新型工业化选择哪条路更好--访中国人民大学商学院贸易经济系主任谷克鉴

一进入2004年,产业投资就掀起阵阵热潮。中国的产业投资究竟路在何方?外资的进入会对我们造成哪些影响?面对国外资本的进入,我们该如何进行产业结构调整,如何实现新型工业化呢?就此,我们采访了中国人民大学商学院教授、博士生导师、贸易经济系主任谷克鉴教授。谷教授现为中国国际贸易学会常务理事、中国商业经济学会常务理事、中国市场学会常务理事,曾担任中南财经大学工商管理学院院长,著有《HBS推断的验证与拓展:中国国民与外贸部门出口波动差异的实证分析》,获得了“安子介国际贸易研究奖”优秀论文一等奖;他的《制度变迁与市场国际化》获得了“安子介国际贸易研究奖”优秀著作奖和“第二届全国高校人文社会科学研究优秀成果奖”著作奖     

The numeraire portfolio: a new perspective on financial theory

The numeraire portfolio, also called the optimal growth portfolio, allows simple derivations of the main results of financial theory. The prices of self financing portfolios, when the optimal growth portfolio is the numeraire, are martingales in the ‘true’ (historical) probability. Given the dynamics of the traded securities, the composition of the numeraire portfolio as well as its value are easily computable. Among its numerous properties, the numeraire portfolio is instantaneously mean variance efficient. This key feature allows a simple derivation of standard continuous time CAPM, CCAPM, APT and contingent claim pricing. Moreover, since the Radon-Nikodym derivatives of the usual martingale measures are very simple functions of the numeraire portfolio, the latter provides a convenient link between the standard Capital Market Theory a la Merton and the probabilistic approach a la Harrison-Kreps-Pliska.     

Nuclear power in Britain: The case for a new approach

Recent criticisms point to the way British nuclear policy has been made up of a succession of poor decisions badly arrived at. But these criticisms do not go to the heart of the matter. A new approach is needed to decision‐taking in this area, and in energy policy as a whole.     

The second fundamental theorem of asset pricing: a new approach

This article presents a new definition of market completenessthat is independent of the notions of no arbitrage and equivalentmartingale measures. Our definition has many advantages, allshown herein. First, it preserves the Second Fundamental Theoremof Asset Pricing, even in complex economies. Second, under ourdefinition, the market can be complete yet arbitrage opportunitiesexist. This is important in practice, and stands in contrastto the traditional definitions. Third, under the assumptionsof no arbitrage and when used in the standard models, our definitionis equivalent to the traditional one.     

The non-neutrality of debt in investment timing: a new NPV rule

Summary Limited liability debt financing of irreversible investments can affect investment timing through an entrepreneur’s option value, even after compensating a lender for expected default losses. This non-neutrality of debt arises from an entrepreneur’s unique investment opportunity, and it is shown in a standard model of irreversible investment that includes the equilibrium effect of a competitive lending sector. The analysis is partial, in that it takes as exogenously given an entrepreneur’s use of debt. Intuitively, limited liability lowers downside risk for the entrepreneur by truncating the lower tail of risks, and lowers the investment threshold. Compensating the lender for expected default losses reduces project profitability to the entrepreneur, and increases the investment threshold. The net effect is negative, because lower downside risk has an additional impact on the option value of delaying investment. The standard NPV rule in real options theory implicitly assumes debt to be neutral. With non-neutrality of debt, an investment threshold is higher than investment cost, but lower than the standard NPV rule. Comparisons with other standard investment thresholds show similar relationships.     

Where is globalization taking us? : Why we need a new ‘Bretton Woods’

While globalization brings global increases in income in the aggregate, it also threatens to leave much of humankind in conditions of absolute poverty and to widen the gap between rich and poor. These trends are likely to be accentuated with the advent of the information/knowledge economy, the increasing power of multinationals, and the growing severity of environmental constraints. This article sketches these trends and then addresses the question: what are the necessary conditions for the attainment of a growing global economy with equity and acceptable environmental standards? It then tackles the issue of the prospects for these conditions to be realized under the prevailing global economic/financial system.     

