An Examination of Mortgage Debt Characteristics and Financial Risk among Multifamily Properties

Using the 1996 Property Owners and Managers Survey (POMS), the authors (1) examine the mortgage debt characteristics of multifamily properties; (2) estimate the size and potential for growth of the multifamily mortgage debt market; and (3) examine the financial characteristics of multifamily properties, each with particular attention to differences by property size. While the authors find that the POMS suffers from severe missing value problems, their analysis indicates large differences in the likelihood that a property has a mortgage, the interest rate conditional on having a mortgage, and indicators of financial distress among properties of different size. They also find that smaller properties, with large potential for growth in multifamily mortgage lending, have much higher concentrations of low- to moderate-income tenants but that larger properties provide the bulk of units that serve these renters.     

Spillover effects of subprime mortgage originations: The effects of single-family mortgage credit expansion on the multifamily rental market

The dramatic expansion in subprime mortgage credit fueled a remarkable boom and bust in the US housing market and created a global financial crisis. Even though considerable research examines the housing and mortgage markets during the previous decade, how the expansion in mortgage credit affected the rental market remains unclear; and yet, over 30 percent of all U.S. households reside in the rental market. Our study fills this gap by showing how the multifamily rental market was adversely affected by the development of subprime lending in the single-family market before the advent of the 2007/2008 subprime induced financial crisis. We provide evidence for a fundamentals based linkage by which the effect of an innovation in one market (i.e, the growth in subprime mortgage originations) is propagated through to another market. Using a large database of residential rental lease payment records, our results confirm that the expansion in subprime lending corresponds with an overall decline in the quality of rental payments. Finally, we present evidence showing that the financial performance of multifamily rental properties reflected the increase in rental lease defaults.     

Income Distribution in the Third World: Its Estimation Via Proxy Data

A bstract . A two-Stage least squares estimate of the distribution of income in the Third World is derived in this paper using the per capita ownership of cars, infant mortality rates, and the average daily caloric requirement along with the per capita Gross Domestic Product. Previous work by Kitznets 1955 had established a relationship between the distribution of income and GDP/CAP, but with the inclusion of the three additional "proxy" variables, the distribution of income is estimated with a great deal more precision. For example, the R-squared for the estimate of the share of income earned by the poorest 20% of households increases from 0.30 to 0.68 by incorporating the proxy variables.
Using the parameters estimated via two-stage least squares on a set of 23 countries for which the distribution of income Is known, the paper then estimates the distribution of income for a set of 43 countries for which this data is unknown. The results indicate that countries like Singapore and Sri Lanka have relatively even distributions of income for their stage of development, and countries like Brazil, Kenya, Bolivia , and Gautemala have highly skewed distributions of income for their level of GDP/CAP.     

Income: the real and the incomparable

The main propositions of this paper are: inter-temporal and interspatial comparisons lose meaning when the arrays of goods and services being priced are too dissimilar; the composition and pricing of GDP are a function of income distribution; income tends to circulate among persons of broadly similar wealth and culture; a significant part of what is recorded as final household expenditure is intermediate in nature; public expenditure is intrinsically intermediate, and poses a variety of conceptual difficulties. Growth is associated with changes which undermine the validity of its measurement.     

Nonparametric estimation of the impact of taxes on female labor supply

This paper proposes a simple extension of nonparametric estimation methods for nonlinear budget‐set models derived in Blomquist and Newey ( 2002 ) to censored dependent variables. The nonparametric method is applied to estimate female labor supply elasticities using data on married women from the 1985 and 1989 waves of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, exploiting the substantial variation in budget sets caused by the Tax Reform Act of 1986 as a source of identification. The estimated wage elasticities from this new method are 0.56 overall and 0.27 on the intensive margin. The income elasticity estimates are close to ? 0.67 overall and ? 0.13 on the intensive margin. Compared with the linear labor supply model, the estimated elasticities are usually larger for the nonparametric specifications that account for nonlinear budget sets. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reducing government debt in the presence of inequality

What are the welfare effects of government debt? In particular, what are the welfare consequences of government debt reductions? We answer these questions with the help of an incomplete markets economy with production. Households are subject to uninsurable income shocks. We make several contributions. First, by targeting the skewed wealth and earnings distribution of the US economy in our calibration, we identify inequality as the major driver of the welfare effects of public debt/GDP changes. Second, we show that in order to fully gauge the welfare consequences and the political feasibility of government debt changes, it is crucial to consider the transitional dynamics between stationary equilibria. Our results therefore have important implications for the design of debt reduction policies. Since the skewed wealth distribution generates a large fraction of borrowing-constrained households, a public debt reduction should be non-linear, such that the tax burden is postponed into the future.     

