On the Structure,Dynamics, and Use of the Asset Share in the National Wealth

In this article, the share of assets in the national wealth is taken as the object of analysis and forecast. The dynamics, structure and use of the basic elements of Russia’s productive assets—natural capital (energy inputs), human capital, and active fixed assets—are analyzed. It is shown that the natural capital will inevitably be replaced by human capital in combination with the asset share in fixed capital, and that the economy in the coming transition period (2018–2030) will necessarily transform to an innovative growth model.The annual balances of changes in the components of the assets in the national wealth for 2012–2016 are developed. The impact of the crisis is estimated. Some promising directions for using the accumulated human capital together with the asset share in fixed capital for a transition from a resource-based to an innovation model of Russia’s development are considered and substantiated.     

Key Tasks and Development Prospects for the Russian Economy in the Context of Kondratiev’s Long Cycles

The rationale behind the key tasks in the development of Russia’s fuel and energy complex, agroindustrial complex, defense industry, and machinery industry and construction complexes has been presented using the apparatus of Kondratiev’s long cycles, i.e., upward and downward waves in the production and export of oil, grain, arms, cars, etc. as well as in the supply of new housing. The trends have been analyzed using Rosstat data for a 100-year period. The analysis has shown how the past rates of development and proportions affect the present and future growth of Russia’s economy. Some of the main tasks have been formulated for the future development of Russia’s economy until 2030. The processes of import substitution and the replacement of oil exports with grain, arms, and cars have been discussed. The issue of the social and economic significance of solving the housing problem in Russia has been raised.     

Assessing systemic risk and its determinants for advanced and major emerging economies: the case of ΔCoVaR

The paper examines conditional risk relationships among sovereign CDS prices and stock market indices for 11 economies with particular relevance for international portfolio investment holdings (Canada, China, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain, the USA, and the UK). The analysis is based on delta conditional value at risk (ΔCoVaR). The UK, France, and Italy significantly contribute to the overall systemic risk in both markets. The USA, the UK, and Russia appear to be important contributors to it in the stock market. In the meantime, the advanced economies exhibit much higher resilience to the systemic risk propagation in comparison with China, Brazil and Russia. Gross government debt to GDP, state fragility index, EU membership and world gross GDP share of a country in distress are key determinants of ΔCoVaRs for the sovereign CDS prices. Stock market total value traded to GDP and world gross GDP share of a country in distress drive ΔCoVaRs in the stock market. In both cases geographic distance tends to deter systemic risk propagation. Inflation, trade and financial openness as well as common language and time zone differences are less important predictors of bilateral ΔCoVaR exposures.     

Investments in fixed assets and human capital: Two interconnected drivers of socioeconomic growth

This paper highlights the great importance of increasing the share of the knowledge economy in the GDP, which is currently 13% in Russia, compared to 30% in Western Europe and the United States. The accelerated growth in the fixed asset and investment in the knowledge economy at levels of 20–25% and 20%, respectively, by 2020 have been justified. Attention is drawn to the inadequately low, declining level of investment in healthcare in Russia, the GDP share of which is twice as low as in 25 developed countries and 1.5 times lower than in 30 developing countries, which is reflected in the increased mortality rate. The WHO data on the average life expectancy of men has been analyzed; it amounts to only 58.7 years, which is below the age of retirement in Russia. In developed countries, the average life expectancy of men is 13–14 years higher. It has been concluded that, in order to tackle the long-term challenges in human capital, it is necessary to boost labor productivity and increase wages by reducing the groundless differentiation of the population’s income to the level of Western European countries.     

Russia and Europe: Energy union or energy conflict?

The possible forms of interaction between Russia and Europe in the field of energy in the near and a more distant future are analyzed. Their relations are examined from the political, legal and, most importantly, economic point of view. The world and European demand for energy resources is evaluated. The most promising hydrocarbon resources are examined, with the projections of energy consumption in Russia made considering the dynamics of the development of Russia’s economy. All these factors determine the forms the interaction between Russia and Europe in the energy field may take, taking into account both Russia’s own energy needs and Europe’s demand for Russian energy resources.     

Major overhaul of housing stock in economic and social terms

The article considers the state of Russia’s housing stock and peculiarities of existing schemes of accumulating finances for a major overhaul of apartment houses. The questions of the efficiency of the use of funds attracted from various sources of financing, and the social consequences of increase in population’s expenses for housing and communal services due to the introduction of mandatory payments for major overhaul have been discussed. An alternative way to finance the major overhaul has been proposed.     

