Microfinance in Latin America and the Caribbean: the curse and blessing of ethnic diversity

ABSTRACT

Latin America is one of the most ethnically diverse regions in the world, and is also characterized by high levels of poverty. As a poverty alleviation tool, microfinance emerged in the region and has significantly evolved over the years. However, the implications of the region’s high diversity on the performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs) are however not known. We attempt to fill this gap by providing evidence on the association between MFI performance and indices of ethnic and linguistic fractionalization. Our findings suggest that fractionalization promotes MFI financial performance but is detrimental to outreach depth. These results are robust to various sensitivity tests.     

The Smithian ontology of ‘relative poverty’: revisiting the debate between Amartya Sen and Peter Townsend*

ABSTRACT

Although ‘relative poverty’ is a phrase of immediate recognition, wide circulation and an ever increasing acceptance in the last half century, the concept itself remains surprisingly undertheorised. This paper wishes to try and remedy this discursive deficiency by proposing an ontological elucidation of the nature of our needs. The author re-visits the dispute between Amartya Sen and Peter Townsend — a duel of crossed wires (if not sabres), which can be seen as representative of the various theoretical takes on the nature of relative poverty. While the dispute itself ended with an unfortunate misunderstanding between the two scholars, whose different disciplinary affiliations have done nothing but replicate the rift, the author nonetheless foregrounds the commonality between the two thinkers – their respective identification with Adam Smith. By exploring points of differences and convergence with Adam Smith’s own ontology of needs, which the author reconstructed elsewhere, the paper hopes to offer insights into the ontology of ‘relative poverty’ as well as to suggest that taking this ontology seriously would lead us inevitably to a re-examination of ‘economic methodology’.     

Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

Abstract The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household‐level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999, and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID’s sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one’s confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID’s complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.     

Determinants of Child Labour in Indian States: Some Empirical Explorations (19612–1991)

This paper attempts to examine the phenomenon of child labour in India by conducting a preliminary search for the factors which affect demand and supply of child labour. The incidence of child labour is firstly examined with respect to the socio economie characteristics including dernographic, educational and economie poverty variables. Factor analysis is then conducted to identify patterns of these variables with the incidence of child labour for Indian states using Census data. These possible relationships are formally modelled in an overlapping generations framework which derives two postulated models. The models are estimated using Kmenta’s pooled method which combines variations due to time and state specific factors. These results clearly indicate the presence of vicious and virtuous spirals consisting of the above factors for different states. The supply factors appear to dominate and their roles require further indepth examination

     

On the Instability of Tunisian Money Demand: Some Empirical Issues with Structural Breaks

This paper focuses on the causes of instability of money demand in Tunisia between 1973 and 2013. It has been argued that the main explanatory factors of money demand are national income, monetary market rate and exchange rate. We tested Ambler and McKinnon hypothesis (1985), which assumes that instability is explained by the absence of the nominal exchange rate in the specification of money demand. We found that structural changes are explained by the dependence of the national economy to world shocks, the IMF’s structural adjustment programme at the end of 1986.

     

Contributions of Longitudinal Data to Poverty Measurement in Australia*

Chronic poverty is of greater social consequence than transitory poverty but its measurement requires longitudinal data. This article uses six waves of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey to explore the extent to which longitudinal data contribute to what is known about poverty from cross‐section data. We find an imperfect correspondence between people’s annual poverty status and chronic poverty status. Consequently, policies that aim to reduce chronic poverty using means‐tested benefits may be partially misdirected if beneficiaries are identified using annual income. Furthermore, some households experiencing chronic poverty may fall through the safety net.     

