Job search,unemployment and savings

This paper examines optimal search policies on the basis of two alternative assumptions, first that individuals consume income as it is received, and second, that individuals can save and subsequently draw from their savings. In this model workers search for heterogeneousjobs, which are characterized by fixed wages and random duration of employment spells. Workers choose jobs which will maximize the total expected lifetime utility of consumption. The optimal steady-state job acceptance policy in both cases takes the form of a fixed partition of the set of all job offers into acceptable and unacceptable ones. In the absence of a capital market, employment duration appears to be irrelevant for the marginal job offer and all jobs offering wages which exceed the marginal one are also acceptable independent of the distribution functions of employment duration. Nevertheless, the dispersion of employment duration at inframarginal acceptable jobs affects job choice. It is shown that when individuals can save, and if current utility and probability density functions are exponential, then steady-state rates of saving during periods of employment, and of dissaving during periods of unemployment, are independent of wealth and constant. The model developed is then used to examine the determinants of unemployment and the properties of optimal savings rates, and to obtain a number of testable hypotheses about savings behavior and job security.     

人口结构、宏观经济因素、经济增长对储蓄率的影响

伴随着经济的快速增长,我国储蓄率一直居高不下.本文选取人口结构、宏观经济因素和经济增长三方面的变量对我国高储蓄率的成因进行探究.通过协整理论的EG两步法否定了储蓄率和存款利率、城市化率存在协整关系,得出宏观经济因素对我国高储蓄率不具有解释作用的结论.通过将人口结构变量、经济增长变量联合对储蓄率回归,发现经济增长变量对储蓄率的解释作用并不显著,人口结构变量显著影响储蓄率,从而得出我国储蓄率长期趋势主要受人口结构变化影响的结论.这一发现对我国未来人口政策的调整具有重要的启示.     

Aggregate external financing and savings waves

US data display aggregate external financing and savings waves. Firms can allocate costly external finance to productive capital, or to liquid assets with low physical returns. If firms raise costly external finance and accumulate liquidity, either the cost of external finance is relatively low or the total return to liquidity accumulation, including its shadow value as future internal funds, is particularly high. We formalize this intuition by estimating a dynamic model of firms׳ financing and savings decisions, and use our model along with firm level data to construct an empirical estimate of the average cost of external finance from 1980 to 2014.     

Does innovation and financial constraints affect the propensity to save in emerging markets?

Despite the surge in corporate savings and heightened interest in understanding the reasons for this behaviour, little is known about the forces behind this stylised phenomenon in emerging markets (EMs). Using a large sample of firms from nine African countries over the period 2001–2015, we posit and find that the propensity to save is higher in this context due to limited access to external finance. However, when we examine the effects of innovation on corporate savings, we find that the results are reversed as, relative to Non-R&D firms, R&D firms save less of their operating cash flow. This is in stark contrast to the extant literature in advanced economies, which shows that savings are essential to smoothen lumpy, irreversible and risky investments in innovation. We find this is due to the reversal in firm-specific factors, with R&D firms in this context being larger and more mature; hence, relying less on internal financing sources compared to young and less-mature R&D firms in advanced economies. We interpret our results as suggestive of the overarching influence of access to external finance as a major determinant of the propensity to save and deterrent to investing in innovation. Our finding helps explain the glut in innovation amongst small and young firms in emerging markets and calls for policies that promote innovation.     

Life-cycle effects of health risk

Health status affects individuals׳ labor supply, asset accumulation and welfare through four main channels: productivity, medical expenditures, time endowments and survival probabilities. Using a life-cycle model calibrated to the U.S. for different education groups, I evaluate the relative importance of each channel and quantify their interactions. The productivity and time endowment channels dominate in importance and the risks implied by them contribute significantly to income inequality and precautionary savings. Health effects are larger for the non-college than college educated and account to a large extent for the lower labor supply and higher reliance on government transfers of the non-college group.     

Locus of control and savings

This paper analyzes the relationship between individuals’ locus of control and their savings behavior, i.e. wealth accumulation, savings rates, and portfolio choices. Locus of control is a psychological concept that captures individuals’ beliefs about the causal relationship between their own behavior and life events. We find that households with an internal reference person (a main respondent who believes that he/she can generally control relevant aspects of life) save more in terms of levels and, in some cases, as a percentage of their permanent incomes. Although the locus-of-control gap in savings rates is largest among rich households, the gap in wealth accumulation is particularly large for poor households. Finally, our findings indicate that households with an internal reference person are in a better position to save in forms that are harder to access (such as pension wealth) than otherwise similar households with an external reference person.     

