Trade, Human Capital, and Technology Spillovers: an Industry-level Analysis

This paper studies whether trade promotes North–South and South–South technology spillovers at the industry level, and how the absorptive capacity of the South affects the impact of the technology spillovers. Using data from 16 manufacturing industries in 25 developing countries from 1976 to 1998, the paper shows: (i) North–South trade‐related R&D has a substantial impact on total factor productivity in the South; (ii) South–South trade‐related R&D also promotes technology spillovers but with a smaller magnitude; and (iii) human capital is very important in facilitating North–South and South–South technology spillovers: an increase in human capital could lead to over three times the size of technology spillovers from an increase in trade‐related foreign R&D.     

International R&D Spillovers: Trade,FDI, and Information Technology as Spillover Channels*

With the rapid pace of economic integration, the productivity of a country depends not only on domestic R&D, but also on foreign R&D through technology diffusion across countries. The advancement of information technology (IT) has made the international transmission of knowledge faster and more efficient, providing an important channel for international R&D spillovers. This paper investigates three channels of international R&D spillovers: trade, FDI, and information technology. Applying panel cointegration and dynamic OLS analysis to the data for 21 OECD countries plus Israel during the period from 1981 to 1998, we find that bilateral trade remains an important conduit for international R&D spillovers. Although bilateral FDI is found to be positively related to international R&D spillovers, their impact on productivity growth is relatively small. We also find that the development of information technology has played a more important role in international R&D spillovers and productivity growth in recent years.     

国际生产分割的生产率效应

国际生产分割对参与国的生产率产生了重要影响。本文使用符合中国特点的生产分割指标考察了中国参与国际生产分割对于工业行业生产率的影响。研究结果表明:中国参与生产分割有利于生产率的提高;非加工贸易形式的生产分割对生产率的提升作用要高于加工贸易形式的生产分割;生产分割提高生产率的效果对不同行业是不同的,中低技术行业最为明显,其次是高技术行业,最低为初级产品、劳动和资源密集部门;从发达国家承接的生产分割对生产率的提升作用要大于从非发达国家承接的生产分割。     

International technology diffusion and economic growth: Explaining the spillover benefits to developing countries

Technology spillovers offer great opportunities for economic growth to developing countries that do little, if any, R&D activity. This paper explores the extent to which these countries benefit from foreign technology, the diffusion mechanisms involved, and the factors that shape their absorption capabilities. Results based on a non-stationary panel of 55 developing countries indicate that the benefits are quite substantial: a ten-percent increase in foreign R&D stock is translated into more than a two-percent increase in aggregate productivity. Of the diffusion channels considered, imports appear to be more conducive to R&D spillover. In addition, developing countries that enjoy larger benefits tend to exhibit larger stock of human capital, more openness to trade and foreign activities, and stronger institutions. These North–South R&D spillovers, although larger than previously suggested, appear less strong than North–North spillovers, adding to the general literature on economic divergence between developed and developing countries.     

Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth

This paper presents a trade model with firm‐level productivity differences and R&D‐driven growth. Trade liberalization causes the least productive firms to exit but also slows the development of new products. The overall effect on productivity growth depends on the size of intertemporal knowledge spillovers in R&D. When these spillovers are relatively weak, then trade liberalization promotes productivity growth in the short run and makes consumers better off in the long run. However, when these spillovers are relatively strong, then trade liberalization retards productivity growth in the short run and makes consumers worse off in the long run.     

Research and development and labour productivity: do high-tech firms exhibit labour- or capital-saving technical change?

Employment and output in the advanced technology sectors have generally exhibited above-average growth for more than two decades. While this industry accounts for a relatively small share of total employment, the majority of private sector research and development (R&D) expenditures in the US is concentrated within seven sub-sectors. However, little attention has been paid as to whether high-tech productivity exhibits Hicksian capital or labour ‘savings’ bias or tendency to displace either factor input over time. Biased technical change can occur as economies transition between growth regimes. An augmented production function is employed to analyse the additional impact of R&D activity on firm-level labour productivity. A panel data set comprised of high-tech firms located across the advanced economies, China and India from 1990 to 2013 is used in the analysis. Labour-saving technical change was present across the advanced technology sectors and most countries. The expanded models of labour productivity that used fixed effects with lagged regressors confirmed the prior results as well as finding that R&D per employee, relative R&D intensity and firm market share contribute to firm-level labour productivity growth across countries and sectors. Additional support was found for diminishing returns to scale but not for R&D spillover effects.     

