西部大开发战略认识发展的新境界——学习《江泽民文选》关于西部大开发论述有感

西部大开发战略,是邓小平同志“两个大局”战略思想中非常重要的内容,也是《江泽民文选》中一个十分重要的思想。江泽民同志关于西部大开发的论述,标志着我们党和政府对西部大开发战略的认识又发展到了一个新的境界。在构建社会主义和谐社会、全面推进小康社会建设及社会主义市场经济进一步发展的背景下,重新学习江泽民同志的有关论述,能够使我们更加深刻地感受到,西部大开发战略是西部地区经济社会协调、全面发展的战略。更确切地说,它是在我国进入新的社会历史条件下,西部地区全面协调、自我发展的战略,是以高度凝聚力为保证的战略。     

Transmission of monetary policy in times of high household debt

This paper explores whether the degree of household indebtedness can affect the effectiveness of monetary policy. We take an interacted panel VAR approach, using a panel of 23 countries, thereby obtaining several interesting findings, such as the responses of consumption and investment to monetary shocks are stronger in high levels of household debt. Furthermore, such responses become larger in a contractionary monetary policy stance rather than in an expansionary one, which suggests that monetary policy shocks have asymmetric effects. We have also found that monetary policy has a relatively larger impact in countries with higher share of adjustable-rate loans. Finally, we have found that when a country is in a high-debt state and in a contractionary policy stance, monetary policy is more powerful in countries with a higher share of adjustable-rate loans. We conjecture that these findings support the presence of a cash-flow channel with respect to the transmission of monetary policy in a high household debt state.     

基于激励的能力性经济租金标准探讨

在信息不对称的现实生活中,科学合理有效的激励机制,对于建立现代化企业制度、完善法人治理结构、开发配置人力资源、实现企业价值最大化及合理配置社会资源都具有极其重要的作用。能力性经济租金标准是激励的一种手段,恰当的能力性经济租金标准可以起到客观、公正的激励作用,在一定程度上解决长期激励目标和短期激励目标的利益冲突及激励力度的选择问题。     

The genesis of expectations and of sunspot equilibria

The existence—under certain conditions—of sunspot equilibria in overlapping generations models is a well-known theoretical result, but a lot of research has still to be made to understand whether and how such equilibria may occur as a consequence of a dynamic process. In this paper, we explore a model with individuals having simple utility functions and discover situations in which the dynamic processes of expectations and observed prices do not converge in spite of the existence of static equilibria. In other words, unfounded beliefs do still have a permanent influence on the real economy but induce erratic evolutions.     

金融释放论

本文提出一种解释经济体金融能量释放的理论。本文认为 ,金融能量是由经济体所拥有的金融资源规模及其单位金融资源的产出能力所决定的。金融能量的释放程度是决定GDP水平的关键因素。本文建立了分析金融能量释放的理论模型 ,运用这个模型分析了金融能量释放的内在机制。在此基础上 ,本文进一步探讨了中国金融能量抑制的主要原因。本文的基本结论是 :要使经济体完全释放其所拥有的金融能量 ,关键是金融资源的使用权要实现竞争性配置。     

城乡结合部农民工的社会管理探析——以重庆市白市驿镇海龙村为例

以海龙村为背景,海龙村作为重庆市城乡统筹的示范村,在经济上已经取得了很大的成就,但是在社会管理上一直处于被忽视的状态。通过分析海龙村农民工在社会管理上出现的问题及原因,并且提出现实的政策建议,为相关部门解决好城乡结合部农民工社会管理问题提供帮助。     

A Graphical Exposition of the Inconsistency of Optimal Monetary Plans

Abstract: The author presents a geometrical framework in which the inability of discretionary policy (consistent policy in the sense of Kydland and Prescott) to be socially optimal is demonstrated. Policy based on a rule results in a higher level of utility. The author extends the model to demonstrate that policy of a Rogoff conservative central banker results in approaching the same equilibrium as that from a monetary rule. Finally, the framework shows that attempts to exploit the Phillips curve result in stagflation.     