Revisiting wage,earnings, and hours profiles

For the youngest cohorts whose entire working life can be observed, hours start falling much earlier than wages. Wages do not fall (if they fall at all) until one׳s late 60s. The data suggest that many workers start a smooth transition into retirement by working progressively fewer hours while still facing an upward-sloping wage profile. This pattern is not an artifact of staggered abrupt retirement or selection. This evidence imposes restrictions on dynamic models of the aggregate economy, and provide updated numerical profiles that can be readily used in quantitative macroeconomic analysis to incorporate this new pattern into aggregate models.     

The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash

We model a firm's demand for liquidity to develop a new test of the effect of financial constraints on corporate policies. The effect of financial constraints is captured by the firm's propensity to save cash out of cash flows (the cash flow sensitivity of cash). We hypothesize that constrained firms should have a positive cash flow sensitivity of cash, while unconstrained firms' cash savings should not be systematically related to cash flows. We empirically estimate the cash flow sensitivity of cash using a large sample of manufacturing firms over the 1971 to 2000 period and find robust support for our theory.     

社会养老保险福利效应研究述评

提高国民福利是政府建立社会养老保险的最终目标。国外研究主要运用一般均衡方法构建代际交叠模型,从养老保险收入分配功能及其对经济增长(储蓄率和资本积累)的影响两个角度对不同养老保险模式的福利效应进行综合研究,研究成果十分丰富。然而,国内对如何在现有约束条件下实现国民福利最大化的探讨不够系统和深入。发展型福利思想为未来养老保险福利效应研究及政策改革提供了新的视角。     

How to turn marketing students into millionaires: Decision making for personal wealth management

Marketing promotes exchange, consumption, selling, and retailing in a society bent on spending and living beyond its means. In the meantime, students’ debts continue to spiral. Marketing professors should teach students how to resist salespeople, retailers, and advertising pitches, and strive to save and invest rather waste financial resources. Frugality is the cornerstone of wealth accumulation. It is not one's income that serves as the primary indicator of one's wealth; the primary indicator is how much goes into savings and investments. A paltry one-time $2,000 investment in a Roth IRA during a student's undergraduate years may balloon to $194,000 by the time the student retires from the workforce. Savings, investments, compound interest, marriage, education, and voluntary simplicity compound into a financially rewarding lifelong journey for the frugal student who resists a consumption-oriented culture.     

Macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances

Does macroeconomic volatility/uncertainty affects accumulation of net foreign assets? In OECD economies over the period 1970–2012, changes in country specific aggregate volatility are, after controlling for a wide array of factors, significantly positively associated with net foreign asset position. A standard open economy model with time varying macroeconomic uncertainty can quantitatively account for this relationship. The key mechanism is precautionary motive: more uncertainty induces residents to save more, and higher savings are in part channeled into foreign assets. Data and theory suggest that volatility is an important determinant of the medium/long run evolution of external imbalances in developed countries.     

信用卡、风险应对与城镇家庭股市参与

信用卡市场的发展有利于家庭平滑消费,但是否会影响家庭的投资决策尚缺少事实检验。基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2011和2013年的调查数据,本文首次检验了信用卡对城镇家庭股市投资的影响。研究发现:(1)控制家庭财富、融资渠道、社会资本等特征,持有信用卡在边际上促进了家庭的股市参与率,股市投资额取决于信用额度。(2)中国信用卡市场的发展,并未像流动性约束理论预测的可以平滑消费,反而刺激了家庭风险性资产的配置,最终提高了储蓄率。原因在于,中国家庭更多地将信用卡作为应对未来短期突发性风险的金融工具,从而在当期将更多资产配置在风险资产上,以实现资本积累。使用信用卡数目、信用额度等多种衡量方式,并采用工具变量法(IV)和面板数据固定效应模型等解决内生性问题后,该结论稳健。该研究有助于理解信用卡在中国家庭投资决策的作用,并为流动性约束或有限股市参与假说提供中国经验。     

人民币汇率与企业生产率变动--来自中国的经验证据

基于2000—2007年工业企业微观数据和高度细化的海关数据,本文深入考察了人民币实际有效汇率对中国制造业企业生产率的影响。结果显示:(1)人民币实际有效汇率升值对制造业企业生产率的净效应为正,其通过企业资本劳动要素配置效应、企业选择效应、规模经济效应以及人力资本提升效应对制造业企业的生产率提升产生了积极影响,并且上述结论在考虑了人民币实际有效汇率的内生性问题之后依然稳健;(2)人民币实际有效汇率对企业生产率的影响,因企业出口与否、贸易方式、技术水平和所有制的不同而具有显著的异质性;(3)作为人民币汇率影响企业生产率的制约因素,企业融资能力越强,人民币汇率升值对企业生产率的积极影响越大。     

