我国固定资产投资对经济增长影响的实证分析

我国处于发展中国家行列这一阶段特征决定着投资在很大程度上推动着经济的持续发展,文章主要分析全社会固定资产投资对GDP增长的促进作用,通过1993—2012年固定资产投资增长和国内生产总值增长的数据进行计量分析得出结论：固定资产投资增长对GDP增长有显著促进作用;随着经济体制改革的深入与政府职能的转变,减缓固定资产投资增长速度和优化投资结构以进一步提高投资效益已刻不容缓。     

信用与区域经济增长的关联分析--以我国东部地区为例

信用资本与物质资本、人力资本是知识经济时代的三大主要资本,它与一个地区的经济增长密切相关。文章以我国东部地区为例,从GDP、投资、消费、出口四方面对信用与其经济增长的关联性从正反两方面进行了分析,最后得出:良好的信用可促进区域经济增长和可持续发展;反之,信用缺失则会延缓区域经济增长。为此,一个地区要保持其经济增长和发展,根本动力在于建立社会信用体系。     

我国固定资产投资对经济增长影响的计量分析

固定资产投资对经济增长有重要作用,文章以计量经济学模型为基础,对比股份制经济固定资产投资出现前后与经济增长进行定量分析。试图建立一个以国内生产总值GDP为因变量,以其它可量化的影响因素为解释变量的多元线性回归模型;运用多因素分析法对GDP增长变动及其主要影响因素进行实证分析,从而得到相关启示,并结合我国现在GDP增长情况,为未来我国因固定资产而引起GDP变动情况提供依据。     

加快开展技术引进 发挥技术性后发优势

随着经济全球化和知识经济的到来 ,先进技术的引进对于促进一个国家特别是中国这样的发展中国家的经济增长的作用日趋显著 ,而且技术引进也是发展中国家发挥后发优势的集中体现。文章将从后发优势等理论入手 ,分析技术引进对我国的重要意义 ,提出当前国际环境下开展技术引进工作的对策与建议。     

我国环保投资现状分析及优化对策研究

随着经济的快速发展,环境质量改善的压力日益加大。文章根据2000-2013年有关中国环境的统计数据,从投资规模、投资结构、投资效益方面考察我国环保投资的发展现状,结果表明我国环保投资总额呈增长态势但缺乏稳定性,与GDP、固定资产投资、财政收入等经济指标之间缺乏持续稳定的联动机制;投资结构偏向城市环境基础设施建设投资和新建项目“三同时”环保投资,二者也是环保投资中增长较快的领域,工业污染源治理投资所占比重及其增长速度远远落后;环保设施运营效率和环境污染治理效果并不乐观。分析其原因后文章提出了构建环保投资与经济增长的双联动机制、优化环保投资的使用方向、提高环保投资的使用效益和大力发展环保产业的对策建议。     

环境规制、能源结构和GDP对产业投资的影响——基于行业的视角

中国是世界上最大的发展中国家,正处于经济的快速发展时期,投资仍然是经济增长的关键要素,但是为了应对气候变化以及兑现在哥本哈根会议上的承诺,传统投资需要向低碳投资转型.文章以农、交、工、商、建五大产业为视角,基于固定效应面板模型和门槛模型,实证分析能源结构、GDP、环境规制等要素对投资资本的影响,同时探究了这一影响在不同产业之间的异质性.得出基本结论:能源结构与产业投资反向变化、环境规制与产业投资之间呈现倒"U"型的非线性关系,并得出了其临界值,GDP普遍推动了产业投资的增长.最终提出从环境规制和技术水平两个方面采取措施,以期加快中国低碳经济发展的速度.     

全国各省GDP增长与地区居民人民币存储量的关系研究

文章主要考虑各省的GDP变化对于各省居民人民币存储量的变化影响。文章中的数据来源于中国统计年鉴2004-2013年的数据。文章采用计量的方法对我国31个省近10年的GDP变化数据和当地居民人民币存储量的变化数据进行面板数据模型的分析,主要采用Eviews8.0软件进行分析检验,包括单位根的检验、协整检验和F检验。研究发现,地区GDP的增长会明显带动居民人民币存储量的增长,两者是呈正相关的关系。经济发达省份和经济不发达省份的GDP增长对于当地居民人民币存储量的增加影响尤为明显。经济发展中省份的GDP增长对于当地居民人民币存储量的影响较小。针对地区经济发展的差异,文章提出居民投资理财的建议。     