Application of logistic analysis to the history of physics

Recently, two analyses have tried to put technological progress in a larger context. One interpretation hypothesizes that technological progress is likely to continue at increasingly higher rates of change. Another interpretation, which includes data from the beginning of the universe to the present, suggests that the universe is approaching a transition point in a logistic development of complexity. This logistic development is similar to the way ideas or products diffuse in a population, i.e., the rate of discovery in a field of knowledge is proportional to the amount discovered and the amount to be discovered. To test a part of this hypothesis, a leading indicator field (fundamental physics) was identified and the events in the history of this field were analyzed. Twelve subfields were identified and grouped into six stages. Each stage seemed to demonstrate a logistic-like development. By analyzing both the median time of development and the characteristic time of development of these stages, the overall development of this one field was found to suggest logistic development. These data seem to indicate that development in fundamental physics is slowing down, with at least one subfield beyond string physics yet to be developed. The data tend to support the hypothesis that a knowledge field can develop logistically.     

监理工程师的职业道德

随着中国建设监理制的进一步推行实施,监理工程师对建筑工程的重要作用与影响越来越受到重视。监理人员为业主提供高水平服务,除了专业业务要求精、综合能力要求强之外,其职业道德素养的要求应有更高标准。正视监理工程师在工作中职业道德存在问题,并寻求解决方法提高工程师职业道德,已成为摆在众人面前不容忽视的重要课题。     

An Examination of Key Factors of Influence in the Development Process of Credit Union Industries

The aim of this paper is to analyse credit union industries within a development framework. Explicit consideration is given to credit union industries in four countries – Great Britain, Ireland, New Zealand and the United States. It is argued that in terms of a developmental typology the credit union industry in Great Britain is at a nascent stage of development, the industries in Ireland and New Zealand are at a transition stage while the US credit union industry is mature in nature. In progression between stages the analysis considers the influence of factors such as situational leadership, the complexion of trade associations, professionalisation, regulatory and legislative initiatives and technology. The analysis concluded that while there was a substantial commonality of experience, there were also significant differences in the impact of these factors. This consequently encouraged the recognition of the existence of 'a variety of the species' in respect of credit union development.     

A Further Analysis of Determinants of Health Insurance Coverage

This study uses state-level data to identify key factors influencing geographic differentials in the percentage of the population without health insurance coverage, with particular emphasis placed on the impact of the percentage of the population that is either self-employed or independent contractors. Not surprisingly, the cross-section analysis finds that the percentage of a state's population without health insurance was a decreasing function of median family income in the state, the female labor force participation rate in the state, and the percentage of the state's population age 65 and older, while being an increasing function of the percentage of households in the state with only a female head of household present (no husband present) and the percent of the state's population classified as Hispanic. Reflecting the emphasis in this study, the empirical estimates all also reveal that the percentage of a state's population without health insurance is an increasing the percentage of the state's population that filed a federal personal income tax return that included a Schedule C, which is used in this study as a proxy for self-employment and independent contractors.     

The Counterfactual Method of Marx's Theory of Surplus

The aim of this paper is to show that Marx supports his theory of surplus value by developing a counterfactual argument, that is, by comparing the 'normal' state of a capitalist economy against a hypothetical state in which no surplus is produced. Marx then divides his analysis of value into three successive steps. The first deals with the production of new value in the sphere of production; the second with the process of creation of surplus value, both in the sphere of production and in the sphere of circulation; and the third with the process of equalisation of the rate of profit, which is accomplished via capitalist competition in the sphere of circulation. The paper proposes a formalisation of the three-step analysis and of the counterfactual argument. Marx's three-step analysis is shown to be a scientific analysis of the hidden connections between social relations (expressed in labour flows) and commodity exchange; thus it is not a useless detour.     

An approach to the construction of indexes of technological change and of technological sophistication : The case of agricultural tractors

Two indicators of the output of technological innovation have been developed for the case of agricultural tractors. The tractor is a multicharacteristic product, and a fundamental problem in measuring its technological sophistication or technological change is to determine the relative weights of different characteristics. These relative weights have been approximated by the coefficients of a regression of tractor price with respect to tractor technical characteristics. The indicators developed allow one to measure technical change over time or the relative technical sophistication of different tractor models or tractor firms at a given moment. These indicators can be applied only to multicharacteristic products with easily quantifiable characteristics. However, products that satisfy these requirements account for a very large share of the market for industrial goods. These indicators can be useful in assessing the efficiency of R&D, in analyzing the influence of technological innovation on patterns of trade, and in determining the contribution of changes in the quality of capital goods employed to increases in industrial productivity.     

