Sources of Business Cycles in a Low Income Country

We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks, including productivity, credit supply and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks using a combination of sign and recursive restrictions within Bayesian vector autoregressive models. As a benchmark we provide results for South Africa to document the difference between two economies with similar structures but at different stages of development. We find that global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana. These shocks operate through three channels: trade, credit and commodity prices.     

Macroeconomic Uncertainty,Fund Demand and Corporate Investment

Using a unique set of data on fund use by China’s listed companies, this paper examines how macroeconomic uncertainty works on corporate investment. The study shows that macroeconomic uncertainty affects corporate investment behavior through the three channels of external demand, liquidity demand and long-term fund demand. However, the result is influenced by expectations and can differ across firms depending on their economic cycle, shareholder character, industrial character and the financial constraints they are exposed to. Specifically, high macroeconomic uncertainty can weaken the positive roles of these channels, especially those of external demand and liquidity demand, in driving corporate investment. During economic upturns, the effect of these channels is the most evident among state-owned firms, manufacturing firms and low cash dividend firms. The lessons from this study are that macroeconomic policies should be leveraged taking account of the channels through which economic shocks find their way, and monetary policies have to be implemented by targeting microscopic fund demand.     

News shocks and labour market dynamics in matching models

We enrich a baseline real business cycle (RBC) model with search and matching frictions on the labour market and real frictions that are helpful in accounting for the response of macroeconomic aggregates to shocks. The analysis allows shocks to have an unanticipated and a news (i.e., anticipated) component. The Bayesian estimation of the model reveals that the model that includes news shocks on macroeconomic aggregates produces a remarkable fit of the data. News shocks in stationary and non‐stationary TFP, investment‐specific productivity and preference shocks significantly affect labour market variables and explain a sizeable fraction of macroeconomic fluctuations at medium‐ and long‐run horizons. Historically, news shocks have played a relevant role for output, but they have had a limited influence on unemployment.     

Unemployment dynamics in emerging countries: Monetary policy and external shocks

This paper quantifies the impact of three key external shocks – external demand, interest rate, and uncertainty shocks – on emerging market economies (EMEs). We find that external shocks have a sizeable impact on macroeconomic fluctuations in EMEs and that a considerable fraction of this impact is through the domestic stock market. A decrease in external demand and an increase in external interest rate and uncertainty lead to a higher unemployment rate, lower stock market return, and a depreciation of the domestic currency. The EMEs' monetary policy actively responds to external shocks and dampens their impact on domestic activity.     

Do tax cuts generate twin deficits? A multi‐country analysis

Abstract We study the effects of tax shocks on the budget and external deficits for 16 industrialized countries over the post‐1970 period. Our structural approach is based on a small open economy model where a tax cut affects the external deficit by two distinct channels. The demographic channel works through the overlapping‐generation structure of the model. The forecasting channel works through the dynamic structure of the model. Our empirical analysis documents that tax shocks generate twin deficits, and that both channels play important roles in explaining the positive comovement between the budget and external deficits.     

Monetary transmission mechanisms in a small open economy: a Bayesian structural VAR approach

Abstract This paper develops a Bayesian structural VAR model for Canada in order to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks, using the overnight rate target as the policy instrument. I allow the policy variable and other home and foreign variables to interact with each other contemporaneously. The key finding is that monetary policy affects the real economy through both the market interest rate and the exchange rate. I also find that the Bank of Canada responds to any home and foreign variables that embodies information about future inflation and that external shocks are an important source of output fluctuations.     

Monetary transmission mechanism and time variation in the Euro area

This paper examines the monetary transmission mechanism in the Euro area (EA) for the period of single monetary policy using factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) techniques. The aims of the paper are threefold. First, a novel dataset consisting of 120 disaggregated macroeconomic time series spanning the period 1999:M1 through 2011:M12 is gathered for the EA as an aggregate. Second, a Bayesian joint estimation technique of the FAVAR approach is applied to the European data in order to investigate the impacts of monetary policy shocks on the economy. Third, time variation in the transmission mechanism and the impact of the global financial crisis are investigated in the FAVAR context using a rolling windows technique. We find that there are considerable gains from the implementation of the Bayesian technique such as smoother impulse response functions and statistical significance of the estimates. According to our rolling estimations, consumer prices and monetary aggregates display the most time-variant responses to the monetary policy shocks in the EA.     

