World economy

We expect the solid and broad‐based world recovery to continue, and still see a slight pick‐up in global GDP growth from 2.9% this year (up from 2.8% in July) to 3.0% in 2018 (unchanged from three months ago). This points to the most sustained period of robust global growth since the initial recovery from the financial crisis.     

What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging Versus Developed Economies

We explore the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a FAVAR model that identifies shocks from different regions of the world, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian countries) is more than twice as important as demand from developed countries in accounting for the fluctuations in the real oil price and in oil production. Furthermore, geographical regions respond differently to adverse oil market shocks that drive up oil prices, with Europe and North America being more negatively affected than countries in Asia and South America. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spillovers and diversification potential of bank equity returns from developed and emerging America

We examine the network spillovers, portfolio allocation characteristics and diversification potential of bank returns from developed and emerging America. We draw our results by applying a directional spillover index, the tail-event driven network (TENET) and nonlinear portfolio optimization methods on bank returns. We find that the spillovers and connectedness among banks from emerging America are noticeably smaller than those among banks from developed America. The largest emerging market spillover transmitters and receivers are the banks from Brazil, followed by the banks from Chile. The largest developed market spillover transmitter is JP Morgan Chase. The connectedness among banks from developed America is dominated by the banks from the USA, relative to those from Canada. The total connectedness of the emerging market banks is more intensified than that of the banks from developed America due to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. The portfolio optimization shows that in developed America, the largest banks from the USA are the largest risk contributors to total portfolio risk, whereas the banks from Canada contribute the least risk. In emerging America, the banks from Brazil contribute the most risk to total portfolio risk while the banks from Peru and one bank from Colombia contribute the least risk. The portfolio of banks from emerging America offers greater diversification potential and lower total portfolio allocation risk.     

IDENTITY ECONOMICS: SOCIAL INFLUENCE AND SKILL DEVELOPMENT

Within the economic literature, studies in identity economics, peer effects, and skill development have all suggested that social influences have an important role in determining choices. In this review, I draw on lessons learned from the identity economics literature to examine implications from the peer effects and skill development literature. I focus on the role of social identity in generating social group effects from peers and what role identity may have in shaping the development of skills from broader environments, parents and peers during childhood and adolescence.     

人力资源管理的转变与创新

当今社会,竞争越来越激烈,人力资源已经成为最重要的战略资源之一,而人才的竞争越来越具有决定意义和作用。人力资源管理已经成为实现人才强国战略的关键所在。新的形势对人力资源管理提出了新的要求。应该实现五个转变:传统向现代转变、管理向服务转变、使用向开发转变、刚性向柔性转变、事本向人本转变,力求五个创新:创新人才观念、创新人才环境、创新管理机制、创新引进机制、创新竞争机制。     

城市空间发展哲学思辩

通过对十多个城市空间发展的个案分析 ,作者指出 ,在城市空间拓展过程中 ,通过规划调控、行政区划调整等手段 ,可以使城市劣势空间变优势空间 ,使分割空间变整体空间 ,平淡空间变特色空间 ,变限制空间为超越限制空间     

Clean money,dirty system: Connected landowners capture beneficial land rezoning

We use a unique regulatory event that occurred in Queensland, Australia, from 2007 to 2012, to examine the predictive power of landowner relationship networks and lobbying behaviour on successfully gaining value-enhancing rezoning. A State authority, the Urban Land Development Authority (ULDA), took planning control away from local councils in selected areas in order to increase the speed and scale of development in those areas, in the process increasing land values. Using micro-level relationship data from multiple sources, we compare the relationship-network characteristics of landowners of comparable sites inside and outside the ULDA areas, finding that ‘connected’ landowners owned 75% of land inside the rezoned areas, and only 12% outside, capturing $410 million in land value gains out of the total $710 million from rezoning. We also find that engaging a professional lobbyist is a substitute for having one’s own connections. Scaling up from our sample of six rezoned areas to the hundreds of rezoning decisions across Queensland and Australia in the last few decades, suggests that many billions of dollars of economic rent are being regularly transferred from the general population to connected landowners through political rezoning decisions.     

