Regional income inequality in China revisited: A perspective from club convergence

Growing income inequality in China has elicited considerable concern, and consensus has not been reached regarding whether regional income converges into one common steady state. The controversy may be attributed to the various definitions and methodologies for testing convergence. This study analyzes regional income inequality and convergence in China from the perspective of club convergence proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007). Instead of one convergence at the national level, we determine that provincial incomes are converging into two clubs: seven east-coastal provinces (Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shandong, and Fujian) and Inner Mongolia are converging into a high income club, and the remaining provinces are converging into a low income club. In addition, we obtain strong evidence that income inequality within a club decreases, while that between clubs deteriorates over time. Between-club inequality is associated with investment in physical and human capital, as well as population growth rates.     

New evidence of regional income divergence in post-reform Russia

This article investigates regional income convergence in Russia during 2000–2008. We test the hypothesis in which income divergence across regions of the country should give place to income convergence as the country moves toward free market economy with strong market institutions. The study contributes to the existing literature by using the exponential smooth autoregressive Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test in a panel setup, a novel econometric technique, which encompasses cross sectional dependence. Results show strong evidence of on-going regional income divergence in post-reform period.     

Health Expenses: Evidence from the Club Clustering Approach

This paper explores convergence of real health expenses across the Indian states. The new panel convergence methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75:1771–1855, 2007) is employed. The empirical findings suggest that these states form distinct convergent clubs, exhibiting considerable heterogeneity in the underlying health expenses patterns.     

Regional divergence and club convergence in India

This paper examines regional divergence in income across different states in India, and estimates convergence clubs endogenously. The paper makes two useful contributions. First, the data is analyzed using a novel method due to Phillips and Sul (2007) leading to different conclusions in comparison to past studies, and secondly sectoral level data is employed which to our knowledge has not been employed in the literature before. Applying the novel approach to panel data relating to fifteen major states of India for the period 1968/69–2008/09, the results display significant divergence in per capita income across states at the aggregate and sectoral levels. There is also evidence of convergence clubs and variations in the number and composition of clubs across sectors. While three clubs are identified at the aggregate level, at the sectoral level we find three clubs in the industrial sector, two clubs are identified in both the agriculture and services sectors. The final part of the paper deals with the policy implications.     

Are state–local government expenditures converging? New evidence based on sequential unit root tests

Large and persistent gaps in subnational public expenditure have important implications regarding growth, equity, and migration. In this context, we revisit the question of expenditure convergence across the American states to provide more nuanced evidence than found by a small number of previous studies. We employ a methodology due to Smeekes (Bootstrap sequential tests to determine the stationary units in a panel, 2011) that sequentially tests for unit roots in pairwise (real per capita) expenditure gaps based on user specified fractions. In a panel of 48 combined state–local government units (1957–2008), we found that expenditures on highways, sanitation, utility, and education were far more convergent than expenditures on health and hospitals, police and fire protection, and public welfare. There was little evidence of “club convergence” based on the proportion of intraregional convergent pairs. Several historically high-grant receiving states showed relatively strong evidence of convergence. Our results bode well for future output convergence and opportunities for Tiebout-type migration across jurisdictions. They also imply a diminished role for public infrastructure and education spending in business location choices over time and a mixed role for federal grants in inducing convergence.     

Club Convergence in Carbon Dioxide Emissions

We examine convergence in carbon dioxide emissions among 128 countries for the period 1960–2003 by means of a new methodology introduced by Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007a). Contrary to previous studies, our approach allows us to examine for evidence of club convergence, i.e. identify groups of countries that converge to different equilibria. Our results suggest convergence in per capita CO₂ emissions among all the countries under scrutiny in the early years of our sample. However, there seem to be two separate convergence clubs in the recent era that converge to different steady states. Interestingly, we also find evidence of transitioning between the two convergence clubs suggesting either a slow convergence between the two clubs or a tendency for some countries to move from one convergence club to the other.     

