Exchange rate undervaluation and R&D activity

We examine how real exchange rate undervaluation policy affects research and development (R&D) activity. Using a panel data set comprising 49 developed and developing countries covering 1996–2011, we show that undervaluing the exchange rate retards technological innovation. Such a negative impact is particularly prominent for developed countries. This paper provides new insights into the real effects of undervaluation policy on the economy. An implication of our work is that countries implementing exchange rate undervaluation policy should be mindful of its potential negative effects on research and development activity.     

Accounting for real exchange rate changes in East Asia

This study measures the proportion of real exchange rate movements that can be accounted for by movements in the relative price of non-traded goods using the framework employed by Engel [1999. Accounting for U.S. real exchange rate changes. Journal of Political Economy 107, 507–538]. Among the 21 bilateral Asian-Pacific real exchange rates considered here, that proportion is found to be trivially small for all possible horizons that the data allow – from one month up to 25 years. This pattern appears unaffected by the cross-sectional variation in either income level, or the degree of openness present among these Pacific-Rim economies. The only qualifications occur when considering fixed (or semi-fixed) exchange rate regimes.     

Foreign exchange intervention and equilibrium real exchange rates

Monetary authorities intervene in the currency markets in order to pursue a monetary rule and/or to smooth exchange rate volatility caused by speculative attacks. In the present paper we investigate for possible intervention effects on the volatility of nominal exchange rates and the estimated equilibrium behaviour of real exchange rates. The main argument of the paper is that omission of intervention effects – when they are significant – would bias the ability to detect any PPP-based behaviour of the real exchange rates in the long run. Positive evidence for this argument comes from the experience of six Central and Eastern European economies, whose exchange markets are characterised by frequent interventions.     

International portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility in emerging Asian markets

This paper investigates the effects of equity and bond portfolio inflows on exchange rate volatility using monthly bilateral data for the US vis-a-vis seven Asian developing and emerging countries (India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand) over the period 1993:01–2015:11. GARCH models and Markov switching specifications with time-varying transition probabilities are estimated in addition to a benchmark linear model. The evidence suggests that high (low) exchange rate volatility is associated with equity (bond) inflows from the Asian countries toward the US in all cases, with the exception of the Philippines. Therefore, capital controls could be an effective tool to stabilise the foreign exchange market in countries where flows affect exchange rate volatility.     

Which Fundamentals Drive Exchange Rates? A Cross‐Sectional Perspective

Standard present‐value models suggest that exchange rates are driven by expected future fundamentals, implying that exchange rates contain information about future fundamentals. We test this key empirical prediction of present‐value models in a sample of 35 currency pairs ranging from 1900 to 2009. Employing a variety of tests, we find that exchange rates have strong and significant predictive power for nominal fundamentals (inflation, money balances, nominal GDP), whereas predictability of real fundamentals and risk premia is much weaker and largely confined to the post–Bretton Woods era. Overall, we uncover ample evidence that future macrofundamentals drive current exchange rates.     

How important is the term structure in implied volatility surface modeling? Evidence from foreign exchange options

We claim that previously proposed parametric specifications that linearly approximate the term structure of the implied volatility surface (IVS) in option prices fail to capture important information regarding the expectations of market participants. This paper proposes a parametric specification for describing the IVS that allows flexible modeling of the term structure through a Nelson and Siegel (1987) factorization, recently proposed by Diebold and Li (2006) in the context of yield curve modeling. The specification is tested on implied volatilities from the over-the-counter foreign exchange options market, where contracts with long expiries are actively traded and thus the term structure dimension of the surface should be very important. We first show that the proposed volatility specification can consistently and remarkably improve our ability to describe the surface on any given day. We then establish the economic relevance of the incremental information captured by our proposed specification by showing that it can produce more accurate forecasts of implied volatility that can support long-term profitable trading strategies in the absence of transaction costs.     

From the bird's eye to the microscope: A survey of new stylized facts of the intra-daily foreign exchange markets

This paper presents stylized facts concerning the spot intra-daily foreign exchange markets. It first describes intra-daily data and proposes a set of definitions for the variables of interest. Empirical regularities of the foreign exchange intra-daily data are then grouped under three major topics: the distribution of price changes, the process of price formation and the heterogeneous structure of the market. The stylized facts surveyed in this paper shed new light on the market structure that appears composed of heterogeneous agents. It also poses several challenges such as the definition of price and of the time-scale, the concepts of risk and efficiency, the modeling of the markets and the learning process.     

Dynamic of foreign direct investment in the states of Mexico: An analysis of Markov's spatial chains

The aim of this investigation is to analyze the evolution of the spatio-temporal distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) across Mexican states. The literature that analyzes foreign direct investment in Mexico is numerous and diverse; however, it is argued that the analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of FDI conditioned to spatial interaction effects in Mexico is still absent. In this sense, by applying the spatial Markov chain approach as proposed by Rey (2001), we found a divergence process in the FDI inflows among Mexican states that seem to get stronger over time. In particular, during the period from 2006 to 2013, the process of divergence toward higher-FDI inflows quantiles occurs among states spatially associated with neighbors in lower-FDI quantiles.     

Dinámica de la inversión extranjera directa en los estados de México: un análisis de cadenas de Markov espaciales

The aim of this investigation is to analyze the evolution of the spatio-temporal distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) across Mexican states. The literature that analizes foreign direct invesment in Mexico is numerous and diverse; however, it is argued that the analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of FDI conditioned to spatial interaction effects in Mexico, is still absence. In this sense, by applying the spatial Markov chain approach as proposed by Rey (2001), we found a divergence process in the FDI inflows among mexican states that seems to get stronger over time. In particular, during the period from 2006 to 2013, the process of divergence towards higher-FDI-inflows quantiles occurs among states spatially associated with neighbors in lower-FDI-quantiles.