Engines of Growth in China: The Limits of Informal Institutions

Abstract:

Since the 1978 reforms, China has experienced rapid economic and social development. GDP growth has been in the double digits on average yearly, creating the fastest sustained economic growth recorded by a major economy in history. Not only did this transform the economy and society at large, China reached important milestones in terms of reducing poverty and creating prosperity in a short period of time. This article uses the conceptual framework of new institutional economics to examine China’s economic growth and how growth has been achieved largely by ‘informal institutions’ that are grounded in culture, customs, and private interactions that emerge spontaneously. The trajectory by which these informal institutions left their imprint on China’s complex economic landscape and how they can constrain future economic growth are also of central importance. After examining decentralization and risk management practices, property rights, and the legal system, we emphasize the importance of creating formal institutions necessary for long-term growth, most importantly innovation. Preliminary evidence shows total factor productivity is tapering off which may reflect the constraints of China’s institutional environment. This ought to be reversed if China is to enjoy long-term sustained growth.     

Equity and policy effectiveness with imperfect targeting

We propose a general approach that jointly integrates horizontal and vertical equity criteria in the assessment of poverty alleviation programs, with the strength of each criterion being captured through its own inequity-aversion parameter. This contrasts with the assessment of poverty alleviation programs done with simple under-coverage and leakage ratios or with other methods that do not take into account the heterogeneity of the poor and that do not address directly the social benefits of achieving normative criteria. Our methodology is illustrated using Tunisian data and two alternative poverty alleviation policies. We find inter alia that the social ranking of commodity and socio-demographic targeting in Tunisia depends on the policymaker's comparative preference for vertical and horizontal equity.     

Profiling the Fuzzy Latent Structure of Multidimensional Poverty: Toward Valuable Insights for Poverty Policymakers

Abstract

Several multidimensional poverty indices have been proposed, and have been extensively studied in the literature. On the other hand, the need for aggregation of poverty indicators into one multidimensional index has been questioned. It has been argued even so that this aggregation can be misleading for political targeting strategies. Subsequently, some researchers have advocated that the use of the latent class analysis would address these issues. However, this setting does not allow to take into account the fuzzy nature of the latent poverty concept. The contribution here is to use the Grade-of-Membership (GoM) model to profile the fuzzy latent structure of multidimensional poverty, for a more realistic handling of this phenomenon. The application of the GoM methodology to multivariate poverty data for the Tunisian case reveals four most prevalent multidimensional poverty profiles. The results emphasize the role played by contextual effects. Indeed, the rural cluster is suffering more intense deprivation and groups in the central and coastal regions have a more comfortable status in comparison with the group of households residing in inland regions. A thorough analysis of these patterns is put forward in this research, giving valuable insights to policy makers.     

中国贫困的多维测度

本文认为,用单一的收入标准来了解贫困会低估个体真实的贫困状况,很难全面反映个体贫困的复杂性、脆弱性和持久性。本文基于Sen的能力方法,使用中国健康营养调查数据,利用模糊集方法测度中国的多维贫困状况。结论显示,相对于收入贫困,个体的教育、健康和医疗保险等贫困状况更为严重;多维贫困关于测度方法、权重较敏感,等权重下的AF多维贫困被其它方法与权重下的多维贫困严格占优,而在Betti＆Verma权重下的AF多维贫困中,则住房、卫生设施和健康对多维贫困的贡献更大;多维贫困在西部、农村及女性中依然更严重。     

The patterns and determinants of longevity in Russia's regions: Evidence from panel data

In this paper we examine whether regions of Russia have been converging or diverging in their longevity levels during the 1990s and evaluate the divergence effect of the 1998 financial crisis. We also estimate the impact of changes in poverty and public health spending on inter-temporal variations in longevity using regional-level panel data for 77 Russian regions from 1994 to 2000. Finally, we investigate the extent to which the gradual recovery in longevity observed after 1994 was derailed by the 1998 financial crisis and the public policy shifts required for regions to regain their Soviet-era levels of longevity. We find a significant negative effect of the 1998 crisis on longevity independently of the factors related directly to poverty and public health spending. In addition, a permanent negative shock to the incidence of poverty and the amount of publicly-provided health care in a region has enduring consequences on the population's health. Finally, the effect of increases in public health spending on longevity is related positively to the incidence of poverty. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 788–813.     

