Recent declines in fertility in less developed countries,and what ‘population planners’ may learn from them

Significant and rapid fertility declines have occurred in many countries in the poor world over the past decade; many of these were unanticipated by demographers. Despite advances in statistical technique and demographic theory, little is yet known about the demographic rhythms of life in poor countries, or of the social forces behind them. Fertility decline, however, appears to have much to do with changes, economic and otherwise, within the family structure. The impact of ‘family planning’ programmes on fertility decline appears to have been exaggerated. ‘Population planners’ should be sensitive to the fact that a decline in fertility does not necessarily mean that an improvement in the standard of living has occurred, and they should not assume that reducing fertility automatically increases either the quality of life or the prospects for ‘development’.     

Cohort-specific rural-urban migration in Africa

"Rural-urban migration has been modeled by both demographers and economists since the 1960s. Little regard has been given by either discipline for the other's models.... The purpose of this paper is to address this void in the African context. We examine three hypotheses: (1) that variables explaining the net urban in-migration rates vary with the age of the migrants; (2) that changes in the availability of services in urban areas [are] a factor in migration; and (3) that cohort structures (age pyramids) are also part of the explanation."     

Labour migration and economic performance: London and the Randstad,c. 1600–18001

In most studies of early modern north‐western Europe, England is regarded as the successor of the Netherlands in terms of economic leadership. Whereas related topics like institutional and technological change or changes in trade and capital flows have been incorporated into the research on the comparison of these two rival states, labour migration is usually omitted. This article aims to fill this lacuna by focusing on labour migration to the two core regions of the Netherlands and England: the Randstad and London. Two main research questions are raised in this article. First of all, in what way did the two cores and their hinterlands differ with regard to their demographic, economic, and spatial structures, and how did this contribute to different trends in labour migration over time? Secondly, what was the effect of the configuration of the demand and supply factors of London and the Randstad for their economies and for those who lived in them? By trying to answer these two questions this article aims not only to shed light on a hitherto largely unexplored topic in the comparative geographic, economic, and demographic history of the two countries, but also to contribute to the understanding of migration as a factor in the promotion of economic growth.     

Trends in U.S. economics majors: Why the decline in the 1990s?

This paper identifies factors that are important in explaining recent trends in undergraduate economics majors. The decline in economics majors during the 1990s has caused concern in the profession because the declining trend had been attributed to a general decrease in student interest in the economics major. This study uses least squares regression techniques to explain trends in economics bechelor degrees granted by 20 New Jersey colleges and universities during the 1979–2000 period, with implications for the national level. The results show that trends in economics majors are primarily a function of demographic trends, business cycle conditions, and the desire to attend post-graduate professional school. None-the-less, the authors conclude that the declining trend in economics majors in the 1990s is still cause for concern because understanding economic principles is important in the development of a globally competitive workforce.     

The condition and trends of the modern retail market system in Russia: Macroeconomic and financial aspects

The paper explores main trends of the retail market in Russia. The role and place of retail trade systems in the modern economy is described with due regard for international experience. The authors use their original approach to develop quantitative estimates of key financial measures of trade and attempt to appraise the macroeconomic effect of the development of retail trade systems.     

Population policy in South Africa: a critical perspective

The argument in this article is that population growth and the concept of balancing resources against population growth is flawed when the context, in this case South Africa, is gross inequalities in resource distribution. The fact is that causes of poverty are located in the social and political structures which give people unequal access to existing resources or international aid. Population trends reflect the mode of production of that society. It is argued that the Malthusian law of population and the theory of demographic transition is ahistorical and inaccurate. The theory does not explain why population growth rates change. In South Africa, fertility reflects lack of control over one's life and poverty. Migrant labor in South Africa undermined normal social institutions and disrupted family life. Government has emphasized a fear of a future population crisis because of resource shortages and a fear of the growing black population. The South African population development program is extracted and discussed. Questions are raised about the theory of demographic transition, the way resource allocation is ascertained, the relationship between resources and population in a specific area, and the relationship between population growth and development in general. The theory of demographic transition is examined and the Western influences which contributed to population growth through requests for changes in sexual mores and the effects of colonization. When demographic transition theory postulates that mortality rates decline with industrialization as a result of access to medical care and an improved diet, it doesn't take into account the discriminatory health care allocation under apartheid, or the displacement of rural people from their land and undermining of the rural peasantry. Separate development has led to inferior schooling and lack of access to skilled employment. In discussing the availability of resources in South Africa, the question is raised as to whether there is an absolute limit to water, or whether water management or water conservation is at issue, as in the case example of the Transkei. What is economical reflects political decisions about national priorities when consideration is given to alternative strategies for increasing the water supply, or solving pollution problems. The potential to feed South Africans is substantiated, and the problems of maldistribution identified. In establishing the balance between family planning and development, the Population Development Program (PDP) expresses contradictory aims; i.e., seeking community involvement of a politically disenfranchised population. The concept of overpopulation and the application of population control programs in South Africa does not address the problems of poverty and powerlessness.     

