经济新常态下我国农业政策转型研究

随着改革开放的不断深入,国家对农村地区经济发展越来越重视,农业政策已经成为农村经济发展的重要动力。随着我国经济进入新常态,农业发展面临着国内外农产品价格倒挂、财政支农政策分散、农产品价格波动风险加大等问题,为此,农产品价格形成机制、农业资源配置、农村金融政策等主要农业政策亟需转型,以使农业发展更好的适应经济发展新常态。     

从工农业价格指数分析我国经济运行趋势

本文对农业产品与工业产品之间的价格关系作了一个简要的分析,其中运用了数据与理论分析分别说明,农业产品价格变动会直接影响工业产品价格。进而在我国目前农业价格提高的政策下,对我国的通货情况进行了预测。     

“十三五”时期农产品价格支持政策改革的总体思路与建议

综合考虑过去10年我国农产品价格支持政策实际效果、先行国家类似发展阶段农业支持政策实践经验、"十三五"时期我国农业发展基本方向和农业支持政策空间等多种因素,重构"十三五"时期农产品价格支持政策体系的总体思路是:"价补统筹、水平适度,一品一策、精准发力,分步实施、央地分担"。     

我国农产品价格补贴支出政策评析

农产品价格补贴是我国多年以来采用的主要农业补贴方式,其目的主要是为了保护农民的利益,激发农民生产粮食的积极性,同时也是为了稳定物价,保证城镇居民的基本生活水平.本文运用回归模型对我国农业补贴政策效果进行了实证分析,得出的结论是:农产品价格补贴政策对增加农民收入,提高粮食产量的政策效果并不理想,但是其稳定粮食价格,保证居民生活水平起到了积极的作用.     

新时期国家粮食安全战略和政策的思考

近期全球农产品价格在大幅度波动中上涨和我国食品价格的持续上涨再次引发了国内外对食物和粮食安全的高度关注。本文在对我国当前粮食安全状况进行整体分析和对我国未来粮食安全判断的基础上,对新时期国家粮食安全的目标和战略及政策进行了分析,并提出了提高农业生产和保障我国粮食安全的战略与政策建议。     

潜在环境影响视角的美国、欧盟农业支持政策演进分析——基于OECD农业政策评估系统

中国农业面临发展方式的转变的挑战,亟需改革农业政策体系为农业绿色发展提供有效的政策支持。欧盟与美国在农业发展中同样经历了从片面追求产量向高效环保转变的过程,在转型过程中的政策调整和政策工具选择上积累了大量的经验,并具有一定的共性规律。本文以OECD政策评估系统投入限制政策标签为基础,对美国、欧盟农业政策及政策调整过程中的潜在环境影响进行了比较分析,发现两地区在农业支持政策的演进中,越来越重视政策的环境影响,主要通过强制性投入限制的政策方式,并且支持政策逐渐从资源退出向在用资源有效管理转变,但两地区均未改变市场价格支持的重要地位。本文最后从对中国的政策启示角度,提出了以强制性投入限制政策获取最低环境效益、注重市场价格支持措施、注重技术服务支持、补贴逐渐脱钩化等政策建议,为我国农业政策的转型与创新提供借鉴。     

转轨阶段我国农业政策的重要特征

本文分析了加入WTO之际我国农业政策呈现的转轨经济特征。结果表明，在转轨经济和加入WTO的制度背景下，我国现行农业政策的主要目标有时存在矛盾，手段比较单一，行政计划色彩较浓，负保护状态依然存在，边境措施的保护重点错位，政策实施对象的主体是巨量的小农户，粮棉政策变动频繁，政策的地区差异性突出，价格补贴沉淀在流通部门。准确把握它们，有助于深入洞察我国农业政策冲突点的分布及性质，为针对性地调整我国农业政策奠定基础。     

日本农业保护政策评析

随着我国经济发展水平的不断提高,对农业实行保护政策是农业政策调整的必然选择,这一点已经是发达国家经济发展实践所表明了的事实。然而,农业保护政策的实行会对农业发展以及整个经济生活产生什么影响,是我们进行农业政策设计时应该超前考虑到的。为此,本文分析日本农业的保护政策,以为我国农业保护政策的设计提供一种国际经验参考。 一、日本农业保护的手段 日本的农业保护程度以目前来讲在发达国家中是最高的,以名义保护率测定的农业保护程度在80年代中期达到200％以上,大大高于欧共体成员国及美国的水平。 日本农业的高程度保护是通过一系列政策手段实现的,主要有:边境保护、价格支持、投入补贴。     

农产品目标价格补贴制度改革的困局和破解之策

为了促进农业经济的发展,我国实行了农产品目标价格补贴政策,然而在现阶段还存在一定的理论分歧,而且在实际操作方面还存在较大的困难。在具体的农产品目标价格的补贴试点中还存在目标价格等级未区分的问题,市场价格不能真正反映农户真实的出售价格,另外还存在补贴资金发放太晚等不合理现象。本文意在通过对相关补贴政策的分析,然后提出针对我国在农产品目标价格补贴方面的高层设计方案。     

进一步完善我国的农业补贴体系

直接补贴和价格支持是功能有别的农业保护手段,直接补贴侧重于增加农民收入,价格支持侧重于稳定农产品供给.因此,不能简单地以直接补贴取代价格支持,只能根据农业发展阶段的变化适时改变两者的组合比例,这从美国、欧盟的农业保护政策变化中得以印证,也应成为我国农业保护政策的立足点.     

