Climate Change,Uncertainty, and Adaptation: The Case of Irrigated Agriculture in the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia

Climate change is likely to have substantial effects on irrigated agriculture. Extreme climate events, such as droughts, are likely to become more common. These patterns are evident in median projections of climate change for the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia. Understanding climate change effects on returns from irrigation involves explicit representation of spatial changes in natural stocks (i.e., water supply) and their temporal variability (i.e., frequency of drought states of nature) and the active management responses to capital stocks represented by mitigation and alternative adaptation strategies by state of nature. A change in the frequency of drought will induce a change in the allocation of land and water between productive activities. In this paper, a simulation model of state-contingent production is used to analyze the effects of climate change adaptation and mitigation. In the absence of mitigation, climate change will have severe adverse effects on irrigated agriculture in the Basin. However, a combination of climate mitigation and adaptation through changes in land and water use will allow the maintenance of agricultural water use and environmental flows. Le changement climatique risque d’avoir des répercussions considérables sur l’agriculture irriguée. Les phénomènes climatiques extrêmes, tels que les sécheresses, risquent de devenir plus fréquents. Ces phénomènes sont mis en évidence dans les projections médianes du changement climatique établies pour le bassin de Murray–Darling, en Australie. Pour comprendre les répercussions du changement climatique sur le rendement des cultures irriguées, il faut disposer d’une représentation explicite des changements spatiaux qui touchent les stocks naturels (c.-à-d. l’approvisionnement en eau) et de leur variabilité temporelle (c.-à-d. les états de la nature de la fréquence de la sécheresse) et assurer une gestion active des stocks de capital grâce à des stratégies d’atténuation et d’adaptation selon l’état de la nature. Une variation de la fréquence des sécheresses entraînera une modification de l’allocation des terres et de l’eau entre les activités de production. Dans le présent article, nous avons utilisé un modèle de simulation états-contingences pour analyser les répercussions des stratégies d’atténuation du changement climatique et d’adaptation à ce changement. En l’absence de stratégies d’atténuation, le changement climatique aura des répercussions défavorables sur l’agriculture irriguée dans le Bassin. Toutefois, des stratégies d’atténuation combinées à des stratégies d’adaptation comprenant des changements dans l’utilisation des terres et de l’eau permettront de maintenir l’utilisation de l’eau à des fins agricoles et les débits environnementaux.     

Water in the city: Green open spaces,land use planning and flood management – An Australian case study

With increasing worldwide recognition of the influence of urban development on the hydrological functions of water, there is growing pressure for urban planning to play a greater role in water resources management. Planning for green open spaces in particular can play an important role, as they support important ecosystem services, including those that assist in flood management. It has been argued that interconnected and strategically planned networks of green open spaces should be planned for early in land use planning and design processes, with consideration of water-related ecosystem values and landscape functions in concert with land development, growth management and physical infrastructure planning. Although there is growing recognition of the importance of green open space planning for water sensitive cities and supportive planning measures, there are few analyses of the actual inclusion of this recognition in plans and strategies, or the presence of related actions and planning mechanisms. This paper addresses this gap by comparatively analysing the approaches taken to regional green open space planning in three Australian capital city-regions. Findings indicate the acknowledgement of relationships between flood regulation and green open space planning and various associated planning mechanisms. However, there is limited explicit integration of flood management and green open spaces planning, and significant on-ground barriers to enabling this integration to occur given the legacy of past planning decisions and the lack of information to support implementation. The paper concludes with recommendations for further research to assist planning for green open spaces as an ally to ecosystem services relating to flood management.     

Organizing anarchy: The food security–biodiversity–climate crisis and the genesis of rural land use planning in the developing world

Shortfalls in global food production, coupled with the growing visibility of climate change's disruptive effects, have underlined for many observers the importance of devoting rural lands to their ‘optimal’ use, where they can make maximal contributions to the global imperatives of feeding the human population and maintaining vital environmental services. In this context observers have endorsed rural land use planning as a way to insure that, at least in theory, lands get devoted to their best uses. In practice, land use planning in the developing world has resembled ‘organized anarchy’. Small landholders with insecure land tenure, overseas investors seeking large land deals, NGOs representing indigenous peoples, government officials, and staff from international environmental NGOs and multilateral organizations have come together in strategic action fields to struggle over and sometimes negotiate land use plans for contested landscapes. These plans represent a strategic, spatially explicit response to the climate change–biodiversity–food security crisis.     

