逆周期财政政策能够控制政府债务风险吗?——理论变迁与经验数据分析

文章基于经济理论变迁,梳理了近代以来西方预算平衡与政府债务理论变迁的主要趋势,探讨了古典经济学年度预算平衡理论与凯恩斯财政革命后的周期预算平衡理论,及其对政府债务风险管理的影响。在此基础上,文章使用跨国面板数据实证分析了发展中国家财政周期选择对政府债务风险的影响,研究发现采取逆周期财政政策的国家能够更好地约束债务风险,该实证结果在不同债务警戒标准下均保持稳健。当前,为了有效约束财政风险,我国应避免进入顺周期财政陷阱,建立可控债务风险的逆周期财政调控机制。     

债务危机背景下欧盟财政一体化的进展与挑战

关于主权债务危机的成因,经济学家较集中的论断是欧元区成员国在货币一体化的同时缺乏财政一体化。然而,在被认为是欧盟推进财政一体化重要举措的财政契约签订后,主权债务危机的阴影继续蔓延至西班牙和塞浦路斯。如何评价财政契约对财政一体化的影响,财政一体化对缓解债务危机有什么作用,本文从财政职能、经济增长和危机根源等角度进行了深入的分析,并指出财政契约和今后的财政一体化进程都将在众多挑战中艰难推进。     

Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets

Bank crises in emerging economies have been a feature of the recent global crisis, and their incidence has increased in the post-Bretton Woods era. This paper investigates the impact of financial globalization on the incidence of systemic bank crises in 20 emerging markets over the years 1976–2002 using measures of de facto and de jure financial openness. An increase in foreign debt liabilities contributes to an increase in the incidence of crises, but foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities have the opposite effect. A more liberal de jure capital regime lowers the incidence of banking crises, while a regime of fixed exchange rates increases their frequency. The results of the econometric analysis is consistent with the experience of East European and central Asian emerging markets, which attracted a relatively large proportion of capital flows in the form of debt in recent years and have been particularly hard hit by the global financial crisis.     

Beyond HIPC: What are the Prospects for Debt Sustainability?

Abstract: The pronouncement by the G‐8 Summit at Gleneagles in July 2005 on debt cancellation under the HIPC Initiative, affirmed by the G‐8 Ministers of Finance in Washington in September, should signal the beginning of debt relief for the world's heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC), mostly African. It is expected that debt cancellation should return the beneficiary countries to debt sustainability and afford their governments the fiscal space to invest in basic infrastructure and social services. Countries could significantly enhance their prospects for maintaining debt sustainability mainly by adopting debt management strategies that de‐emphasize excessive borrowing, checking the expansion of unproductive public sector activities and the associated fiscal deficits, financial restructuring to reduce the bias against autonomous capital flows, and taking deliberate actions to expand exports.     

Fiscal sustainability in the wake of the economic crisis in Korea

The total amount of government debt was expected to rise sharply over the following several years in the wake of the Korean financial and economic crisis in 1997, raising concern about the sustainability of government deficits and fiscal consolidation. This paper provides an overview of Korea’s fiscal stance after the financial crisis and the policy implications for fiscal consolidation by assessing fiscal sustainability. Sustainability tests are carried out and show that Korean fiscal policy for the period 1970–1999 should be regarded as sustainable. Indicators of sustainability are also measured to that Korean fiscal policy for the period 1970–1996 is sustainable. However, both the primary and tax gap indicators with a sharp rise in the debt ratios are shown to be worsening since 1997 indicating increasingly possible unsustainable fiscal policies. It implies that the current primary deficit is too large and current taxes are too low to stabilize the debt ratio.     

