Quantitative Assessment of U.S. Wheat Performance for Quality Characteristics

Quality of U. S. grain exports has been a contentious issue over the past decade. Nowhere is the issue more hotly debated than for wheat. At the core of the debate has been the ability of Canada to command a premium for its wheat in foreign markets. Buyers' perceptions of quality have been suggested as an explanation, but empirical evidence on the quality attributes responsible for this country-of-origin premium has been limited to hedonic pricing studies. This paper quantifies purchasers' perceptions of the relative importance of quality characteristics for the world's major importing countries. This is done by calculating three indices. The attainment index measures how well buyers' perceptions of the importance of the characteristic matches buyers' perceptions of how well it is being supplied. The supply index measures buyers' perceptions on how well a characteristic is being supplied. The demand index measures how important the buyers perceive a particular characteristic to be. Then buyers' perceptions of the performance of U.S. and Canadian wheats are evaluated, given the perceived importance of each characteristic, and related to previous empirical results. Finally, these results are compared for alternative groupings of importing countries.     

Identifying Strategies to Mitigate Handling Risks in the Canadian Grain Supply Chain

The introduction of new generation agricultural products has generated an increased need for efficient and accurate product segregation across a number of Canadian agricultural sectors. As a key component of wheat handling in the Canadian grain industry, grading of wheat for value‐added blending has historically been accomplished by visual identification. As of 2008 in Canada, visual identification was eliminated for all primary classes of wheat and replaced by an alternative system of wheat declaration. Given the high costs of testing each truck and railcar for quality assurance, the declaration system must rely on incentives and trust as there is now considerable potential for accidental or opportunistic misrepresentation throughout the grain supply chain. This research attempts to identify cost‐effective handling strategies and policies so as to maintain the integrity of the supply chain under the new declaration system. An agent‐based simulation model is developed to capture the effects of individual heterogeneity as well as behavioral adaption to the declaration system within the modern wheat supply chain. The simulated results are used to identify superior testing strategies for handlers, along with the relative risks and costs associated with each of the testing strategies.     

An econometric analysis of U.S. vital wheat gluten imports

In light of the wheat wet milling industry's development in the E.C. and of the prominent role U.S imports play in the international market for wheat gluten, this paper discusses the international market for wheat gluten, an important component of processed grain products. An econometric analysis of the U.S. import demand for wheat gluten is undertaken. The price of flour, income, and the U.S. value of wheat protein are found to be important determinants of wheat gluten imports.     

Evolving Supply Chains in the Nutraceuticals and Functional Foods Industry

The rapid growth of the nutraceutical and functional foods industry in recent years has necessitated the development of new supply chain relationships. These supply chains are interesting because of the uncertain regulatory, technological and market environment in which they have evolved. Challenges include concentration in upstream input supply and downstream manufacturing sectors, intellectual property rights protection, asset specific investments in an uncertain market environment, and establishing credible quality signals for credence attributes in an era of regulatory uncertainty and consumer scepticism.     

Grades/Classes of Hard Wheats Exported from North America: Analysis of Growth and Market Segments

Issues about grain quality are integral to export demand and competition. In the past, debate focused on wheat class and country of origin. This study analyzed changes in imports for wheat grades and classes for hard wheats in Canada and the United States. Clustering techniques were utilized to examine importer behavior and identify market segments for characteristics of U.S. wheats over time. Shifts in marketing toward shipment of specific classes and from lower to higher grades were identified. Cluster analysis indicated changes in composition and an increase in the number of market segments.     

The Wheat War of 1994

Following the signing of the 1989 Canada–United States Free Trade Agreement, sales of Canadian wheat to the United States grew rapidly. This resulted in a series of trade disputes, culminating in an investigation by the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) into the impacts of U.S. imports of Canadian wheat on the U.S. wheat farm program. A USITC finding of "material interference" would have led to a recommendation to implement tariffs or quantitative restrictions against Canadian wheat under Section 22 of the U.S. farm program legislation. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) claimed such material interference, but the U.S. flour millers, pasta makers and grain handlers, along with Canadian grain industry interests, testified that the true effects of imports are in the order of one–tenth of the effects claimed by the USDA. USITC staff analysis led to intermediate estimates of effects. This study explores the impacts of Canada–U.S. wheat trade on U.S. wheat prices and program costs, explains some of the differences in measured effects, and reports the outcome of the dispute.     

Estimating Market Power by Retailers in a Dynamic Framework: the Italian PDO Cheese Market

In this article, we evaluate the role of market power by retailers within the supply chain of Parmigiano Reggiano (PR) and Grana Padano (GP), the two most famous Italian quality cheeses. Market power is analysed in the context of a dynamic imperfect competition model of the supply chain, in which retailers are allowed to exert market power both downstream and upstream. We jointly estimate market‐power parameters together with supply and demand elasticities, by means of a structural system of demand, supply and price‐transmission equations, estimated using the generalised method of moments. We find evidence of downstream market power by retailers (toward final consumers) for PR and GP, but no evidence of upstream market power (toward processors/ripeners). These results may be explained by the structure of the supply chain and by the peculiar characteristics of the two cheeses.     

