基于分形维的基金投资风格识别及漂移量化研究

有效市场假说已受到越来越多的现实挑战,文章在分析我国股市风格呈分形特征的基础上,把分形市场理论探索性地引入到基金投资风格领域,提出了基于分形维数的投资风格识别方法,并以我国79只开放式股票型基金为样本进行实证研究。结果表明：该方法能较好对基金投资风格进行准确性识别,大部分基金具有风格错配现象,比现有的两种主流风格识别方法更符合目前分形市场的现实背景,为基金经理与投资者提供了一种更加贴近现实市场的投资风格识别方法,使识别效果更加准确客观;并借鉴基尼系数的思想构建了风格一致性指标(CIS)来量化投资风格漂移程度,结果发现78.5%的基金发生了一定程度的风格漂移现象,风格一致性与风格漂移较严重的基金较少,这与证券市场非完全有效呈分形特征有关。     

基于R/S分析的股市风格分形特征研究

运用多重分形R/S分析法研究我国股票市场的风格分形结构特征,通过计算中信标普公司推出的6种纯风格资产指数在不同时间标度下的收益率序列Hurst指数与平均循环周期,发现我国股票市场风格存在统计自相似性、标度不变性、长记忆性,不同风格资产指数收益序列具有不同的平均循环周期等分形特征,这为基金公司、基金经理及时地把握股市风格的轮换规律,构建适度风格漂移策略以获取短期超额收益提供了决策参考与理论支持。     

开放式基金的波动性特——基于GARCH模型征分析

本文运用GARCH模型对开放式基金及其业绩比较基准指数的波动性进行比较分析。研究表明开放式基金收益率的备件方差受近期的收益偏差影响要明显地大于业绩比较基准指数。而受历史业绩波动性的影响程度比业绩比较基准指数要小一些。这说明我国开放式基金的业绩波动除了受市场因素影响之外．还有来自投资者的短期非理性投资行为的压力。     

开放式基金的波动性特征分析——基于GARCH模型

本文运用GARCH模型对开放式基金及其业绩比较基准指教的波动性进行比较分析,研究表明开放式基金收益率的条件方差受近期的收益偏差影响要明显地大于业绩比较基准指数,而受历史业绩波动性的影响程度比业绩比较基准指数要小一些。这说明我国开放式基金的业绩波动除了受市场因素影响之外,还有来自投资者的短期非理性投资行为的压力。     

风格漂移与基金绩效

基于收益率的风格分析模型,对国内36支开放式基金进行动态分析,将基金的实际投资风格和宣称的投资风格进行比较。研究发现绝大多数的基金在此研究期间发生了"风格漂移"现象,牛市行情中发生"风格漂移"的基金绩效要优于固守宣称风格的基金绩效,熊市行情中发生"风格漂移"的基金绩效要低于未发生"风格漂移"的基金绩效。     

中国企业年金指数的设计与应用

企业年金指数是衡量企业年金投资市场收益水平及其变动趋势的基准尺度,反映在可供中国企业年金基金投资的货币类市场、权益类市场和固定收益类市场之间进行不同资产配置的市场表现,为中国企业年金基金提供投资业绩衡量基准,为评价企业年金投资机构和投资组合业绩提供科学、客观、有效的评价工具。     

我国开放式基金风格调整绩效的实证分析

目前对开放式基金的风险调整收益的研究很多,但对风格调整收益的研究确不常见。但随着基金风格的明确,对风格调整收益的研究也越来越重要。配合Sharpe模型,我们采取Lobosco方法对模型进行风格调整绩效的分析,并且与Jensen指标进行对比,得出如下结论:两个指标都证明基金经理有可能优于基准风格指数取得超额收益,但就目前实际情况来看,还是无法战胜市场。     

我国股票型开放式基金的投资风格分析

本文首先应用Sharpe投资风格分析法对我国股票型开放式基金的实际投资风格进行了分析,并运用平移窗口的方法对基金风格的可持续性进行研究。研究结果表明,在2004年3月到2008年3月期间,大多数基金的实际投资风格与其契约风格不同,且转变风格的基金大多数为由标榜为价值型转变为成长型。从整个考察期看,基金的投资风格并不稳定,表现出随市场状况变化而漂移的特征,16支样本基金中,有11支基金在本文考察期间发生了风格转换,平均每支变换风格0.93。这期间基金通过资产配置获得的平均收益(风格收益)约占到总收益的86%,依靠基金管理人的选股能力获得的收益约占到整个收益的14%。     

沪深300指数的分形特征及长记忆性研究:2002-2011

沪深300指数作为反映我国A股市场整体走势的指数,它的推出具有重大的现实意义。它不仅能反映我国证券市场股票价格变动的概貌和运行状况,更是能够作为投资业绩的评价标准,为指数化投资和指数衍生产品的创新提供基础条件。因此,对沪深300指数的相关特征的研究就显得尤为必要与紧迫。本文即是在对沪深300指数的分形特征展开研究的基础上对该指数的长记忆性及其周期进行了初试的探索,得出沪深300指数的对数收益率序列具有约101天的系统对初始条件的平均记忆长度。     

基金经理异质性与投资风格漂移——基于SDS 方法的截面数据实证分析

本文采用基于强式夏普模型的SDS指标方法研究我国开放式偏股型基金中的基金经理异质性特征与基金投资风格漂移的关系.研究发现基金经理异质性特征中的社会类别异质性、信息异质性与价值异质性三个类别,包括基金经理更换、基金经理在本基金的从业时间基金经理的学历水平等代理变量对基金投资风格漂移程度存在显著的影响,股票市场上牛熊市性质和波动性对基金投资风格漂移影响显著.     