The new landscape: a fresh look at long-term incentives for corporate America

Today's environment presents us with a torrent of issues surrounding the design and management of long-term and equity-related incentives, both for top executives and employees at large. This article reviews, at a conceptual level, the most important characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the various principal long-term incentive types as they appear from key perspectives. The authors conclude with predictions about the future of long-term and equity-related incentives.     

人民币／美元双边汇率不能替代人民币汇率

用人民币/美元双边汇率替代人民币汇率是当前普遍存在的现象。然而,用人民币/美元双边汇率替代人民币汇率不适用于汇改后的人民币汇率制度。中美双边贸易权重也不足以让人民币/美元双边汇率替代人民币汇率。汇改后人民币/美元双边汇率的走势在人民币汇率体系中也不具有代表性。建议中国人民银行尽快计算并公布人民币实际有效汇率,以弥补用人民币/美元双边汇率替代人民币汇率的不足。     

The emergence of a new international competitor in the commercial aircraft sector: The China syndrome

This paper examines China's emerging industrial and international trade potential within the commercial aerospace sector. Decades of industrial offset agreements between Western aerospace companies and Chinese subcontractors have endowed China with the technological fundamentals required to build commercial passenger jets. These offset agreements were designed to secure sales of Western-built aircraft to China, and often involved critical streams of knowledge transfer from prime contractors to Chinese suppliers. By now, China has acquired virtually all of the technological know-how to enter the commercial aircraft market on an internationally competitive basis. The implications for Western producers are presumably not bright, as China's unit costs are extraordinarily low. Further, it is clear that China's first regional jet has been designed to lead to a replacement for the Boeing 737. Looking to the future, I contend that China will challenge Airbus and Boeing in the market for medium-to-large passenger jets by the mid-2020s.     

The revaluation of assets as a signalling device: a theoretical and an empirical analysis

In many countries, firms can choose whether or not to report a revaluation in the financial statements. An analytical model is developed to indicate conditions in which it is more likely that successful firms will choose not to revalue assets as a credible signal to potential investors. These industry settings include a high variance in performance and low equity-to-debt ratios. The empirical results for Belgium confirm that successful firms are less likely to revalue assets in those industries. However, only the revaluation of fixed tangible assets and not financial assets seems to be a credible signal. Finally, the results support the choice to revalue, but not the amount of revaluation, as a signalling device.     

No one is perfect: The limits of transparency and an ethic for ‘intelligent’ accountability

This paper draws on the work of Butler [Butler, J. (2005). Giving an account of oneself. New York: Fordham University Press] to develop a critique of the operation and adequacy of transparency as a form of accountability. The paper begins with an exploration of accountability as subjection explored through Lacan’s account of the social dynamics of recognition, and Freud’s account of guilt. This analysis then informs an exploration of what is argued to be our typically ambivalent embrace of transparency as a form of accountability. The final section of the paper investigates the potential for a more ‘intelligent’ form of accountability, grounded in an ethic of humility and generosity, made possible by a conscious acknowledgement of the ways in which I can never quite know what it is that I am doing.     

The stop-loss start-gain paradox and option valuation: a new decomposition into intrinsic and time value

The downside risk in a leveraged stock position can be eliminatedby using stop-loss orders. The upside potential of such a positioncan be captured using contingent buy orders. The terminal payoffto this stop-loss start-gain strategy is identical to that ofa call option, but the strategy costs less initially. This articleresolves this paradox by showing that the strategy is not self-financingfor continuous stock-price processes of unbounded variation.The resolution of the paradox leads to a new decomposition ofan option's price into its intrinsic and time value. When thestock price follows geometric Brownian motion, this decompositionis proven to be mathematically equivalent to the Black-Scholes(1973) formula.     

