Cointegration and common trends on the West German labour market

In this paper we analyze the West German labour market by means of a cointegrated structural VAR model. We find sensible stable long-run relationships that are interpreted as a labour demand, a wage setting and a goods market equilibrium. In order to study the dynamic behaviour of the model we identify two common trends that push unemployment. We find that goods market shocks have only transitory impacts on unemployment. In the long run, it is almost equally determined by technology and labour supply factors. However, transitory shocks have major importance in the shorter run since adjustment processes are rather sluggish. First version received: Sept. 1998/Final version accepted: Feb. 2000     

Fair wages in a New Keynesian model of the business cycle

We build a New Keynesian model of the business cycle with sticky prices and real wage rigidities motivated by efficiency wages of the gift exchange variety. Compared to a standard sticky price model, our Fair Wage model provides an explanation for structural unemployment and generates more plausible labor market dynamics—notably accounting for the low correlation between wages and employment. The fair wage induced real wage rigidity also significantly reduces the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output. The smoother dynamics of real marginal cost increase both amplification and persistence of output responses to monetary shocks, thus remedying the well-known lack of internal propagation of standard sticky price models. We take these improvements as a strong endorsement of the addition of real wage rigidities to nominal price rigidities and conclude that the fair wage extension of this paper constitutes a promising platform for an enriched New Keynesian synthesis.     

What goes up sometimes stays up: shocks and institutions as determinants of unemployment persistence

We analyse the determinants of unemployment persistence in four OECD countries by estimating a structural Bayesian VAR with an informative prior based on an insiders/outsiders model. We explicitly insert unemployment benefits and labour taxes so that our identification is not affected by the Faust and Leeper (1997) critique. We find widespread hysteresis: demand shocks play a dominant role in explaining unemployment also in the medium‐run. Moreover real wages have low sensitivity to cyclical fluctuations and to labour market disequilibria. Our results emphasise the real power of the unions and their interactions with structural shocks and other institutions as crucial determinants of hysteresis.     

Does Price Stability Exacerbate Labour Market Rigidities in the EMU?

How will the commitment to price stability affect labour market rigidities in the European Monetary Union? I explore a model where firms choose between fixed wage contracts (where the employer cannot lay off the worker, and the wage can only be changed by mutual consent), or contracts where employment is at will, so that either party may terminate employment (with strong similarities to temporary jobs). A fixed wage contract provides better incentives for investment and training, while employment at will facilitates efficient mobility. Inflation erodes the real value of a fixed contract wage over time, and badly matched workers are more likely to quit for other jobs. Disinflation has opposing effects on labour market rigidity: fixed wage contracts become more rigid in real terms, but fewer firms will choose fixed wage contracts.     

Equity home bias,incomplete financial markets,and nominal rigidities

Abstract This paper analyzes optimal portfolio decisions in a monetary open‐economy framework. It is found that market completeness and the specific form of nominal rigidities, namely, nominal price vs. nominal wage rigidities, matter for justifying the observed structure of equity holdings. When markets are complete, sticky prices generate a negative correlation between the non‐diversifiable labour income and the profit of domestic firms with respect to the productivity shocks, which explains why households invest little abroad. In contrast, when markets are incomplete, rigidities in goods prices result in a counterfactual ‘super home bias’, because domestic equities provide a good hedge against not only the labour income risk but also the relative price risk. Wage rigidities, however, have the opposite effect. Therefore, nominal rigidities in both goods prices and wage rates are needed to address the empirical composition of gross equity positions under incomplete markets.     

Wage and employment effects of a wage norm

Most transition countries used tax‐supported wage norms in the early 1990s, as a part of their market liberalization programmes. This article analyses how a firm‐level tax (or subsidy) on deviations from a pre‐set wage norm may promote employment by rotating the labour demand curve perceived by the workers’ union around the value of the norm. We derive the conditions under which it yields a positive employment effect. We test the effect of the norm on the wages on a sample of Polish firms in 1990 and 1991. The data support the role of the wage norm on the position of the perceived labour demand curve and the role of the tax rate on its slope.     

Exporting and labour demand: Micro‐level evidence from Germany

It is widely believed that globalization increases the extent of employment and wage responses to economic shocks. In this paper, we investigate the effect of firms’ exporting activities on the wage elasticity of labour demand. Using rich, administrative linked employer–employee panel data from Germany and destination‐specific industry‐level information on trade flows, we explicitly control for self‐selection into exporting and endogeneity concerns. Overall, we find that exporting has a significant positive effect on the (absolute value of the) unconditional wage elasticity of labour demand. In line with our hypothesis, we further show that the effect is particularly strong for those plants that export a significant share of their output to low‐ and medium‐income countries, hence face relatively more price‐elastic product demand.     