Convergence and catching up in ASEAN: a comparative analysis

The increasing diversity of average growth rates and income levels across countries has generated a large literature on testing the income convergence hypothesis. Most countries in South-East Asia, particularly the five founding ASEAN member countries (ASEAN-5), have experienced substantial economic growth, with the pace of growth having varied substantially across countries. Recent empirical studies have found evidence of several convergence clubs, in which per capita incomes have converged for selected groupings of countries and regions. This paper applies different time series tests of convergence to determine if there is a convergence club for ASEAN-5, as well as ASEAN-5 and the USA. The catching up hypothesis states that the lagging country, with low initial income and productivity levels, will tend to grow more rapidly by copying the technology of the leader country, without having to bear the associated costs of research and development. Given the important effects of technological change on growth, this paper also examines whether ASEAN-5 is catching up technologically with the USA.     

Are Indian States Converging in the Post-Reform Period?: An Empirical Inquiry

This paper studies the convergence phenomenon for 23 states of India for the period 1981 to 2001. The decades of the 1980s and the 1990s has been studied separately to comment on the convergence behaviour in the pre reform and post reform period. In addition to that of per capita SDP, convergence of per capita output emanating from the agriculture, industry and the services sector has been analysed to get a deeper insight. Both sigma (σ) convergence and beta (β) convergence have been examined. The study finds absence of sigma (σ) convergence and unconditional beta (β) convergence of per capita NSDP both in the 1980s and 1990s. However, conditional beta (β) convergence estimates reveal that the poorer states are catching up with their richer counterparts in the 1990s. The panel GMM estimates reveal that Indian states converged to their steady state output at a higher rate in the 1990s compared to the 1980s. At the sectoral level, Industry had a higher speed of convergence than agriculture in both decades. Further, divergence rather than convergence is observed for the services sector in both decades.

     

INCOME INSTABILITY AND THE RESPONSE OF THE SAFETY NET

This paper examines the response of safety net transfer and tax programs to earnings and income shocks across recessions since the early 1980s. Safety net programs in the United States are designed to dampen economic instability and maintain basic needs for families. Such programs, including TANF, SNAP (food stamps), and the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), have been tested during and between recessions of the past 30 years, including the recent 2007–2009 Great Recession. I use matched data in the March Current Population Survey (CPS) from 1980 to 2012 to estimate pre‐ and post‐transfer income instability over the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, as well as across recessions. The results are disaggregated by family structure, race, income, and education. Transfer programs are associated with lowered instability levels and flatter trend growth from 1980 to 2012 among socioeconomically disadvantaged subgroups, while the tax system reduces income instability for families in the top 40th percentile of the income distribution. Although the largest instability reductions occur among the poor, since 1980 the safety net appears less responsive to instability for the bottom income quintile, female‐headed families, and black families. (JEL I38, J63)     

Real convergence in Europe: A cluster analysis

In this paper we analyse real convergence in GDP per worker in the EU member states. The aim is to test whether there is evidence of club convergence in the EU, i.e. divergence in GDP per worker. Evidence in favour of cluster or club convergence may be an indication of significant productivity divergences between countries, which may also explain the current turmoil in the euro zone. The results show evidence of different economic growth rates within Europe, which also converge to different steady states, implying divergence in the EU-14. Within the EU-14 member states we observe two convergence clubs, which are not related to the fact that some countries belong to the euro area. Furthermore, Eastern European countries are also divided in two clubs, with a more direct effect of belonging to the euro zone in the composition of the clubs.     

Is eco-efficiency in greenhouse gas emissions converging among European Union countries?

