加入WTO后我国金融制度的创新与发展

WTO对成员国金融开放的要求极其全面，加入WTO后，发达国家对我国开放金融市场的要求会进一步提高。面对21世纪开放经济下全新的外部环境，我国金融发展面临着一个较低的现实起点，即现行的金融制度与国际金融制度无法兼容且国内商业银行竞争力不足。必须深化改革，逐步推进金融制度创新与发展，以适应开放经济对金融的国际化、现代化要求。     

政府采购市场开放性的国际比较与借鉴

政府采购发展至今,各国国内的法律法规及相关措施都已相继建立并不断完善,但在政府采购市场的开放问题上,还存在不同认识及做法。本文回顾了有关政府采购市场开放的理论,并通过比较美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、韩国、新加坡等发达国家政府采购市场开放的实践,得出了一些有益经验,对我国即将开放政府采购市场具有一定的借鉴意义。     

人民币市场对外资银行开放的风险分析

中国的金融改革已进入到了关键时刻，继续坚持改革开放是中国社会进步和发展的必由之路，也是促进中国金融业发展的必经之路。根据WTO条约的约定，货币金融市场的开放，特别是人民币市场对外资银行的开放是我们必须履行的义务。外资银行进入国内人民币市场，对于促进国内银行业的竞争，提高国内中资银行的管理水平和竞争力是很有益处的，     

欧美国家对银行市场准入的监管

20世纪70年代金融自由化思潮对金融市场管制政策形成了一定的冲击。金融自由化的思想影响了相当一批发展中国家，南美、东欧许多国家开始对外开放国内金融市场，包括银行市场。但是，这些银行市场在开放的过程中同时也出现了一些问题，从而引发了人们重新对市场开放问题的进一步思考。     

发展中国家开放金融服务贸易市场的经验与启示

入世后我国金融服务贸易市场的开放,使国内金融领域面临前所未有的竞争压力,也使我国金融体系的稳定性受到严峻挑战。本文总结了肯尼亚和葡萄牙在开放金融服务市场中的经验,以及智利和韩国的教训,并从中得到几点启示,以期对中国金融服务市场的开放提供有益的借鉴。     

发展衍生产品应基于中国现状

中国金融业已经向外资全面开放，将面临国际金融业更加激烈的竞争，我们应当正视中国与世界金融发达国家的差距，迎头赶上国际金融衍生品市场发展创新的潮流，加快衍生产品市场的发展。[编者按]     

从服务贸易的法律规范看加入WTO后我国金融改革的取向

中国加入WTO"既不是馅饼也不是陷阱",它意味着在享受世贸组织规定的各项权利的同时,还必须承担相应的义务。金融业作为国际服务贸易的重要组成部分,市场的开放只是一个时间表问题。开放金融市场,一方面,会强化中国金融业的竞争机制,另一方面,也逼迫稚嫩的中国金融业在一个新的平台上接受来自世界发达国家强大的挑战。     

金融开放背景下的证券市场风险及防范研究

随着金融开放的力度和范围不断增加,我国证券市场已从传统相对封闭的市场转向全面开放的国际市场,与此同时,风险也在不断增加。在理论上对国内市场的系统性风险和国际资本流动产生的波动风险这两个模块进行探讨分析,以综合市场日收益率为样本数据,选取GARCH-Va R风险测度模型全面测算市场的Va R值,对市场的风险特征进行深入分析,再结合国内外学者已有对于证券市场开放风险控制的研究,以期为开放条件下的中国证券市场风险防范提供可参考借鉴的意见。     

开放资本市场与国家金融安全

要成为一个经济强国，其资本市场一定要开放。资本市场一开放，将对该国的金融安全产生威胁。资本市场开放使国家减小对汇率、利率的调节权。我国国民经济高速发展，国际收支状况良好，人民币汇率稳定，证券市场有了一定的发展，因此具有一定的抗冲击能力。但目前，我国在资本市场抗冲击能力上仍存在不少问题。要提高资本市场抗冲击能力，就要选择有限制的直接开发模式。     

衡量货币市场开放度的指标选择及实证检验

在金融开放条件下，资本的高度流动性和大量的金融创新使利率成为监控和测度货币市场开放最为重要的基础指标。对部分发展中国家进行实证检验的结果表明，利用利率作为基础指标测度一国货币市场的开放度是可行的和有效的。若以国际利率对国内利率长期传导强度作为货币市场开放度，对与东南亚等国经济发展相类似国家来说，货币市场开放度低于0.5是合适的。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.