On the Development of Russia’s Information and Communication Technologies Ecosystem

A quantitative model of Russia’s information and communication technologies (ICT) ecosystem has been proposed that describes the main relationships between its participants, as well as the impact of environmental factors on the functioning of the ICT ecosystem. Based on the model, we have assessed the long-term (until 2030) potential for the development of Russia’s ICT sector in the case of the state’s active and stimulating strategy and the formation of an advanced system of institutions. We have also evaluated the contribution of the ICT sector to the macroeconomic dynamics while implementing the target scenario.     

Information content of Canadian oil and gas companies' historic cost earnings and reserves disclosures*

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is to determine which of three alternative annual report disclosures of oil and gas reserves, namely historic capitalized costs, quantities, or discounted cash flows, contributes information content incremental to that provided by earnings per share. Information content is defined as the ability of a reserves disclosure to account for changes in common stock prices. Multiple regression analysis was used to evaluate the extent to which each of the three alternative reserves disclosures account for common stock returns after first recognizing the information provided by an earnings per share variable. The annual reports of 67 Canadian oil and gas exploration and development corporations were used to gather the data for each of the years 1983 to 1987. The results indicate that the earnings per share provides some significant evidence of information content. The capitalized costs disclosure, the quantities disclosure, and the discounted cash flows disclosure provide significant evidence of incremental information content in a pooled analysis of the five-year period; however, the results for any one disclosure method are not consistent throughout the analyses of each of the five years.     

Russia’s economic space: Currencies, oil, investment

An attempt is made to estimate the influence of the currency and oil factors on the volumes and distribution of investment flows to Russian regions. The emphasis is on a correlation analysis of the impact of changes in the values of nominal foreign exchange rates (the US dollar and the Euro) and the world prices of Urals crude oil on the dynamics of Russian and foreign investments in different regions and regional groups of Russia over a ten-year period (1995–2005). Significant intergroup differences in the degree of investment susceptibility to the currency and oil factors are brought to light, resulting from the country’s heterogeneous economic space, its mineral and labor resources, uneven development of its transport infrastructure, the energy spent by local authorities in attracting investments, etc.     

俄罗斯可靠吗?

盟友的基础是共同的战略安全利益,因此盟友的可靠性主要取决于共同安全利益的大小:大则可靠性强,小则可靠性差。俄罗斯是否可靠主要取决于中俄同盟对俄有多大的战略利益。无论俄罗斯对中国友好与否,俄都没有比与中国结盟更好的战略选择。美国不接纳中、俄为盟友的国际环境,中国不断增长的军事实力以及中国的战略合作诚意,三者能使其很容易看到俄罗斯履行盟友责任利大于弊。     

我国A股市场中的波动性之谜与市场情绪

本文使用Campbell和Shiller(1988)基于对数线性RVF的VAR非线性Wald检验方法对我国A股1994-2009期间的数据进行实证研究,结果表明样本期间我国A股股价相对其基础价值表现出"过度波动"的迹象,无论是常数超额收益率模型还是V-CAPM模型都无法对此进行解释。通过进一步定义市场情绪指数来分析这种"波动性之谜"现象的原因,结果发现市场情绪和股市"过度波动"之间存在相互作用机制,市场情绪能够对股价波动提供额外的解释。     

中俄石油合作新态势分析

1993年以来我国成为石油净进口国,而且进口额呈现逐年上升的态势。随着中国经济的快速发展,我国石油供需矛盾日益突出。俄罗斯是我国实现＂走出去＂石油战略的首选国家。本文分析了中俄石油合作的优势和障碍,并给出了相应的解决对策：政府重视,达成一揽予协议,深化互信,谋求合作共赢等。     

Dynamic paths of innovation in natural resource industries in Australia and Norway since World War Two

This paper challenges Ed Barbier’s influential contribution to the resources and economic development debate and extends our understanding of the process of resource-based development in two relevant economies since World War Two. We argue that: the expansion of resource-based industries remained a viable path of economic development in the ‘contemporary era’ since the 1950s; nations have modernised their economies while continuing to invest in resource industries; and innovation frontiers more than physical frontiers shaped the development of natural resource industries. We build our argument by providing a comparative study of two successful resource-based economies, Australia and Norway. Our focus is on aquaculture and offshore oil and gas, growth industries in both countries. Aquaculture is renewable and of recent origin, offshore oil and gas is non-renewable but with a longer history in other nations. Differences between the two nations are also discussed, particularly the narrower product specialisations of Norway. In both nations and both industries, though, there are common patterns of knowledge-intensive development through three stages – learning from older and imported technologies, the development of national capabilities, and their exploitation overseas through internationalisation – that draw upon the relationship between the resource sector and its supporting enabling sector.     

Social and economic development of Russia: an analysis and a forecast

The article contemplates the main trends of the socio-economic development of Russia, which have prevailed in recent years. The factors which cause the slowing the country’s economic dynamics are identified and described. The tasks for the long-term development of Russia are formulated. The issues concerning the actual and desired rate of economic growth are considered. Estimates of the resources required to implement the tasks above are revealed. Measures to increase the rate and quality of economic growth in Russia are proposed.     