Nonfarm employment,agricultural intensification,and productivity change: empirical findings from Uganda

This article uses panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Study‐Integrated Surveys on Agriculture for Uganda to assess the farm‐level effects of nonfarm employment on agricultural intensification and productivity change. A sample selection model is used to account for both unobserved heterogeneity and potential simultaneity between agricultural production and nonfarm income. Results show that nonfarm employment can have differential impacts on farm technology intensity and productivity. Nonfarm income is found to have a positive impact on farm hired labor and improved seed intensity; a negative effect on on‐farm family labor use; and no significant impact on fertilizer, soil water management, and joint use of farm technologies. The econometric evidence also indicates that agricultural productivity declines as nonfarm income increases. Taken together, our findings reveal important trade‐offs between nonfarm employment and income and farm productivity growth under smallholder agriculture. The results indicated that targeted policies are required to reduce these potential trade‐offs between nonfarm employment and agricultural intensification and productivity change.     

IMPACTS OF TAXES TO REDUCE AGRICHEMICAL USE WHEN FARM POLICY IS ENDOGENOUS

The economic impacts of policies to reduce water pollution from agriculture have been explored in a number of studies. A standard assumption in this literature is that farm income support policies are given. However, the modern public choice view of agricultural policy suggests that significant environmental initiatives in agriculture would likely be accompanied by changes in farm income policies to protect those with a significant stake in agriculture. We explore the potential effects of such compensating adjustments on the costs and effectiveness of taxes on polluting chemical inputs in US corn production. We find that compensating farm policy adjustments can greatly increase the costs and reduce the effectiveness of the environmental protection measure. The results also indicate the potentially high costs of poor policy co-ordination.     

From fork to farm: Impacts of more sustainable diets in the EU-27 on the agricultural sector

The implications of dietary changes for the environment and for human health are well documented, but the impacts on the agricultural sector are less well researched. We fill this gap by specifying scenarios in which European consumers' diets approximate the EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations to varying degrees and estimate the effects on agricultural production, incomes and emissions using an agro-economic modelling framework. The combination of different models allows for a detailed assessment of consequences for the agricultural sector from the global through European NUTS2 level to the farm level at different time scales. Shifting European consumption towards the EAT-Lancet recommendations leads to decreasing production of animal-based products, while production of fruits and vegetables increases sharply. The results indicate that the agricultural sector could benefit from a dietary shift, though the results are mixed at country, regional and farm levels. In particular, countries and regions that are highly specialised in animal farming are likely to lose income—at least in the short run—while regions with higher shares of vegetable and fruit farms can expect income gains. In Germany, pig and poultry farms may experience losses of up to 34% of their income, whereas farms with a high share of vegetables could gain more than 30% in income. Our results have implications for the policies to assist these extensive structural adjustments in response to widespread dietary changes.     

Unconventional adjustment strategies for rural households in the less developed areas in Greece

International competition in agricultural production is intensifying following the implementation of the 1993 accord of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. The production of conventional farm products in surplus is being discouraged by means of indirect economic disincentives. The Common Agricultural Policy has already adjusted to unprotected national markets within the European Union and greater market orientation is being achieved mainly through price reductions. Farmers in the less developed areas in Greece, where agricultural activity is still the main source of income and employment, have been responding to policy reforms by seeking part-time employment and income in non-farm enterprises. The adoption of alternative, unconventional farm enterprises that use farm resources in an innovative and quantitatively different way does have the potential for bringing in a new source of income to farm business. For the purpose of this research three adjustment strategies were recognised. The ‘conventional’ (no change) pathway is based on traditional, region-specific products, production methods and services. The adoption of the ‘new crop’ pathway refers to the redeployment of resources into new agricultural products, whereas farms on the market integration Pathway redeploy resources into new marketing services and agricultural product processing on the farm. The new crop and the market integration pathways are identified as unconventional adjustment strategies. Results derived from multinomial logit analysis highlight the major constraints and opportunities associated with the adoption of new crops and market integration practices. Farmers who have adopted unconventional practices are influenced by factors external to the farm. such as contacts with institutions, and have a high probability of having higher debts. These farmers are likely to depend heavily on seasonal labour and rented land. The fact that market integration activities are associated with smaller farms in conjunction with off-farm work signifies the importance of establishing an integrated rural development policy approach. Public policy involvement in enhancing dissemination of information concerning unconventional enterprises is emphasised.     

