External borrowing,capital formation and growth in developing countries

Since the summer of 1982 the banking community has been faced with an international debt crisis of unprecedented dimensions. The debt rescheduling agreements that have been negotiated since then involve sums totalling no less than $ 100 billion. However, they give the international financial system no more than a breathing-space. The following two articles deal with different aspects of this crisis. Rainer Erbe examines the question as to what growth effects were associated with external borrowing. Can a lack of growth effects be made responsible for the crisis or were other factors more important? This is followed by an article by Anton Konrad who discusses the proposals which have been made for long-term crisis management. What are their chances of success?     

South Korea: Successful large-scale international borrower

At the end of 1982 South Korea had foreign debts of US $ 38 billion, the third highest total for a developing country after those of Mexico and Brazil. In contrast to these countries, however, South Korea has avoided debt crises so far. In view of the 20 or more rescheduling operations carried out in 1982, the country is at present a model for a successful programme of borrowing. The development of this Far Eastern country therefore deserves closer examination.     

Consequences of the debt crisis

The indebtedness of the developing countries to foreign creditors which has expanded rapidly over the past few years rose by a further 18% last year and by the end of the year had reached the estimated level of $626 billion. The debt servicing for this sum amounted to $131 billion.¹ The rescheduling operations required as a result of the accumulating payment difficulties reached a volume of $40 billion. According to the Mexican Minister of Finance, the restructuring of Mexico's foreign debts alone was the largest multilateral support operation in modern financial history.²     

The debt burden of developing countries

According to OECD data¹, the external debts of developing countries totalled $ 625 billion at the end of 1982. As this does not include certain forms of credit, their indebtedness can be estimated at more than $ 700 billion, of which $ 500 billion consists just of bank loans. The resultant burden of interest and redemption payments has become so great that many more developing countries will be forced to seek rescheduling in the future. The debt burdens of developing countries and the vulnerability of the world financial system must be reduced for development policy reasons and also to ensure that the economies of the industrialised countries are not harmed. The following study suggests how this may be done.     

我国国债的财富效应探析——1985~2002年间我国国债规模对消费需求影响的实证研究

目前国内对国债效应的研究,集中于国债对投资的影响,较少论及国债对居民消费的影响。然而,国债对消费的影响同样重要。居民可能将国债作为金融财富,也可能认为国债对应着未来的税收。国债对消费的影响,取决于国债在居民的预算约束中是作为财富还是作为预期的未来税收而存在。若居民更多地将国债作为一种金融财富而不是未来税收,则国债促进消费增长并带动经济增长;反之,则形成“李嘉图等价效应”所描述的金融挤出效应。通过对1985~2002年的数据进行回归,作者发现我国国债呈现出较强的财富效应。但是,这一财富效应却是与国债存量相关的。若公众的信心发生变化,消费需求将迅速下降。这就要求国债政策的淡出只能是渐进的,以避免对居民消费造成较大的冲击。     

Consumer debt attitudes: The role of gender,debt knowledge and skills

The link between financial attitudes and consumer financial market behaviour is well documented. However, little is known about the role of financial knowledge and skills—the main components of the financial literacy construct—in shaping debt attitudes. This link is especially absent from the gender perspective. This study focuses on consumer debt literacy and debt attitudes. A representative sample of adult Poles (N = 1,004) was participated in a computer‐assisted telephone interview. Latent class analysis was employed to reveal their debt attitudes, and subsequently, links between debt literacy and debt attitudes were studied with multinomial regression models. The results show that respondents in Poland can be grouped into five classes exhibiting different attitude profiles. The structure of debt attitudes is complex and differs from a simple unidimensional pro‐debt/ anti‐debt construct. Although this study did not find significant gender differences either in the conceptualization of debt attitudes or in their drivers, the results showed that in all but one class, consumer attitudes are strongly linked to either debt knowledge or debt skills or to both. Debt skills were revealed to be a particularly strong predictor of consumer debt attitudes.     

企业投融资互动机制下的信贷违约风险——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

本文以中国上市公司为样本,实证分析了在负债融资与投资决策相互作用的机制下企业信贷违约风险的变化规律.实证结果表明,整体上投资支出会促进信贷违约风险,负债融资会对其产生抑制;在负债融资导致的过度投资情形下,企业投资对信贷违约风险的促进作用将更明显,而过度投资会抑制企业最优负债融资水平,从而带来更低的最优信贷违约风险;短期负债融资会促进企业信贷违约风险的增加.文章为信贷违约风险控制探寻了一种从企业微观财务决策角度进行分析的全新视角.     