Eco-efficiency refers to the ability to produce more goods and services with less impact on the environment and less consumption of natural resources. This issue has become a matter of concern that is receiving increasing attention from politicians, scientists and researchers. Furthermore, greenhouse gases emitted as a result of production processes have a marked impact on the environment and are also the foremost culprit of global warming and climate change. This paper assesses convergence in eco-efficiency in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. Eco-efficiency is assessed at both country and greenhouse-gas-specific levels using Data Envelopment Analysis techniques and directional distance functions, as recently proposed by Picazo-Tadeo et al. (Eur J Oper Res, 220:798–809, 2012). Convergence is then evaluated using the Phillips and Sul (Econometrica, 75:1771–1855, 2007) approach that allows testing for the existence of convergence groups. Although the results point to the existence of different convergence clubs depending on the specific pollutant considered, they signal the existence of at least four clear groups of countries. The first two groups are core European Union high-income countries (Benelux, Germany, Italy, Austria, the United Kingdom and Scandinavian countries). A third club is made up of peripheral countries (Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece) together with some Eastern countries (Latvia and Slovenia), while the remaining clubs consist of groups containing Eastern European countries.     

State of the “life span revolution” between 1980 and 2000

Using data for 163 countries, state of the “life span revolution” over the period 1980–2000 is studied in terms of measures of cross-country inequality and through least-squares and quantile-regression estimation of simple convergence models. Four main points are noted. First, dynamics of the cross-country distribution of life expectancy during these 20 years seem markedly different from those for the preceding decades: instead of the sharp “convergence” noted until the 1980s, there is lack of convergence and an indication of “divergence”. Second, the divergence is particularly marked during the 1990s. Third, spread of HIV/AIDS has probably been a significant factor in generating divergence during the 1990s. Fourth, besides the sizable temporal heterogeneity, quantile-regression estimates of convergence models reveal a substantial heterogeneity across the top and the bottom quartiles within each period.     

OLD WINE IN A NEW BOTTLE: TRADE OPENNESS AND FDI FLOWS—ARE THE EMERGING ECONOMIES CONVERGING?

This study uses the club convergence methodology of Phillips and Sul (2007) for emerging economies spanning the period 1960–2013 to explore whether such convergence exists and whether the increase of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows has been a global or club phenomenon. We find the absence of a homogeneous convergence club. The results for FDI outflows also reach similar conclusions, suggesting the formation of convergence clubs by stage of development. These results suggest that policies that promote convergence in trade openness and FDI flows would permit countries to benefit from mutual interactions and by greater consistency and efficiency in trade regimes, thus permitting these countries to benefit from openness leading to a race to the top rather than bottom. (JEL F41, C33)     

Labor productivity and technology heterogeneity

This paper investigates the role of technology club heterogeneity in economic growth and convergence. To do so, we break up labor productivity change into three factors – efficiency, technological, and capital–labor ratio changes – while distinguishing the impact of technology club heterogeneity respectively. This allows us to observe what is happening within and between clubs; as well as between the world and club technologies. Our labor productivity decomposition is nonparametric in nature and thus overcomes the issue of specifying functional forms for the club technologies. Our results reveal the existence of technology heterogeneity and divergence: the world technology is defined by advanced and rich countries; there exists intra-convergence phenomena (mostly due to capital–labor ratio change), but inter-convergences (owning to capital–labor ratio and technological changes) are not found. Finally, we argue that follower and marginalized countries have adopted imitating strategies, but with respect to different dimensions, namely technological change or capital–labor ratio.     

Club convergence and clustering of U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions

This study examines the convergence of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions among a panel of U.S. states between the period 1960–2010. This examination is carried out by means of a two-stage procedure. In the first stage, we conduct an endogenous grouping, regression-based convergence test. Unlike previous studies, this methodology endogenously identifies groups of states with emissions that are converging to a similar steady state growth path over time. In the second stage, we evaluate the conditional rate of convergence for the whole sample and for each club using panel data, fixed effects models that control for unobserved, time-invariant heterogeneous effects. More specifically, we examine the rates of convergence conditional on certain structural and non-structural characteristics of the state economy. Results from stage one and stage two suggest that one group of twenty-six states is converging to a unique steady-state equilibrium, and otherwise, the remaining states are diverging. Finally, we discuss different policy approaches to mitigating carbon dioxide emissions based on the club convergence hypothesis.     