The relation between the speed of demand saturation and the dynamism of the labour market

The purpose of this paper is to examine the medium run effect of the speed of demand saturation on the dynamism of the labour market which involves factors such as the growth of employment and real wage rate, using a computer simulation of the stochastically multi-sectoral pure labour model with a logistic demand function. From the simulation, we obtain the evolutions of the expectation of the employment rate and the real wage rate, supposing three cases where the speed of demand saturation for a product that stochastically emerges is, ceteris paribus, different. As a result, it is demonstrated that the faster growth of demand for a product that emerges stochastically accelerates the growth of employment, but decelerates the growth of real wage rate. The result depends on the heterogeneity of the agents, which is neglected by mainstream economics.     

Exports,Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data

In this work we first model the role of demand‐ and supply‐side factors (labour market adjustment, productive efficiency) in explaining economic growth. Empirically testing the model, we evaluate why different growth regimes may appear in the 20 Italian administrative regions. This exercise uses a two‐stage econometric approach. Estimates for the elasticity of manufacturing output to exports are obtained from regional time series: a significant long‐run relationship indicates the existence of a demand‐constrained growth regime. We then ascertain whether the regional dispersion of supply‐side factors has an impact on the regional dispersion of growth regimes. The empirical evidence supports our expectations of strong regional differences. Southern regions are less likely to display demand‐constrained regimes. In explanation of these differences, second‐stage analysis reveals that a strong role is played by such efficiency‐enhancing factors as technological innovation, bank diffusion and ‘social capital’. No role is found for labour market rigidities.     

Labour market rigidity and expansionary austerity

This study provides new evidence on how labour market rigidities affect the transmission of fiscal consolidations using a sample of 17 OECD countries. Owing to a novel empirical approach, the outcomes of consolidations are modelled as a function of employment and wage rigidities. The evidence confirms that tax-based consolidations are distortionary, while expenditure-based consolidations have wealth effects. These effects are then magnified by flexible employment and rigid wages, while they are moderated by rigid employment and flexible wages. This indicates that labour market conditions influence how fiscal consolidation is propagated in the economy by affecting both the magnitude and the transmission channels of consolidation plans. This result has crucial policy implications and suggests that the design of consolidation plans should account for the labour market structure.     

What ever happened to Germany? Is the decline of the former european key currency country caused by structural sclerosis or by macroeconomic mismanagement?

This paper challenges the institutional sclerosis view of the German crisis according to which rigid labour markets and generous welfare state institutions have driven Germany into its position as ‘Europe's sick man’. In general, the view is not convincing, because the underlying hypotheses about the effects of labour market regulation and welfare state institutions on employment and growth cannot unambiguously be derived from modern labour market theory and are at least partially at odds with accepted empirical findings. In particular, the explanation is unconvincing, because in international comparison Germany's labour market and welfare state institutions are simply not as sclerotic as often supposed. In most of the aggregate indicators for structural rigidities Germany is not worse than the average OECD or EU country. Moreover, there is a macroeconomic explanation focusing on the combined effects of restrictive and pro‐cyclical monetary, fiscal and wage policies in Germany that is broadly consistent with modern macroeconomic theory and is supported by empirical data.     

Market Rigidities and Labour Market Flexibility: An International Comparison

The effects of product and labour market rigidities on labour market dynamics are analysed using a panel of two-digit ISIC level data for seven OECD countries. As expected, employment protection was found to slacken labour market flows. Centralized wage bargaining also reduced the degree of job turnover, although a priori the effect of centralized wage bargaining on labour market flexibility is not clear. Industry subsidies have a positive impact on job reallocation by increasing job creation. The labour market dynamics are also compared in detail for two economies regarded as extremes in terms of regulations, the U.S. and Norway.     

What are the determinants of hiring? The importance of product market demand and search frictions

In this article, we study the importance of product market demand and search frictions for hiring. We use a search-matching model with imperfect competition in the product market to derive an equation for total hiring in a local labour market, and estimate it on Swedish panel data. If product markets are imperfectly competitive, product demand shocks should have a direct effect on employment for given levels of prices and wages. Our main finding is that product demand has such a direct effect on hiring. This highlights the importance of taking imperfect competition in the product market into account in studies of employment dynamics and hiring. We also find that, for given levels of prices, wages, and product demand, the number of unemployed workers in a local labour market has a positive effect on hiring, suggesting that search frictions matter. Quantitatively, product demand shocks seem to be more important for understanding the variation in hiring than shocks to the number of unemployed workers.     

