Invoerrechten en het actieve veredelingsverkeer in de E.E.G.

Summary An exporting manufacturer may incorporate in his product imported raw materials or semi-finished products that are subject to an import duty. It will depend on the regulations of his country whether he automatically gets his import duty refunded or has ro apply for a licence to that end. In the latter case the granting of such a licence will depend on the kind of product, and on the economic and political conditions in his country. The author of this article attempts to show:(1) that in the majority of cases an import duty on a product which is going to be reexported, is detrimental to the economy of the country itself, both a short and at long term; and(2) that both methods of refund may work in a community administered by a single, objective and efficient government.If no central government exists, as for example, in the case of the European Common Market, each country will retain jurisducton over refund of import duties at export to countries outside the E.C.M.-area, unless — which is preferable — refund on exports to countries outside the common market is made automatic by common consent.     

地方文化知识在职高旅游专业教学中的传授

高素质的旅游从业人员必须掌握丰富的旅游文化知识,而其中地方文化知识占有极为重要的地位.因此,职高旅游专业在教学中应注重地方文化知识的传授.具体的方法为:归纳法、横向联系法、问题教学法、实践操作法等.     

Persistence in U.S. State Unemployment Rates

Romero‐Ávila and Usabiaga (2007) find that many U.S. state unemployment rates are stationary, a result at odds with the traditional view that unemployment rates are path‐dependent and subject to shocks that have permanent effects. They base their results on multivariate unit root tests that provide for two breaks in mean. This note extends the analysis to directly examine whether the series were fractionally integrated. When no allowance is made for breaking means, the results suggest evidence in favor of hysteresis, an outcome that generally applies when one break in mean is considered. Allowing for two breaks demonstrates that the evidence in favor of the natural rate and the hysteresis hypotheses is temporally sensitive.     

Substitutions among energy imputs in U.S. manufacturing

Summary and Conclusion With cross-section data on the purchases of four energy inputs by 11 U.S. manufacturing industries, Allen partial cross elasticities of input substitution and own price elasticities of demand were computed. The sample set represents 85 percent of total manufacturing energy demand in 1962. The substitution elasticities between fuel oil and natural gas, fuel oil and purchased electricity, and between natural gas and electricity, were statistically significant for about half of the 11 two-digit SIC industries studied. These elasticities ranged between 12.9 and 1.7 with half of them less than 4.0.Importantly, the elasticity of substitution between coal and the above three energy inputs was significantly different from zero in only three manufacturing industries (comprising some 35 percent of total manufacturing energy demand). Thus it would appear that only three U.S. manufacturing sectors will contribute towards the substitution of domestic for international energy sources. Indirect substitution between energy sources, with the consequent implications for the balance of payments, will primarily have to come from the substitution of electricity (from coal-fired plants) for natural gas (from Canada) and fuel oil (indirectly from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America).Similar substitution results were found when all 11 industries were aggregated together or divided into large and small energy demand groups. As well, there appear to be no significant differences in overall substitution response between the two categories of large and small energy users. Supporting the substitution results, we found that the own price elasticity of demand for coal to be about –.5 and not different from zero while the price elasticities for natural gas, fuel oil, and purchased electricity were between –.7 and –2.67 (and statistically different from zero).As a general conclsuion, the substitution of domestic coal for other energy inputs will primarily have to come indirectly through greater use of coal to produce electricity which is purchased by the manufacturing sector. The scope for direct substitution of coal for other energy inputs in U.S. manufacturing is limited to only three sectors and cannot be expected to have an exceptionally large impact on mitigating the inflation and blanace of payments implications of the recent increases in the price of imported energy inputs.This work was undertaken at the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Discussions with George Green, A. Ray Grimes, Jr., Michael Mohr, John R. Moroney, Gorti Narasimham, and Benjamin Wolkowitz are acknowledged. These individuals, as well as the B.E.A. and the author's present employer, remain independent from the views expressed in this study.     

Field publishing performance of U.S. economics departments

Conclusion The purpose of this study is to reduce information costs in the market for graduate education in economics and the market for Ph.D. economists by providing information on research concentration in each of 19 fields for 1980–1986. Some variation in publishing performance across fields is found in highly regarded universities. Unexpected faculty strength is discovered in some middle level departments for particular fields. Among middle- and lower-ranked departments, substantial publishing diversity across fields is evident.     

Broadcast Advertising and U.S. Demand for Alcoholic Beverages

Quarterly data for 1977-1994 on alcohol consumption and advertising are used to estimate a differential demand system, including explanatory variables for broadcast advertising and print advertising. The model explains the growth rate of per capita consumption dependent on explanatory variables for prices, real income, demographic changes, and real advertising by media and beverage. Empirical results also are reported for total consumption of pure alcohol. The results for the three beverages and total alcohol indicate that advertising has little or no effect on demand. The empirical evidence thus supports the notion that regardless of media, advertising affects mainly brand shares.     