Assessing Local Government Debt Risks in China: A Case Study of Local Government Financial Vehicles

Strong credit expansion in China after the recent global financial crisis has brought local government financial vehicles (LGFV) into the spotlight. Rapid growth of LGFV has triggered concern about local government indebtedness, banks' asset quality and, more broadly, China's medium‐term financial stability and sovereign risk. This paper constructs a unique firm‐level dataset to evaluate the country's local government debt. We find an uneven distribution of LGFV, which are concentrated in the coastal areas, and a deterioration of their debt repaying ability from 2010 to 2012. We use principal component analysis (PCA) along with multivariate discriminate analysis (MDA) to identify the credit risk of LGFV based on conventional financial variables as well as local governments' fiscal status. We also estimate the safe boundaries of debt bearing at the provincial government level. The estimations reveal more severe local government debt risks in the middle‐western provinces and higher risks associated with LGFV at the municipal and county levels. Although it is very unlikely that there will be a national debt crisis in China, the high risk of LGFV should be noted and effectively controlled by improving the fiscal transparency of local governments and reforming the fiscal system.     

Does Central Bank Financial Strength Really Matter for Inflation? The Key Role of the Fiscal Support

This paper examines whether weak central bank finances affect inflation by scrutinizing the key rationale for such a relationship: that the absence of Treasury support makes central bank finances relevant for price stability. Specifically, I ask whether central banks which are not likely to enjoy fiscal support when needed experience higher inflation as their financial situation deteriorates. I find this to be true among a large sample of 82 countries between 1998 and 2008. De facto potential fiscal support appears relevant, while de jure fiscal support, which I survey analyzing 82 central bank laws, does not appear to matter. The results also bring forward an explanation for the conflicting results of the previous empirical studies, which neglected this key component.     

欧洲货币联盟设计中的缺陷

欧债危机暴露了欧洲货币联盟运作机制的设计缺陷:财政纪律松散、金融监管失当和欧洲央行角色定位存在偏差。危机也为欧元区矫正缺陷提供了改革契机。强化财政纪律有两种思路,制定新的"财政条约"和采取"宪制安排";提高监管效率的改革理念是实施金融监管集中化;欧洲央行应将金融稳定作为主要目标,并承担最后贷款人的角色。文章对上述理念进行了评述,指出除此之外欧盟需要开展更加广泛和深刻的改革。     

The European debt crisis and fiscal reactions in Europe 2000–2014

After the outbreak of the global financial crisis, some governments in the EU experienced serious fiscal problems, while others were less affected. This paper seeks to shed light on the divergent fiscal performance in the EU countries before and after the outbreak of the crisis. Fiscal reaction functions of the primary balance are estimated for different groups of EU countries using quarterly data for the pre-crisis period 2001–2008 and for the crisis period 2009–2014. The pre-crisis estimations reveal some differences in persistence and cyclical reaction between different groups of countries, but in most cases little feedback from the debt stock to the primary balance. The fiscal reaction functions of the countries that eventually developed fiscal problems do not stand out. The estimations on data from the crisis period show largely unchanged persistence and counter-cyclicality but much more feedback from the debt stock, and this applies both to the crisis countries and those less affected. In spite of large deficits and accumulation of debt, the underlying fiscal reaction has become more prudent after the outbreak of the European debt crisis.     

Stable and enforceable: a new fiscal framework for the Euro area

Since the great financial crash, the need for new fiscal rules to prevent unsustainable fiscal policies is universally recognised. In practice such rules, including those in the Stability and Growth Pact, have proved to be impossible to enforce. Thus, to avoid unsustainable fiscal policies reappearing, and to prevent monetary policy from being undermined by undisciplined governments, there is a need for a framework capable of imposing fiscal discipline. This paper considers an intertemporal assignment, where fiscal policy focuses on long-term objectives and monetary policy on short-term stabilisation. We argue for public sector debt targets as a practical way to achieve such a set up, and an excess debt protocol is constructed to give enforceable form to those targets. The ideas of “fiscal space” and optimal debt levels are used to provide a mechanism for identifying a stable region within which the debt targeting regime should operate. Making these factors explicit would both improve the credibility of planned fiscal policies and reduce risk premia on borrowing costs. We finally show how Europe’s competitiveness pact, and debt restructuring operations, can be used to maximise the available fiscal space.     