北京城区展览馆空间布局演变及特征

以北京城区展览馆的空间分布特征为切入点,将展览馆空间分布的发展阶段分为新中国成立至1970年、1970年至1990年和1990年至今三个阶段,重点分析了其历史演变过程中每个阶段的空间分布特点及成因,认为北京城区展览馆空间分布呈现总体集中和局部分散的特征,并分别从城区之间的差异、长安街及其延长线为界的南北差异以及交通环线的角度,指出北京展览馆空间分布存在的问题,分析了其影响因素,并对北京展览馆的未来发展提出对策建议。     

DISASTER CRISIS MANAGEMENT: A SUMMARY OF RESEARCH FINDINGS

The crisis management of disasters does not follow automatically from disaster planning. Research has shown that successful disaster management results primarily from the activities of emergency organizations. In particular, there are management problems with respect to the communication process, the exercise of authority, and the development of co-ordination. There are at least five different areas of difficulties in the communication process, namely, intra- and inter-organizational behaviours between organizations, from organizations to the public, from the public to organizations, and within systems of organizations. Exercise of authority difficulties stem from losses of higher echelon personnel because of over-work, conflict regarding authority over new disaster tasks, and clashes over organizational jurisdictional differences. Co-ordination difficulties come from lack of consensus among organizations, working on common but new disaster-related tasks, and difficulties in achieving overall co-ordination in any community disaster that is of any magnitude. Prior planning can limit these management difficulties but cannot completely eliminate all of them.     

中国出口贸易可持续发展水平实证研究 --基于1985～2003年的时间序列数据分析

本文尝试从出口贸易的社会经济效益和生态效益角度创建测度出口可持续发展水平的分层评价指标体系，并利用灰色关联分析方法建立出口贸易可持续发展水平时序评价模型，最后基于中国1985～2003年的时间序列数据进行实证研究。研究结果显示1985-2003年中国出口贸易的社会经济效益水平整体明显改善，但这主要源于出口规模扩张，并且在多数年份中国出口社会经济效益获取要以同期出口生态效益水平恶化作为代价。总体上看，1985-2003年中国出口贸易可持续发展综合水平呈缓慢曲折上升趋势。     

“The Worse You Behave, The More You Seem, to be Rewarded”: Bullying in Nursing as Organizational Corruption

This paper reports findings from the first, qualitative stage of a national sequential, mixed method study of bullying in the Australian nursing workplace. Twenty-six nurses who had experience of workplace bullying were recruited from two Australian public sector health care organizations. Examining the narrative data from the viewpoint of bullying being a corrupt activity we present an alternative perspective on group acts of bullying. By exploring bullying as corrupt behaviour, this paper challenges the assumption that bullying can be principally considered a series of isolated events stemming from interpersonal conflict, organizational pressures, or poor work design. Corruption in organizations has not previously been linked with or compared to bullying. In revealing the manner in which actors can engage in corrupt conduct that includes bullying, the findings from our study offer important implications for the management of workplace bullying as a serious and corrupt activity.     

THE INTERNALISATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL EXTERNALITIES AFFECTING DWELLINGS: A REVIEW OF COURT CASES IN HONG KONG

In 1960, Ronald Coase suggested that there are many methods to solve the problem of externalities apart from imposing Pigovian taxes. Internalisation is one of those noted in his classic paper, ‘The Problem of Social Cost’. This paper studies the possibility of residents receiving compensation from pollutant generators. Data collected from Hong Kong law reports over the past 20 years show that there is forty‐fold increase in number of water seepage court cases since the first case in 1994. The total amount of compensation has also increased greatly. There are, however, far fewer court cases where residents seek compensation from generators of noise and air pollution. This may reflect a combination of high transaction costs and low expected benefits from such cases.     

Agglomeration economies in urban manufacturing industries: A case of Japanese cities

The effects of urban agglomeration economies on productivities in two-digit manufacturing industries is estimated using the cross section data of Japanese cities in 1979. Urbanization and localization economies, which are major forms of urban agglomeration economies, are explicitly separated. The estimates of these economies vary considerably among industries. Light industries receive more productive advantages from urbanization economies than from localization economies, but heavy industries experience these economies more from localization economies than from urbanization economies.     