外商直接投资与我国经济增长关系的实证研究

随着我国经济的快速发展,外商越来越注意到我国的庞大市场,因此,外商直接投资(FDI)在我国的经济发展中扮演着越来越重要的角色,同时我国政府给予外商更加优惠政策,鼓励外商直接投资。外商直接投资带来了资本及其外溢效应,在很大程度上促进了经济的增长。文章收集了中国2000-2010年10年FDI和GDP数据,利用ADF单位根检验、协整分析和GRANGER因果关系的方法来研究FDI和GDP之间的关系,得出了一些结论,并提出了相关建议。     

卷首语

2002年,中国的国内生产总值(GDP)突破了10万亿人民币,标志着国民经济总量跃上了一个新的台阶。改革开放25年来,作为一个发展中国家,中国经济一直保持强劲、高速的增长,创造了奇迹。面对这种发展,引发了一场轰轰烈烈的中国GDP及其增长速度计算的争论。长期以来,中国的GDP增长率饱受争议,尤其是近两年,这种争议愈演愈烈,同时在国际上引发了关于“中国崩溃论”和“中国威胁论”的讨论。自然,国内外的专家和学者们从各种角度论证官方公布的增长数值高低准确与否,我们所关注的是如何使中国经济的统计制度更完善,统计指标更能反映客观实际。20…     

新常态下经济增长动力:要凯恩斯还是熊彼特

由于历史和现实的种种原因,我国是一个崇尚投资拉动增长的发展中国家,原有经济模式的核心就是政府主导型投资拉动增长。文章通过理论与实践上对投资拉动增长的"凯恩斯动力"客观分析,尤其是对我国长期奉行的投资拉动增长模式进行了理性反思,进而论证了我国经济新常态下加快从投资拉动增长的"凯恩斯动力"向创新驱动增长的"熊彼特动力"转变的紧迫性和重要性。并认为要使"创新驱动增长"成为经济新常态下的增长动力,唯有依靠全面深化改革来推进。     

The role of China in the world economy: evidence from a global VAR model

Since the 1980s, China has experienced very high economic growth, and its share in global trade has increased rapidly. Currently, however, the Chinese economy is rebalancing, and its growth is slowing. This paper investigates the spillover effects on other countries of a negative demand shock and negative stock price shock in the Chinese economy. We apply a global vector autoregressive model, which enables us to model international linkages between countries. Our results show that a one per cent negative China GDP shock reduces global growth by 0.22% in the short run. We find that GDP shock affects emerging economies more strongly than advanced economies. We also show that a stock price shock affects only emerging economies and does not affect advanced economies.     

中国经济潜在增长率的变动分析——基于日韩及金砖四国等典型国家1961-2010年的经验比较

国际金融危机背景下中国经济不平衡、不协调、不可持续的结构性矛盾日益突显,尤其是2012年中国政府更是八年来首次将国内生产总值（GDP）预期增长目标调低至8%以下,中国经济的发展轨迹及其未来发展潜力再次引发热议。要想对此做出回答有赖于对典型国家发展经验比较的基础上做出科学分析。基于此,本文以成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”的典型经济体日本、韩国,以及金砖国家的巴西、印度、俄罗斯为比较研究的对象,利用HP滤波法获得的典型国家潜在增长率变动的历史轨迹,深入分析我国及上述国家在不同发展阶段上潜在经济增长率变动的总体特征,及其产业结构、要素投入结构和需求结构变动的显著特征,由此为中国经济实现快速持续健康发展和发展方式的根本性转变提供经验借鉴。     

MEASURING THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES: SOME LESSONS FROM CHINESE EXPERIENCE

This article quantifies the comparative performance of China in several dimensions. Firstly, it shows that China's move from a command to a market economy was less abrupt and more successful than that of 29 other economies making a similar transition. Secondly, while official estimates show annual GDP growth of 9.6 percent in 1978–2003, this is reduced to 7.9 percent after adjustment for exaggeration of industrial performance and growth in non-material services. Thirdly, as the exchange rate understates China's achievement, a purchasing power parity (PPP) converter is necessary to measure comparative level of performance. Our PPP converter shows that China in 2005 was the world's second largest economy, with a GDP about 80 percent of the U.S. It is assumed that China will have overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest economy before 2015. Until recently, the World Bank estimate of the PPP for China was close to that of Maddison, but the Bank's new estimate for 2005 shows Chinese GDP about half this level. The Bank's new estimates for China and other Asian countries are not plausible, and this paper advances several reasons for rejecting them. Finally, energy use per head of population is a good deal smaller than that of the U.S., and its total energy use for a much bigger population is likely to be somewhat smaller than that of the U.S. in 2030. However, heavy dependence on dirty coal means that it will have bigger carbon emissions than the U.S. This is a major problem as Beijing and other big cities already have severe pollution problems.     