Debt Sustainability and the Ongoing Financial Crisis: The Case of IDA‐only African Countries*

Abstract: The ongoing financial crisis has raised concerns in many circles about a potential future wave of sovereign defaults spreading among developing countries and, therefore, the need for additional rounds of debt relief in poor indebted countries. This paper addresses this issue for a group of 31 International Development Association (IDA)‐only African countries, which are in a fragile debt situation. Using the most recent debt sustainability analyses (DSAs) undertaken for these countries by the World Bank and the IMF, this paper studies the potential adverse effect of the ongoing financial crisis on the countries’ debt burden indicators, as a function of the depth and length of the crisis. The latter is measured by the fall and the duration of such fall in exports revenues, and by the terms at which each country can obtain financing to muddle through the crisis period. The analysis underscores the importance of concessional financing for these countries, especially if the crisis proves to be a protracted one. This, because the likelihood of countries being able to muddle through the crisis without defaulting on their external debt decreases with the hardening of the financial conditions faced by them — alternatively, the size of the downsizing in domestic (fiscal) expenditures needed to ensure the service of their foreign debts increases with the tightening of financial conditions.     

Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter

Most studies on the relationship between public debt and economic growth implicitly assume homogeneous debt effects across their samples. We –in accordance with recent literature– challenge this view and state that there likely is a great deal of cross-country heterogeneity in that relationship. However, other than scholars assuming that all countries are different, we expect that clusters of countries differ. We identify three country clusters with distinct economic systems: Liberal (Anglo Saxon), Continental (Core EU members) and Nordic (Scandinavian). We argue that different degrees of fiscal uncertainty at comparable levels of public debt between those economic systems constitute a major source of heterogeneity in the debt-growth relationship. Our empirical evidence supports this assumption. Continental countries face more growth reducing public debt effects than especially Liberal countries. There, public debt apparently exerts neutral or even positive growth effects, while for Nordic countries a non-linear relationship is discovered, with negative debt effects kicking in at public debt values of around 60% of GDP.     

Debt targets and fiscal sustainability in an era of monetary independence

This paper investigates how to achieve flexibility in fiscal policy without sacrificing credibility or independence in monetary policy. The idea is to create a framework that generates fewer conflicts between policies but greater discipline within them. We assume an independent central bank and restraints on national fiscal policies. Using a theoretical model, we examine the consequences of assigning leadership to fiscal policies in order to exploit the implicit (but rule based) coordination available under standard transmission mechanisms and to allow priorities and targets to differ between policy makers. This works best when leadership takes the form of a debt rule (with hard or soft targets) to precommit fiscal policies over the longer term; but monetary independence to guarantee the credibility and discipline in the short term policies. Compared to the uncoordinated policies operating in Europe, inflation biases and debt/deficit ratios are both lower for no loss in output volatility. That matches the experience of the UK, an economy whose empirical reaction functions show fiscal leadership. On a wider sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, the gains from debt targeting are estimated at 2–4% of gross domestic product.     

中国财政赤字和国债政策的经济增长效应研究

本文通过构建一个VAR模型,选取财政赤字率和国债负债率为财政政策指标,来分析财政政策对经济增长和通货膨胀的影响。实证显示:财政赤字增加短期能够促进经济增长,但长期对经济增长无效,且不会引起通货膨胀;相反,负债率增加虽在短期内对经济增长影响不明显,但长期具有显著负影响,同时会导致通货紧缩。结论表明,国家应对金融危机的积极财政政策短期是有效刺激经济增长的,但是长期是无效的,尤其是通过大量发行国债弥补赤字扩大财政支出的政策,对经济增长有较大的负作用。因此,本文认为目前政府应该给市场更多自由,减少对市场的政策干预。     

Sustainability of public debt: evidence from Japan before the Second World War1

Japan defaulted on its public debt after the Second World War. This article addresses the question of how Japan lost its ability to sustain its public debt. We explore the sustainability of public debt in Japan before the War. We conduct statistical tests for the relationship between public debt and primary fiscal balance, and find that Japanese public debt was sustainable until 1931, and unsustainable in and after 1932. Narrative modes of analysis indicate that Japan lost its fiscal discipline because of the military's effective veto over budgetary processes and because of the absence of pressure for sound fiscal policy from international financial markets.     