Stylized facts on nominal term structure and business cycles: an empirical VAR study

This paper examines the importance of various macroeconomic shocks in explaining the movement of the term structure of nominal bond yields in the post-war USA, as well as the channels through which such macro-shocks influence the yield curve, using a structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The results show that the monetary-policy and the aggregate-supply shocks are important determinants of the nominal term structure. Moreover, the monetary-policy innovations have a large but transitory effect on the nominal bond yields, primarily by changing the slope of the yield curve, and the aggregate-supply shocks from private sector have a more persistent effect on the level of the yield curve, but have little effect on the slope of the yield curve.     

Macroeconomic relevance of credit channels: Evidence from an emerging economy under inflation targeting

This article presents a contribution to the empirical literature concerning credit channels in emerging economies. Based on data from 2002 to 2009, three sets of GMM models are considered in this article for analyzing the macroeconomic relevance of the credit channels in Brazil: (i) the first set analyzes the effects of shocks on economic variables which are essential for credit supply; (ii) the second set considers the effects of the same variables used in the previous case on credit spread; and (iii) the third set takes into account the effects of changes in the credit market conditions on the product. In addition, with the intention of showing the effects of shocks on the variables which are relevant in the GMM models for credit supply, spread, and product, a VAR analysis is made. Finally, with the objective of testing the results, a GMM system model is built. The findings denote that the effects of economic shocks on credit supply and on credit spread are in accordance with the credit channel theory. In particular, it is observed that shocks on the interest rate are not transmitted directly to the economy but through the credit channels.     

Inequality and the business cycle: evidence from U.S. survey data

ABSTRACT

We study the effects of macroeconomic shocks on measures of economic inequality obtained from U.S. survey data. To identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and monetary policy shocks, we estimate vector autoregressions and impose sign and zero restrictions on impulse response functions. We find that the effects of the macroeconomic shocks on inequality depend on the type of shock as well as on the measure of inequality considered. Contractionary monetary policy shocks increase expenditure and consumption inequality, whereas income and earnings inequality are less affected. Adverse aggregate supply and demand shocks increase income and earnings inequality, but reduce expenditure and consumption inequality. Our results suggest that different channels dominate in the transmission of the shocks. The earnings heterogeneity channel is consistent with the inequality dynamics after monetary policy shocks, but it appears to be less crucial when the economy is hit by either aggregate supply or aggregate demand shocks. Using variance decompositions, we find that although the macroeconomic shocks account for large shares of the variation in the macroeconomic variables, their contributions to the dynamics of the inequality measures are limited.     

The sovereign spread in Asian emerging economies: The significance of external versus internal factors

This paper investigates the dynamic relations between external factors, domestic macroeconomic factors with sovereign spreads, debt to GDP ratio, etc. in Asian emerging countries. First, we develop a theoretical model that determines the equilibrium debt level, probability of default and sovereign spread and draw empirical implications. We then employ a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to investigate empirically how the spread of sovereign debt is influenced over time by both external and domestic factors. The empirical results show that variations in sovereign spreads are mainly driven by external shocks, with the term structure of US interest rate and the global risk aversion having the most important role. The findings also indicate that shocks from the US have a direct effect on sovereign spread and an indirect effect via domestic macroeconomic fundamentals. Finally, the evidence produced validates the presence of some response patterns of sovereign spread to the external shocks.     

The effects of economic policy uncertainty on China’s economy: evidence from time-varying parameter FAVAR

ABSTRACT

This article explores the effects of China’s economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on its fiscal policy, monetary policy and a wide range of macro-economic variables using a time-varying parameter FAVAR model. Based on monthly data from 07/2003 to 08/2017, the time-varying structure of the model allows us to capture the time-varying characteristics of the macro-economic variables and which channel is relevant. Empirical results reveal that the reaction of monetary and fiscal policies to EPU is highly asymmetric across macro-economic circumstances. Loose monetary and fiscal policies are adopted in response to EPU shocks during the financial crisis, while policies are moderately tightened after the crisis. The China Interbank Offered Rate (Chibor) responds more sensitively and severely than M2 to EPU shocks. Additionally, EPU shocks have a significant and negative impact on economic growth, consumption, exchange rates, bonds and the stock market, but showing a positive impact on credit, real estate and fixed asset investment (which might be due to China’s special economic market environment and the high investment return). The results indicate that EPU shocks significantly affect macroeconomic fundamentals through precautionary savings and financial market channels but lose their effectiveness through a ‘real options’ effect.     

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets; (iv) use quarterly data; and (v) analyse empirical evidence from the US, the UK, Germany and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP); lead to important ‘crowding-out’ effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices. Government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices. The empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model.     