Assessment of land use and land cover changes and valuation of carbon stocks in the Sergipe semiarid region,Brazil: 1992–2030

The semiarid region in the state of Sergipe, Brazil, approximately 11,000 km², has experienced high deforestation rates in the last decades, which ultimately contribute to global climatic changes. The valuation of ecosystem services of CO₂ sequestration can support definition of environmental policies to decrease deforestation in that region. This study aimed to assess land use and land cover changes in the Sergipe semiarid region between 1992 and 2017 by applying remotely sensed data and technics; simulate the land use and land cover changes between 2017 and 2030 by applying a cellular automaton model, by assuming current land use trends (Business as Usual – BAU) as a reference scenario, and a more conservative scenario (Protected Forest – PF), in which was assumed an effective enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code established in 2012; simulate the carbon stocks by 2017 assuming the BAU and PF scenarios by 2030, and estimate the Carbon balance between the 2030 and 2017 scenarios; and estimate the economic valuation of carbon emission and sequestration by using the InVEST software. The results showed that agriculture (cropped lands) was main driver of the landscape changes in the study area, which increased 14% by 2017, a net increase of 1494.45 km². The results showed that the total Carbon emissions would reach 736,900 Mg CO₂-eq by assuming the BAU scenario, which would increase the cost of opportunity up to US$ 17.7 million and a social carbon cost varying between US$ 10.3 and US$ 30.2 million. The restoration of the permanent preservation areas could contribute to increase Carbon sequestration up to 481,900 Mg CO₂-eq by 2030, which is equivalent cost of US$ 11.6 million. The natural landscape in the Sergipe semiarid region was strongly affected by deforestation activities occurred between 1992 and 2017. It requires, therefore, effective actions to support and promote restoration of degraded areas. The forested areas within the Sergipe semiarid region were the most affected type of vegetation because of expansion of agricultural fields soil exposures (Exposed Land). Environmental assessments based on scenarios and economic valuations can provide crucial information to support policy and decision makers to improve strategies for environmental management and conservation.     

Water resources and land use planning systems in Portugal—Exploring better synergies through Ria de Aveiro

The paper discusses the relevance of a stronger articulation between land use and water resources systems to enhance the success of the Water Framework Directive. Using article 11 of the WFD, this paper assess (i) how the Spatial Planning and Urban Development Law as well as the Portuguese Water Law converge to promote better integration of water resources into spatial planning, (ii) how their prospects are developed at the regional basis, namely through the Regional Spatial Development Plan and River Basin Management Plan, and (iii) how these are prepared to inform other planning instruments at the local level. It shows through a spatial analysis of the regional land-use plan and the river basin plan as applied over the Ria de Aveiro estuary area, the conflicts and opportunities for stronger synergies. The paper concludes with a critical analysis of the integration of the spatial planning and water resources planning systems in Portugal, and reveals new insights and challenges for more productive synergies between these systems.     

Perception and use of landscape concepts in the procedure of Environmental Impact Assessment: Case study—Switzerland and Romania

The European Landscape Convention (ELC) defines landscape as “an area, as perceived by people, whose character is the result of the action and interaction of natural and/or human factors”. Because all aspects linked to landscape are evaluated during the Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) procedure, we assessed the Swiss and Romanian experts’ perception and EIA reports regarding the landscape concept. Therefore, we analysed Swiss and Romanian experts’ perception of landscape, we evaluated concepts and methods used in environmental impact reports to assess landscape characteristics and functions, and how the ELC's aim and objectives are reflected by the EIA reports.The Canonical Correspondence Analysis performed to evaluate the experts’ perception of landscape integration in the EIA procedure showed a significant relationship among pattern of answers and experts’ professional background. Moreover, there is a significant difference between Swiss and Romanian expert's perception. Longer experience in the field and a higher level of education indicates higher awareness of landscape characteristics and properties, which demonstrates that alongside with the initial training, there is a need for developing a coherent long-life learning systems having landscape analysis as a focus.The ELC is familiar to nearly 86% of the Romanian Environmental Impact Assessment actors and nearly 29% of the Swiss experts. By contrast, most of the Romanian EIA reports analysed do not employ many concepts of the ELC, while most of the Swiss environmental reports incorporate objectives of landscape protection consistent with the Convention.Our study relies on the comparative investigation of representative case studies of Environmental Impact Assessment reports for industry, local infrastructures, tourism facilities, and wind farm projects, as well on tracking how the European Landscape Convention is reflected by the EIA reports. We found that EIA reports from both countries evaluate the visual landscape, thus, achieving subjective assessment of landscape aesthetics without focusing on social and ecological sub-systems. Quantitative elements of landscape analysis are mostly absent and it is challenging to evaluate whether environmental assessments are consistent among European Landscape Convention countries.To overcome the abstract way of evaluation of project's impact on landscape through EIA procedure, an improved landscape analysis procedure is needed and we propose developing technical guidelines, under the European Landscape Convention umbrella, in order to enhance landscape management.     

