Een faktoranalyse van de Nederlandse schuldpolitiek 1953–1971

Summary Over the period 1953-1971 the interdependence of twenty-one variables relating to the issue of the over-all public debt (central and local authorities) is tested against the development of the trade cycle, the over-all budget, interest rates and the capital market. Debt management was constrained by pro-cyclically large budget deficits and a tight capital market in periods of excess demand. In times of slack in the economy and an easy capital market, deficits were relatively small. Efforts to use debt management more activily as an instrument of monetary policy would appear to depend largely on a less pro-cyclical budgetary development.De schrijver is erkentelijk voor de adviezen die hem verstrekt werden door de directeur en medewerkers van het Instituut voor Economisch Onderzoek (I.E.O.) van de Economische Faculteit te Groningen. Voorts maakte de schrijver dankbaar gebruik van aanwijzingen door Dr. S. K. Kuipers en Drs. B. S. Wilpstra, beiden verbonden aan de vakgroep algemene economie van genoemde faculteit, alsmede door zijn huidige collega's op het ministerie van Financiën. Tenslotte verleende de heer H. Tadema, als assistent aan het I.E.O. verbonden, zijn medewerking door de noodzakelijke verbindingen met de TR 4 computer van het Rekencentrum van de Rijksuniversiteit te Groningen te leggen.     

The relation between international capital flows and interest rates: A theoretical analysis

Summary Commonly, macro trade models which analyze the effects of governmental policies assumed that the rate of the international flow of capital is dependent upon international interest rates. This paper demonstrates that such a specification is inconsistent with the assumption of arbitrage in securities internationally.This is demonstrated first within a conventional static macro trade model, second within a class of dynamic models where short-run capital flows, but not total capital flows, depend upon interest rate levels, and, finally, within a general portfolio macro trade framework.We recommend the assumption of international arbitrage behavior.The authors are respectively Visiting Associate Professor of Economics at University of California at Santa Barbara, California and Professor of Economics at Wayne State University. We wish to gratefully acknowledge the suggestions and criticisms of Dr. S. K. Kuipers.     

Reputational recovery under political instability: Public debt in Portugal, 1641–83

This article examines the reputation recovery of Portugal's public debt during the war of liberation against the former Habsburg ruler. Using novel datasets on long- and short-term debt and nominal interest rates, this study provides evidence that the sovereign borrower used debt credibility to build a pact of regime in a revolutionary context with implications for financing the war. The Portuguese kings followed an implicit budget balance rule as a reputational scheme, which made Portugal an exceptional case of military success with a low debt-to-GDP ratio and low interest rates. These conclusions contribute to the literature in various attributes of war finance, debt management, and state-making by showing that default avoidance could be as important to military success as fiscal capacity.     

The (UN)importance of public debt: A review essay

Summary In this article the debate on the consequences of the creation and existence of government debt is reviewed, using two recent books as a guideline. Four issues in particular are discussed: the correct definition and measurement of government debt, the discussion on the (in)effectiveness of fiscal policy, the inflationary consequences of public debt and finally the influence of government deficits on financial markets. It follows from our review of the debate that there exists as yet no consensus among economists on these issues.The author would like to thank Professor S.K. Kuipers, Professor J. Pen, Dr. C.G.M. Sterks and Professor J. Weitenberg for their comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

A demand and supply model of economic growth

Summary A demand and supply model of economic growth has been developed. By means of this model a number of characteristics of the growth process have been investigated. Special attention has been given to the causes and consequences of growth disequilibria and the determinants of income distribution.The analysis leads to the conclusion that three growth situations must be distinguished: output is restricted by effective demand, by effective supply, and by the size of the labour force. The causes of growth disequilibria and the determinants of income distribution differ in each of these three cases. In this respect the model is more general than traditional post-keynesian, neo-keynesian and neo-classical growth models.The author is indebted to Professor Frits J. de Jong for his non-desisting support during the preparation of this paper. He is grateful to Mrs. Gerda H. de Jong of Veendam, The Netherlands, and to Dr. James H. Gapinski, Assistant Professor, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida for kindly improving the English of this article.In many respects this article draws heavily upon my doctoral dissertation:De betekenis van vraag- en aanbodfactoren in groeimodellen met één sector, mimeographed, Groningen, 1970.     

