上海证券市场弱式有效性的统计检验

有效市场假说是现代金融理论中最重要也是最有争议的概念之一,其中研究最多、争议最大的是市场的弱式有效性。本文运用上证综合指数（2003年1月2日-2006年12月29日）日数据,对上海证券市场的弱式有效性进行了三种统计检验,序列相关性检验、单位根检验和随机游程检验,单位根检验得出上海证券市场尚未达到弱式有效,然而序列相关性检验和随机游程检验的结果显示上海证券市场已经达到弱式有效,由于单位根检验的必要而非充分性,本文认为可以认为上海证券市场已基本上达到弱式有效。     

我国证券市场效率的分析

<正> 实践中,投资者都力图获取最大的收益,或追求超出平均收益的收益。从理论上来说,若证券市场上的有关信息对每个投资者都是均等的,而且每个投资者都能根据自己掌握的信息及时地进行理性的投资决策,那么任何投资者都不能获得超额收益。这种市场被称为“有效市场”。由此可见,证券市场效率的高低是衡量证券市场信息分布和流速、交易透明度和规范程度的重要标志,也是证券市场成熟与否的重要标志。在我国,证券市场弱型效率的研究刚开始,取得了一定的经验。目前,对我国证券市场是否达到弱型效率这一问题仍有争议。1994年俞乔在《经济研究》发表研究上海和深圳股市弱型效率的论文,分析上海和深圳的股市综合指数自1990年12月29日至1994年4月28日的变动趋势,其实证研究表明深、沪市场均不具有弱型     

证券市场投资心理浅析

随着社会主义市场经济的发展 ,证券市场体系运行机制日趋完善 ,证券市场已经成为我国社会主义经济市场不可或缺的重要组成部分。特别是随着股份制改造的深入 ,涉入证券市场的企业和个人越来越多 ,证券市场的发展变化牵动着千家万户的心。证券投资者 (无论是个人还是群体 )更加关心证券市场的行情和走向 ,证券市场的各级管理者也非常关注证券投资者的心理特点和规律 ,以期使我国社会主义证券市场不断成熟并在世界大市场竞争中保持良性运行。一、证券市场类型对投资心理的影响证券市场是从事股票、债券等有价证券交易的场所 ,是长期资本市场 ,…     

内地香港证券市场合作前景看好

香港回归在即。不久,香港证券市场将成为中国资本市场的重要组成部分。目前香港、深圳、上海三大证券市场,尤其是香港与深沪两市的合作前景受到各阶层的关注,人们期待着三地共同的发展和繁荣。     

中国证券市场结构实证分析

在我国理论界始终追随着证券,市场结构的调整和演进，不断地对证券市场结构进行研究。但是迄今为止，对证券市场结构的研究没有能够深入发掘经济的内涵因素对证券市场结构的影响，也没有一套分析证券市场结构的完整的理论体系。本文通过吸收发展经济学的研究成果，试图建立一套衡量我国证券市场结构的指标，特别是衡量证市场交易工具的指标，以期能促进我国证市场的结构的不断完善。     

中国证券市场投资者羊群行为研究

投资者的羊群行为是导致证券市场剧烈波动和引发市场系统风险的一个重要原因.本文系统回顾了羊群行为产生机理,对市场的影响等理论研究成果,同时分析了我国证券市场羊群行为的影响,在此基础上分析了我国证券市场上羊群行为的特点探讨了减消羊群行为的方法.     

浅议证券市场和货币市场

<正> 证券市场的发展,促进了企业通过市场直接融通资金,并且在不断地扩大,对于这一不断扩大的融资形式,不少人担心随着证券市场的发展,证券的发行规模越.大,吸收的货币资金也越多,居民用于储蓄的资金会相应减少,这是否影响信贷、货币市场的均衡,对于这一问题,应从分析证券市场和货币市场两者关系入手。证券商品流通需要货币媒介物的特性,决定了证券市场象普通商品市场一样需要容纳相应的货币资金。货币市场上的资金流向证券市场的规模一方     

中国证券市场风险分析

本文通过对中国证券市场VaR的统计分析得出以下结论 :从投资风险角度看 ,上海证券市场的投资风险略高于深圳证券市场 ,但相差甚微 ,这从实证角度说明中国不同证券市场具有高度的相关性。     