Causal ordering and ‘The bank lending channel’

The bank lending channel implies the Federal Reserve can influence real income by controlling the level of intermediated loans. Using the notion of causality developed by Simon (1953) and the causal order methodology developed by Hoover (1990), I test for an operative bank lending channel in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. I find loans did cause real income; there is evidence that a bank lending channel did exist in the 1960s. The data appears to show, however, that by the early 1990s the bank lending channel was no longer operative. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contributions of state to regional income dispersion

This paper examines proportionate contributions of states to total income dispersion among the states within the regions in the United States from 1929 to 1997. The criterion for equitable distribution is that each state receices a share of the total population comparable to its share of income. The coefficient of variation for each region on a yearly basis is employed. The results provide evidence for minor differences in contribution to regional income dispersion between component states.     

Macroeconomic implications of mortgage loan requirements: an agent-based approach

It is a well-known fact that the housing market, with its associated mortgage securities, plays a crucial role in modern economies. The recent crisis of 2007, triggered by the U.S. real estate bubble, confirms this key role and suggests the importance of regulating mortgage lending. This paper investigates these issues by designing a housing market with a linked mortgage lending instrument in the Eurace agent-based model. Our results show that the presence of a housing market in the model has relevant macroeconomic implications, driven mainly by the additional amount of endogenous money injected into the economy by new mortgages. This additional money generally helps to support and stabilize aggregated demand, thus improving the main economic indicators. However, if the regulation of mortgage lending is too lax, involving an increase in the debt-service-to-income ratio (DSTI), then the additional supply of mortgages no longer enhances macroeconomic performance, and the stability of the economic system is undermined. Based on a number of recent discussions, a regulation of stock control that targets households’ net wealth (a stock), rather than income (a flow) is designed and analyzed. The results show that regulation of stock control can be combined effectively with DSTI to increase the stability of the housing market and the economy as a whole. Interestingly, the regulation based on stock control also directly affects mortgage distribution among households, avoiding excessive concentration. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that the use of a mild flow control regulation, coupled with a stricter stock control measure, fosters sustainable growth and eases first-time buyers access to the housing market, encouraging homeownership.

     

货币政策和居民收入对房价影响的实证分析

近年来,房地产价格持续快速增长,影响房价的因素有很多,文章以辽宁省为例,建立贷款利率、货币供应量、城镇居民可支配收入和房屋销售价格的VAR模型,进行实证研究。利用EVIEWS7.0软件对模型进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,得出贷款利率、货币供应量和居民可支配收入均对房价产生正向影响,并且居民可支配收入的贡献度最强,五年以上贷款利率贡献度最弱。     

Correlated income shocks and excess smoothness of consumption

In the literature, econometricians typically assume that household income is the sum of a random walk permanent component and a transitory component, with uncorrelated permanent and transitory shocks. Using data on realized individual incomes and individual expectations of future incomes from the Survey of Italian Households׳ Income and Wealth, I find that permanent and transitory shocks are negatively correlated. Relaxing the assumption of no correlation between the shocks, I explore the effects of correlated income shocks on the estimated consumption insurance against permanent and transitory shocks, and consumption smoothness using a life-cycle model with self-insurance calibrated to U.S. data. Negatively correlated income shocks result in smoother consumption, and upward-biased estimates of the insurance against transitory (and permanent when borrowing constraints are not tight) income shocks. While the life-cycle model with negatively correlated shocks fits well the sensitivity of consumption to current income shocks observed in U.S. data, it falls short of explaining the sensitivity of consumption to income shocks cumulated over a longer horizon.     

Some Early Multiplier Models of the Relationship between Income Distribution and Production Structure

Early efforts to endogenize consumption and hence to model the inter-relationships between production structures and income distribution via multiplier models are reviewed in this paper. It is suggested that, unlike the multipliers in Pyatt et al. (1973), the so-called Miyazawa multipliers cannot be sustained in the context of a model of the distribution of income among institutions (households, companies, etc) i.e. the institutional distribution of income. They can, however, be sustained within a model of the distribution of income among factors, i.e. the factorial distribution of income. Both distributions are modelled by Pyatt & Round (1979) which therefore provides a more general framework for analysing the relationship between the distribution of income and the structure of production.     

The demand for rental housing: Evidence from the Housing Allowance Demand Experiment

This paper provides new evidence on the price and income elasticities of demand for rental housing by low income households. Housing expenditures of households participating in the Housing Allowance Demand Experiment and receiving housing allowances in the form of a proportional rent rebate are analyzed. These rent rebates experimentally vary the effective relative price of housing and thus enable estimation of the price elasticities. Natural income variation enables estimation of income elasticities. Analysis is carried out using two functional forms and a variety of models of housing dynamics. The estimated income and price elasticities of demand are 0.36 and −0.22, respectively. When the sample is restricted to include only households headed by couples, the elasticity estimates are 0.47 for income and −0.36 for price. These estimates are lower (in absolute value) than have been previously estimated and it is suggested that this may be due to the low-income nature of the sample.     