The responsiveness of industry wages to low‐frequency shocks in Canada

Abstract The first objective of this paper is to examine the empirical relationship between low‐frequency shocks to labour demand and average wages on an industrial basis using a Canadian longitudinal data set. We estimate a fixed‐effects model that controls for workers’ unobservable attributes. The second major objective is to extend the existing industry‐based literature by estimating a specification allowing for a comparison between the degree of wage responsiveness of within‐firm stayers and between‐firm movers. The findings indicate that average wages by industry tend to respond positively to low frequency changes in employment, and that there is some degree of wage flexibility within firm‐worker matches.     

WHAT CAN CHANGES IN STRUCTURAL FACTORS TELL US ABOUT UNEMPLOYMENT IN EUROPE?

This paper examines the impact of temporal variation in labour market institutions and other structural factors on unemployment in Europe. A system comprising a labour demand and a wage equation is estimated on pooled time‐series data for the six largest EU countries for the 1980s and 1990s. The results suggest that changes in regional mismatch, trade union density and the ratio between consumer and producer prices are positively associated with structural unemployment. This result is robust to a wide variety of different specifications. No consistent role is found for other institutional factors (such as social security benefits, employment security and minimum wage).     

Immigration policy and employment assimilation in the United States

We examine the impact of immigration policy on the employment propensity and assimilation of immigrants using a pooled cross-section of the 1994–2004 Current Population Surveys (CPS). The results are generally consistent with positive immigrant employment assimilation. A Blinder–Oaxaca style decomposition shows that the foreign-born obtain more employment primarily through human capital acquisition and changes in labour market conditions rather than higher returns to observable skills, as sometimes seen in wage studies. In addition, our analysis suggests that immigration policies may influence both labour demand and supply incentives and are associated with structural shifts in the labour market.     

Modelling labour market dynamics with on-the-job search

A flow model of the Dutch labour market is used to calculate the effects of policy options which aim to enhance employment, especially at the lower end of the labour market. The model distinguishes between good and bad jobs, allows for endogenous wage formation and job creation, and describes the flows between these jobs so that job-to-job mobility and the vacancy chain is made endogenous. In the matching process employed job seekers with bad jobs compete with short-term and long-term unemployed for the filling of vacancies for good jobs. In each period part of the good and bad jobs are destroyed which results in inflow into unemployment. The model explicitly describes the flow of unemployed through the various duration classes of unemployment and it allows for negative duration dependence so that the escape probability from unemployment for long-term unemployed is smaller than for short-term unemployed. The model is used to simulate the effects of external shocks, such as structural productivity shocks. An impulse response analysis using the model is also conducted considering labour market policies which aims especially to enhance employment at the lower end of the labour market. In particular, the effects are analysed of measures subsidising the opening of bad jobs (jobs at the lower end of the labour market) and a rise in the productivity of a bad job as compared to a good job which can be achieved by changes in the tax system.     

News shocks and labour market dynamics in matching models

We enrich a baseline real business cycle (RBC) model with search and matching frictions on the labour market and real frictions that are helpful in accounting for the response of macroeconomic aggregates to shocks. The analysis allows shocks to have an unanticipated and a news (i.e., anticipated) component. The Bayesian estimation of the model reveals that the model that includes news shocks on macroeconomic aggregates produces a remarkable fit of the data. News shocks in stationary and non‐stationary TFP, investment‐specific productivity and preference shocks significantly affect labour market variables and explain a sizeable fraction of macroeconomic fluctuations at medium‐ and long‐run horizons. Historically, news shocks have played a relevant role for output, but they have had a limited influence on unemployment.     

Employment,output and political business cycle effects in the Greek non-tradable sector

Starting from a theoretical model with traded and non-traded goods, a long-run labour demand equation is identifed, with employment being proportional to relative output and prices. Using Greek data, the model supports weak exogeneity of relative prices and fiscal expansion with respect to the long-run parameters in the cointegrating space. It also highlights structural rigidities in the functioning of the Greek labour market. Political business cycle and partisan effects are shown to affect the short-run employment decisions.     

Gender differences in self‐employment

This paper examines the factors that influence transitions into self‐employment, paying particular attention to gender differences. We find that: (i) men are more responsive to the wage differential between wage/salaried employment and self‐employment; (ii) liquidity constraints are more important for men; and (iii) the link between father's self‐employment status and the probability of self‐employment is stronger for men. Taken together, these results suggest that, for women, self‐employment is a closer substitute for part‐time work and labour‐market inactivity than it is for men. We attribute such differences to the different labour market opportunities and occupational strategies of women.