system is crumbling and farmer professional associations remain in their infancy. In short, there are just as many reasons to be optimistic about the productivity trends in agriculture as to be pessimistic. In this paper, we pursue one overall goal: to better understand the productivity trends in China’s agricultural sector during the reform era—with an emphasis on the 1990–2004 period. To do so, we pursue three specific objectives. First, relying on the National Cost of Production Data Set—China’s most complete set of farm input and output data—we chart the input and output trends for 23 of China’s main farm commodities. Second, using a stochastic production frontier function approach we estimate the rate of change in TFP for each commodity. Finally, we decompose the changes in TFP into two components: changes in efficiency and changes in technical change. Our findings—especially after the early 1990s are remarkably consistent. China’s agricultural TFP has grown at a healthy rate for all 23 commodities. TFP growth for the staple commodities generally rose around 2% annually; TFP growth for most horticulture and livestock commodities was even higher (between 3 and 5%). Equally consistent, we find that most of the change is accounted for by technical change. The analysis is consistent with the conclusion that new technologies have pushed out the production functions, since technical change accounts for most of the rise in TFP. In the case of many of the commodities, however, the efficiency of producers—that is, the average distance of producers from the production frontier—has fallen. In other words, China’s TFP growth would have been even higher had the efficiency of production not eroded the gains of technical change. Although we do not pinpoint the source of rising inefficiency, the results are consistent with a story that there is considerable disequilibrium in the farm economy during this period of rapid structural change and farmers are getting little help in making these adjustments from the extension system.     

Rates of return to public agricultural research in 48 US states

The internal rate of return to public investment in agricultural R&D is estimated for each of the continental US states. Theoretically, our contribution provides a way of obtaining the returns to a local public good using Rothbart’s concept of virtual prices. Empirically, a stochastic cost function that includes own knowledge capital stock as well as spillover capital stock variables is estimated. Stochastic spatial dependency among states generated by knowledge spillovers is used to define the ‘appropriate’ jurisdictions. We estimate an average own-state rate of 17% and a social rate of 29% that compare well to the 9 and 12% average returns of the S&P500 and NASDAQ composite indexes during the same period.     

R&D,Interindustry and International Technology Spillovers and the Total Factor Productivity Growth of Manufacturing Industries in Canada, 1974-1989

The paper presents new econometric evidence on the relationship between total factor productivity growth and the R&D expenditures of Canadian manufacturing industries in the presence of interindustry and international spillovers of technology. In contrast to studies that presume that international spillovers are incorporated in imports of intermediate and/or capital equipment goods, the present paper assumes that the principal channel of transmission of new technology is foreign direct investment. Three original proxies for international spillovers use information on patenting, the size and the origin of foreign ownership in the host country and the R&D expenditures in the country of origin. The results suggest that the nexus between industry's own R&D expenditures and the TFP growth is significant and positive, especially for the process-related R&D. Domestic interindustry spillovers of new technology have a larger effect on TFP than industry's own R&D expenditures. All three proxies for international technology spillovers are associated positively and significantly with TFP growth. However, international spillovers contribute to TFP growth less than domestic interindustry spillovers and less than own process-related R&D.     

A micro-econometric analysis of the role of R&D spillovers using a nonlinear translog specification

This paper assesses the impact of Research and Development (R&D) spillovers on production for a panel of 1,203 Italian manufacturing firms over the period 1998–2003.The estimations are based on a nonlinear translog production function augmented by a measure of R&D spillovers which combines the geographical distance between firms, the technological similarity within each pair of firms and the technical efficiency of each firm. The estimation method takes into account the endogeneity of regressors and the potential sample selection issue regarding the decision by firms to invest in R&D. Results show that the translog production function is more suitable than the Cobb-Douglas for modelling firm behaviour and that returns to scale are increasing. Moreover, the internal and external stocks of technology exert a significant impact on firms’ production. Finally, it emerges that, for Italian manufacturing firms, R&D capital and R&D spillovers are highly substitutes.     