Protester or non‐protester: a binary state? On the use (and non‐use) of latent class models to analyse protesting in economic valuation*

In the analysis of stated preferences studies, it is often assumed that protesting is a discretely measured item only occurring among those who are not willing to pay. However, various studies have recently shown that protest beliefs are as well held by respondents who state a positive willingness to pay (WTP). Using latent class (LC) models, we investigate the extent of heterogeneity with respect to protest beliefs among all respondents of two contingent valuation studies. The advantage of LC models is that classes of individuals are endogenously identified and no selection bias is introduced by ad hoc definitions of protesters. Further we investigate whether it is possible to identify a class of non‐protesters. Finding a group of pure non‐protesters could indicate how strongly stated WTP in the whole sample is affected by protest beliefs. For both samples, we find a class with strong protest beliefs but no pure non‐protest class. Overall, our results suggest that LC models might not be the first choice to determine unbiased WTP measures, but they provide valuable insights into the degree of protesting expressed by different groups and corresponding determinants of group membership.     

Changing land use in the countryside: Stakeholders’ perception of the ongoing rural planning processes in Flanders

Rural areas in densely populated regions face increasing competition for land. Consequently, land use planning processes must attempt to balance the goals of diverse stakeholders and the process of reaching consensus becomes more complicated. By investigating the perception of the actors involved in rural planning, this research contributes to the knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of such processes. We have focused on the case of rural planning processes in Flanders in which proponents of nature and agriculture are competing for land. Data are collected through open interviews with key actors such as farmers, representatives of nature preservation organisations, farmers’ unions, and employees of the relevant governmental policy areas. Data analysis according to the grounded theory approach resulted in six categories and 26 concepts that represent the stakeholders’ perception of difficulties in the Flemish rural planning approach. Three points where difficulties arise are (1) the link between envisioning, drawing up the plan and implementation, (2) the need for data, and (3) the role of sectors. We use three concepts from literature (procedural justice, distributive justice and value conflicts) to frame the difficulties observed. Based on this analysis, we discuss several ways to improve rural planning processes.     

Linking the ecosystem services approach to social preferences and needs in integrated coastal land use management – A planning approach

Coastal zones with their natural and societal sub-systems are exposed to rapid changes and pressures on resources. Scarcity of space and impacts of climate change are prominent drivers of land use and adaptation management today. Necessary modifications to present land use management strategies and schemes influence both the structures of coastal communities and the ecosystems involved. Approaches to identify the impacts and account for (i) the linkages between social preferences and needs and (ii) ecosystem services in coastal zones have been largely absent. The presented method focuses on improving the inclusion of ecosystem services in planning processes and clarifies the linkages with social impacts. In this study, fourteen stakeholders in decision-making on land use planning in the region of Krummhörn (northwestern Germany, southern North Sea coastal region) conducted a regional participative and informal process for local planning capable to adapt to climate driven changes. It is argued that scientific and practical implications of this integrated assessment focus on multi-functional options and contribute to more sustainable practices in future land use planning. The method operationalizes the ecosystem service approach and social impact analysis and demonstrates that social demands and provision of ecosystem services are inherently connected.     

The elephant in the scheme: Planning for and around car parking in Melbourne, 1929–2016

A relatively recent body of literature has looked critically at the role of car parking in urban areas, showing that a significant determinant of the extent of parking space is the planning system. Of particular importance are statutory minimum off-street parking requirements for new developments. If parking and parking policies are significant to urban outcomes, one question that follows is − how active a role (if any) has strategic urban planning had in car parking? In this paper we ask if, and in what ways, car parking has been a stated strategic planning interest over the course of nearly a century of planning for one city − Melbourne, Australia. Our approach has three parts: a content analysis of strategic planning documents over time; a corresponding analysis of statutory policies on the ground; and reflection on what this means for the relationships between strategy and policy.We find that extensive car parking, treated as a public good, was once specifically planned as a critical component of facilitating a car-based city. We show that car parking has receded as a strategic policy issue over time, but that statutory minimum parking requirements introduced in the 1950s continue to be entrenched. Even with more recent strategic plans seeking to curtail car use and increase urban densities, minimum parking policies originally introduced to achieve the opposite effects have remained largely intact. We argue that parking has a significant role in urban form but is, in our case study city, illustrative of gaps between strategic and statutory planning, and between planning practice and research. Whereas post-war planning instigated policy approaches to car parking as a means of planning for car use, strategic planning in Melbourne now plans around parking − the elephant in the scheme. The findings have implications for other intensifying cities with a history of minimum parking policies; as well as for cities now undergoing rapid motorisation.     