Quality Uncertainty, Procurement Strategies, and Grain Merchandising Risk: Vomitoxin in Spring Wheat

This study analyzes implications of a random quality factor, vomitoxin, on spatial flows and merchandising risk. Vomitoxin poses major risks for grain traders because of contract specifications, regulatory limits, sampling difficulties, and imprecise measurement. The effect of these were analyzed using crop quality and market data for the U.S. spring wheat crop, which has been severely affected by vomitoxin infestations during the 1990s. The analysis was structured as a blending problem with the objective of maximizing the net value of wheat sales. Relationships among market price spreads and contract specifications are interesting and their effects are demonstrated through simulations.     

Can the U.S. ethanol industry compete in the alternative fuels market?

The U.S. ethanol fuel industry has experienced preferential treatment from federal and state governments ever since the Energy Tax Act of 1978 exempted 10% ethanol/gasoline blend (gasohol) from the federal excise tax. Combined with a 54c/ /gal ethanol import tariff, this exemption was designed to provide incentives for the establishment and development of a U.S. ethanol industry. Despite these tax exemptions, until recently, the U.S. ethanol fuel industry was unable to expand from a limited regional market. Ethanol was dominated in the market by MTBE (methyl‐tertiary‐butyl ether). Only after MTBE was found to contaminate groundwater and consequently banned in many states did the demand for ethanol expand nationally. Limit pricing on the part of MTBE refiners is one hypothesis that may explain this lack of ethanol entry into the fuel‐additives market. As a test of this hypothesis, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model of the ethanol fuel market is developed. The results support the hypothesis of limit‐pricing behavior on the part of MTBE refiners, and suggest the U.S. corn‐based ethanol industry is vulnerable to limit‐price competition, which could recur. The dependence of the corn‐based ethanol price on supply determinants limits U.S. ethanol refiners' ability to price compete with sugar‐cane‐based ethanol refiners. Without federal support, U.S. ethanol refiners may find it difficult to compete with cheaper sugar‐cane‐refined ethanol, chiefly from Brazil.     

A Price Analysis of U.S. Agricultural Exports in East Asian Markets

This paper examines the price competition between U.S. agricultural exports and that of its competitors in East Asia. The results show weak price competition in Japan's corn and soybean markets, and no price competition in the wheat market. U.S. cotton exports to Japan face strong price competition. In Hong Kong, U.S. market shares are low, while the demand for its rice, corn, soybeans and cotton is elastic. For South Korea and Taiwan, improved political relationships between China, South Korea, and Taiwan have caused the U.S. to lose market shares to China.     

Quarterly Dynamic Relationships Between the U.S. Wheat Market and Wheat-Related Prices for Products Downstream

Abstract

A quarterly VA R econometric model of the reduced form relationships between the U.S. wheat market and prices of processed wheat-related flour, bread, and other bakery products downstream was estimated. The model then simulated under a rise in production- or import-induced increase in wheat quantity, and a decline in wheat price, to examine the dynamic effects on the U.S. wheat market and on processed wheat-related prices downstream. U.S. trade negotiators at the upcoming WTO agricultural round, Federal policy makers, farmers, and agribusiness agents should be interested in the dynamic patterns with which negotiated trade conditions, farm policy alterations, and climatic variation influence wheat quantity and price, and in turn the price of more highly processed wheat-based products downstream.     

The Market Structure and Price Competition in China's Wheat Import Market:

This paper reveals that wheat exporters to China compete in an imperfectly competitive market. U.S. wheat exports face strong price competition from Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Community, but has a highly elastic demand in China. By adopting an aggressive promotion policy, the U.S. could reduce the market shares of Argentina and Canada. China would shift to wheat from Argentina, Australia, and Canada if U.S. wheat exports were interrupted because of high prices or non-price trade frictions. An expansion in China's wheat imports would accrue to wheat from Argentina and the U.S.     

Assessing the U.S. Market Economics for a Cultured Flounder,Paralichthys sp., Industry

There is considerable interest in the culture of flounder because of its high retail market value, the established worldwide market for flatfish, and the ability of flounder to grow in fresh or brackish water. The author assesses the U.S. market potential for a cultured flounder, Paralichthys sp., industry. Regression analyses were used to estimate both the price and income elasticity of demand for flounder. Demand forecasting was used to predict effective annual future demand for flounder. Although the U.S. flounder market is large and expanding, there are indications of excess supply suppressing prices below profitable levels for aquaculture producers. Demand is price inelastic, so an increase in supply from aquaculture production will produce a disproportionately large decrease in price, reducing total producer revenue. Unless niche markets are targeted or an export market is developed, the outlook for large-scale flounder aquaculture in the United States is not economically promising.     