An empirical note on international R&D spillovers

Whether international R&D spillovers are global and trade-related is still a debated issue. By adopting two specifications that nest models previously estimated in the literature, we test the hypothesis that international R&D spillovers are global and trade-unrelated for a sample of OECD countries over the period 1971–2004. In particular, via a randomization exercise, we reject the null hypothesis of a “global pool of technology” and show that there are partitions of countries associated with relatively strong/weak knowledge spillovers. Then, we estimate a nonlinear specification that includes simultaneously geographical distance and international trade among the determinants of domestic TFP. We find robust evidence that both factors affect how foreign knowledge impacts on the domestic productivity of each recipient country.     

Spillovers from Foreign Exporters

We develop a general equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous firms that accounts for productivity spillovers transmitted by foreign exporters. Everything else equal, stronger spillovers increase welfare. We embed the model framework into a trade policy scenario where countries strategically set inter‐country variable trade costs for the trading partner. In the strategic Nash‐equilibrium policy, governments trade‐off welfare gains from protectionism and those that are due to spillovers from foreign exporters. The equilibrium degree of protectionism is decreasing in the strength of the spillover. Policy coordination induces welfare gains but these gains can be hump‐shaped in the spillover strength.     

Escaping the Middle‐Income Trap in Southeast Asia: Micro Evidence on Innovation,Productivity, and Globalization

Microdata studies on innovation, productivity, and globalization are relatively new to the Southeast Asian region. Evidence from microdata studies in middle‐income countries provide valuable evidence for policymaking aimed at graduating these countries to high‐income status. Globalization via trade and foreign direct investment should continue to be important development strategies. A more nuanced approach focusing on exporters and potential exporters, especially SMEs, are likely to be needed. The extent of foreign participation is also likely to have important implications for technological spillovers.     

世界高技术产品贸易格局及中国的贸易地位分析

为了解世界各国高技术产品贸易的真实地位,推动中国高技术产品贸易发展,文章基于2000-2016年82个高技术产品主要贸易国家的双边贸易数据,运用社会网络分析方法分析世界高技术产品贸易网络特征及中国的贸易地位。研究发现,中心度指数体现了包括中国在内的48个国家和地区拥有密切的贸易往来关系;点强度指数体现了贸易强度排名靠前的国家相对稳定,各国差距不断缩小;结构洞指数体现了各国间贸易关系的多元性即网络异质性不断变化。中国虽然具有较密切的贸易关系和较高的贸易强度,但是其贸易网络分布较为集中,网络异质性依然有待提高。为应对贸易摩擦,提高高技术产品贸易地位,中国应注重优化贸易结构、加强自主创新能力以及创新合作水平,从而降低贸易风险、提高产品质量和优化贸易环境。     

Industrial Diversity, Trade Patterns, and Productivity Convergence

Recent developments in economic integration show rather diverse patterns of integration in the world economy. Some countries remain predominantly in the low-tech industries whereas other countries succeed in becoming competitive in high-tech industries as well. The authors postulate that a country positioning itself at the lower end of the spectrum of high-tech industries is more favorable to its long-term development than aiming at the upper end of low-tech industries. They argue that countries which specialize in the lower end of the medium–high-tech activities are rewarded by faster productivity increases also in the upper end of the high-tech industries. In contrast, early specialization in medium–low-tech branches yields positive spillovers, mainly in the low-tech sector, which is not conducive to increasing activity in high-tech industries. The authors sketch a theoretical outline of this idea and present econometric results, including four aggregate manufacturing branches across 37 countries.     

Do vertical spillovers differ by investors’ productivity? Theory and evidence from Vietnam

Developing countries are eager to host foreign direct investment to receive positive technology spillovers to their local firms. However, what types of foreign firms are desirable for the host country to achieve spillovers best? We address this question using firm‐level panel data from Vietnam to investigate whether foreign Asian investors in downstream sectors with different productivity affect the productivity of local Vietnamese firms in upstream sectors differently. Using endogenous structural breaks, we divide Asian investors into low‐, middle‐, and high‐productivity groups. The results suggest that the presence of the middle group has the strongest positive spillover effect. The differential spillover effects can be explained by a simple model with vertical linkages and productivity‐enhancing investment by local suppliers. The theoretical mechanism is also empirically confirmed.     

Does productivity in Africa benefit from advanced countries’ R&D?

This study employs dynamic ordinary least squares and panel co-integration to estimate advanced countries’ R&D spillover effects on labour productivity in 28 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1992–2011. Results show that African countries that import and receive (technical and non-technical) development aid from advanced countries experience an increase in labour productivity, suggesting that trade and aid are transmitters of foreign R&D. However, the extent to which labour productivity responds to R&D spillovers varies based on the country of origin, where spillovers from the USA have a greater impact compared to those from other advanced countries.     