中国农村居民贫困测度研究——基于山西的调查分析

运用Atkinson（1987）单维贫困测量与Alkire和Foster（2008）多维贫困测量相结合的方法,对山西农村居民贫困情况进行了测度。实证结果表明：从单维视角看,山西农村贫困主要体现在饮用水、消费、收入三个方面,全省三个主要贫困区存在差异;从多维视角来看,山西省农村居民存在多维贫困现象,考虑的贫困维度越多,贫困程度越严重。东部太行山区与北部高寒冷凉区的饮用水问题也比较严重,北部高寒冷凉区相比其他两个地区其教育问题较为突出,北部高寒冷凉区与西部吕梁山区的住房问题也需要关注。因此,山西今后要从多维度识别和瞄准贫困,针对地区贫困特点予以扶持。     

马克思的贫困治理理论及其中国化的历程与基本经验

马克思的贫困治理理论源于他对现实问题的观察与思考,源于他对德国古典哲学、英国古典政治经济学和19世纪法国及英国的空想社会主义学说中贫困治理思想的批判性继承和吸收.以此为基础,本文提出了一个"制度—生产力—个体"分析框架总结了马克思贫困治理理论的主要内容.马克思的贫困治理理论是中国特色贫困治理实践的指导思想.在中国特色贫...     

Francesco Forte’s Contributions to <Emphasis Type="Italic">Essentials of Fiscal Sociology</Emphasis>

Francesco Forte has made major contributions to many areas of economics with the result that his theoretical work and applications have opened new areas of inquiry. This paper connects Forte’s work with the work of Jürgen Backhaus on fiscal sociology. Positioned at the crossroads of economics and sociology, the answers to these questions helped fill the void which gave rise to the field of fiscal sociology. Fiscal sociology is primarily a study of taxation and fiscal policies which illuminates core issues in the sociology of contemporary capitalism. It includes the causes of poverty and inequality in rich countries and adds to our understanding the basis for the inequality between rich and poor countries. Our paper reviews several of Forte’s papers on Pareto’s fiscal sociology and the failure of European planning for less-developed regions. The paper highlights Forte’s contributions to economic theory focusing on Pareto’s sociological theory and the influence of the European Union on regional development.     

Welfare Policy and Precarious Lives: “Welfare Reform” Revisited

Abstract:

Although welfare reform has not been one of the most highly visible policy agendas for the Trump administration, restricting access to public assistance programs has been a part of proposals and actions in a number of areas. The Trump administration’s overall approach to welfare reform was articulated formally in 2018 in an Executive Order and a Council of Economic Advisers Report. To provide some context for a discussion of these two documents, the article begins with a discussion of the different meanings of “welfare reform” identified in institutionalist literature, and a brief overview of some important findings on the impacts of the 1996 welfare reform. It then highlights some key aspects of the Trump administration’s approach to welfare reform and responses from the poverty research and advocacy community.     

On the power of indicators: how the choice of fuel poverty indicator affects the identification of the target population

In light of the creation of the EU Energy Poverty Observatory (EPOV) in January 2018 and the increase in debates on how fuel poverty is measured, we propose a critical analysis of fuel poverty indicators and demonstrate that choosing a given indicator is central to the identification of the fuel-poorpopulation.

First, we conducted an inter-indicator analysis to show how profiles of fuel-poor households vary depending on the indicator selected. We designed a multidimensional approach based on a multiple correspondence analysis and a hierarchical and partitioning clustering analysis to study characteristics of fuel-poor households. We highlight the difficulty of identifying a fuel-poor ‘typical profile’ and show that the composition of the population depends on the choice of the indicator.

Second, we applied an intra-indicator analysis using two objective expenditure-based indicators with thresholds. In particular, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on a logit model including variables describing household and dwelling characteristics. We show that the profiles of fuel-poor households as well as the drivers of fuel poverty vary considerably with the chosen threshold level.Given these findings, we stress the need to review how we currently rely on conventional fuel poverty indicators to identify target groups and give some recommendations.     