Strategy of transition to economic growth

The author analyses the factors that predetermined the negative dynamics of the Russian GDP in 2015 and expresses a number of ideas that should be implemented in order to achieve recovery in Russia. The author pays special attention to mutual economic sanctions in Russia and the West, decision errors made by the country’s financial authorities, and proposals for adjustments to national macroeconomic policy.     

Development characteristics of Russia’s ground transport types at the present time

The state and development prospects of the leading sectors of Russia’s transport complex—automobile and railway types—are reviewed in the paper. Special attention is paid to the analysis of transport growth factors, including international ones, and problems of modernization of the infrastructure and railway stock. Some results of reforming rail transport are represented.     

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian,economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term

What are the economic effects of the Ukraine war for Ukraine, Russia, and the rest of Europe? In this study, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) sheds light on the immediate consequences on the one hand, but also on the medium-term structural changes caused by the largest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian crisis. Pre-war, almost 19 m people lived in those regions that are currently directly affected. Refugee inflows to the rest of Europe are likely to be at least three times greater than in 2015/2016. As Black Sea ports come under Russian assault, Ukraine has lost its ability to sell more than half of its exports, primarily agricultural commodities and metals. Western financial support will become ever more important as the war continues. Turning to Russia, sanctions will have a very serious impact on that country’s economy and financial sector. Despite being partly hamstrung by the fact that a large proportion of Russian reserve assets are frozen in the EU and G7, the central bank managed to stabilise financial markets by a combination of confidence-building and hard-steering measures: capital controls, FX controls, regulatory easing for financial institutions, and a doubling of the key policy rate. The medium-term and long-term outlook is negative. As a result of the war and the sanctions, the rest of Europe faces a surge in already high inflation; this will weigh on real incomes and will depress economic growth. Many European countries rely heavily on Russia for oil and gas imports: import shares are over 75% in Czechia, Latvia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria with respect to natural gas; Slovakia, Lithuania, Poland, and Finland with respect to oil and petroleum; and Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Denmark, Lithuania, Greece, and Bulgaria with respect to solid fuels. Aside from energy, the fallout via trade for the rest of Europe is likely to be small. Non-energy trade and investment links between Russia and many European countries have declined in importance since 2013. There are four main areas of structural change and lasting impact for the EU (and Europe more broadly) as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. First, the EU will get more serious about defence. Second, the green transition will gather pace. Third, broader Eurasian economic integration will be unwound. And fourth, the EU accession prospects for countries in Southeast Europe could (and should) improve.

     

Openness and economic growth in developing countries

Openness and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. — Openness appears to have a strong impact on economic growth especially in DCs which typically exhibit a high share of physical capital in factor income and a low share of labor. In the neoclassical growth model with partial capital mobility, physical capital’s share in factor income determines the difference in the predicted convergence rates for open and closed economies. With a 60 percent share as in many DCs, the convergence rates should differ by a factor of 2.5. The regression results for a sample of open and closed DCs roughly confirm this hypothesis.     

石油冲击对“金砖国家”经济增长和通胀的影响

本文从外生性、长期乘子和短期动态乘子研究石油冲击对"金砖国家"经济增长和通货膨胀的影响。文章引入了Bootstrap方法对短期动态乘子进行了统计推断,结果表明:石油价格对"金砖国家"经济具有外生性;长期而言,油价会显著拉动巴西和俄罗斯的经济增长,还会显著推高俄罗斯的通货膨胀;短期而言,油价会显著刺激巴西、俄罗斯和南非的经济增长,还会显著推高俄罗斯、印度和中国的通货膨胀。本文认为,石油冲击不是导致世界经济衰退的主要原因,但它可能是形成全世界范围内通货膨胀不可忽略的重要因素。     

Portfolio modelling and growth in open economies

The standard BRANSON model is modified in a way which allows one to focus on the short term dynamics of foreign bonds markets, the money market and the stock market—or alternatively the oil market. This allows us to explain the dynamics of the exchange rate and the oil price within a portfolio choice model; also we identify critical expectation dynamics in a more conventional pricing approach to the oil market—expectations determine whether or not the oil market equilibrium is compatible with a stationary price or with sustained oil price inflation. Moreover, a straightforward innovative way to combine a portfolio approach with a growth model is developed. New results are obtained—through multiplier analysis—about the long term effects of changes in the savings rate, the process innovation rate, the product innovation variable and the money supply on the exchange rate and the stock market price; this raises many empirical issues. Finally, the analysis presented sheds new light on the global asset price dynamics in the context of the banking crisis. To the memory of Edward Graham, Petersen Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C.