Tax policy,regulated interest rates,and saving

The paper evaluates tax policy options designed to reduce distortions to savings behavior that occur when administered interest rates are set beneath market equilibrium levels. While the removal of controls on interest rates might be the best option, political, legal or institutional circumstances might well preclude this solution. It suggests that consumption (or sales) taxes can be designed so that, in the short term, the rate of return to saving can be changed to approximate the market-determined interest rate. The main advantage of the measure is that it can provide (a) time to develop appropriate legal and institutional structures for financial deregulation, and (b) an additional policy instrument that allows the burden of adjustment, in a stabilization policy setting, to be distributed over more than one instrument.     

Saving,investment, growth and the cost of financial repression

This paper presents a quantitative estimate of the cost of financial repression in developing countries. Here, financial repression is interpreted as the technique of holding institutional interest rates (particularly deposit rates of interest) below their market equilibrium levels. For a sample of developing countries, saving is found to be affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest, as is real money demand, where money is defined broadly to include savings and time deposits. Under disequilibrium interest rate conditions, higher saving which raises real money demand increases pari passu the real supply of credit. Credit availability is an important determinant not only of new investment but also of capacity utilization of the entire capital stock. Hence, the growth rate is itself affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest through two channels – first, the volume of saving and investment and, second, capacity utilization of the entire capital stock, i.e. the measured incremental capital/output ratio. Estimates of saving and growth functions lead to the conclusion that the cost of financial repression appears to be around half a percetage point in economic growth foregone for every one percentage point by which the real deposit rate of interest is set below its market equilibrium rate.     

Keynes' monetary theory and bank reserves in Britain

Conclusions The key institutional peculiarity of Britain that caused the economics of Keynes is that bank reserves on all types of deposits were traditionally the same. This meant that decisions of savers and speculators to increase holdings of Savings-deposits (which are the alternative to securities) did not increase bank lending ability. The key mechanism of flexible interest rates was disabled, and arbitrage between different types of investments caused the fixing of the bank rate and the deposit rate to be transmitted to all short-term rates, and with inelastic expectations, to long rates. Higher interest rates increase the quantity of the medium of exchange in circulation. The quantity of the medium of exchange is endogenous in Keynes' system. Such interest-rate raising events as decreased savings, an increase in the marginal efficiency of capital, and deficit financing all increase the quantity of the medium of exchange in circulation. The monetarist distinction between deficit financing by money creation and debt is not meaningful in Britain where all deficit financing expands the money supply.     

Interest rates, risk, and imperfect markets: puzzles and policies

Traditional theory emphasizes the key role that monetary policycan play through the manipulation of interest rates. But thereare several puzzles that cannot be reconciled with standardmodels. These include: the apparent constancy in interest ratesover extended periods, and changes at other times which appearunrelated to changes in technology and demography; the cyclicalpattern of movements in real interest rates; the impact of nominalnot real interest-rate changes on real variables; and the cyclicalpattern of movements in interest-rate spreads. This paper reachesbeyond the standard competitive equilibrium, perfect information,model of credit markets towards imperfect information models,particularly those that focus on the determinants of bank behaviour.Of the standard models, the money demand model is most deficientin understanding these puzzles. The loanable funds theory anda generalized version of real productivity theory can be reconciledwith imperfect information, and markets and the consequent creditand equity rationing regimes help to explain the puzzles. Specifically,banks may be insensitive to changes in monetary stance owingto risk aversion. There are strong policy implications; it isargued, for instance, that in East Asia raising interest ratesexacerbated economic decline and, rather than contributing toexchange-rate stability, may have induced capital flight asdefault risk increased, lowering risk-adjusted expected returns.     

A simple model of an oil based global savings glut—the “China factor”and the OPEC cartel

The purpose of this contribution is to illustrate the interaction between oil prices and the global savings equilibrium which can invert the usual IS type relationship between growth and interest rates. Higher growth is usually associated with higher interest rates. But higher growth leads to also to higher oil prices and hence to higher savings by oil producers. This mechanism might explain the ‘conundrum’ noted by Bernanke that during the last expansion global interest rates remained relatively low despite robust growth. Moreover, it has interesting implications for how one views the huge US current account deficit and how the emergence of China’s savings surplus and oil supply shocks impact the global economy. We show that the new equilibrium is not only located at a lower interest rate but also at a lower growth rate than without the China effect. Finally, we argue that the lower real interest rates resulting from excess OPEC savings have facilitated the adjustment to the subprime crisis.     