Absence of safe assets and fiscal crisis

This paper develops a fiscal crisis model that explains a mechanism under which low interest rates can coexist with Japan's large outstanding debt. The key idea is that when there is a strong home bias in the asset portfolio of domestic bondholders, these investors turn out to have no access to any assets that hedge fiscal risk. This explains why domestic investors do not request a risk premium on government bonds. In this environment, the interest rate and the default probability are low, and the government can sustain its large debt even under adverse fiscal conditions. As the interest rate does not rise fully to reflect the risk premium, the low interest rate is not always a signal of sound fiscal conditions. The welfare implications of financial market reform are mixed. This reform can improve welfare so long as the government can sustain the debt, but at the same time, it makes it difficult to sustain the debt because the interest rate rises. Quantitative easing is effective in lowering the risk premium.     

中国地方政府债务违约风险评估——基于债务可持续性分析框架

结合中国地方政府财政反应特征,文章在债务可持续性分析框架中,首次识别了基础盈余主动调整的有效性条件作为分析前提,进而完善了债务不可持续性的定义内涵和度量方法,最终建立了地方政府债务违约风险评估模型。凭借此模型,对中国地方政府债务违约风险进行了评估,主要结论如下：在经济增速不稳定背景下,施行顺周期财政政策的中国地方政府,容易落入基础盈余主动调整无效的境况,因而在对地方政府债务可持续性进行分析时,有必要考虑基础盈余主动调整的有效性;通过检验发现,新构造的债务不可持续概率和条件期望债务空间指标,均能较好反映地方政府债务违约风险,而单纯的债务率指标对地方政府债务违约风险无解释力;在2019年,天津、贵州和青海等地已处于财政疲劳引起的债务不可持续状态,内蒙古等六省的条件期望债务空间不足20%,其余省份的条件期望债务空间仍相对充裕;最后,通过考察债务可持续性的改善渠道又进一步发现,财政透明度的提高可有效降低地方政府债务违约风险。     

Debt relief and fiscal sustainability

In this paper I analyze the relationship between fiscal policy,aggregate public sector debt sustainability, and debt relief. I develop a methodology to compute the fiscal policy path that is compatible with aggregate debt sustainability in the post-HIPC era. The model explicitly considers the role of domestic debt and quantifies the extent to which future debt sustainability depends on the availability of concessional loans at subsidized interest rates. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of Nicaragua, a country that in 2002 had one of the highest net present value of public external debt to GDP ratios. JEL no. F3, F34, F35.     

主权政府债务规模影响因素的传导路径及定量分解——以美国为例

本文在前人研究的基础之上,总结了主权政府债务规模变动的主要影响因素及影响路径,并根据建立的政府债务理论模型,利用微分、积分和余值等数学方法将经济增长、通货膨胀、财政赤字及其他非常规财政因素对主权政府实际债务规模的变动进行了定量分解。最后,笔者对两次美国联邦政府债务急剧增长时期(1942～1955年和2007至今)的债务及相关数据进行了实证研究,以印证上述方法,结果发现,财政因素是美国政府债务规模急剧增长的主要原因,而面对同期的经济萧条和较高的债务负担,通货膨胀成为了政府削减债务最重要的工具。     

日本地方债制度及其变革分析

日本地方债发行数量巨大,占国内生产总值比重高,已经成为地方债依存比重最高的发达国家。由地方债许可制、地方财政计划以及财政再建团体制度构建起来的日本地方债制度是一种由国家主导的债务运行模式。其显著特点是地方债的资金来源结构严重依赖政府资金,通过政府交付税来确保地方债本利偿还财源,从而保证了债务的安全性,降低了债务风险,成为一种成本较低的融资方式。但也因此加重了中央政府的财政负担,弱化了监督动因,从而使日本地方债陷入"预算软弱约束"之中。其改革方向和总体趋势是市场化,在增强地方自立的背景下,建立与地方财政力相适应的举债制度,以提高地方财政的运行效率。