Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing.     

关于我国文化贸易逆差的思考

当前,中国在图书、电影和电视剧等方面的文化贸易逆差日益严重。和其他贸易国家相比,中国文化的国际影响力较弱,文化产业的规模化小,市场化和国际化程度较弱。本文分析了中国文化贸易逆差产生的原因,认为主要可以归结为文化管理政治化、收入分配不均衡和文化企业发展潜力不足等3个方面,并提出了培育文化市场、改革收入分配和加大政府扶持的应对措施。     

市场化与城乡收入差距：基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

在我国经济转型过程中,城乡居民收入差距呈现逐渐扩大的趋势。文章选取2001--2005年我国31个省市区的面板数据,通过实证分析发现,市场化程度越高的地区,城乡收入差距总水平也越低,但市场化程度的提高会导致城乡居民收入差距进一步拉大。因此,要缩小城乡收入差距,一方面要进一步推进市场化、城市化的进程,促进城乡经济的协调发展,另一方面要加大政府对农村的投入,构建起收入公平分配的各种制度安排。     

Distribution policy under trade liberalisation in Zimbabwe: a CGE analysis

A computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate theeconomy-wide and income distribution effects of transfer policiesto the poor. The model consists of seven income distributiongroups - communal farmers, resettlement farmers, unskilled workers,agricultural wage workers, skilled workers, industrial capitalistsand agricultural profit earners. The first four groups are treatedas a low income group and the last three as a high income group.Experiments to increase each of the low income groups' incomesby 5% using different sources of finance are simulated usingthe model. These are: an increase in government expenditurewithout budget balancing measures; an increase in governmenttransfers offset by a decrease in government spending elsewhere;and an increase in direct or indirect taxes. The results ofsuch experiments indicate that a policy of increasing directtaxes and increasing the government deficit in order to supportthe transfers are favourable in terms of increased incomes inthe short run. A policy of increasing indirect taxes and transferringthe revenue raised to the poor ranks last in terms of reducingincome inequalities. Finally, targeted transfers are generallybetter than universal transfers in terms of their benefits tolow income groups and in reducing income inequalities betweenthe low income and the high income groups.     

长短期视角下的收入分配公平:理论创新与政策建议——基于政治经济学的考察

收入分配本质上是生产条件分配,而生产条件分配必须考虑到劳动力价值以及非劳动要素价值问题。本文基于马克思主义政治经济学,分析了收入分配不公的形成机制,提出分配不公关键在于劳动力与要素所有者权力不公和劳动力价值形成权利不公两方面,并分别从短期和长期视角进一步论述政府的相机选择——短期内收入分配改革需要着力于再分配政策以改善代内公平,而长期来看应按照渐进式路径推进制度改革,根本上改善收入初次分配不公格局。     

渐进式延迟退休年龄政策的接受意愿影响因素研究?——以天津市为例

渐进式延迟退休年龄政策是应对人口老龄化、人口红利消退、劳动力成本上涨、养老金亏空等问题的重要决策之一。基于天津市351位居民的问卷调查数据,通过列联表和Logistic模型分析了影响渐进式延迟退休年龄政策意愿的因素。结果发现：年龄越大、受教育程度越高、身体越健康、收入越高的居民更易于接受渐进式延迟退休年龄政策;身处管理岗的居民要比非管理岗的居民更易于接受该政策;与民营、私营企业职员相比,政府机关、事业单位、国企、外企单位的职员更易于接受该政策。     

经济发展、资源配置与教育公平——来自中国省级面板数据的实证研究

文章利用1997-2011年30个省级行政区的面板数据,估计了地区收入水平、经济总量、教育存量以及政府教育投入对该地区教育获得分布的影响。研究发现,在控制了时间趋势和难以观测的地区特征的影响后,人均收入的增加会扩大教育差距,而经济总量的增长以及地方政府教育经费支出的增加都有利于降低教育不平等。此外,文章还发现,教育存量与教育不平等之间存在U型关系,即当平均受教育水平低于10年时,教育差距会随着平均受教育水平的提高而减少,但超过这一临界水平后,教育差距就会随着教育水平的提高而扩大。研究结果为政府制定提高教育公平的政策提供了经验依据。     

WAGNER'S LAW: AN ECONOMETRIC TEST FOR SOUTH AFRICA, 1960‐2006

The main objective for this paper is to test Wagner's law by analysing the causal relationships between real government expenditure and real income for South Africa for the period 1960‐2006. The paper tests the long‐run relationship between the two variables using the autoregressive distributive lag approach to cointegration suggested by Pesaran et al. We use the Granger non‐causality test procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto, which uses a vector autoregression model to test for the causal link between the two. Evidence of cointegration is sufficient to establish a long‐run relationship between government expenditure and income. However, support for Wagner's law would require unidirectional causality from income to government expenditure. Therefore, cointegration should be seen as a necessary condition for Wagner's law, but not sufficient. This research does find a long‐run relationship between real per capita government expenditure and real per capita income. Results for the short‐run causality find bidirectional causality. On the basis of empirical results in this paper, one may tentatively conclude that Wagner's law finds no support in South Africa.     