工资生产率背离与实际汇率——中美巴萨效应再检验

本文通过放松巴萨效应(B-S效应)两大假设,构建了包含贸易品一价定律偏离和劳动力市场分割的开放经济局部均衡模型对人民币实际汇率进行分解,并使用中美服务业细分行业与制造业2004Q1-2016Q4季度数据,分组对人民币实际汇率的B-S效应及其传导渠道进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)中美之间B-S效应成立,但相对相对生产率通过影响相对相对工资从而影响物价水平,并最终影响实际汇率这一传导渠道不成立;(2)除传统B-S效应传导渠道外,我们发现相对相对生产率通过影响GDP进而影响实际汇率这一传导渠道;(3)产业结构失衡在一定程度上导致中国相对生产率和相对工资背离,使得相对相对工资的增加对人民币实际汇率产生负向(升值)作用。这说明,要时刻关注经济基本面,通过供给侧结构性改革提高劳动生产率,实现高端制造业和服务业的协调发展。     

Share issuance and cash savings

Firms increasingly issue shares for the purpose of cash savings. During the 1970s, $1.00 of issuance resulted in $0.23 of cash savings; over the most recent decade, $1.00 of issuance resulted in $0.60 of cash savings. This increase is caused by increasing precautionary motives. Proxies for precautionary motives increase over the sample period, and firm-level increases in these proxies are associated with firm-level increases in share issuance–cash savings. Share issuance–cash savings are inversely related to issuance costs, suggesting that firms issue and save when costs are low, so as to avoid issuing when costs are high. This framework can also help explain patterns and trends in share issuance activity over time. Market timing does not explain these effects, as share issuance–cash savings are not related to post-issuance stock returns.     

Investigating the Impact of Income on Savings Using a Chinese Household Level Dataset

This article uses the China Household Financial Survey (CHFS) to examine the savings behavior of Chinese Households. Using a standard cross-sectional empirical approach to modeling permanent and transitory income, we show that one way of explaining the relative high savings rate in China is by recognizing that in fast growing economies, individuals may have higher transitory income from which they save a large proportion. The estimation also contains a range of household specific variables which can be used to understand the impact of socio-economic characteristics such as urban vs rural dwelling, age, and the educational level.     

The Corporate Propensity to Save

Why do corporations accumulate liquid assets? We show theoretically that intertemporal trade‐offs between interest income taxation and the cost of external finance determine optimal savings. Intriguingly, we find that, controlling for Tobin's q, saving and cash flow are negatively related because firms lower cash reserves to invest after receiving positive cash‐flow shocks, and vice versa. Consistent with theory, we estimate negative propensities to save out of cash flow. We also find that income uncertainty affects saving more than do external finance constraints. Therefore, contrary to previous evidence, saving propensities reflect too many forces to be used to measure external finance constraints.     

人口结构与储蓄率:基于内生人口结构的研究

本文在内生人口结构视角下研究了少儿抚养比、老人抚养比对储蓄率的影响。我们利用中国省际面板数据,通过面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,检验了抚养比、储蓄率和人均实际GDP之间的相互关系。结果表明,少儿和老人抚养比与储蓄率都呈负相关关系;经济增长导致少儿抚养比下降的幅度远高于老人抚养比升高的幅度,因此经济增长会伴随储蓄率的升高;此外,低出生率导致的老龄化过程会降低资本积累的动态无效率,但会伴随人均收入水平的下降。     

进口与企业员工收入——以中国制造业企业为例

进口企业的职工工资直接关系到企业员工的民生福祉和劳动力市场的就业稳定性。本文基于中国制造业微观企业数据,就进口贸易对企业职工收入的影响进行深入考察,结果表明:(1)进口有利于提高企业职工的平均工资水平,不过这种正向的“工资提升”效应在长期不具有持续性。(2)中介效应检验表明,进口通过竞争效应和激励效应作用于企业的工资水平。进一步使用倍差法、工具变量法等的估计结果也证实了上述结论的稳健性。(3)进口对企业工资水平的影响因企业所有制、是否出口、进口产品类型以及进口来源国的不同而具有显著的异质性。(4)引入劳动收入份额的分析表明,进口显著降低了企业的劳动收入份额。具体地,进口的“生产率提升效应”影响超过了“工资提升效应”影响。     

Financial literacy and the timing of tax-preferred savings account withdrawals

Tax deductions on contributions to registered savings vehicles are a common policy tool used by governments in many industrialized countries to encourage people to save for retirement. However, these plans do not typically lock in funds, which means savers may also withdraw before retirement when their marginal tax rates are still high and forgo the tax benefit. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which pre-retirement savings withdrawals respond to changes in the net-of-tax benefit of withdrawing and whether such behavior depends on the saver’s financial literacy. To that end, we link respondents of a nationally representative financial capability survey from Canada to over 15 years of administrative tax data. Our results show that the correlation between savings withdrawals and the effective marginal tax rate is negative for those with higher financial literacy, but much weaker and sometimes statistically insignificant for those with lower financial literacy. The findings suggest that financial literacy is an important determinant of the extent to which tax-deductible savings plans are used efficiently.