Labor shortage in the Russian economy: A macroeconomic estimate

The problem of future labor shortage under the demographic crisis in Russia is posed and considered. Its quantitative estimation for the all-Russia labor market is made, and the results are compared with regard to different scenarios of socioeconomic development. The scale of the future labor shortage in aggregative regional (federal districts) and sectoral labor markets is estimated. Qualitative characteristics of the main aftereffects of the onset of labor shortage and ways of mitigating it are discussed.     

Saving Trends in Southeast Asia: A Cross-Country Analysis

This paper investigates the long-run pattern of private saving in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. These countries have not only maintained saving levels that are currently among the highest in the world, but have also experienced a sustained increase in their rate of private saving over the past twenty years. Using a cointegration approach, this paper empirically examines the economic determinants underlying the saving trends in this group and the extent to which these countries share a common experience with respect to the factors accounting for their strong saving performance. The findings suggest that demographic shifts and, to a somewhat lesser extent, rising per capita incomes have been important factors underlying regional saving trends, with broadly similar long-run impacts across countries. Limited evidence to support a significant and common relation between compulsory and total saving in Singapore and Malaysia is also found.     

Exchange-Rate Coordination for Surmounting the East Asian Currency Crises

This paper investigates the long-run pattern of private saving in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. These countries have not only maintained saving levels that are currently among the highest in the world, but have also experienced a sustained increase in their rate of private saving over the past twenty years. Using a cointegration approach, this paper empirically examines the economic determinants underlying the saving trends in this group and the extent to which these countries share a common experience with respect to the factors accounting for their strong saving performance. The findings suggest that demographic shifts and, to a somewhat lesser extent, rising per capita incomes have been important factors underlying regional saving trends, with broadly similar long-run impacts across countries. Limited evidence to support a significant and common relation between compulsory and total saving in Singapore and Malaysia is also found.     

边疆民族地区人口结构预测及优化对策研究——以云南省为例

人口结构问题对边疆民族地区社会经济发展的制约作用越来越明显。对人口结构进行预测,把握人口结构发展趋势,制定人口结构对策对社会经济发展具有重要的理论和实践意义。优化云南人口结构的对策是：调整生育政策;发挥年龄结构优势使劳动适龄人口充分就业;利用主体功能区划进行人口布局的合理规划。     

The social-demographic situation and labor migration: the Far Eastern vector

This paper examines the demographic and migration components in the development of the population potential in the Far East of Russia, as well as issues of the social development and their effect on the comfort of living in the region. The labor migration and use of foreign labor in the region are examined.     

Labour trends in agriculture: The case of the summer rainfall grain‐producing area

The impact of changes in the labour force on commercial agriculture has received little systematic research attention. In this study the major trends in the post‐war years are described and analysed. It is shown that there has been an increasing substitution of labour for capital over the past fifteen years. The causes of this substitution trend are identified, and it is shown that these should be taken into account in the formulation of farm policy. Labour trends in commercial agriculture also have implications for the broader Southern African economy, and some tentative remarks in this regard serve as motivation for further research.     

Modern Trends and Problems of Migration in a Russian Border Region: The Far East

The article has analyzed trends and problems in migration processes in the Far East of Russia in the 2010s. There are restrictions on population growth in the Far East due to migration. It has been determined that the implementation of modern policy decisions with regard to the Far East region does not create real prerequisites for increasing the incomes of the population. It has been proved that, in order to attract population to the Far East, it is necessary to institute economic development in the region that can increase incomes and make them comparable to other more successful federal districts.     

The Demography of Indonesia in Comparative Perspective

Having reduced its fertility rate over the past 40 years, Indonesia has reached a new demographic crossroad. Its fertility rate is now around 2.5 births per woman, which, if sustained, would add substantial numbers to Indonesia's population in the future. There are concerns within Indonesia that the present level of population growth is an obstacle to continued economic development and, accordingly, that fertility should be reduced to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman as soon as possible. Yet a comparative perspective indicates that countries such as Singapore, Japan, and Thailand are concerned about the effects that their very low rates of fertility are having on their labour forces and their rates of population ageing. This article suggests that with the right policy settings Indonesia can avoid this outcome yet continue to reduce its fertility. It discusses the implications of Indonesia's population growth and distribution for its economy, as well as the poor quality of demographic data.     

Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan

Population aging is an important feature of Japan’s economy, which since 2006 has become a super-aged society. Changes in the age distribution of the population have important macroeconomic implications. Using annual data for 1960–2015, this study tests whether population age shares have long run influences on domestic saving, domestic investment, real GDP, inflation, the fiscal balance, and the current account balance. Cointegration is found between each macroeconomic variable and the demographic variables, which is a key finding of the analysis. The main empirical findings from the long-run cointegrating equations are that the effects of demographic change on the macroeconomic variables are statistically significant and quite strong. Alternative variants of the United Nation’s population projections provide further evidence of the importance of the demographic changes for Japan’s macroeconomic future. This study finds that future trends of key macroeconomic variables are not monotonic, but rather that long swings in the demographic factors produce a mixture of moderate growth periods and episodes of GDP stagnation.     

Main Trends in the Development of World Transport and Russia’s Place in Them

The article has considered the main trends in the development of the a world transport system and general manifestations of prospective trends have been noted, including orientation to qualitative aspects of functioning and competition and interaction with various participants in the transport services market, as well as ambiguous consequences of rapid development of transport in modern conditions. Priority directions of the development of transport (on an example of a railway) in Russia have been given based on the positions of their connection to world trends.     

The population of Denmark, 1660–1960

Abstract

The most important sources for the study of population trends in Denmark from 1660 to 1801 are the somewhat crude but fairly well preserved Census of Peasants¹ (compiled in the autumn of 1660), the incomplete census of 1769,² and the very reliable population census of 1801.³ If the reliability of the first two of these censuses can be evaluated and their defects remedied, it ought to be possible to verify the pattern of demographic development in the intervening period parish by parish, herred by herred or province by province, by reference to parish registers and records of births and deaths. For it may be assumed that the aggregate growth of the kingdom's population did not significantly exceed the aggregate excess of births over deaths.     

Tourism impact,distribution and development: The spatial structure of tourism in the Western Cape province of South Africa

The structural dimensions of a country's tourism sector, and in particular the spatial structure of tourism production and consumption, relate closely to the nature and extent of the impact that tourism can have. This article examines the spatial characteristics of tourism in the Western Cape province, one of South Africa's foremost international tourist regions, and where its government seeks to use tourism as an instrument of development and socio-economic transformation. To understand how this could be effected it is necessary to understand the spatial distributional effects of tourism, and the underlying reasons for it. To this end the article examines the spatial structure of the provincial accommodation sector as evidenced in patterns of accommodation supply and tourist usage (demand); and trends in the nature, direction and distribution of public and private-sector tourism investments. The central argument is that tourism is geographically focused, with tourist activities concentrated in a few locales and sub-regions. This follows the general demographic and economic contours of the province. Yet trends in capital investments tend to reinforce the spatial concentration of tourism. Attempts by the government to spread tourism's benefits have not been too successful due to institutional and capacity deficiencies. Greater emphasis should be placed on developing domestic tourism.     

Demographic trends in late-slavery Jamaica, 1817–32

Early nineteenth-century demographic trends on sugar estates in Jamaica, the most important British Caribbean colony, are examined through the 1817–32 public slave registers. We seek evidence regarding the background to the island's 1831–2 popular insurrection, the immediate cause of the London parliament's vote in 1833 to abolish colonial slavery. Some historians argue that the revolt occurred as ‘political’ effect from a sudden upsurge of metropolitan anti-slavery activism in 1830–1. They believe the uprising broke out despite improvement in enslaved people's material welfare, favoured by many slaveholders to secure population increase after the closure of the British transatlantic slave trade in 1808. Alternative ‘economic’ assessments judge that increasing workloads had been aggravating popular unrest before the revolt. Commercial pressures, and the imminent likelihood of emancipation, allegedly outweighed welfare concerns. The excess of slave deaths over births widened between 1817 and 1832. However, the registers show that demographic deficits resulted mainly from the ageing of the last Africa-born cohorts. Jamaica-born enslaved people became self-reproducing. There was no general pre-1831 regime deterioration. Most slaveholders sought to maintain their Jamaican assets for the long term through pro-natalist measures, and did not expect emancipation. The revolt's causes were thus more ‘political’ than ‘economic’.     

Productivity in the Global Value Chain World

This article is adapted from the 2019: William S. Vickrey Distinguished Address I was invited to deliver at the International Atlantic Economic Conference in Miami, October 19, 2019. It explores three significant and interconnected global factors that are projected to shape the future of labor and productivity. Among these three identified factors are the emergence of enhanced labor hours through the development of artificial intelligence, the restructuring of population demographics and labor forces, and the integration of global value chains. The individual and interconnected effects of these three factors are illustrated through the use of artificially intelligent “autocoders” in the Office of Safety, Health, and Working Conditions at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, current and projected demographic shifts in the Japanese labor force, and the impact of global value chain production in the Chinese automobile industry. Although the long-run impact of these global trends is unknown, it is evident that as a general rule and in the aggregate, national economies will find opportunities to increase productivity as they embrace enhanced labor in the workplace and integrate global networks of value creation that span borders and industries.