The growth,poverty and inequality nexus in South Africa: Cointegration and causality analysis

This study empirically established the long-run relationship and causality effects that exist between growth, poverty and inequality. The analysis was carried out on a panel of nine South African provinces from 1995 to 2012. To capture poverty and inequality in a broader context, two measures of poverty (income and non-income) and three measures of inequality (income, education and land) were adopted for the study. The results confirm that there is a long-run relationship between growth, poverty and inequality. Notable results from the causality tests suggest that growth does not promote equal distribution of income in society but as income distribution begins to equalise, economic growth rises. This is regarded as growth–inequality disconnect. The unidirectional causality, which runs from income poverty to income inequality, suggests that a rising level of income poverty will lead to falling income inequality in the society; likewise, income inequality increases as non-income poverty declines.     

An Examination of the Government Spending and Economic Growth Nexus for Malaysia Using the Leveraged Bootstrap Simulation Approach

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to re-examine the government spending-growth nexus for Malaysia from the perspective of disaggregated government spending. The yearly data from 1960 to 2007 is used in this study. This study applied the bounds testing for co-integration and the leveraged bootstrap simulation approaches to examine the relationship between three different categories of government spending and national income in Malaysia. It is found that government spending on education and defence are co-integrated with national income. Nevertheless, there is no evidence of co-integrating relation between government spending on health and national income. The MWALD causality test shows strong evidence of unidirectional causal relationship running from national income to the three major government spending in Malaysia. However, bilateral causality evident exists only between government spending on health and national income.     

人民币实际有效汇率REER和美中贸易逆差的关系——基于1996—2005年季度数据的实证分析

文章利用中国1996- 2005年的季度数据,对中美双边贸易收支与人民币实际有效汇率之间的关系采用协整技术进行了实证研究,结果表明:REER与中美贸易收支之间不存在因果关系,短期内美国国内的收入水平和中国国内的收入水平与中美贸易收支之间存在因果关系,且前者对贸易收支的影响更大,所以,变更人民币汇率并不是改善美中贸易逆差的有效工具.     

运用市场原则，解决收入分配不公

要明确收入分配的概念。在市场经济中,初次收入分配被称为要素收入分配。要搞清楚收入分配中的效率与公平的关系。经济学意义上的效率是从生产过程中产生的,收入分配过程并不产生效率。在这个含义中,生产过程应该注重效率,而收入分配应该注重公平。效率与公平是相互促进的。只有企业所有者、经营者、劳动者以及其他与企业利益相关的参与者之间的和谐,才能够保证生产和交易的顺利进行。在这个意义上,公平是能够促进效率的。中国的经济体制改革把国家计划指令下的资源配置方式改为由市场主导,财产占有制度也随着发生变化。收入分配不是孤立的,而要取决于财产分配。如果让一些人不劳而获就获得财产权,收入分配的结果肯定是不公平的。在中国,财产分配不公平的主要原因是国企产权交易、土地使用权转让和资本市场的运作违反市场公平交易原则,造成暴富者不劳而获。我们不但反对鼓吹贫富差距合理论的观点,也反对以贫富差距拉大为借口否定中国的经济体制改革。贫富差距拉大是没有落实市场交易原则造成的;运用市场机制的公平交易原则,不但能够纠正收入分配不平等,也能够纠正财产分配不平等。要把经济体制改革进行到底,必须真正落实市场交易原则。     

Government spending and the distribution of economic growth

In the United States, total government spending, and especially government social spending, has increased greatly over the last 50 years. What effect this has had on economic growth is a subject of intense debate among politicians, policymakers, and economists. However, there has been less attention paid to the distributional effects of government spending even though economic inequality has grown greatly over the last generation and much social spending is at least indirectly intended to reduce inequality. The effects of government social spending in the United States on growth in family income at deciles of the income distribution were estimated. The results suggested that social spending but not non‐social spending was likely to increase growth in family income per capita measured over 10‐year intervals. The largest effects of social spending were for deciles below the median income. At no point in the distribution does social spending have a negative effect.     

Deficit Hysteria Arthur Benavie praeger, 1998, 149 pp.