Catching-up and Regulation in a Two-Sector Small Open Economy

Deregulation is often aimed at reducing mark-up pricing in technologically stagnant sheltered sectors. The paper shows that this may decrease the process of catching-up and welfare since it shifts resources away from R&D-intensive tradables sectors. Catching-up and deregulation are analyzed in an R&D-based growth model that allows for international capital mobility, trade, and spillovers. Knowledge spillovers raise the productivity of R&D in the exposed sector which results in catching-up. In the long run, the economy grows at the exogenous world growth rate. Capital mobility speeds up convergence. Temporary shocks have long-lasting effects as the economy exhibits hysteresis.     

Trade-related R&D Spillovers in Vietnamese Manufacturing

ABSTRACT

This study aims to examine how Vietnamese manufacturing could benefit from R&D investment locally and from OECD countries through trade during a period marked with major trade liberalisations. Using the industry-level data during 2000–2009, it finds that the foreign R&D has accounted for the most part of the R&D spillovers in the sector, with a larger proportion earning from the other foreign industries’ R&D. The domestic industries’ own R&D has improved the sector’s total factor productivity, but in a relatively smaller magnitude compared to the foreign sources. In examining the localised effects of R&D spillovers in Vietnamese manufacturing, the results reiterate the important roles of trade-embedded foreign R&D spillovers from Japan, the US, South Korea, and Germany in the sector’s total factor productivity growth. These findings altogether give support to foreign technology diffusion as a major conduit for growth prospects in Vietnamese manufactures.     

Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms

This paper examines how country, industry, and firm characteristics interact in general equilibrium to determine nations' responses to trade liberalization. When firms possess heterogeneous productivity, countries differ in relative factor abundance, and industries vary in factor intensity, falling trade costs induce reallocations of resources both within and across industries and countries. These reallocations generate substantial job turnover in all sectors, spur relatively more creative destruction in comparative advantage industries than in comparative disadvantage industries, and magnify ex ante comparative advantage to create additional welfare gains from trade. The improvements in aggregate productivity as countries liberalize dampen and can even reverse the real-wage losses of scarce factors.     

Trade integration and regional income disparities in a growth model with the service sector and footloose capital

This paper proposes a North–South growth model of endogenous industry location which is consistent with recent empirical work showing that regional income disparities have increased in many countries with the process of trade integration. The model incorporates a service sector that benefits from intersectoral knowledge spillovers from the manufacturing sector. We find that, when these spillovers are local, trade integration leads to an increase in interregional real income inequality.     

Specific Factors,Learning, and the Dynamics of Trade*

In the postwar period, the volume of trade among developed countries has increased at a much higher rate than GDP. This article presents a dynamic general equilibrium model of trade between developed countries that accounts for this pattern of trade dynamics. Countries trade in goods that use good‐specific skilled labor and unskilled labor as factors of production. Specific skills are learned on the job and there exist positive effects in learning. Small initial differences in the distribution of experts in each country generate an increasing pattern of specialization over time. Knowledge spillovers across sectors are crucial determinants of the trade pattern.     

Trade,Growth, and Environmental Quality*

This paper examines linkages between international trade, environmental degradation, and economic growth in a dynamic North–South trade game. Using a neoclassical production function subject to an endogenously improving technology, North produces manufactured goods by employing labor, capital, and a natural resource that it imports from South. South extracts the resource using raw labor, in the process generating local pollution. We study optimal regional policies in the presence of local pollution and technology spillovers from North to South under both non‐cooperative and cooperative modes of trade. Non‐cooperative trade is inefficient due to stock externalities. Cooperative trade policies are efficient and yet do not benefit North. Both regions gain from improved productivity in North and faster knowledge diffusion to South regardless of the trading regime.     

FDI spillovers in new EU member states

Using an unbalanced panel of firm‐level data in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania, we examine the impact of foreign firms on domestic firms’ productivity. In particular, we try to answer the following research questions: (1) Are there any spillover effects of foreign direct investments (FDI), and if so, are they positive or negative? (2) Are spillover effects more likely to occur within or across sectors? (3) Are the existence, the direction and the magnitude of spillovers conditioned by sector and firm‐specific characteristics? Our findings show that FDI spillovers exist both within and across sectors. The former arise when foreign firms operate in labour‐intensive sectors, while the latter occur when foreign firms operate in high‐tech sectors. Moreover, we find that domestic firm size conditions the exploitation of FDI spillovers even after controlling for absorptive capacity. We also detect a great deal of heterogeneity across countries consistent with the technology gap hypothesis.