Household-level effects of China's Sloping Land Conversion Program under price and policy shifts

This study examined how agricultural households involved in China's Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) could respond to expected changes in environmental and livestock policies and changing commodity prices. We calibrated a farm household model using 2009 survey data collected in northeast Gansu Province, China, and examined the responses of four different household groups. Household groups were distinguished based on the resources they possessed for either cropping, livestock husbandry or off-farm employment. We also calculated the opportunity cost of converting sloping land from grain crop production to perennial grass production and included the net value of the replacement crop in these calculations. Our model simulations indicated that subsistence-oriented households were most likely to participate in the SLCP, and that SLCP payment reductions could have large negative income effects for this group. Reductions in SLCP payments increased income inequality among households in the study area. Migration- and cropping-oriented households have fewer incentives to participate in the SLCP. With rising commodity prices, SLCP payments need to rise to avoid that subsistence-oriented households reconvert their land from perennial grasses to annual grain crops. Local government policies related to livestock production are being devised in Gansu as a method to lift incomes, and these policies could also have positive environmental benefits by increasing grass production on sloping land. The introduction of these livestock promotion policies had modest income effects but did not alter the area grown with grasses under the SLCP.     

The Redistributive Effects of Agricultural Policy on Scottish Farm Incomes

This paper focuses on the measurement of the redistributive effects of agricultural policy, proposing measures to characterise and quantify these effects that are based on the change in absolute value of the Gini coefficient. An illustrative study shows that the distribution of support in Scotland in 1999/2000 was regressive with respect to pre‐support farm incomes. Nevertheless, the provision of support would have had an equalising effect on farm incomes but for the resulting changes in the ranking of farms within the income distribution. Reranking not only makes ‘coupled’ support policies ineffective but also inefficient as redistributive instruments.     

Smallholder cooperatives and agricultural performance in Rwanda: do organizational differences matter?

Agricultural policies in Rwanda focus on agricultural intensification and increased market orientation of the smallholder farm sector. Cooperatives are seen as key vehicles in this, but little is known about their effectiveness to achieve these goals. In this article, we analyze the impact of cooperative membership on the agricultural performance of rural households in Rwanda. We use cross‐sectional survey data, collected in 2012, to analyze the impact of cooperative membership on different agricultural performance indicators, including indicators on agricultural intensification, market orientation, farm revenue, and income. We use several econometric techniques to deal with potential selection bias in estimating the impact of cooperative membership, including a proxy variable method based on a willingness to pay measure and propensity score matching methods. We find that cooperative membership in general has a positive impact on farm performance but these effects are driven by specific types of cooperatives.     

Is off-farm income reforming the farm? Evidence from Mexico

Does access to off-farm income complement or compete with agricultural production? This article explores the effect of off-farm income on agricultural production activities, using data from the 2003 Mexico National Rural Household Survey. We first discuss the theoretical conditions under which access to off-farm income may influence production in an agricultural household model. Instrumental-variable (IV) estimation methods are then used to test whether agricultural production activities, technologies, and input use differ between households with and without access to off-farm income. We find that off-farm income has a negative effect on agricultural output and the use of family labor on the farm, but a positive impact on the demand for purchased inputs. There is also a slight efficiency gain in households with access to off-farm income. Findings offer insights into how household production evolves as rural households increasingly engage in off-farm income activities.     

Water pricing policies,public decision making and farmers' response: implications for water policy

The problems caused by water scarcity demand important changes in the criteria and objectives of water policies. The agricultural sector in Spain consumes up to 80% of all available hydric resources and the need to increase the efficiency of current uses of water in the agricultural sector is at the core of the country's national water policy. One alternative would be to resort to water pricing policies with the aim of providing incentives to save water consumption although it would inflict a certain degree of income losses to the farmers and raise the revenue collected by the water authorities. The objective of this research is to analyze the effect caused by the application of different water pricing policies on water demand, farmers' income and the revenue collected by the government agency. To undertake this analysis a dynamic mathematical programming model has been built that simulates farmers' behavior and their response to different water pricing scenarios. Empirical application of the model has been carried out in several irrigation districts in Spain covering varied farm regions and river basins. Results show that the effects of alternative pricing policies for irrigation water are strongly dependent on regional, structural and institutional conditions and that changing policies produce distinct consequences within the same region and water district. Thus, equivalent water charges would create widespread effects on water savings, farm income and collected government revenue across regions and districts.     

China’s Agricultural Policy Transition: Impacts of Recent Reforms and Future Scenarios

This article reviews recent developments in China’s agricultural domestic support policy, especially the transition from taxing farmers and agriculture to providing direct subsidies to grain production and purchased inputs. A model‐based quantitative analysis on the effects of these policy changes is presented. Simulation results suggest that recent policy changes have achieved the declared policy goals of increasing grain production and boosting farm income. Much of the increase in grain production and farm income can be attributed to higher per unit return to arable land, land reallocation to grain production and extra agricultural employment triggered by the policy changes. Based on the assumption that China’s public assistance to agriculture and farmers will continue and rise, two hypothetical future scenarios are simulated. Using all the support permitted under WTO de minimis limits with existing instruments, China’s policy will increase grain production, change trade patterns seemingly contrary to China’s comparative advantage, increase rural employment and significantly increase farm income (by more than 12%). If, however, decoupled instruments are applied to raise China’s agricultural domestic support to the same level, China’s agricultural production and trade will remain unchanged, rural employment remain stable, but farm income will be increased by nearly 15%.