The relationship between financial sector development and savings mobilisation in South Africa: An empirical study

This article examines the link between financial sector development and savings mobilisation in South Africa for the period 1980–2012. Taking the life-cycle hypothesis as our theoretical background and using Johansen co-integration that allows for hypothesis testing, the empirical results revealed a long-run relationship between savings, interest rates and financial sector development. We find an inverse relationship between the interest rate and savings, implying that South Africans are net borrowers because the income effect overwhelms the substitution effect. This in part explains the low level of savings in recent time. Important policy lessons for boosting the national savings rate are discussed.     

Disequilibrium analysis in developing economies: An overview

Disequilibrium is ubiquitous in most developing economies. In product markets, disequilibrium is pervasive in the tradeable goods sector due to foreign trade restrictions. In general, protection discriminates among domestic products, between domestic and foreign goods, and between domestic and foreign sales of any given commodity. Disequilibrium is also common in factor markets. Capital markets are frequently distorted by interest-rate ceilings and credit rationing. Labour markets are subjected to differential income tax rates, minimum wages and social security levies. Here, the techniques developed to analyse product and factor market disequilibrium and the empirical evidence measuring the economic costs of policy-imposed distortions are reviewed.     

金融摩擦下利率市场化改革对经济增长的影响研究

当前我国正面临经济增长放缓、流动性趋紧、利率居高不下的复杂局面,如何推进利率市场化改革以维护金融稳定、促进经济增长是重要的课题。文章构建包含金融摩擦因素的经济增长模型,并选用1980—2013年的数据进行实证检验。研究认为,利率变化对储蓄的影响是正向的,对投资的影响在2000年前后由正转负,与经济增长长期负相关,随着利率市场化改革的深入,利率的经济增长弹性呈增大趋势。未来利率市场化改革的重点,在短期应稳健审慎推进存款利率上限放开,在长期应优化金融市场结构畅通利率微观传导机制。     

High interest rates: a new conventional wisdom for development policy? some conclusions from Sri Lankan experience

The paper is concerned with the general proposition that ‘high’ interest rates paid to savers can contribute significantly to the long run development of LDCs, as well as to stabilization of their economies in the short run. By relating this general proposition to some simple theory about the behaviour of imperfect financial markets, as well as to specific institutional circumstances in Sri Lanka, it is demonstrated that there are important qualifications that have to be borne in mind. In particular, in the current institutional circumstances of Sri Lanka (which are closely replicated in other LDCs), the instinctive argument of the neoclassical economist that interest rates should reflect the scarcity price of capital is not a great deal of help to policy-makers.     

Dual-track interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy in China

China has a dual-track interest-rate system: bank deposit and lending rates are regulated while money and bond rates are market-determined. The central bank also imposes an indicative target, which may not be binding at all times, for total credit in the banking system. We develop and calibrate a theoretical model to illustrate the conduct of monetary policy within the framework of dual-track interest rates and a juxtaposition of price- and quantity-based policy instruments. We show the transmission of monetary policy instruments to market interest rates, which, together with the indicative credit target in the banking system, ultimately are the means by which monetary policy affects the real economy. The model shows that market interest rates are most sensitive to changes in the benchmark deposit interest rates, significantly responsive to changes in the reserve requirements, but not particularly reactive to open market operations. These theoretical results are verified and supported by both linear and GARCH models using daily money and bond market data. Overall, the findings of this study help us to understand why the central bank conducts monetary policy in China the way it does, using a combination of price and quantitative instruments with differing degrees of potency in terms of their influence on the cost of credit.     

