Amenity‐Based Housing Affordability Indexes

The recent slump notwithstanding, substantial increases in house prices in many parts of the United States have served to highlight housing affordability for moderate‐income households, especially in high‐cost, supply‐constrained coastal cities such as Boston. In this article, we develop a new measure of area affordability that characterizes the supply of housing that is affordable to different households in different locations of a metropolitan region. Key to our approach is the explicit recognition that the price/rent of a dwelling is affected by its location. Hence, we develop an affordability methodology that accounts for job accessibility, school quality and safety. This allows us to produce a menu of town‐level indexes of adjusted housing affordability. The adjustments are based on obtaining implicit prices of these amenities from a hedonic price equation. We thus use data from a wide variety of sources to rank 141 towns in the greater Boston metropolitan area based on their adjusted affordability. Taking households earning 80% of area median income as an example, we find that consideration of town‐level amenities leads to major changes relative to a typical assessment of affordability.     

Who benefits the most? Risk pooling in mortgage loan insurance: Evidence from the Canadian mortgage market

This article evaluates the effect of mortgage loan insurance (MLI), an essential macroprudential tool available to policy makers, on housing affordability, household leverage, and the overall welfare of the economy. A dynamic model of the housing market with heterogeneous households and competitive housing and mortgage markets is constructed and is calibrated to Canadian data. We find that relaxing the mandatory nature of MLI required for mortgages with a loan-to-value ratio of 80% or more, in favor of a counterfactual system where MLI reflects credit risks, dampens demand for housing to purchase and puts downward pressure on house prices. Some of the households with low income and low asset holdings can no longer afford a house; therefore, the aggregate homeownership rate drops. In contrast, demand for rental units increases and rents go up.     

Indicators of Local Housing Affordability: Comparative and Spatial Approaches

This paper focuses on the measurement of local housing affordability problems. A number of different housing market indicators are offered that help identify the magnitude and nature of housing affordability problems and their geographic distribution. This interest is prompted by the predominance of housing affordability problems and the severity of the problems for many of the lowest income renter households. In addition, there is significant policy interest in "the national goal that every American family be able to afford a decent home in a suitable environment" (National Affordable Housing Act of 1990). This paper develops measures of the spatial distribution of affordability problems and implements measures of the mismatch between the demand and supply of housing affordable to the lowest income households.     

New Home Affordability, Equity, and Housing Market Behavior

Recent analyses have reported quite different estimates of the percentage of American families who can afford to buy new homes. However, the differences in the levels of affordability have obscured two more important similarities between the studies: most measures of affordability are closely correlated over time, and none correlate at all with what in fact is occurring in the housing market. One important reason for the latter phenomenon is that affordability measures concentrate on income and ignore wealth. Newly available data from the Annual Housing Survey makes it possible to estimate the equity of current homeowners, which is one important component of wealth. With this data, it is possible to compute a new measure of affordability, which more closely corresponds to the actual market behavior of households. This new measure shows a much higher level of affordability than those previously published, and also shows that young families, who have been the subject of particular concern among housing policy-makers, appear to be slightly better off in the housing market than older families.     

Housing Rental Contracts and Adverse Selection with an Application to the Rent-Own Decision

A model of rental housing is developed in which landlords cannot observe the utilization rate of their tenants. As a result of this imperfect information, an adverse selection problem exists where high utilization households have an incentive to conceal their type in order to obtain more favorable contract terms. Consequently, the market equilibrium must satisfy a self-selection constraint, which imposes certain restrictions on the set of contracts that will be offered by landlords. These restrictions are examined in detail, and their implications for a household's decision to rent or own its housing are derived.     

How Well Do Section 8 FMRs (Fair Market Rent) Match the Cost of Rental Housing? Data from Thirty-Nine Large Cities

The FMR (Fair Market Rent) idea was built into the Section 8 lower income rental assistance program to provide a means to reflect variations in the rental cost of comparable housing in different market areas and also rental cost differences within a market area due to size variations in housing units. Does the FMR schedule for the Section 8 Existing Housing Program parallel the actual differences in the rents of comparable housing among metropolitan areas? We find the 1975 schedule fulfills some of the criteria for an efficient and equitable Section 8 Existing Housing Program but not all.     

Housing Costs and the Elderly

Estimates are made of changes in average housing costs and average family incomes for non-moving elderly homeowners and renters over the period 1972–80. Findings suggest that: rental costs are higher in each time period than are homeownership costs; evidence of serious deterioration in affordability of housing is weak, when looking at aggregate price/income ratios; and it is clear that elderly renters are more seriously disadvantaged in housing affordability than are elderly homeowners at every time period.     