The macroeconomics of self-fulfilling prophecies Roger E. A. Farmer MIT Press, 1993, 259 pp.

In The Macroeconomics of Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Roger Farmer argues that dynamic general equilibrium models represent a useful means for organizing and representing one's understanding of macroeconomic behavior. Reasonably small departures from the standard assumptions of Arrow-Debreu economies can lead to equilibria with non-trivial roles for macroeconomic policy. Farmer demonstrates through theory and example the potential for multiple equilibria, which he suggests can be treated by better specification of agents' beliefs. The existence of multiple equilibria creates the possibility of bounded fluctuations due to animal spirits or "self-fulfilling prophecies." The author is indebted to Robert Holland and Chris Waller for comments on a previous draft.     

Relative productivity and factor-intensity in the manufacturing sectors of the U.S. and the U.K. during the nineteenth century

Summary The main objective of the paper is to examine the relationship between relative factor-costs and relative factor-intensity in the American and British textile sectors during the nineteenth century. The empirical attempt is made within an explicit theoretical framework (a model). This framework is based primarily onimplicit analytical arguments made by E. Rothbarth and H. J. Habakkuk while explaining the causes for the superiority of American industrial efficiency as compared with the British. It is shown that various indicators for the textile sectors during most of the second half of the nineteenth century favor a higher capitalintensity in the U.S.This work is part of a Ph.D. thesis written for the University of Rochester Department of Economics. The author is deeply indebted to S. Engerman for his valuable help and comments. He has also benefited from comments by E. Drandakis, G. S. Maddala, F. J. de Jong and T. K. Kumar. Needless to say, the author takes full responsibility for the content of this paper. Currently the author is an Assistant Professor at Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, U.S.A.     

Do conservative governments make a difference in monetary policy? A study of the U.S. and the U.K.

This paper offers an empirical test of the Simon's proposition: Do conservative governments make a difference in monetary policy? Using quarterly data on the inflation rate and the GDP gap, the authors test the hypothesis during the tenure of two regimes: conservatives and non-conservatives, and for two countries, the U.S. and the U.K. Under the assumption that the monetary authority followed a Taylor rule, they evaluate monetary policies pursued by alternative regimes in the two countries. Alternatively, they assume that the monetary authority adjusts money growth in response to deviations of inflation and GDP from their target levels. The estimation results were mixed. The Simon's hypothesis was supported in the U.K. during the Thatcher regime, but not in the U.S. during the Reagan's tenure. The findings for the U.S. in contrast to those obtained for the U.K. indirectly validate the Simon's contention that monetary policy in the U.S. is subject to manipulation by interest groups“Perhaps the ultimate test of the conservative status of government is its willingness to pursue stable monetary policy.”William E. Simon, 1980, p. 8     

International factor migration and the U.S.

Conclusion The model employed is sufficiently realistic to provide conclusions regarding income distribution due to factor migration. While more disaggregation and other models would be revealing, these results correspond to observed positions on migration issues. Owners of a productive factor can be expected to favor migration policy, either the making or enforcing of laws, favorable to themselves. A factor owner's sentiments can be predicted by identifying patterns of friendship. While each productive factor is its own enemy, empirical results for the U.S. identify two pairs of enemies as well: capital/skilled and semiskilled/unskilled labor. Unskilled labor is a friend of capitalists and skilled labor, both of which can be expected to favor their free immigration.     

U.S. professional football game-day attendance

This paper uses Tobit analysis to estimate a model which explains game-day attendance at professional football games in the U.S. Several potential determinants of attendance are accounted for in the model. The data used in the analysis pertain to 392 regular season games played during the 1986 and 1987 National Football League seasons. The estimation results suggest that attendance is greater when the opposing teams—particularly, the home team—are of higher quality. There is also evidence that games expected to be close in score are more heavily attended than those that are not. Rainy conditions reduce fan turnout, although warmer temperatures lessen the negative effect of precipitation. Higher ticket prices lead to lower attendance, and fans are apparently indifferent to whether games are played either indoors or outdoors.     

The Focus Efficiency of U.S. Hospitals

Hospital productivity has been a research topic for over two decades. Whereas much has been learned regarding cost, technical, scale, and allocative efficiency as well as the impact that weakly disposable inputs/outputs have on hospital behavior, we expand on this research by examining size and service offering, or focus, efficiency at the metropolitan area level for US hospitals. By using an extension of the Free Coordination Hull (FCH), we are able to determine whether hospitals in our sample could become more efficient if they provided more services (reduce inefficiency due to too narrow a focus) or fewer services (reduce inefficiency due to too broad a focus). Our results suggest that findings vary among the hospital markets. This approach could be used by policy makers and managers in order to reduce costs by sharing services, reducing services in hospitals, or expanding services in hospitals. Findings from a study such as this should aid reform programs by providing more information on the sources of hospital inefficiency.     