Fine‐Tuning a Corporate Hedging Portfolio: The Case of an Airline

Industrial companies typically face a multitude of risks that could cause significant fluctuations in their cash flow. This is a case study of the hedging strategy adopted by an international air carrier to manage its jet‐fuel price exposure. The airline's hedging approach uses “strips” of monthly collars constructed with Asian options whose payoffs are based on average of “within‐prompt‐month” oil prices. Using the carrier's own implicit objective function based on an annual granularity, the authors show how the air carrier could fine‐tune its current hedge portfolio by adding tailored exotic options. The article describes annual average‐price options, provides an explicit valuation of them, and considers how such instruments may affect corporate liquidity. Consistent with its annual objective function, the airline made this exotic derivative the central tool to hedge across all potential realized values of annual jet‐fuel spot prices. The authors believe this modified portfolio is better suited to address the firm's hedging cost and its overall exposure to jet‐fuel price fluctuations.     

The effectiveness of interactive professional learning experiences as a pedagogical tool: Evidence from an audit setting

This paper describes an interactive professional learning experience (IPLE) and provides guidance for implementing an IPLE in an audit classroom. The IPLE described in this paper exposes students to a realistic practice environment within the classroom by bringing practitioners together with students in a professional supervisory setting. Practitioners review students’ work and then meet with students one-on-one to provide feedback on their work. We also document evidence of the pedagogical value of an IPLE by using a between-subjects experimental design in which learning outcomes for participants are compared to a control group that received the same instructions and completed the same written assignment, but did not participate in the professional interaction. In addition, pre- and posttests of students’ audit knowledge allowed for a within-subjects self-assessment of knowledge acquisition. The results strongly suggest that participation in the IPLE improves students’ performance on a skills test of relevant audit material and increases their self-perceptions of knowledge gained. In addition, results indicate that both students and audit professionals consider the IPLE a positive professional learning experience.     

The “new public management” in the 1980s: Variations on a theme

Changes in public sector accounting in a number of OECD countries over the 1980s were central to the rise of the “New Public Management” (NPM) and its associated doctrines of public accountability and organizational best practice. This paper discusses the rise of NPM as an alternative to the tradition of public accountability embodied in progressive-era public administration ideas. It argues that, in spite of allegations of internationalization and the adoption of a new global paradigm in public management, there was considerable variation in the extent to which different OECD countries adopted NPM over the 1980s. It further argues that conventional explanations of the rise of NPM (“Englishness”, party political incumbency, economic performance record and government size) seem hard to sustain even from a relatively brief inspection of such cross-national data as are available, and that an explanation based on initial endowment may give us a different perspective on those changes.     

The development,implementation and operation of an undergraduate distance learning module in auditing: a teaching note

The development of a distance learning module, to be undertaken by students whilst out on work experience in a thick sandwich degree programme, was driven by the motive to maximize the students' time on placement, rather than the belief that the module could be more effectively taught in this manner. However, with many institutions offering work placement as an optional extension within a degree programme, our experiences may pave the way for introducing some academic input into the work placement. This paper outlines the development and operation of an auditing distance learning module, which is undertaken by students during their placement year in an Accounting and Finance degree in Scotland. The pitfalls of distance learning have been well documented and the profile of the cohort which would undertake the course exacerbated concerns. However, the Course Team have produced a model that has been implemented and is currently operating in a manner that has largely satisfied all respective stakeholders, (namely students, educators, employers, professional bodies, and external examiners). The data for the review was generated through informal discussions with the Course Team and a selection of employers. Focus groups with students were also conducted. These were deliberately unstructured in nature to facilitate the use of dialogue with which the participants were familiar. The rationale for this was to allow participants to identify and highlight salient issues as perceived by them, rather than to answer specific questions on topics that the authors believed to be of relevance.     

The brain, the mind, and societal and cultural learning: the emergence of a new paradigm of futures research

Research reveals that historical episodes of societal and cultural change have always been mediated by out groups which seek direct experience of reality and the personal transformation it entrains. The strictly rationalist model of cultural change used in Futures Research is out of step with this fact. A new model of cultural change is proposed and its implications for Futures Research discussed. The main implications are: Futures Research should be layered, in the sense that the various levels of mental modality should be made explicit in any piece of research; the dynamics of interaction between these layers needs to be explored: a complete Futures program would combine analysis of the inner lives of humans with scientific and social scientific data.