Gender imbalance in China’s marriage migration: Quantitative evidence and policy implications

While gender-imbalanced marriage migration across borders and regions and its socioeconomic impacts have been widely reported in developing nations, this paper reports empirical findings based on data from China since 1980. China’s international marriages were characterized with more than 95% of brides from mainland China in the 1980s but the proportion has dropped gradually to around 60% in recent years. Analysis of China’s census data and a panel dataset from Shanghai suggests that proportionally more women migrated from relatively less-developed to more-developed regions through marriage and the variation in income across regions is the key factor behind the migration pattern. China’s gender-imbalanced marriage migration has caused problems such as male marriage squeeze in poor rural areas and “leftover women” in large cities like Shanghai. Policies for poverty reduction and more balanced economic development across regions are recommended for reducing such gender imbalance and the associated socioeconomic problems.     

Pharmacoeconomic analysis for pemetrexed as a maintenance therapy for NSCLC patients with patient assistance program in China

Objective: This study is to evaluate the costs, clinical efficacy, and social benefits of a patient assistance program (PAP) implemented by the China Primary Healthcare Foundation for the use of pemetrexed as a first-line non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) maintenance therapy in China.

Methods: A survival analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 1,366 patients who participated in the PAP. The progression-free survival (PFS) and median maintenance treatment cycle of pemetrexed were analyzed. A 36-month Markov model from a payer’s perspective was constructed to analyze the cost and effectiveness associated with the PAP for pemetrexed. The inputs of the model were sourced from the PAP clinical database and published literature. The study estimated the incremental quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) (pemetrexed plus best supportive care [BSC] vs BSC only), the cost saving of the PAP, the impact on the percentage of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), and poverty headcount ratio (HCR).

Results: The median of PFS and maintenance treatment cycles were 187 days and five cycles (total nine cycles, which included four cycles of induction therapy), respectively. The pemetrexed plus BSC treatment with PAP resulted in an additional 0.12 QALYs over BSC only. The total cost was $48,034.46 and $96,191.57 for the patients who had or had not joined the PAP in 3 years, respectively. Compared to the patients without PAP, the percentage of CHE and HCR with PAP was reduced from 98.39% to 19.91% and 66.98% to 4.89%, respectively, indicating that the PAP substantially decreased the number of patients who had CHE and fallen into poverty.

Conclusion: The study concluded that the pemetrexed PAP generated noticeable clinical and economic benefits to society and to patients. The program also increased patients’ compliance with chemotherapy by allowing patients, for whom the pemetrexed treatment was unaffordable, to continue to receive it.     

环境资源视角下西藏农牧民反贫困研究

贫困是伴随着人类发展而产生的一种社会经济现象,普遍发生在世界上所有的国家地区或民族中.西藏是中国西部自然条件恶劣、人类生存难度大、少数民族人口比重最高、贫困现象最严重的地区之一.切实改善西藏生态环境,解决农牧民的贫困问题,不仅是经济社会问题,更是重大的政治问题.如若不能很好解决,会严重影响西藏人与自然、经济社会与生态环境的可持续发展.本文通过对西藏环境资源与农牧民贫困关系的研究,认为恶劣的环境条件是导致西藏农牧民贫困的重要原因,对如何在保护生态环境基础上将西藏丰富的资源优势转化为现实的经济优势,实现农牧民的脱贫致富提出对策和建议.     

Institutional Analysis of Banks and Personal Loan Companies: Lesson from Poland

Abstract:

The purpose of the article is to explain changes in the behavior of individuals, their actions, choices and ways of thinking that took place under the influence of banking and personal loan companies in Poland. The hypothesis adopted here is that mistakes made in the lawmaking process in Poland caused a number of adverse social changes, which affected the poorest part of society. The article is devoted to legal norms which banks started to apply as prudential regulations after the financial crisis from 2008 to 2015. In 2016, new important legal regulations were introduced which slightly changed the image of the market described in the article. The article describes the results of the author’s research concerning far-reaching social consequences of the regulations introduced at that time. Such consequences include people already in the lowest-income levels of society falling further into poverty, as well as loss of trust in the state as an institution failing to protect all of its citizens.