制造企业新产品开发构思阶段风险评估研究

制造企业的新产品开发是个复杂的系统工程,不仅耗资多、难度大,而且风险性高,在开发过程中经常会出现众多不确定因素,导致新产品开发的失败.分析制造企业新产品开发构思阶段的风险因素与特征,构建有效的风险评估指标体系,采用模糊评价法,对A企业新产品开发构思阶段进行风险评估并提出相应对策,从而降低企业新产品开发风险,提高新产品开发成功率,这对我国企业新产品开发决策具有重要的指导意义.     

A panel data analysis of the effect of corruption on tourism

This study empirically tests the hypothesis that corruption has a negative effect on tourism. Having to pay bribes while on holiday or a business trip increases the costs of travelling to a country where corruption is prevalent. Tourists are thus more likely to travel to countries where these additional costs do not need to be incurred. This hypothesis is tested using a panel data set of over 100 countries and 16 years. The results indicate that a 1-point increase in the Corruption Perception Index (implying a decrease in corruption) results in a 2% to 7% increase in tourist inflows. In addition, tourist inflows rise with GDP per capita, openness and growth and are higher in countries with a temperate climate.     

A Test of Political Control of the Bureaucracy: The Case of Mergers

This paper tests a model of political control of the bureaucracy using a data set of mergers evaluated by the Federal Trade Commission between 1983 and 2000. The results support a sophisticated control model in which the President sets the agenda within the scope of policies acceptable to Congress. Changes in Presidential administration and in the composition of Congress can, but do not necessarily, affect merger policy. Instead, the shift in policy depends on how the institutions of the Presidency and Congress interact both in the previous and current periods.     

An Estimate of the Range of Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment for Australia

This paper estimates the range of equilibrium rates of unemployment for Australia. The estimation technique nests a unique equilibrium rate of unemployment as a special case. It is found for the period 1965–97 that a range of equilibria of at least 6.6 percentage points of unemployment exists in Australia. The lower limit of this range, which is the minimum rate of unemployment consistent with non-increasing inflation, was 2–3 per cent in the 1960s, jumped in the early 1970s and was about 5.6 per cent during the 1990s.     

The role of mortality in the transmission of knowledge

We investigate, both theoretically and quantitatively, a previously unexplored link between gains in adult mortality and productivity growth. Our mechanism allocates a central role to individuals as carriers of useful ideas and to personal contact as an important means of transferring these ideas. It thus implies that disrupting a human life impedes the process of knowledge transmission across time. We derive a simple and intuitive form of the dependence of aggregate knowledge transfer on adult mortality and incorporate it into a model of endogenous growth. We then quantitatively examine the relevance of the proposed link in application to the long-run growth experience of England. Our calibration exercise suggests that the reduction in adult mortality, by improving knowledge transmission across time and encouraging more innovation, was a quantitatively important force behind the takeoff in output per capita.     

The performance effect of two different dimensions of absorptive capacity and moderating role of holding-cash

This study identified two different dimensions of absorptive capacity and examined the relationship between absorptive capacity and a firm’s financial performance. Further, we measured absorptive capacity using both the inputs and outputs involved in its development simultaneously, and investigated the complementary role of holding-cash in the performance effect of two dimensions of absorptive capacity. Our results showed that a firm’s homogeneous absorptive capacity has a positive effect on its short-term performance, while a firm’s heterogeneous absorptive capacity may hinder its short-term business performance. However, a high level of either homogeneous or heterogeneous absorptive capacity is not always useful to a firm’s long-term financial performance. Finally, cash, as a slack resource, was found to be more useful for the performance effect of heterogeneous absorptive capacity than for that of homogeneous absorptive capacity in the short term.