On robust asymmetric equilibria in asymmetric R&;D-driven growth economies

In R&D-driven growth models with asymmetric fundamentals, the steady-state equilibrium R&D investments are industry-specific, and they are such that R&D returns are equalized across industries. Return equalization, however, makes investors indifferent as to where to target research and, hence, the problem of allocation of R&D investments across industries is indeterminate. Agents’ indifference creates an ambiguous investment scenario. We assume that agents hold “ambiguous” beliefs on the per-industry profitability of their R&D investments. Investors’ aversion towards ambiguity eliminates the indeterminacy of the investment problem. In particular, the asymmetric return-equalizing equilibrium is robust against a however small degree of investors’ ambiguity aversion.     

Firms' human capital,R&D and performance: a study on French and Swedish firms

This paper studies the effects of human and technological capital on productivity in a sample of large French and Swedish firms. While the role of technological capital as measured by R&D has been intensively investigated, almost no work has been done on the role of human capital as measured by firm-sponsored training and even less its interaction with technological capital. The level of intangible capital may also have a lasting effect on productivity growth, as emphasised by some endogenous growth models in a macroeconomic setting.The study uses data from two panels of large French and Swedish firms for the same period (1987–1993). It constructs measures of a firm's human capital stock, based on their past and present training expenditures. The results confirm that firm-sponsored training and R&D are significant inputs in the two countries, although to a different extent, and have high returns. However, except for managers and engineers in France, we do not find evidence of positive interactions between these two types of capital. Finally, growth effects at the firm level do not appear.     

Industrial Productivity Growth Linkages Between OECD Countries, 1970–90

Technology ‘spillovers’ are increasingly being recognized as sources of productivity growth. International ‘convergence’ in productivity levels has also been noted in recent studies. This paper reports a study of international total factor productivity (TFP) growth for 11 industrial sectors in seven OECD countries. Spillover variables are defined based on interindusty and international invention input–output (I(IO)) weights. These variables are tested against import-weighted variables. The study concludes that I(IO)-weighted R&D ‘spill-ins’ are important determinants of TFP growth and that convergence is dependent on domestic RBD.     

Creating technology candidates for disruptive innovation: Generally applicable R&D strategies

In this paper, we first examined the importance of technology creation in technological disruptive innovations (DIs), and found both academic scholars and industrial practitioners have underestimated the challenging nature and importance of technology at least in technological DI. We then moved upstream to study empirically how technology candidates could be created purposefully for potential technological DI. Four generally applicable R&D strategies were abstracted from intensive studies on 37 technological DIs, by applying the central thoughts of principal component analysis which transforms many correlated variables into a small number of uncorrelated ones. The four R&D strategies abstracted are miniaturization, simplification, augmentation and exploitation for another application. Their creation of DI was examined, postulated and then demonstrated by means of the Delphi method. The frequencies of their utilization were also compiled and the implications discussed. This study has further advanced the knowledge at the front-end of R&D, i.e. the technology perspective of DI. It hopes to facilitate more purposeful creation of technology candidates for potential technological DI in future.     

Technological spillovers and productivity in Italian manufacturing firms

We study whether a firm’s total factor productivity dynamics is positively influenced by its own R&D activity and by the technological spillovers generated at the intra- and inter-sectorial level. Our approach corrects simultaneously for the endogeneity and the selectivity biases introduced by the use of a firm’s own R&D as a regressor. The evidence suggests that a firm’s involvement in R&D activities accounts for significant productivity gains. Firms also benefit from spillovers originating from their own industries, as well as from innovative upstream sectors.     

Cooperative R&D ventures: Strategic behavior versus transactional efficiency

This paper examines a sample of 48 cooperative R&D ventures announced in the period 1983–1990 to determine their impact on the stock price of the announcing firms. It finds that the venturing firms earn statistically significant positive abnormal returns over periods surrounding the announcement date. These gains are greater than those that result from announcements of increases in expenditures on in-house R&D. The cross-sectional analysis reveals that abnormal returns to the venturing firms are independent of industry concentration, larger in international ventures than in domestic ventures, and equal in cooperative agreements and equity joint ventures. These results support the transactional efficiency perspective of cooperative R&D ventures and suggest that the relaxation of antitrust laws as they apply to cooperative R&D ventures in 1984 is a welfare-improving policy.