Deposit market deregulation,implicit deposit rates,and monetary policy

Conclusion Previous analyses of the economic effects of deposit market deregulation generally have treated the gradual elimination of deposit rate ceilings and the effective removal of barriers to bank competition for deposits as separate issues. The key implication of the analysis utilized in this paper is that there are important interactions between these two forms of deposit market deregulation and their ultimate effects on market behavior and outcomes. One aspect of this interaction concerns the payment of implicit interest on deposit balances. Although implicit interest payments usually are viewed as a response to the imposition of ceilings on explicit deposit rates, the amount of implicit interest paid by banks in fact depends crucially upon the amount of monopoly power available to banks as a result of entry restrictions. Competition in deposit markets drives the implicit interest rate to 0 even if the explicit deposit rate is regulated, and the existence of imperfect competition in deposit markets makes the payment of positive implicit deposit interest a theoretical possibility even if the explicit deposit rate ceiling is removed.At a macroeconomic level, increased bank competition enhances the monetary and interest rate impacts of gradual relaxations of a binding deposit rate ceiling. If a ceiling on the explicit deposit rate is present, increased bank rivalry for deposits resulting from deregulation reduces monetary control whether the Fed targets a market interest rate or a reserve aggregate. When there is no ceiling on the explicit deposit rate, increased bank competition has ambiguous implications for monetary policy.The present trend in regulatory policy is pushing the U.S. financial system toward an environment in which explicit deposit rates are flexible, market determined variables and interbank rivalry for deposit funds is much more competitive. The thoretical analysis of this paper indicates that the likely results of these simultaneous developments are the demise of implicit deposit interest (marginal cost pricing of transactions services) and potential complications for the c onduct of monetary policy under either a reserve-oriented operating procedure or a procedure in which the Fed targets a market interest rate. However, the directions and magnitudes of the net impacts of those forms of deregulation ultimately are empirical issues that cannot be fully resolved.via a theoretical analysis.An earlier version of this paper was circulated by the Federal Home Loan Bank Board's Office of Policy and Economic Research as Invited Research Working Paper No. 59. The author is grateful for comments received from Donald Bisenius, Michael Bradley, Richard Brown, George Kanatas, Kenneth Kopecky, Byungkyu Lee, Randall Merris, Douglas Mitchell, Steve Peterson, Richard Startz, Richard Sweeney, Bill Witte, and participants in the Indiana University Money and Banking Seminar. Views expressed in this paper do not necessarily correspond to those of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Any errors are the author's alone.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Stochastic Behaviour of Short-Term Interest Rates in Singapore

This paper examines the stochastic behaviour of short-term interest rates in Singapore. We consider the following models of interest-rate structure: the lognormal model, the stable Paretian model and the mean-reversion model. Data on the three-month interbank rates are analysed. The mean-reversion model with conditional heteroscedasticity appears to fit the data adequately.     

Interest Rate Liberalization and Economic Growth in Zambia: A Dynamic Linkage

Abstract: This paper examines the dynamic impact of interest rate reforms on economic growth in Zambia—using two models in a stepwise fashion. In the first model, the efficacy of interest rate liberalization is examined by regressing the interest rate on the level of financial deepening. In the second model, the causal relationship between financial depth and economic growth is examined by incorporating savings as an intermittent variable in the bivariate setting, thereby creating a simple trivariate model. Using the cointegration‐based error correction model, the study finds strong support for the positive impact of interest rate liberalization on financial deepening. In addition, the study finds that financial deepening, which results from interest rate liberalization, Granger causes economic growth. The results apply irrespective of whether the causality is estimated in the short run or in the long run. Other results show that: (1) lagged financial depth leads to further financial deepening; (2) savings and economic growth Granger cause each other; and (3) financial development Granger causes savings in the long run.     

Kasgeld en kasbelegging

Summary A restrictive monetary policy in the Netherlands is virtually a policy to adapt the pace of domestic inflation to the pace of inflation abroad. This aim is pursued by limiting the growth of transactions balances in case of a balance of payments deficit. Although in such circumstances the government uses to take recourse to inflationary financing, credit rationing and the rise of interest rates cause investment expenditures to slow down.Transactions balances are, contrary to what Keynes assumed, not completely held in the form of money. Slow components are invested in short term claims, mainly time and savings deposits. In the recent period of credit restriction in the Netherlands short term lending between enterprises has also grown considerably.The present tightness of liquidity in the Netherlands caused the banks to extend the assortment of various kinds of deposits that can be held by their customers. Competition between all financial intermediaries sharpened considerably. The commercial banks were succesful in penetrating the market for savings deposits but they are lagging behind the giro-services and the circulation bank as far as the increase of their demand deposits is concerned.It is not correct, as Albert Hahn did, to consider commercial banks as pure money creating institutions. The amount of their deposits of various nature depends upon how households and firms choose to distribute their financial assets and to what extent the banks, in competition with the other financial intermediaries, can satisfy their wishes.Openbare les, gehouden bij het aanvaarden van het ambt van lector aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam op dinsdag 19 december 1967.     