Changes in factors influencing consumer debt among Scottish families, 1984—1987

The major objective of this study was to determine socio-economic and debt management factors causing debt problems among Scottish families. Data for this study were collected from the records of the debt counselling segment of the Citizens Advice Bureau in Glasgow, Scotland, during 1984–87. The final sample consisted of 404 cases selected at random. Variables selected for the study included the following socio-economic characteristics: sex, household size, marital status, employment status, sources of income, and total income. Debt variables included in the study were total debt, sources of debt, amount of debt from each source, and total monthly debt payment. Total debt owed by debtors increased by 283% over the 4 year period from 295,113 in 1984 to 836,409 in 1986. The majority of the households had debt to income ratio of 0.50 and on the average owed on eight different types of loans. The largest proportion of debtors (87%) borrowed from finance companies and the largest sums of total debt were also owed to finance companies (52%). Finance companies consistently held this position over the 4 year period. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) results indicate that employment status, number of sources of borrowing, marital status and sex significantly explained the variation in total debt burden. The number of sources is an important factor in debt management. As the numbers of sources of borrowing increases, not only the management of transactions gets complicated and one can easily lose sight of total debt burden, but it also indicates that people start borrowing from high cost sources of borrowing, such as store credit and finance companies. Educators need to emphasize the importance of the variation in cost of borrowing related to various sources in their materials, and these educational efforts should be targeted to females, singles and those who are recently separated and divorced.     

负债制度阈值对中国上市公司成长性的影响

以2001—2010年中国A股9860家上市公司为样本进行实证分析,发现不同负债水平对公司成长性的影响存在差异:当负债水平处于大于等于20%且小于70%之间时,负债对公司成长性产生显著正向作用;当负债水平大于等于70%或小于20%时,负债对成长性作用不明显。这在一定程度上证明,证监会发审委在审核IPO申请时对资产负债率不超过70%且不低于20%的要求,已成为中国特有的负债制度阈值,对上市公司优化资本结构起到了引导作用。     

主权债务危机早期预警系统研究——基于BP神经网络方法

文章运用BP神经网络方法,构建了主权债务危机早期预警系统。通过对1991-2006年54个发展中国家宏观经济及债务状况数据的实证研究发现,该系统能对未来三年内出现的主权债务危机事件起到较好的预警作用,预警总体效果达86.7%。同时,与二元Logistic模型进行预测对比,发现运用人工神经网络方法对主权债务危机进行预警比二元Logistic方法具有相对优势。     

European Sovereign Debt Crisis's Influence and Enlightenment on China

对中国的欧洲主权债务危机从形成到逐步影响中国的各个方面进行详尽分析和探讨,包括对汇率、对外贸易、金融政策等的影响,指出应以欧洲主权债务危机为戒,改进中国地方政府债务的监管体制。     

最优债务条件与经济增长--基于中国省级经验数据

债务曾在中国过去长期高速经济增长中被奉为“神明”,又在当前经济步入“新常态”阶段而被斥为“魔鬼”,事实上,债务本身并无“善恶”之分,也不存在各地区普适的最优债务安排,合理的债务规模和结构应该适于经济体所处发展阶段。为探究经济增长目标下的最优债务条件,本文基于1978－2012年中国省级面板数据,实证研究发现中国的债务规模和债务结构之间存在着相互制约关系,债务总规模与公共性债务“双重增长”存在“最优解”,在此“最优解”之前无论是债务规模的增长或是公共性债务的增长均会带来经济增长,而在达到这一上限后,要实现经济增长,唯有在降低债务规模或是债务结构调整之间做出权衡。债务规模和债务结构的“最优解”以区域金融结构、财政收支、国有经济投资比重、城镇化率等为条件,稳健性检验再次验证了上述结论,并在此基础上提出相关政策建议。     

External Debts,Institutions and Growth in SSA

The study investigates the impact of institutional quality on the external debt–growth nexus in SSA. Data from 36 SSA economies over the 1996–2013 periods were used. The results from the IV-System GMM imply that institutional quality has robust effects on the external debt–growth nexus. Thus, the impact of external debt on growth is through host nation’s institutional quality. However, the mediating effect of institutional quality on this nexus is up to a point. When a country is on the wrong side of the debt-laffer curve, external debt becomes irrelevant; and institutional quality can no longer help.     