The global monetaristic variant of the monetary approach to the balance of payments: an empirical study of the Netherlands

Summary The global monetaristic variant of the monetary approach in which the characteristic of the balance of payments being an essentially monetary phenomenon comes to the fore most strongly has been tested. Criticism of a theoretical nature regarding the monetary approach appears not to hold good for this variant. From the characteristics a reduced-form equation for the rate of growth of the stock of international monetary reserves has been derived. Moreover, simultaneous-equation systems have been developed to give substance to a possible mutual influencing of the variables in the money stock equation resulting from a sterilization policy. Estimations lead to a rejection of this variant for the Netherlands.My thanks are due to the members of the International Economics Section of Groningen State University for their comments and suggestions.     

A Note on Deficit,Implicit Debt,and Interest Rates

This short note revisits the long-standing issue of the relationship between government borrowings and interest rates using vector autoregression (VAR) models. In particular, we consider the dynamic impacts of both official deficit and implicit debt on the interest rates. Two measures of unfunded Social Security obligations (implicit debt) are examined. The recently developed generalized forecast error variance decompositions, which are invariant to the ordering of variables in VARs, are adopted. We find that temporary shocks to the official deficit do not cause real interest rate changes in the short term but do cause moderate changes in the long term. They have significant impact on nominal interest rates in both short and long horizons. The implicit debt also appears to have some moderate influence on real interest rates at long horizons.     

Employment,welfare and reserve effects of global protection

Summary In this article it is shown that expenditure-switching policies, like exchange rate protection, tariff protection and export subsidizing, might increase the level of employment and welfare in the short run (when indexation of factor prices is absent). Complete indexation of factor prices, however, makes exchange rate protection senseless. In the case of tariff protection, complete indexation will even worsen employment and welfare (protection becomes impoverishing). Only a policy of export subsidies makes sense if employment is to be improved in an indexed economy. This additional employment, however, is paid for with a deterioration of the terms of trade and the risk of retaliation. Therefore, taking the long run view, expenditure switching policies should be rejected for macro-economic purposes. The author is professor of international economics at Tilburg University. He would like to thank Dr. G. van Roij of the department of economics at Tilburg University and an unknown referee for their remarks, which led to an improvement of this article. The author is professor of international economics at Tilburg University. He would like to thank Dr. G. van Roij of the department of economics at Tilburg University and an unknown referee for their remarks, which led to an improvement of this article.     

The macroeconomic impacts of government debt: An empirical analysis of the 1980s and 1990s

This study examines the macroeconomic impacts of government debt. Unlike previous studies, the current study restricts the estimation period to the 1980s and 1990s. The analysis is conducted using variance decompositions and impulse response functions derived from a vector autoregressive model. The results presented here support an extreme form of the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. In this view, wealth falls as government debt rises. Because wealth falls as government debt rises, an increase in government debt leads to decreases in interest rates, output, and the price level.This work was supported by a grant from the Faculty Research and Creative Activities Support Fund of Western Michigan University. The author wishes to thank Nancy S. Barrett, James S. Fackler, W. Douglas McMillin, Susan Pozo, and Paul D. Thistle for comments and suggestions.     

Determinants of public debt maturities

Summary This paper studies financing strategies which underlie the maturity structure of the public debt. Three important objectives for domestic public debt management are distinguished: interest cost reduction, economic stabilization and economic neutrality. The strategies which can be associated with these objectives are incorporated in a simple debt management model, which has been tested empirically for the case of The Netherlands. Variations in debt maturities between 1960 and 1985 appear to be related to changes in capital market conditions, investment preferences and expected real interest rates.I would like to thank Jakob de Haan, Victor Halberstadt, Robert Haveman, Jeroen Kremers, Gusta Renes, Ben van Velthoven and two referees for valuable comments. Research assistance by Marlies Pel is gratefully acknowledged.     