Levensduur en sloop van personenauto's in Nederland, 1950–1964*

Summary The life distribution of motorcars is examined over the period from 1950 to 1964. Age-specific survival rates, derived from Dutch registrations, are averaged and lead to the life table shown in table 4. The deviations from average age-specific survival rates show no significant variation over time nor over successive car generations. Since the registrations include an increasing number of used cars imported from Germany this apparent stability hides compensating changes in car scrap page. Since before the war the life expectancy of motorcars has increased from 8 to 11 years, and it is argued that this is due to the widening of the used car market. In the next stage, which is already well under way in Germany, new cars replace used cars, and rising apparent scrappage rates reflect the disposal of the latter by export.     

城市水业的成长性研究

基于产业生命周期理论,对城市供水、污水处理和再生水行业进行了研究,认为我国城市供水行业正从成长期向成熟期过渡,行业的成长主要来自于城市化率的提高及水价的上涨;污水处理行业处于快速成长期,行业的成长主要来自污水处理率的提高;再生水行业处于幼稚期的萌芽阶段,成长空间较大,行业成长主要依靠政府的政策扶持;从水价建立机制、政府监管等方面提出了建议。     

王熙凤管理之失给企业领导干部的启示

王熙风是《红楼梦》中首屈一指的“末世之才”，但是从现代管理学来看，其管理之失给现代企业领导干部四大启示：忌事事躬行、年轻早逝；忌刚中缺柔、触犯众怒；忌滥用职权、假公济私；忌目光短浅、缺乏远见。     

城市中心区立体步行交通系统建设策略和实施机制研究

回顾城市中心区步行交通系统的发展历程,国内外城市实践表明,建设立体步行交通系统能够有效解决城市中心区交通拥挤、空间紧缺等问题。本文基于对立体步行交通系统的构成要素、类型与形式的认识,结合国内外城市的发展经验,对城市中心区立体步行交通系统的建设策略和实施机制进行研究探讨,尝试总结出一些策略措施,以指导我国城市中心区立体步行交通系统的建设。     

An Empirical Model of Efficiency Analysis on Flood Prevention Investment in Japan

This paper aims to evaluate the comprehensive efficiency of flood disaster prevention investment from 1955 to 1999 by developing and applying an integrated evaluation model. Our analysis results have clarified some important issues currently being discussed in Japan. Firstly, the average values of normalized flood losses decreased greatly between the 1955-1961 period and the 1984-1999 period. Secondly, the ratio of human loss to total loss caused by floods in Japan may be less than 10%, based on the concept of the value of statistical life (VOSL) and values estimated from the risk-money tradeoff. The proportion of intangible effect to total loss increased from less than 10% before the 1970s to approximately 20% after that period. Finally, flood prevention investment in Japan effectively reduced losses caused by flooding before the 1960s; however, since the 1980s, investment has changed from an efficient mode to an inefficient mode, not only from the economic standpoint, but also from that of total flood loss saving.     

中国工业化、城镇化进程中的土地配置特征

基于已有的研究成果,通过系统的理论归纳与统计分析,提出了当前中国工业化、城镇化进程中土地资源配置的主要特征:第一,从部门配置角度看,表现为农业用地大规模非农化;第二,从产业配置的角度看,城乡用地结构快速转变;第三,从空间配置的角度看,土地利用的区域不均衡;第四,从功能配置的角度看,重经济效益轻生态效益。     

Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods

The problem in estimating a social accounting matrix (SAM) for a recent year is to find an efficient and cost-effective way to incorporate and reconcile information from a variety of sources, including data from prior years. Based on information theory, the paper presents a flexible 'cross entropy' (CE) approach to estimating a consistent SAM starting from inconsistent data estimated with error, a common experience in many countries. The method represents an efficient information processing rule-using only and all information available. It allows incorporating errors in variables, inequality constraints, and prior knowledge about any part of the SAM. An example is presented, applying the CE approach to data from Mozambique, using a Monte Carlo approach to compare the CE approach to the standard RAS method and to evaluate the gains in precision from utilizing additional information.