Rates of Return on Housing of Low-and Moderate-Income Owners

While long-term returns to capital invested in owner-occupied housing have been competitive with other investment alternatives, no evidence exists on the market performance of the owner-occupied housing in which low- and moderate-income households would be most likely to invest. This article thus attempts to answer the question of whether the "affordable housing units" that are relevant to policy discussions concerning low- and moderate-income homeownership have experienced different rates of price appreciation than have higher valued dwellings. The national file of the American Housing Survey is used to estimate appreciation rates by value class in representative U.S. housing markets. We find that for the period 1974 through 1983 appreciation rates for lower valued housing were generally about equal to those for higher valued housing.     

Finnish Homes—Through Passages or Traps?

This is a study of tenure choice, housing demand and mobility in the submarkets of the Helsinki metropolitan area. The empirical analysis is based on data on households, type of tenure, housing characteristics and mobility for a sample of Helsinki residents at the end of 1980s. According to our results the probability of owning is affected not only by user costs of alternative tenure forms but also by permanent income and demographic variables. Results from the tenure specific housing demand models indicate that there are non-neutralities in the housing markets. Permanent income elasticities of housing demand are clearly positive in owner-occupied sector and systematically higher than in the rented sector. The demand for owner-occupied housing depends very strongly on the age of the household head. User cost per housing unit affects housing demand negatively in both tenure forms. Effective demand is greater in private housing sector. The results suggest that owner-occupied living is preferred with heavily subsidized households the least likely to move. In the rental sector, where the probability of moving is higher, it is also true that the most heavily subsidized households are the least likely to move.     

An Evaluation of Hedonic Price Indexes for Thirty-four Large SMSAs

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, a set of price indexes are developed for thirty-four metropolitan areas for the years 1975 and 1978. Indexes are also broken down by central city and suburb for twenty two of the metropolitan areas. These indexes measure variation in the price per unit of owner-occupied housing stock and the price per unit of housing services of rental housing. Confidence intervals are constructed for the price indexes. It is found that the indexes are reasonably precise measures in that the typical ratio of the confidence interval to the predicted median rent or value is about 13%. Also, analysis of the confidence intervals indicates substantial and statistically significant variation in the price of housing stock and services among the metropolitan areas studied. One of the major benefits of this set of indexes is that it can be used to address one of the most important questions in real estate — Why do housing prices and rents vary among metropolitan areas and over time? Research projects are currently underway that use the data to address these two questions.     

Personal Residential Real Estate Investment in Australia: Investor Characteristics and Investment Parameters

To date our understanding of the factors affecting the housing supply stem from the private provision of new units through real estate development. This article investigates a different aspect of housing supply, the private provision of rental housing through investment in existing properties. Using logistic regression and a series of micro data sets of Australian households, we examine the investment decision of residential rental property investors over the period 1990–2004. The sample period incorporates a full real estate cycle. Our results indicate that wealth-related factors are the dominant factors driving these investments. Life-cycle factors such as marriage and children play a less important role. Most of the determinants of income property investment do not vary with the property cycle. Marriage is an exception. It became more important as house prices rose.     

FHA Multifamily Financial Failure: A Review of Empirical Studies*

The FHA addresses the rental housing needs of low- and middle-income households through multifamily project mortgage insurance programs. These programs have been hindered, however, by substantial financial losses due to project default, assignments, and foreclosure. A review of existing empirical studies suggests that characteristics of project owners, the quality of project management, the adequacy of HUD screening, project construction, and project location all have an impact on financial viability. The results do not support claims that tenant characteristics are associated with failure. Although financial variables are closely related to failure, they are little used in the studies reviewed.     

住房保障改革目标：居者所有其屋

由于住房是居民的最主要财产，住房性收入是居民的最主要财产性收入，所以住房调节应是财产调节的重要途径，住房收入调节应是收入调节的重要措袍；让更多居民拥有自己的房产，是实现共同富裕的重要保障，是社会主义所有制的话要内容。使居民尽量拥有自有住房，需要抑制对住房的投资需求从而控制房价水平，把廉租房、公共租赁房和经济适用房制度改为政府为低收入家庭建房制度,发展住房合作组织和集资合作建房，解决好非户籍常住人口的住房问题。     

Condominium Conversion and the Tax Reform Acts of 1969 and 1976

Condominium conversions became a major factor in housing markets durig the 1970s. The analysis presented in this paper suggests that rental housing investors are in high marginal tax brackets and use rental housing tax losses to shelter other income. These characteristics imply that rental housing tax benefits are an important determinant of rental housing investment. The Tax Reform Act of 1969 and 1976 reduced rental housing tax benefits and may have provided an important stimulus for the condominium conversions of the 1970s. Tax and survey data confirm the predicted characteristics of rental-housing investors. Estimates of rental flows in Chicago from 1962 to 1977 indicate that the Tax Reform Act of 1969 and 1976 were possible causes of condominium conversions during the 1970s.     