Jelle Zilstra: A versatile economist

Summary In 1983 Dr. Jelle Zijlstra was a member of the board of editors ofDe Economist for 35 years. At the request of his co-editors, this article has been written to put in a clear light the person and work of Dr. Zijlstra. Zijlstra has been a professor of economics, a minister of economic affairs and of finance in several Dutch cabinets, and, from 1967–1981, President of the Netherlands Bank. During these activities he has made important contributions to economic theory and economic policy, both in legislative work and in various publications. In this article his valuable contributions in such different fields as economic competition, economic order, public finance, monetary theory and central banking policy are analyzed. The author comes to the conclusion that Dr. Zijlstra is an original thinker, who has been a stimulating and inspiring contributor to the different fields of economic theory and economic policy in which he has been active. The author thanks Professor P. Hennipman and Professor S. K. Kuipers for their valuable suggestions.     

An economic analysis of fertility

Summary In this article, the results of an empirical application for ten countries of Willis' economic theory of fertility are presented. In a further analysis for The Netherlands the model developed by Willis is confronted with some alternative models. It is concluded that among the models considered the Willis model is the most satisfactory one. However, in conformity with Leibenstein's propostition that economic factors are only relevant with respect to the question whether parents want more than two children, Willis' model proves to offer only an explanation for the question whether a married couple which has already two children wants to have a third child.He is indebted to Mr. F. Aldewereld and Mr. L.F.M. Groot for computational assistance and to Mr. T.J.J. Doodeman, Mrs. Y.K. Grift and Mr. J.J. Schippers for their comments on an earlier draft of this article.     

Inflation,wage bargaining,wage policy and production structure: Theory and empirical results for the Netherlands

Summary Starting from traditional neo-classical results, a theory is developed in which, in addition to prices, labour productivity and unemployment, the degree of unionization, the profit rate and the shifting-on of direct taxes and social security contributions influence nominal contract wages. A separate theoretical framework is constructed for wage drift.It is furthermore shown how the wage theory presented is related to Friedman-Phelps specifications. After a discussion of wage policy and its potential influence on wages, wage equations are estimated for the key bargaining sector as well as for wage followers. After their characteristics have been dealt with, as well as the effects of wage policy and the role of wage drift, the relationship between key bargaining, inflation and employment is analysed, showing that the model presented is able to explain stagflation.My thanks are due to Mr. H. von Eye for his help in carrying out the calculations and to Mr. A. de Reyger for providing me with the sectoral unionization rates and his general research assistance. Mr. A. J. van Geel kindly prepared the graphs.     

International Convergence of Capital Market Interest Rates

This article investigates the extent of capital market interest rate convergence among six EU countries on the one hand, and a group of four countries with floating exchange rates - US, Germany, Japan, and Switzerland - on the other. We conclude that interest rate changes within the EU have been and still are converging gradually since 1980. Within the group of free-float currencies, the increase in convergence occurred abruptly around 1980, after which the extent of convergence remained roughly constant. Moreover, the presumed higher influence of US long-term interest rates on the level of German interest rates could not be detected.     

Financing of land purchase by small‐scale farmers

Binswanger attributes the problem facing poor people in financing land purchase to the inclusion of a real capital gains component in the price of land. This article attributes it largely to a cash flow problem which arises from positive inflation rates. The Ricardian rent return to land in South African agriculture is estimated at between 4 and 5 per cent while the Land Bank's interest rate is 15 per cent. Interest payments on a bond can therefore not be met from rents to land alone. If, as an extreme situation, the expected inflation rate were zero, farmers might have been able to borrow funds at 4 to 5 per cent. To bring debt servicing in line with projected cash flows in the real situation, mortgage interest rates could be subsidised; or, in an alternative affirmative action, the state could contribute towards the purchase price of land. These alternatives are discussed.     

REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this article:
British Industries and their Organization . By G. C. ALLEN
Die Erschliessung der Moore zur landmirtschqftlichen Nutzung – Eine Agrarpolitische Untersuchung . Von Dr. HELMUT KLABE.
Das Italienisclie Meliorationswesen ( Bonifica Integrate ) Heft I . Von Dr. WALTER BTXSSE.
The Crisis in the World's Monetary System . By GTJSTAV CASSEL.
De Landelijke Arme Blanken in het Zuiden der Vereenigde Staten: Een Sociaal-historische en Sociographiese Stttdie . Door Dr. A. N. J. den Hollander, 1933. (Uitgevers-Maatschappij J. B. Wolters, Groningen, and J. L. van Sehaik, Pretoria.)
A Critical Study of Gold Reserves and the Monetary Standard, with special reference to the position of the Bank of England; and an Outline of a Proposed Monetary System for the British Commonwealth of Nations . By D. S. EDWABDS, B.Com.
The Development of John Stuart Mill's " System of Logic ." By Oskar Alfred Kubitz.
Aspects of the Rise of Economic Individualism . A Criticism of Max Weber and his School. By H. M. ROBERTSON.     

The need for reserves under full and limited flexibility of exchange rates

Summary The need for reserves under various degrees of exchange rate flexibility is discussed. In line with current thinking it is held that the need for reserves is generally smaller under conditions of limited exchange rate flexibility than under stable exchange rates. Contrary to the widespread belief that there is no need for holding reserves under freely floating exchange rates, it is argued that as long as there is a distinct possibility that freely floating rates will involve adjustment costs there is a strong case for the retention of some reserves by the monetary authorities.The author, currently on leave of absence as technical assistant to the Executive Director from the Netherlands of the IMF, is an official in the International Affairs Department of the Nederlandsche Bank. He wishes to thank Dr. P. Lieftinck, J. J. Polak, Dr. H. W. J. Wijnholds, Dr. J. H. Williamson, Mr. D. H. Boot and Mr. J. P. Th. Zwartjes for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. The responsibility for the views expressed is, however, entirely his own and cannot be interpreted as representing those of the institution where he is employed.     

The empirics of growth

Summary This study explores the long-run dynamics of economic growth, with particular reference to The Netherlands. The time span covered extends backwards to the mid-nineteenth century, using new time series on disaggregated physical and human capital stocks for the period 1850-1913. Economic growth in the nineteenth century is shown to have had a strong physical capital-using bias, initially concentrated in buildings and infrastructure. The close relationship between investment in machinery and economic growth did not begin to take shape until the end of the nineteenth century, to increase in strength in the course of the twentieth century.An earlier version of this article was published as a research memorandum of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GD 12), University of Groningen, October 1994. This article is based on research sponsored by the Faculty of Economics of the University of Groningen, and by the Foundation of Economic, Social, and Spatial Sciences (ESR), which is part of The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). For helpful comments, we thank Jan Jacobs, Professor W.H. Buiter, Bart van Ark, Rainer Fremdling, participants of the Economic History colloquium at the University of Groningen and of the European Historical Economics Society's Summer School 1994 (Florence), especially Professor Alan Taylor (Northwestern University), participants of the Quantitative Economic History Conference 1995 (Cambridge U.K.), and two anonymous referees. Of course, the usual disclaimer holds.     

Theo van de Klundert: A frontier economist

Summary Twenty-five years ago, Dr. Theo van de Klundert was appointed as Professor of Economics at Tillburg University. On the occassion of this jubilee the authors review Van de Klundert's contribution to the study of economic science in the The Netherlands. The article focuses on four topics: (1) growth and income distribution, (2) capital theory, resource economics and trade, (3) controversies between Keynesians and (4) open economy macroeconomics. A short remark is made about his teaching. Van de Klundert is praised for the quality and the comprehension of his scientific work.The authors are grateful to S.K. Kuipers and M. Peeters for their useful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Women's relative wage rate in The Netherlands, 1950–1983: A test of alternative discrimination theories

Summary This article presents the results of an inquiry into the relationship that is to be expected on theoretical grounds between women's wage rate compared to men's on the one hand and some macroeconomic variables on the other. Becker's discrimination theory is confronted with alternative theories. On the base of data for the Netherlands the authors investigate which theory is most suited to explain the development of women's relative wage rate for the period 1950–1983. They conclude that the results of the empirical analysis predominantly support Becker's theory.The authors wish to thank Mr. R. Haagsma and Professor C.K.F. Nieuwenburg for their comments on an earlier draft of this article. Furthermore, they are grateful to Miss M.J.R. Key for computational assistance.