中国未来经济增长及其国际经济地位展望

论文在分析国内外历史资料和经济增长因素的基础上 ,对中国和目前经济总量世界排名前五位国家的未来经济增长率、国内生产总值以及中国人均国内生产总值进行了预测 ,得出以下基本结论 :中国国内生产总值将于 2 0 0 5年超过法国 ,2 0 0 6年超过英国 ,2 0 1 2年超过德国 ,本世纪中叶 ,有可能超过日本 ,成为世界第二经济大国 ,但在本世纪内很难超过美国 ,成为世界第一经济大国 ;2 0 50年中国人均国内生产总值将达到中等发达国家 2 0 0 0年的水平。     

China’s catch-up to the US economy: decomposing TFP through investment-specific technology and human capital

We implement a neoclassical growth model that incorporates investment-specific technology (IST) modifying capital investment in the law of motion of capital and bifurcates productivity into human capital and total factor productivity (TFP) in the production function. We focus on the role of changes in the quality-adjusted price of investment goods on China’s growth by comparing the effects of IST and human capital on the decomposition of US and Chinese productivity. The results show that both human capital and IST play an important role in the decomposition of US TFP. For China, human capital accounts for an increasingly higher portion of Chinese TFP for the period 1952–2009; however, IST contributes to the explanation of TFP only after the 1979 reforms. The analysis is extended by considering the impact of IST in the consumer’s investment decision and by projecting both countries’ GDP while modelling unbalanced Chinese growth using catch-up. Our model predicts that the Chinese economy will surpass the US economy in 2024.     

Macroeconomic impacts of remittances in Bangladesh: The role of reverse flows

Das and Serieux (2010; 2015) and Serieux (2011) used the term “reverse flows” to define the part of external resources that is not domestically absorbed; instead used to finance debt obligations, capital flight, and accumulate reserves. While there is a vast literature on the growth and development impact of remittances in developing countries, the existing empirical literature has mostly ignored the potential diversion of remittances to reverse flows. This paper bridges the gap in the literature by estimating the reverse flows in the case of Bangladesh, which is one of the top remittance recipient countries in the world. The data set runs from 1976 to 2015. Econometric results obtained by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach show that almost 13–14% of remittances (as the ratio of gross domestic product, GDP) are diverted to finance reverse flows. In other words, the effects of remittances (as the ratio of GDP) on consumption and investment rates are no more than 86–87%. Therefore, the underlying assumption made in the existing literature that all remittances are used to increase consumption and/or investment overstates the impact of this external resource flow in Bangladesh. Findings from this study have important policy implications not only for Bangladesh but for other remittance recipient developing countries. Our findings will help the government to design policies to ensure the optimum allocation of remittances in the domestic economy.     

Veblen and Kropotkin on Human Evolution

This paper studies the spillover effects of economic fluctuations in the United States on economic activity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Fluctuations in U.S. GDP growth have spillover effects that stimulate real growth and accelerate price inflation across many countries. Underlying these spillover effects are significant movements in private consumption, and to a larger extent, private investment. Openness to the United States has significant effects that accelerate growth of exports and/or imports across many countries. The net effects on the trade and current account balances vary across countries. Overall, the evidence supports concerns about adverse spillover effects of a slowdown in the U.S. economy on neighboring countries, necessitating careful mobilization of countercyclical domestic tools to hedge against potential risk and mitigate the severity of economic downturns.     

中国宏观经济形势与政策:2003—2004年

中国经济景气在2003年继续其2002年以来的扩张倾向,全年GDP增长率将接近9%,并且将在2004年完成从经济萧条到经济繁荣的经济周期形态转换。21世纪上半叶, 中国经济将继续保持高速增长的历史趋势,核心通货膨胀率将处于较低水平。在当前经济扩张的初级阶段,中国宏观经济管理应该采取适度扩张的财政政策与货币政策,建立以增加国内投资需求为轴心的需求管理政策体系,促进国民经济持续快速增长,并且在此基础上实现增加就业、保持结构平衡和维护人民币汇率稳定的多重政策目标。     

Political Institutions, Capital Flows, and Developing Country Growth: An Empirical Investigation

The paper examines the real per-capita growth effects of the quality of democracy, the rule of law, and capital flows in developing countries. The direct growth effects of democracy are positive and often statistically significant. Moreover, the estimates from a three-stage least-squares regression offer evidence that democracy has indirect growth effects that work by encouraging schooling and that the rule of law influences growth indirectly by encouraging foreign direct investment. A higher FDI to GDP ratio is associated with a faster growth rate. The estimated growth effect of the FDI to GDP ratio is several times higher than the estimated growth effect of the domestic investment to GDP ratio. By contrast, this study does not find a clear asso-ciation between other types of capital flows and growth.