The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Bangladesh: A Bayesian Structural VAR Approach

This paper develops a Bayesian structural VAR model for Bangladesh in a small-open-economy context in order to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks on various macroeconomic variables. To increase the precision of the model identification, we allow the macroeconomic variables of the model to interact simultaneously with each other. This paper finds that the liquidity effect and the exchange-rate effect of the monetary policy shock are realized immediately, while industrial production responds with a lag of over half a year, and the inflation rate responds with a lag of more than one year. I also find that monetary policy shocks are not the dominant source of industrial production fluctuations in Bangladesh.     

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area

Abstract. This paper analyzes the dynamic response of loans to the private sector and of economic activity to aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in Germany and the euro area based on a standard macroeconomic VAR using sign restrictions to identify the structural shocks. The main results of this analysis are that (i) with the exception of the response to the supply shock in Germany, the response of loans to the three macroeconomic shocks is rather weak and in most cases insignificant; (ii) the 2000–05 credit slowdown and weak economic performance in Germany were primarily driven by adverse supply shocks; and (iii) the marked slowdown in credit creation in Germany over this period actually represents a realignment of the outstanding stock of loans with its deterministic level. In order to assess the role of bank lending in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks, we further perform counterfactual simulations and analyze the dynamic responses of German loan subaggregates in order to test the distributional implications of potential credit market frictions. These exercises do not indicate that credit market frictions play an amplifying role in the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations.     

Potential Contagion Effects on OECD Countries: A FAVAR Model under Bayesian Framework

This paper studies whether and how US shocks impact the OECD countries in the case of a simulated crisis. Using Bayesian estimation methods we extract constrained factors (global, country and variable type specific) from a sample of 153 economic and financial OECD variables from 1980–2008. These factors are the transmission channels through which national shocks spread to other countries, as in a pandemic. The Bayesian interpretable factors are used to estimate FAVAR models. Our main findings suggest that differences exist in the contagion effects. This implies that no generalizations can be made for OECD countries even of equal economic size and in the same geographic region. In addition, our results show that a large portion of the variance of domestic economic variables is explained by global factors; and that the interest rate shock appears to play an important role in the spillover mechanism from the United States to the rest of the world. More precisely, Australia, the United Kingdom and Scandinavian countries appear to be most sensitive to the US shocks.     

A general equilibrium assessment of external and domestic shocks in Spain

After many years of growth, the Spanish economy plunged into the most severe and prolonged recession recorded since reliable national accounts data have been available. The main goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of the external and domestic shocks that hit the Spanish economy in 2008–2009 by employing a disaggregated general equilibrium model calibrated to a 2000 SAM elaborated by the authors. External shocks are simulated by employing the neoclassical closure (private investment is determined by domestic and external savings) and the Keynesian closure (investment is exogenous). External and domestic shocks are also jointly simulated with the Keynesian closure. The results provide a good approximation to observed changes in key macroeconomic variables.     

Automatic stabilizers, fiscal rules and macroeconomic stability

This paper analyzes the effect of the fiscal structure upon the trade-off between inflation and output stabilization induced by technological shocks in a DGE model with nominal and real rigidities that also integrates a rich menu of fiscal variables as well as a target on the debt to output ratio. The channels through which fiscal policy affects macroeconomic stability include supply-side effects of distortionary taxes, the procyclical behavior of public spending induced by fiscal rules and the conventional effect of automatic stabilizers operating through disposable (permanent) income. The paper investigates these channels and concludes that, contrary to what has been found in RBC models, distortionary taxes tend to reduce output volatility relative to lump-sum taxes when significant rigidities are present. We also study the stabilization effect of alternative (distortionary) tax structures and find that these are only relevant if substantial rigidities are present.     

Macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns: the case of Korea

This study examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on key macro variables, including stock market returns in Korea, using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. We suggest a three-variable SVAR model incorporating inflation, output growth and stock returns. We adopt a nonzero z-ratio restriction for the long-run identifying assumption to allow for economically meaningful relationships among variables. While our results support the negative (positive) relation of demand (supply) shocks to stock returns, we also find that demand shocks influence stock market variance more significantly than supply shocks do. The sub-period analysis finds that global market fluctuations during the global financial crisis have relatively little effect on Korean stock market performance. We also examine a generalized five-variable model that includes the foreign exchange rate and interest rate, confirming the results from the three-variable case.     

Sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in China

This paper reviews the evolution of China's real effective exchange rate between 1980 and 2003 and uses a structural vector autoregression model to study the relative importance of different types of macroeconomic shocks for fluctuations in the real exchange rate between 1985 and 2003. The structural decomposition shows that relative real demand and supply shocks account for most of the variations in real exchange rate changes during the estimation period. The paper also finds that supply shocks are at least as important as nominal demand shocks in accounting for real exchange rate fluctuations. In contrast, other studies that show that nominal shocks are more important in explaining real exchange rate fluctuations in industrial countries. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 753–771.