证券市场开放、发展与经济增长——新兴市场国家证券市场开放效果的初步考察

近20年来许多新兴市场国家向外国投资者开放国内证券市场。而证券市场开放对这些国家的证券市场发展和经济增长都产生了重要影响。无论是市场开放后直接促进证券市场发展，还是由于开放带来的证券资本成本下降以刺激投资增长，都对经济增长起到了积极的推动作用。对证券市场开放影响程度和特征和考察和研究，将有助于理解我国证券市场对外开放的经济意义。     

我国证券市场与宏观经济联动性分析

证券市场变化受到很多因素的影响,其中宏观经济运行的状况对证券市场的变化具有重要意义。随着社会主义市场经济体制的完善,我国的证券市场逐步走向成熟,逐步与商品市场等形成了紧密相关的联动关系。文章从我国证券市场与宏观经济发展的规律出发,对我国的证券市场与宏观市场的运行情况进行客观分析,以期能用更加全面的观念看到证券市场发展趋势。     

Return and volatility spillovers effects: Evaluating the impact of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

This study investigates the impact of the recently introduced Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Using high frequency data and dynamic forecasting techniques, we find that the new Stock Connect does contribute to the increasing importance of the Chinese mainland stock market and economic activity. A weak and unstable cointegration relationship is found after this event. Additionally, the Stock Connect has also increased the conditional variance of both stock markets. We observe a leading role of the Shanghai stock market to the Hong Kong stock market in terms of both mean and volatility spillover effects after the Stock Connect. Our study indicates that the opening up of stock markets in China could enhance the leading power, influence the risk level and improve the market efficiency of the Chinese mainland stock market, since the volatility spillover effect from Shanghai to Hong Kong is strengthened. Besides, our results have important policy implications, especially on how policy makers should deal with the increased market interconnectedness and for portfolio managers in choosing potential hedging instruments. The success of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect provides valuable operational experience for the forthcoming Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect which could further improve the market efficiency in China.     

资本市场开放与企业创新——基于沪深港通交易制度的准自然实验

资本市场改革能否有效促进实体经济发展是当前中国经济发展面临的重大挑战。基于企业创新研究视角，以沪深港通交易制度作为外生事件，采用多时点双重差分模型(DID)系统考察了我国资本市场开放对公司创新的影响及内在作用机理。研究发现，沪深港通交易制度实施显著提升了标的公司创新绩效，表现为专利产出增加，且该现象在管理层持股比例高、融资约束强的样本中较为显著，表明沪深港通制度通过提升管理层创新意愿与提高企业创新能力两大途径提升创新绩效。进一步分析发现，资本市场开放对企业创新的正向影响在信息透明度低、沪深港通交易活跃股以及法制环境不完善样本中更显著。上述结论不仅拓展了企业创新影响因素研究，也为实施沪深港通交易制度带来的经济影响提供了来自微观公司层面的经验证据，亦为后续完善该项制度提供了参考与借鉴。     

An empirical examination of factors driving the offshore renminbi market

Following the 2010 establishment of the offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong, renminbi deposits there quickly rose above RMB 1 trillion. In this article, we examine fluctuations between the offshore value of the renminbi in Hong Kong and its onshore value in mainland China. The size of the spot market spread appears to be influenced by stock market sentiment as reflected in the spread between A-shares listed in Shanghai and H-shares listed in Hong Kong. There is also some evidence of a link between the spread and the pace of renminbi deposit growth in Hong Kong.     

沪深港股市动态联动性研究——基于三元VAR-GJR-GARCH-DCC的新证据

随着经济全球化的迅速发展,国际资本市场呈现出一体化趋势,各地证券价格的联动性也日趋显著。本文梳理已有理论文献,并总结经验成果的不足,在此基础上,构建三元VAR-GJR-GARCH-DCC整合分析框架,对沪深港股市联动效应进行了严谨而全面的实证检验。研究结果表明:沪深港三个市场具有联动效应,直接或间接引导对方;沪深股市对港市的新息冲击做出类似的反应,并且它们与港市的动态关联性具有趋同性,该结论为沪深两市合并提供了新证据;三个市场的相关性具有时变的动态特征,"中国因素"与"世界因素"的相关性正趋于增强。上述实证结论对投资者重新认识市场运行机制,合理制定投资策略以及监管当局有效防范国内外股市风险,推进股市整合均具有重要的启示意义。     