The Reliability of Fair Housing Audits to Detect Racial Discrimination in Rental Housing Markets

Racial discrimination against black Americans continues to exert a pervasive influence on all aspects of American life. This paper investigates the reliability of two techniques currently used by local fair housing groups to measure the extent of racial discrimination in the rental housing market: in-person audits and telephone audits. When we do not control for the presence of vacancies, we observe a moderate rate of reliability between the in-person audits and the telephone audits. When we control for the presence of vacancies, we observe a much higher degree of reliability between the two methods used to detect racial discrimination in rental housing markets. We conclude that these techniques are useful devices to detect racial discrimination in housing markets.     

Inflation,Taxes, and the Demand For Housing*

Inflation affects homeownership and housing adversely through the “real-payment tilt” of the conventional mortgage. Expectations of additional housing price appreciation, however, may induce households to invest in housing. This paper uses household data to estimate the demand for homeownership and housing, and it takes explicit notice of expectations of housing price appreciation. The results indicate for each 1% increase in the inflation rate that the conditional probability of purchase falls by 3%. Interest rate effects outweigh appreciation and tax effects. Given the decision to purchase, housing appreciation expectations do not have large effects on the amount purchased.     

Another Look at the Economics of Demand-Side Versus Supply-Side Strategies in Low-Income Housing

This paper presents evidence of the relative efficiency of a particular variant of demand-side housing strategy vis-a-vis the supply-side Section 8 New Construction program. The model is cast explicitly in terms of theory of consumer behavior, allowing the estimation of price subsidy rates under the demand-side strategy, that would yield the same welfare improvement as the Section 8 program. The results indicate that neither the latter strategy nor the former clearly dominates in terms of traditional goals of low-income housing policy. The increases in housing consumption induced by the demand-side strategy, while less than those from the supply-side strategy, are significant, and are accompanied by substantial reductions in housing affordability problems (rent burdens). It is shown that anywhere from .63 to 2.16 additional households could have been served for each household served under the Section 8 program, with the demand-side strategy, at no additional cost to the taxpayer.     

Market Conditions and Housing Choices: A Comparison of Homeownership Across Three Decades

This article uses information on out‐of‐pocket housing cost and house price appreciation along with the geo‐coded version of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to consider the differences in the impact of these and other variables on the tenure choices of sample households across three time periods, the 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s. Specifically, an extended continuous time probability model is used to examine households' transitions from renting to owning and subsequent possible transitions either back to rental tenure or to another owned home during our three observation periods. Coefficient estimates show that financial variables such as house price appreciation and out‐of‐pocket housing cost play an important role in determining all the transitions. In addition, the analysis demonstrates the interesting result that the cumulative likelihoods of homeownership derived from the model are consistently lower than the probabilities of an initial transition to homeownership from rental tenure during the observation period. Finally, the magnitude and timing of the impact on homeownership of a policy experiment that eliminates the mortgage interest deduction are shown to differ substantially across the three decades.     

Multifamily Housing Demand: 1980–2000

Using Annual Housing Survey data on multifamily structure occupancy by household type for 1975, together with number of household projections from the Department of Agriculture, a gross level of multifamily housing demand is projected. Allowance is made for a 2 percent replacement rate of the total stock as well as a 5 percent vacancy figure for new household demand. Assuming that: (1) there is no massive shift away from one-family ownership to multifamily units, and (2) the present level of conversions from one-family units to multiple occupancy continues to offset the trend of conversion from rental multifamily units to condominium status, then total future demand for multifamily rental units is well within current construction levels.

• We are presently building one and one-half times the demand of 416,000 units per year projected for 1975–80.

• The demand from 1980 to 1990 decreases to 367,000 new units annually.

• This is further reduced to 335,000 units annually for the period 1990–2000.

The major determinants of future demand will focus on the scrap-page rate of extant facilities and the regional shifts of population.
The future supply of multifamily structures depends on an abatement of construction costs and interest rates, and/or massive levels of Government subsidy.
There is evidence that operating cost rises are challenging the financial integrity of multifamily structures. This is manifested by the HUD and private market mortgage delinquency and foreclosure rates.
Policy focus for the future should emphasize the minimization of both construction and operating costs rather than augmented delivery rates.     

Another Look at Tenure Choice, Inflation, and Taxes

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of inflation on the demand for housing. The first part of the paper presents a theoretical model that identifies the effects of inflation on the after-tax cost of housing and the choice between rental and owner-occupied housing. The second part discusses the results of a simulation model that measures the effect of inflation on the aggregate demand for housing, the aggregate homeownership rate, and the price of housing. The paper concludes that while inflation can be expected to increase the aggregate demand for housing and the price of housing relative to the general price level, inflation should ultimately lead to lower rates of homeownership. A corollary that is probably more relevant today is that lower inflation rates should reduce the real value of the housing stock and increase the homeownership rate. The paper also contains forecasts of the impact of the Tax Reform Act (TRA) of 1986 upon housing demand and the probability of homeownership for a variety of households.