浅析国际银行业资本规则对我国中小银行的影响

国际银行业资本规则提出了对世界银行业的监管准则，是衡量商业银行风险管理水平的重要尺度。中国中小商业银行在风险管理方面差距很大。中国银行业监管机关已经提出了要求。中小商业银行必须重视起来、行动起来，否则，一旦被监管机关和日益成熟的民众认为高风险银行，则倒闭的可能性将加大。     

“三位一体”监管视角下的我国商业银行监管绩效研究

在理论分析基础上,运用熵值法建立了评价我国商业银行监管的总体风险控制水平和综合效益的一个综合性指标体系;基于中国人民银行、银监会和地方政府金融办"三位一体"的监管体系特征,得出了查处银行违规金额与我国商业银行监管绩效不相关,资本充足率、存贷比、城市商业银行不良贷款率高于全国性股份制银行的百分点与我国商业银行监管绩效水平负相关,以及中国人民银行总资产变化量和银行本外币各项贷款余额与我国商业银行监管绩效水平正相关但影响力相当小等结论。为此,我国应当充分发挥资本充足率监管功效,加快监管信息系统建设和完善地方政府监管职能。     

范围经济与银行业经营模式设计

文章运用范围经济理论和博弈论的基本原理,对商业银行混业经营组织模式进行了分析,在对我国商业银行混业经营可行性条件进行剖析的基础上得出结论:目前我国银行业不具备全面混业经营的条件,建立银行控股公司是银行业向混业经营过渡的有效途径。     

现阶段我国商业银行分业经营必要性分析

分业经营和混业经营是银行经营的两种模式.银行业从产生至今,经历了商业银行业务和证券业务分离、融合、再分离和再融合的四个阶段.当今各国,根据各国金融发展实情和国际国内宏观金融环境,不同的选择了分业经营或混业经营的模式.本文将结合我国国情和两大经营模式的利弊,分析现阶段我国商业银行实行分业经营的必要性.     

国外商业银行监管研究及启示

我国加入世贸组织已跨入第四个年头,我国商业银行监管机构在引导我国商业银行完善风险管理机制,防范和化解金融风险,促进商业银行业增加国际竞争力的工作中,有必要继续借鉴国际上商业银行监管的先进经验,推动我国商业银行监管制度和监管机制的进一步创新.     

我国商业银行风险管理存在的问题及对策——基于新巴塞尔资本协议视角

中国加入WTO快八年了,中国银行全面跨入国际金融市场,要求我国的银行按照国际条约新巴塞尔资本协议的监管原则和标准化方法来进行经营管理.但中国银行业面临着风险识别困难,风险衡量有限,风险监管和控制难以有效实施等问题.这与新资本协议的要求相差较大,威胁着中国金融的安全和国际竞争力.本文就是基于中国银行业面临的严峻形势,按照新巴塞尔协议的风险管理理念,结合我国商业银行的现状,分析我国银行风险管理面临的问题,并据此提出相应的对策.     

我国金融业实行混业经营的途径

金融业混业经营是21世纪世界金融业发展的趋势。然而,我国现行有关金融法规规定,我国银行、证券、保险和信托实行分业经营与分类监管体制,商业银行在境内不得从事信托投资和股票业务,不得向非银行金融机构和企业投资。这一体制在过去对规范金融秩序、防范金融风险等发挥了积极作用,但是,面对国际金融业混业经营的发展趋势、国内经济金融情况变化和     

闲谈商业银行的经营管理模式

随着世界经济一体化趋势的不断加强,以及世界金融业的飞速发展,混业经营已经成为世界银行未来发展的主要模式。但是,就目前我国银行经营模式来看,仍然是以分业经营为主,但已经朝着混业经营的方向发展,同时国家也对银行的混业经营给予了一定的政策支持。所以在这一时代背景下,探讨我国银行的混业经营有着非常重大的现实意义。本文分析了我国银行实施混业经营的必然性,并就如何加强我国银行的混业经营,提出了几点建议。     

论我国银行业混业经营的途径

我国银行业分业经营模式并没有取得理想的效益,业务范围窄,业务风险更加集中和扩大。随着利率市场化步伐的加快,商业银行将完全置于市场化竞争,如果我国商业银行还只能单一地依赖利率机制经营传统的存贷业务,那么会增大银行经营风险,本文从混业经营的角度探讨中国银行业混业经营的条件、途径等内容。     

次贷危机与国际银行业未来走向

近期,美国次贷危机进一步恶化,已演变为全面的全球金融危机,国际银行业损失惨重.随着芙国主要投资银行或倒闭或向银行控股公司转型,独立投行模式的脆弱性已被证明,混业经营的全能型银行已重夺金融业发展的主导地位,国际银行业将呈现更为多元化的格局,在重归稳健经营的同时,集中和垄断的趋势将加强.我国银行业的国际生存环境将因而发生深刻的变化.对此,我国银行业应积极应对这些变化,力争在国际竞争中实现可持续发展.     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.