Models of financially repressed developing economies

The past decade has witnessed an explosion of research on financial sector models of financially repressed developing economies. For the most part, financial repression is interpreted to be the technique of holding interest rates (particularly deposit rates of interest) below their free market equilibrium levels. The recent spate of activity in this field was produced by the simultaneous publication in 1973 of books by McKinnon and Shaw. Both authors demonstrate how economic theory can be applied to the analysis of the effects of financial conditions on investment and the real rate of economic growth. Since 1973, models of financially repressed developing economies have been formalized mathematically, extended to open economies in order to analyse exchange rate policies, and tested empirically. This paper presents a critical survey of the major contributions to the literature in this field since 1973.     

Wealth effects, the Taylor rule and the liquidity trap

This paper analyzes the dynamic properties of the Taylor rule with the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate in an optimizing monetary model with overlapping generations à la Yaari–Blanchard–Weil. The main result is that the presence of wealth effects is not sufficient to rule out the possibility of infinite equilibrium paths with decelerating inflation. In particular, in the presence of wealth effects, the occurrence of liquidity traps is not avoided when the central bank implements a Taylor-type interest-rate feedback rule.     

Learning the fiscal theory of the price level: Some consequences of debt-management policy

This paper examines the consequences of the scale and composition of the public debt in policy regimes in which monetary policy is ‘passive’ and fiscal policy ‘active’. This configuration of policy is argued to be of both historical and contemporary interest, in economies such as the US and Japan. It is shown that higher average levels and moderate average maturities of debt can induce macroeconomic instability for a range of policies specified as simple rules. However, interest-rate pegs combined with active fiscal policies almost always ensure macroeconomic stability. This suggests that in periods where the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is a relevant constraint on policy design, a switch in fiscal regime is desirable.     

Knowing when to splurge: Precautionary saving and Chinese-Canadians

Why do household saving rates differ so much across countries? This micro-level question has global implications: countries that systematically “over-save” export capital by running current account surpluses. In recipient countries, interest rates are therefore too low and financial stability is put at risk. Existing theories argue that saving is precautionary; however tests of these theories are limited to cross-country comparisons and the results are mixed. We report the findings of an original survey experiment. Using a simulated financial saving task implemented online, we compare the saving preferences of a large and diverse sample of Chinese-Canadians with other Canadians. This comparison is instructive given that Chinese-Canadians migrated from, or descend from those who migrated from, a high-saving environment to a low-saving, high-debt environment. We also compare behavior in the presence and absence of a simulated “welfare state”, which we represent in the form of mandatory insurance. Our respondents exhibit behavior in the saving task that corresponds to standard economic assumptions about lifecycle savings and risk-aversion. We find strong evidence that precautionary saving is reduced when a mandatory insurance is present, but no sign that Chinese cultural influences, represented in either linguistic or ethnic terms, have any effect on saving behavior. Overall, the results suggest that Chinese “over-saving” is likely to be addressed when more generous welfare state policies are put in place.     

Hot Money Flows,Commodity Price Cycles and Financial Repression in the USA and China： The Consequences of Near-zero US Interest Rates

Under near-zero US interest rates, the international dollar standard malfunctions. Emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates are swamped with hot money inflows. Emerging market central banks intervene to prevent their currencies from rising precipitately. They lose monetary control and domestic prices begin inflating. Primary commodity prices rise worldwide unless interrupted by an international banking crisis＇. This cyclical inflation on the dollar＇s periphery only registers in the US core eonsumer price index with a long lag. The zero interest rate policy also fails to stimulate the US economy as domestic finaneial intermediation by banks and money market mutual funds is repressed. Because China is forced to keep its interest rates below market-clearing levels, it also suffers from finaneial repression, although in a form differing from that in the USA.     

Lessons for Africa from Indonesia's Experience in Smallscale Entrepreneurial Finance

Abstract: Indonesia has developed some very successful credit schemes for both men and women smallscale entrepreneurs and farmers in rural and urban areas; one is a state-owned commercial bank which reaches out into the poorer areas; one is owned by local governments, but supervised by the state-owned commercial bank; and one is owned and operated by the provincial government. Can the factors which led to their success be transferrable to the African setting ? The authors argue that they can, but that the high population density, the vibrant economy and the relative stability of the price level are important positive factors in Indonesia not found in sub-Saharan Africa. Nevertheless, the paying of a market rate of interest on savings and encouragement of savings, the integration of the credit scheme into the commercial banking system, an interest rate on loans which covers the spread between savings borrowing and costs plus administrative costs, high levels of repayment, untargeted credit, good management, financial viability of each branch unit, and convenience in location are transferrable and should be part of African institutions leading to the smallscale sector.