Econometric Examination of U.S. Potato-Related Market Relationships

Abstract

Modeling results, from a U.S. International Trade Commission investigation, that illuminate potato-related competitive conditions, particularly U.S. market impacts of potato imports, are presented. Estimation and simulation results of a monthJy vector autoregression model of the U.S. fresh and frozen trench fry markets suggest that the own-price elasticity of fresh table potato demand is more moderately elastic than previously thought; that U.S. fresh potato and trench fry markets only modestly interact, because the fresh table market residually and infrequently supplies raw product to processors; and that increased U.S. imports of fresh Canadian potatoes are likely a regional problem in Northeast U.S. markets, and do not appreciably influence potato-related prices or quantities nationally. Given the scarce potato-related literature, the model's estimated market parameters arc of interest.     

美国农地保护方法及其借鉴

研究目的：探讨美国农地保护方法及其对中国的借鉴。研究方法：逻辑分析，对比分析。研究结果：中国现行农地保护政策存在不足。美国农地保护的启示：（1）农地保护目标应包括保证粮食安全、农业产业发展、环境、城乡土地的合理利用，实现数量、质量、生态的综合保护；（2）发挥中央政府、地方政府、农地保护组织和农民的主体作用，促进农地的保护和保持；（3）完善法规调控体系，改革政府参与方式，减少土地套利，完善市场配套设施、引入市场激励机制，根据地区资源和经济发展情况实行差异化方法。研究结论：美国农地保护目标、管理体系及具体方法等对中国有借鉴作用。     

A Note on the Market Valuation of Grain Quality Characteristics

The issue addressed in this paper is whether the grain quality factors used by the Federal Grain Inspection Service in determining the quality grades of wheat exported by the United States including test weight, dockage, moisture content, percentage of foreign material, percentage of shrunken and broken kernels, and protein content are characteristics that influence the price of wheat for export. Using shiplot data on the transactions price for hard red winter wheat, hard red spring wheat, and soft white wheat and the associated quality characteristics covering the period January 1990 through October 1991 and exported to 63 countries, the results suggest that only the test weight and the protein content are characteristics consistently valued by the market.     

全球化危机视角下中国木本粮油产业发展面临的挑战与应对策略

近年来,受世界局势尤其是国际关系格局变化影响,世界粮食与食用油市场发生深刻变化.文章对中国粮油供给与市场消费情况进行了分析,预测未来中国木本粮油产业可能面临种植面积发生区域性减少、市场短时间出现疲软的风险,并提出了"开源—节流"的应对方式,建议挖掘核桃等木本油料树种产能潜力,提升木本粮油产量与质量,通过收储及加工环节技...     

Consumer Willingness to Pay for Cue Attribute: The Value Beyond Its Own

Using Certified U.S. Product as a product cue, we show that consumer willingness to pay for other identifiable search and experience attributes change. Certified U.S. Product serves as a substitute for Guaranteed Tender and a complement of Guaranteed Lean. Results have important implications for policymakers and food companies interested in food labeling programs in the presence of cue attributes such as Certified U.S. Product. The substitute effects of a cue attribute on other product attributes may contribute to deteriorating product quality and the complement effects of a cue attribute could improve product quality in the market.     

新一轮国际粮食价格上涨：原因及对中国市场的影响

目的 随着中国粮食进口不断增加,国内外市场联系越来越紧密。2020年下半年以来,国际市场粮食价格快速上涨,对国内粮食市场产生一定影响,分析国际市场价格上涨的原因和影响对确保国内粮食供应稳定、保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。方法 文章分析了2019年以来小麦、大米、玉米、大豆4种粮食产品的国内外价格走势,从供需状况、贸易政策、气候变化等因素分析国际市场价格波动的原因,并探讨了国际价格对国内价格的影响。结果 当前全球主要粮食品种供应充足,库存仍处于较高水平,此轮国际粮食价格上涨主要是受到美国等发达国家宽松的货币政策以及疫情后全球消费逐步回暖的影响;但国际市场价格上涨对中国市场的影响总体有限,国内小麦、大米、玉米价格上涨的主因是国内消费回暖和生猪产能恢复带动的饲用需求快速增长,油用大豆受国际市场的影响较大。结论 为稳定国内粮食市场,避免国际市场的冲击,中国要进一步提升粮食综合生产能力,强化科技支撑,加强粮食储备管理,健全政策支持体系,并引导居民建立科学的消费观念。     

Livestock Identification

Abstract

An array of concerns about animal health, potential bio-terrorism, food safety, international trade, consumer demand for credence attributes, and improving supply chain management are igniting unprecedented change in the international meat and livestock market. One noteworthy development is accelerated advancement of national individual animal identification programs. This study reviews how these systems work and what motivates animal traceback system implementation. A case study approach is used to overview an extensive system currently being used and developed in Australia. Based upon the Australian experience, we present recommendations for pending U.S. animal identification systems.