基金投资风格一致性及其对基金绩效的影响

以2004年2月27日之前上市的29只开放式股票型基金为样本,采用RSA风格分析方法,对投资风格进行静态分析和滚动分析,并设计投资风格一致性指标,考察中国开放式股票型基金的实际投资风格,以及投资风格一致性对基金绩效的影响。研究发现:中国证券投资基金实际投资风格与其所宣称的投资风格不匹配;在行情上升阶段,投资风格一致性高的基金绩效优于投资风格一致性低的基金,而在行情下降阶段则不存在显著差异。     

The Financial Performance of a Socially Responsible Investment Over Time and a Possible Link with Corporate Social Responsibility

This paper empirically examines the financial performance of a UK unit trust that was initially “conventional” and later adopted socially responsible investment (SRI) principles (ethical investment principles). Comparison is made with three similar conventional funds whose investment objectives remained unchanged. Analysis techniques employed in previous studies find similar results: mean risk-adjusted performance is unchanged by the switch to SRI, with no evidence of over-or under-performance relative to the benchmark market index by any of the four funds. More interestingly, changes in variability of returns over time are also modelled using generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models, not previously applied to SRI funds so far as is known. Results show a temporary increase in variability of returns, followed by a return to previous levels after around 4 years. Evidence shows the increased variability to be associated with the adoption of SRI rather than with a change in fund management. Possible explanations for the subsequent reduction in variability include the spread of corporate social responsibility activities by firms and learning by fund managers. In addition to reporting on a previously unobserved phenomenon, this paper raises questions for further research.     

Ability parity model for optimal fund allocation: Evidence from China's mutual fund markets

We propose in this article a novel ability parity model for optimal fund allocation. Compared with the traditional portfolio selection methods which directly work on asset returns and/or risk (volatility), the proposed ability parity method focuses mainly on the allocation between the stock selection ability and market timing ability of fund managers, which essentially determines fund performance (Fama, 1972). Using the data of China's mutual fund markets, we find strong and robust evidence that the proposed ability parity model delivers significantly higher return, skewness, and Sharpe ratio than traditional models and the benchmark index, while having volatilities comparable with traditional models.     

Psychological Capital: Impacts on Asset Management

Drawing together the areas of behavioral finance and positive psychology, the present research sought to investigate whether the psychological capital of investment fund managers is associated with fund performance in a context of financial instability. The theoretical propositions were presented and evaluated empirically through primary data on investment fund manager profiles and secondary data on the cumulative stock fund returns. The results indicate that funds managed by managers with greater resilience and optimism obtained a higher return than the mean profitability in a period of market instability.     

Private equity performance and capital flows: Evidence from China

For more than 1500 private equity funds in China over the period from 1992 to 2013, we construct fund level performance metrics with investment level return data and examine performance and capital flows. The median (mean) fund IRR, net of fees, is 9.0% (51.7%), based on a sample that controls for survivorship bias. Fund IRRs are neither related to fund own characteristics, such as fund size, nor to overall market conditions around the time when the fund is raised. Competition reduces fund performance: returns are lower when there are many competitors entering the industry at the same time. Although experienced partnerships are more likely to raise a follow-on fund and to raise more capital, fund performance is not related to general partnership (GP) investment experience. Further, there is no performance persistence across funds managed by the same GP. Lastly, there is some evidence of investor maturity when judged on GPs' historical performance. This evidence characterizes a burgeoning yet immature PE industry in China.     

Managerial Sharing,Mutual Fund Connections,and Performance

In this study, we examine the effect of mutual fund connections, through managerial sharing, on performance and stock holding commonalities. Our analysis of return correlations and portfolio holdings indicates that more interconnected funds tend to buy and sell similar stocks, hence increasing the similarity of portfolio holdings and undermining the distinctiveness of their investment strategy. Our results also indicate that highly connected funds significantly underperform weakly connected funds by about 1.4% on a yearly risk‐adjusted basis. We show that fund family performance is unaffected by the intensity of fund connections, and that greater fund connections could significantly enhance family‐level profit margins.     

基于分形盒维数的双门限合作频谱感知方法

在信号分形盒维数特征的基础上,提出利用噪声与授权信号分形盒维数的差异对授权 用户是否存在进行检测。为了使合作感知性能趋于更优,多用户采用双门限策略进行分步合 作。该方法运算复杂度低,对噪声不敏感。仿真结果表明,双门限合作相比单门限分形盒维 数检测 和能量检测,系统检测率更高,所需频谱感知时长较短, 同时减轻了融合控制中心以及传输 信道的负荷。