Demand for World Bank lending

This paper attempts to quantify the relevance of crisis lending in IBRD and IDA lending commitments. It finds that IBRD and IDA lending commitments are positively related to an increase in debt service payments and inversely related to the level of reserves of the borrowing country. These two variables explain a large part of the variation in IBRD and IDA lending commitments – adjustment lending as well as project lending – not only since the Asian crisis, but also during tranquil times over the last two decades. This finding implies that bridging the financing gap has been an important factor affecting developing countries’ decision to seek financial help from the Bank. While borrowing for servicing debt during a crisis is consistent with the World Bank's goal of poverty reduction and assisting countries without access to financial markets, such borrowing during tranquil times may conflict with these goals.     

Capital,credit constraints and the comovement between consumer durables and nondurables

Evidence indicates that consumer durables are more flexibly priced than nondurable goods and services. In otherwise standard two-sector neoclassical sticky-price models with flexible durable prices, following monetary tightening, nondurables decrease but consumer durables increase. Friction in lending between households can resolve the comovement problem if durable prices are sticky. However, if durable prices are flexible, friction in lending fails to generate joint decline. This paper resolves the co-movement problem by adding capital into a model with flexible durable prices and friction in lending. When capital is needed in production, monetary tightening reduces the relative price of durables which induces investment and decreases firms' real profits in the short run. Due to fewer profits remitted from firms, savers have a lower disposable income and cannot increase expenditures on consumer durables as much as otherwise. As a consequence, aggregate consumer durables decrease and there is a joint decline of nondurables and consumer durables.     

The economics of diamond price movements

Diamonds are traditionally classified into three different market segments —industrial, jewellery and investment. The empirical findings support the argument that diamond prices of these three group types respond differently to business cycles. Industrial diamond prices, especially those of natural stones, have been found to be influenced by the level of economic activity in general and the volume of manufacturing production in partiular. However, the price of synthetic diamonds, especially in grit form, have declined irrespective of the business cycle as a result of technological developments and the expansion of the market which enabled producers to gait scale advantages. Prices of jewellery diamonds have been found to be most highly correlated with disposable income. As could be expected, these price have also been found to be positively correlated with inflation rates and negatively correlated with real interest rates. Prices of investment diamonds have been found to be particularly sensitive to real interest rates, to the value of the exchange rates of the US dollar and, like other gems, to disposable income. The paper also describes and discusses the activity in various diamond markets and the business policy of De Beers, the ‘king’ of the rough diamonds.     

Renter Mobility and Multifamily Mortgage Default Risk

Renter mobility is a major concern for the performance of multifamily mortgages. If enough new renters are not found to replace those that move, vacancy rates can quickly escalate to where cash flows are negative and property mortgages are in jeopardy. In this study we examine how differences in renter mobility patterns by property type can affect mortgage credit risk within submarkets of an MSA. We expand the default model developed by Goldberg and Capone (2000) to use unique distributions of rental unit turnover and vacancy durations for large and small multifamily rental properties. Monte Carlo simulations then show how credit risk on multifamily mortgages is affected if owners of small properties are able to keep tenants longer than owners of larger properties can. The model can be used to explore other potential intra-MSA differences in property market dynamics.     

Land rent and housing policy: a case study of the San Francisco Bay area rental housing market

In the San Francisco Bay Area, where residential rent is among the highest in the United States, an analysis of data from several sources demonstrates that high rent cannot be accounted for by higher quality, higher operating costs, or higher construction costs. At least one-third of the total rent paid is land rent. Despite increases in real incomes, very-low-income tenants in the Bay Area today have less income remaining after payment of rent than tenants did in 1960. High land rent is a long-term feature of the Bay Area rental market that results mostly from its geography, the density of its urban centers, and a strong economy, rather than from regulatory barriers to new multifamily construction. Deregulation is not a sufficient response to the effects of land rent on low-income tenants. Government should subsidize non-profit housing organizations, particularly land trusts that remove residential land from the market. Taxes on land rent would be a particularly appropriate funding source.     

Household Expenditure Patterns for Housing Attributes: A Linear Expenditure System with Hedonic Prices

The main objective of this research is to demonstrate a new approach to how income and own-price elasticities for housing attributes can be estimated. The methodology used is a combination of the hedonic technique and a complete system of household expenditures, which relies on an additive utility function. However, here we allow the utility parameters to vary with family size. The empirical results of a case study show that family size plays a significant role when estimating the elasticities. Furthermore, the housing attributes of living area and absence of traffic noise are more income elastic than those of lot size and indoor quality. All the income elasticities are positively correlated with income and family size but negatively with down payment.     

An analysis of the bounds for the Gini coefficient

The bounds on the Gini coefficient obtained by Gastwirth for the case of grouped data are considered. While the population bounds will always include the value of the population Gini coefficient and the estimated bounds will always include a suitably chosen estimate of the Gini coefficient, estimated bounds need not include the value of the population Gini coefficient.The distributions of the estimators of the bounds are considered and it is shown that a failure to take account of sampling variation can lead to very misleading results. In fact, increasing the number of income groups used tends to decrease the difference between the bounds, but the relative frequency with which the estimated bounds includes the population Gini coefficient decreases. The relationship between sample size, the nature of income groups and estimator precision is considered.