沪港股市动态相关性和大风险溢出的实证研究

本文首先采用时变相关Copula模型对沪港两市收益率的动态相关性进行研究,在此基础上利用BG算法将整个样本期划分为两个不同的阶段,并利用Hong（2001）年提出的风险一Granger因果检验方法分析了不同时段两市间的风险溢出效应。实证结果表明,两地股市收益率的相关性存在逐步增强的趋势,进一步分析表明两市闻风险溢出特征在过去发生了显著变化,风险溢出显著增强。     

资本市场开放能抑制企业避税吗——基于沪港通的准自然实验

资本市场开放作为我国金融供给侧改革的重要内容,深刻改变了中国资本市场交易者结构特征,可能对上市公司的自利行为产生深远影响。本文基于沪港通这一准自然实验,研究发现资本市场开放能显著抑制企业的避税行为。影响机制检验表明,资本市场开放不仅有助于提高公司治理水平、抑制高管避税寻租动机,而且有助于改善公司信息质量、增加避税成本,从而降低企业避税水平。进一步研究还发现,这一影响对于税收征管强度较低地区的企业更显著。本文的研究结果表明,沪港通可以作为有效的外部治理机制,促进企业规范自身行为,提高税收征管效率。这为后续进一步深化金融领域开放提供了理论依据。     

Capital account liberalization and dynamic price discovery: evidence from Chinese cross-listed stocks

We analyse the effects of a recent financial reform (Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect) that enables cross-market investment between Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges. Using a VECM, we find that the reform announcement considerably narrows the equilibrium level of price disparity and strengthens the price comovement of shares that are cross-listed in both markets. The estimated equilibrium relationship is in support of the relative law of one price. We find that both markets adjust in response to a disequilibrium in price disparity, leading to a sizeable error correction activity. The Shanghai market contributes to approximately two-thirds of the price discovery process. Competition and informativeness of trading affect the relative role of price discovery in each market. Finally, the reform implementation reinforces the long-run cointegration relationship and strengthens the short-run price comovements of cross-listed stocks despite the widening price disparity during the period.     

The behaviour of Hong Kong stock prices

The primary function of a stock market is to allocate resources to the most profitable investment opportunities. If stock prices provide accurate signals for resource allocation, firms are able to make correct production–investment decisions, and investors are able to choose the most suitable stocks for investment. These choices are only possible if the market is efficient, that is, if stock prices ‘fully reflect’ all available information.

Hong Kong is now an international financial centre. Although Hong Kong's stock market is ranked as one of the five largest in the world in terms of turnover, little research has been devoted to the behaviour of its stock prices. This is a study of the efficiency of Hong Kong's stock market. It is based upon two widely accepted statistical tests, namely, serial correlation analysis and runs tests. Data used cover the daily prices of 28 major Hong Kong stocks over a period of four years from 1977 to 1980. The evidence is mixed; it does not provide clear support for the efficient market hypothesis.     

Stock return reversal and continuance anomaly: new evidence from Hong Kong

Using weekly data, this article conducts a comprehensive analysis and presents new empirical evidences on the short-term stock return reversal and continuance anomaly in the Hong Kong stock market. We confirm that winner stocks behave differently from loser stocks in that the return reversal phenomenon is pervasive within past winner stocks only while past loser stocks tend to show weak return continuance. The arbitrage strategy can earn significantly positive contrarian profits, especially for small firms and illiquid stocks. The anomaly varies across different industries and is also sensitive to the market movement. Despite the existence of the anomaly, our results still in general suggest that the Hong Kong stock market is weak-form efficient because arbitrage trading costs would largely overwhelm the available profits in most cases.     

Asymmetric spillover effects between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets: evidence from quantile lagged regression

This article surveys the asymmetric spillover effects between the mainland China-based Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) and the Hong Kong based Hang Seng Index (HSI) using a quantile lagged regression model. Compared to previous studies, this article, based on data before and after the 2008 global financial crisis, presents a more detailed analysis, as we investigate the spillovers in terms of returns, volatilities and exchange rates between the renminbi (RMB) and the Hong Kong dollar (HKD) throughout the entire conditional return distribution, including the central quantiles, which are closely related to the normal circumstances, and the extreme quantiles, which correspond to the bear and bull markets. First, we find that the return spillovers from its lagged returns or from the other index not only vary across time but also depend on stock state. Second, while return volatility may boost the stock market in a bull market, it accelerates the decline in a bear market. Third, the depreciation of the RMB relative to the HKD does not significantly affect current returns for the HSI, while it negatively affects current returns for the SCI in a bad state after the crisis. The findings presented in this article will facilitate investors’ understanding of the two stock markets.