A PROBLEM OF TRANSITION. Henri Pirenne. Mohammed and Charlemagne. (Allen & Unwin. 1939. 10s. 6d.)

A PROBLEM OF TRANSITION. Henri Pirenne. Mohammed and Charlemagne.
NETHERLANDS INDIA. J. S. Furnivall. Netherlands India. A Study of Plural Economy.
IMPERIAL UNITY. J. E. Tyler. The Struggle for Imperial Unity, 1868-1895.
IRELAND. J. L. Hammond. Gladstone and the Irish Nation.     

Briefwisseling tussen S. Vissering en N. G. Pierson

Summary The correspondence between Vissering (1818–1888), professor of economics at Leiden University, and the better known Pierson (1839–1909) which, in so far as it is available, is published here for the first time, contains many interesting comments on practical and scientific economic problems, current events, their own publications and those of others. One example is their endorsement of the government proposal to continue the Netherlands Bank's monopoly of the note issue when its charter expired in 1863 against the strong attacks of other economists who favoured free banking. A quarter of a century later they wrote about the renewal of the charter as insiders, Pierson then being President and Vissering one of the directors of the Bank.

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Briefwisseling tussen S. Vissering en N. G. Pierson

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Oud-ambassadeur.     

The recent failure of U.S. monetary policy

Summary The very slow growth of the broad money supply has been a primary source of U.S. economic weakness in 1990 through 1992. The velocity link between M2 and the subsequent level of nominal GDP has not declined. But changes in bank reserves brought about by open market operations have had much less effect onM2 than the Fed anticipated for two reasons: (1) reserve requirements now apply to only a small fraction of totalM2; and (2) the new bank capital requirements limit some banks ability to lend. The Federal Reserve failed to appreciate the importance of these conditions and misjudged the strength of the monetary policy stimulus that it was providing.Professor of Economics, Harvard University, and President of the National Bureau of Economic Research.Sixth Tinbergen Lecture delivered on October 2, 1992, in The Hague for the Royal Netherlands Economic Association.     

U.S. Monetary Policy: A View from Macro Theory

We use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to address two questions about U.S. monetary policy: 1) Can monetary policy elevate output when it is below potential? and 2) Is the zero lower bound a trap? The model’s answer to the first question is yes it can, but the effect is only temporary and probably not welfare enhancing. The answer to the second question is more complicated because it depends on policy. It also depends on whether it is the inflation rate or the real interest rate that will adjust over the longer run if the policy rate is held near zero for an extended period. We use the Fisher equation to analyze possible outcomes for situations where the central bank has promised to keep the interest rate near zero for an extended period.     

What Lessons Should Japan Learn from the U.S. Deposit-Insurance Mess?

In any representative democracy, public officials are subject to incentive conflict. Japan can benefit from understanding and eliminating the particular conflicts in bureaucratic incentives that make U.S. regulators reluctant to acknowledge and resolve deposit-institution insolvencies in a timely fashion. Weaknesses in accountability for the delayed consequences of regulatory decisions tempt regulators to help inefficient and insolvent banks to resist exit at the expense of other parties. To improve incentives, the consequences of regulatory choices must be made transparent enough for outsiders to monitor them. This can be done by assigning responsibility for privately insurable risks to private coinsurers and defining more fully government responsibilities for monitoring and minimizing financial institutions′ exposure to catastrophic risk. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1993, 7(4), pp. 329–355. Department of Finance, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts 02167.     

Structural changes in U.S. agriculture: Implications for African American farmers

Structural changes in U.S. agriculture, influenced by technological and institutional forces, have altered the economic and social characteristics of rural America, especially that segment of rural America populated by farmers and their families. Changes in the structure of agriculture have greater implications for small scale farmers, many of whom are African American, in that strategic options for their farm-firms are constrained to: increasing their farm size, exiting farming, and obtaining off-farm employment to survive. This article presents a rationale for public support of limited resource farmers, identifies structural trends in U.S. agriculture and their impacts on African American farmers, discusses economic problems unique to these farmers, and recommends needs for specific public policies and development programs.     

美国养老金的税收政策及启示

美国养老金成功发展的重要基础之一就是政府税收政策的支撑,而目前制约我国养老金发展的重要原因恰恰是税收制度的不健全。因此,文章通过对美国养老金的税收政策的基本特点、经验进行归纳总结,探讨我国如何为养老金的发展提供更好的税收政策的保障。