Human Capital and the Convergence Process Among Countries

This paper examines the convergence process across countries for the period 1980–2000, giving special attention to the role of human capital as a conditioning factor. The originality of the study is in the use of new proxies for human capital, such as publications and patents ratio and the patents/articles ratio which reflect the efficiency of the scientific work, in contrast to the quantitative measures usually used in the growth literature. The analysis suggests that: (i) convergence is conditional on structural factors, population growth, human and physical capital; (ii) the new proxies of human capital control fairly well the different steady‐states among countries; (iii) the different levels of human capital affect countries differently, according to their levels of development. Higher levels of human capital are suitable to differentiate the convergence process among developed countries, and basic or intermediate levels are more suitable to differentiate convergence among the less developed countries.     

Price convergence in an online virtual world

This paper tests for the existence of price convergence using a unique data set from the largest online game, World of Warcraft. It provides a controlled setting without the usual obstacles that make testing price convergence difficult. These difficulties include trade barriers, transportation costs, imperfections and restrictions in capital markets, and differences in productivity growth. The data set consists of eight structurally identical copies, or worlds, of a virtual macroeconomy. We use the non-linear convergence test developed by Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007), and find price convergence in all eight worlds. We further develop our own simple band of inaction test for price convergence, and under reasonable parameters find price convergence in all eight worlds.     

Is there a “real divergence” in the European Union? A comment

In a recently published paper, Hein and Truger [Hein, E., Truger, A., 2005. European monetary union: nominal convergence, real divergence and slow growth? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 16, 7–33], state that real per capita income in the European Union has developed a long-run process of divergence (real divergence). We discuss their approach towards measuring cross-national income inequality and its evolution over time, and argue that there are good reasons to pursue alternative procedures. We show that alternative measures yield different conclusions concerning the convergence/divergence of prosperity across the EU. Especially, as the divergence result is driven by one or two countries with almost negligible population shares, accounting for population size implies that cross-national income dispersion in the EU has decreased at least since the mid-1990s.     

Growth Convergence and Regional Inequality in India (1981–2012)

There has been significant research effort to study the impact of liberalisation on growth and distribution in India. Using per capita income (PCI) data for the period 1981–82 to 2012–13 (28 regions for the entire period and 31 regions for 2001–2 to 2012–13) at the sub-national level in India we examine the claims of divergence and stratification (twin peak formation) as has been claimed in some of the recent literature. We confirm that there is divergence of PCI. We present the first set of tests of multimodality in the Indian convergence debate using Silverman (J R Stat Soc 43:97–99, 1981; Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. Monographs on statistics and applied probability, Chapman & Hall, London, 1986) procedure. Weighted kernel density plots and multi-modal tests reveal that there is emergence of “multi-modes” in the distribution of PCI, not just twin modes. The spatial pattern of growth reflects an area of stagnation in the eastern-central belt—Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Orissa, and in the north eastern part of India—Assam and Manipur and a decline in Mizoram. Sikkim demonstrates fastest growth, whereas Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala, Maharashtra, Punjab, Tamil Nadu (among the big states) and Himachal Pradesh, and Andaman and Nicobar (small state and Union Territories) maintained their position. Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh (among the southern states), Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland (among the north eastern states) along with Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh, moved up in the growth ladder. The continuation of growth stagnation in most of the BIMARU states poses a challenge to received theories of growth convergence and raises developmental concerns that the increased play of market forces in the Indian economy have not been able to overcome.

     

Technological differences and convergence in the OECD

Abstract. In this paper we test the homogeneity of the technological parameters among OECD countries, which is the maintained hypothesis in most of the empirical growth literature. We first identify differences in the constant term of the convergence equation estimated for the OECD 1960/1990 sample using a fixed- effects estimator. Then we provide a formal test of the homogeneity of technological parameters across groups of countries. We identify at least two different groups within the OECD, with significantly different technologies. Convergence within each group is fast, supporting the notion of club convergence. Nevertheless, the implausible parameter values obtained for the leading technology club casts some doubts on the validity of the Solow model to account for the long run behaviour of this group of countries.