乡村债务规模、结构、风险及原因分析

农村税费改革与农业税取消之后,乡村债务问题变得更加突出,影响了农村经济生活的稳定,阻碍了社会主义新农村的建设步伐。依据实地调查资料,从债务规模、债务结构、债务风险、债务成因等方面对乡村债务问题进行分析,基本结论为乡村债务规模较大、债权人结构复杂、债务用途多样、借款利息较低及债务成因多元化。     

行业内上市公司债务权益选择中的羊群行为——来自我国上市公司的经验证据

传统的资本结构理论研究主要集中考察行业间公司资本结构的决策行为,而较少考察行业内公司资本结构的决策模式.文章从公司管理者的心理活动和行为模式出发,实证考察我国行业内上市公司债务权益选择中的羊群行为.实证研究结果发现,在控制了公司基本特征对债务权益比的影响后,10个样本行业中有7个行业在债务权益选择中存在显著的羊群行为,债务权益比的行业均值对行业内上市公司的债务权益比产生显著的正向影响.     

Leases and Debt: Complements or Substitutes? Evidence from Belgian SMEs

This study investigates the lease–debt relationship for Belgian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Traditional finance theory suggests that leases and corporate debt are substitutes: both leases and debt are fixed, contractual obligations that reduce the firm's debt capacity. More use of leases should therefore be associated with less non-lease debt financing. However, some empirical studies find that for large firms, leases and debt are complements. A theoretical explanation for this so-called "leasing puzzle" is based on the tax advantage of leasing over debt. However, in Belgium, tax differences between lessor and lessee do not affect the choice between leases and debt, because the lessee is considered to be the fiscal owner of the assets. He may write off these assets for tax purposes, and the interest part of the lease payments are deductible from his taxable income. Leases and debt can therefore be expected to be substitutes. This hypothesis is tested for a sample of 5,595 firm-year observations for 1,119 Belgian nonfinancial SMEs in the 1995–1999 period. The results indeed provide strong support for the substitution hypothesis: more debt is associated with less leases.     

我国上市公司偿债能力指标的分布特征研究

通过对上海证券交易所2004年上市公司年报的4个财务比率指标的统计分析,发现表征短期偿债能力的财务比率指标服从对数正态分布,表征长期偿债能力的财务指标服从正态分布。另外,对近几年上市公司年报的数据进行统计分析,证实短期偿债指标和长期偿债指标的分布特征表现相对稳定,这同时也说明我国上市公司整体上偿债能力表现比较稳定,波动不是很大。     

经济增长视角下地方政府债务负担率动态标准研究--基于西部Y省县域非线性Panel Data模型

政府债务负担率标准并非固定,主要由债务边际社会成本与债务边际社会收益相等决定,如果其边际成本降低或边际收益提高,债务负担率标准将提升,相反会下降。本文将地方政府债务置于财政支出与经济增长的关系框架下,通过对西部Y省106个县域地区进行实证研究,发现不同时间段对应的债务负担率标准不同,2005－2006、2007－2008、2009－2010分别为14．28％、11．98％和14．16％,同时也发现各地地方政府在竞相超越既定债务负担率标准举债,带来较大的债务风险隐患。因此,防范我国当前地方政府债务风险需要重视两个问题：一是根据各地实际债务边际社会成本和收益,制定动态债务负担率标准,用于债务风险的监测预警;二是在解决实际债务负担率较高问题上,重点要从数量上化解债务转化为从质量上提高债务边际社会收益和降低债务边际社会成本。     

促进经济增长的中国政府最优债务率测算

通过构建跨期模型来探讨一国债务与经济增长的关系。理论分析表明,一国债务与经济增长之间存在倒U形关系,即在一定条件下,当一国的债务低于最优值时,提高债务对经济增长具有促进作用,而当债务超过这一最优值时,增加债务则对经济增长具有副作用。在理论分析的基础上,构建了线性时间序列模型,基于中国样本数据证实了中国政府债务与中国经济增长之间倒U形关系的存在,并测算出现阶段中国政府最优债务率约为47％。这一结论表明：中国政府债务目前尚处于合理范围,虽然长期来看中国政府债务的提升空间已不大,但短期内进一步提升的空间犹存,这为中国政府充分运用财政政策提升尚处于探底阶段的中国经济预留了政策空间。     

浅谈“美国国债困境”对我国的影响

美国国债危机引发世界恐慌,中国作为美国国债最大的持有者,如何能够在风云变幻的国际资本运作中独善其身,是目前最为国民关注的问题。中美经济相互依赖是多年形成的格局,美国国债危机也严重干扰了中国的金融秩序。中国应从美国国债危机中吸取教训,完善外汇储备管理机制,鼓励利用外汇储备,加强对投机资本的监管,减少对他国经济的依赖性,尽最大可能减少美国国债危机带来的冲击。