Arthur Benavie's purpose inDeficit Hysteria [1998] is to argue how the U.S. aversion to deficits in the federal government's budget has been misguided. Chapter 2 ranges far and wide but basically consists of the argument that, left to itself, the private macroeconomy may fail to generate sufficient aggregate demand to provide full employment, and at such times, increased federal government spending can effectively boost demand and employment. Deficit hysteria should not prevent the use of this policy option. The purpose of Chapter 3 is to counter the arguments of deficit hawks that cutting the deficit will raise productivity. Much shorter subsequent chapters deal with issues of income distribution, Social Security, and the negative implications of the 1991 Maastricht Treaty provisions for Western European economies.     

The redistributive role of government social security transfers on inequality in China

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the redistributive role of government social security transfers on inequality in China. We attempt to answer two questions. First, does inequality of after-transfer income narrow, compared to that of before-transfer income? Second, given the scale and distribution of existing government social security transfers, will a small percentage increase in the transfers narrow or widen the inequality of total income? By employing the methodologies of the Musgrave-Thin (MT) index and decomposition of the Gini coefficient of total income by its sources, we find a positive answer to the first question and a negative answer to the second question. Government social security transfers have a positive role on inequality in the sense that the Gini coefficient of after-transfer income is smaller than that of before-transfer income. However, government social security transfers have a negative role on inequality, as current inequality will go up if there is a universal increase in government social security transfers for all recipients. Of all the components of government social security transfers, formal sector pensions are most unequalizing, whereas dibao and rural pension benefits have equalizing effects on the income distribution in China.     

对外开放与我国的收入不平等——基于面板数据的实证研究

本文采用我国1991~2004年的省际面板数据,就收入不平等与对外开放之间的关系进行了实证检验,发现进出口的增加与外商直接投资的大量进入均导致了我国收入不平等程度的提高。以往的研究并没有将进口和出口的影响区分开来,本文分别分析了进口和出口对各地区收入不平等的影响,发现进口能够显著提高各地区的收入不平等程度,而出口能够在一定程度上减少收入不平等。文章最后就对外开放对我国收入不平等产生影响的可能途径进行了探讨,并提出了相关建议。     

THE ASEAN–CHINA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT: POLITICAL ECONOMY IN INDONESIA

The ASEAN–China Free Trade Agreement has been the most consequential trade agreement for ASEAN in the past decade. In this article, I use partial equilibrium modelling to estimate the direct impacts of the agreement on Indonesia and China, and from these estimates draw political economy implications for Indonesia. Although the agreement has contributed to a modest trade surplus for Indonesia overall, it has led to a larger bilateral deficit with China. In addition, the shifts to surplus for Indonesia have mostly been in resource-based sectors, while the shifts to deficit have occurred in many manufacturing sectors that the government would like to see grow. I argue that pushback against the agreement has contributed to a resurgence of non-tariff trade barriers in the country, although other political economy forces also have been at work. The agreement ultimately provides a cautionary tale: cutting regional import tariffs can lead to pressures for more complex and less transparent trade policies.     

典型相关分析在居民收入与支出间的应用

扩大内需和提高居民收入是政府宏观调控的目标,本文运用典型相关分析原理,构建了居民收入与支出间的关系及其影响因素,找出了影响居民收入与支出的主要因素,并将该模型应用于2009年农村居民收入与支出间关系的研究,证明劳动者报酬收入对食品和衣着支出有着显著影响。     

以社会管理创新推进收入分配改革

货币收入与更重要的非货币收入构成的“社会收入”具有社会性本质特征.市场竞争是收入差距产生的原因,不能成为缩小这个差距的动因.实现共同富裕作为改革目标,不能指望资本让步也不能完全依赖政府,追求公平分配的社会公民是根本动力.收入的社会性、目标和力量的社会性,是收入分配改革依靠社会管理创新的接入口.优化抗衡物质资本的社会资本,构建运用社会资本的公民社会,推进公权力制定改变收入分配格局的公共政策,是社会管理创新的功能.源自社会底层的诱致性收入分配改革的制度变迁,依赖于社会管理创新.其实,改革就是创新.     

调整消费和分配政策推动城乡一体化

城乡经济的发展取决于许多因素,由于城乡经济的巨大差距,造成城乡居民收入分配的差异,进而影响了居民消费行为。文章从影响城乡经济发展的城乡居民收入分配差异和收入差距扩大对居民消费水平和行为影响的视角,进行深入的分析,从而提出政府应通过加大反贫困的再分配力度、加快农村劳动力转移、增加社会福利费用等消费和收入分配政策的调整,推动城乡一体化的建设和发展。