Land-use change in the ‘edgelands’: Policies and pressures in London's rural–urban fringe

Green Belt policies have helped to create chaotic landscapes at the rural–urban interfaces of the United Kingdom's largest cities. Their prime functions, to control urban sprawl and preserve an encircling green girdle to separate the urban from the open countryside, have created ‘edgelands’ that have been remarkably dynamic despite relatively strong controls on certain types of development. A detailed case study of one part of London's Metropolitan Green Belt, drawing upon analysis of planning registers, reveals long-term trends in land-use change linked to the development controls operated within the context of the Green Belt and the adjacent built-up area. This paper also outlines the history of the Green Belt policy in the United Kingdom (UK) and discusses recently proposed policy changes that have provoked ongoing debate about this form of control on urban sprawl and its consequences for the land use of Green Belts and the edgelands.     

Spatial–temporal changes in grain input–output and the driving mechanism in China since 1985

Based on Chinese county-level statistic data, this paper reveals spatial–temporal distribution and changing of grain production, by studying gravity centres of grain input–output regions in China from 1985 to 2009. According to the grain output, per-capita grain consumption, and population, the surplus grain of 2864 counties from 1985 to 2009 was calculated. And the counties with surplus grain value greater than zero and smaller than zero were respectively defined as grain input regions and grain output regions; they were respectively analysed by using the model of grain gravity centre. We found that there are four periods of spatial–temporal changing of gravity centres in grain input regions, and five periods in all output regions. According to the moving path of the gravity centres of input–output regions, 1990 was the turning point of completely entering into ‘grain supply from north to south period’. Spatial–temporal changing of grain-sown area and the arable land was the main driving mechanism for the shift in grain input–output gravity centres. The change of spatial pattern of grain production influenced sustainability of grain production from three impacts. And two policy suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainability of grain production.

HIGHLIGHTS

Use the method of gravity centres to research the spatial–temporal changing of surplus grain from 1985 to 2009 in China.

Analyse the spatial–temporal changing and the driving mechanism of gravity centres of grain input–output from 1985 to 2009 in China.

1990 was identified as the turning point of completely entering into ‘grain supply from north to south period’.

Summarize the impact of the changes of spatial pattern of grain production on the sustainability of grain production and put forward two proposals.     

Water–milk nexus in India: a path to a sustainable water future?

This paper examines the nexus between milk production and water use in India. The nexus is examined in the context of extended consumptive water use (CWU) of milk production beyond drinking water. It includes the real CWU (evapotranspiration (ETa) that occurs during the production of green fodder and feed grains) and the virtual CWU (ETa embedded in by-products for animal feed). The real CWU appears as large as that of sugarcane, and the real and virtual CWU combined is as large as that of rice. However, milk production generates more value than the outputs of rice and sugarcane combined. Sustainable water use and agricultural growth in major milk-producing areas require a drastic reduction in groundwater CWU, which, at present, exceeds natural recharge. It is suggested that diversifying to a mix of milk and high-value (but low water consuming) crops can reduce groundwater CWU while ensuring higher total output.     

Implementation of the forest expansion policy in the Netherlands in the period 1986–2007: Decline in success?

The current study explains why Dutch forest expansion policy is at risk of failure. To study the forest expansion implementation process we have chosen to further operationalize Matland's policy type implementation model to an extended and comprehensive typology of relevant implementation characteristics. In addition, a case study methodology with mixed-method design was used to collect and analyze the data. The Dutch forest expansion policy is currently an example of symbolic implementation. The symbolic implementation is a consequence of the absence of central guidance, the legislative complexity, the low policy stability, the lack of supporting conditions for policy innovation, the lack of regulatory responsiveness and the latent policy at state level and in many provinces. Nevertheless, the transferable development rights method of the province of Limburg is a promising innovation and forest expansion still happens, which is mainly the result of a good internal and external communication, an effective actor network of forest expansion advocates and the willingness to realize negotiated project aims that lead to a win–win situation for all actors involved. Nonetheless, it is expected that the forest expansion targets will be not reached, unless most of the above shortcomings are solved.     

Farmers’ land use decision-making in the context of changing land and conservation policies: A case study of Doi Mae Salong in Chiang Rai Province,Northern Thailand

In Thailand, land use planning and policy decision-making were—and to some extent still are—organized in a hierarchical and disjointed fashion. This is also true for the utilization of public lands, including forest reserves in the northern uplands that are often settled by ethnic minorities. There are, however, instances of change in land policies and regulations and in the way decisions and plans are made. Doi Mae Salong (DMS) in Northern Thailand, where there is a trend towards land use for conservation purposes, is a case in point. This paper aims to explore decision-making by farmers in DMS in the context of changing land regulations and policies from the 1950s to the present. The Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, together with a historical perspective and with narratives on land management through time, were applied by using in-depth interviews of key informants and group farmers’ discussions as tools. The time period under investigation was divided into three periods of change: The first period, before the year 1960, was an era of security concern. In contrast, the second period, from 1961 to 1996, was an era of emerging conservation priorities. Finally, the third period, from 1997 to the present, is an era of lessons learned from the conservation era. Land use decision outcomes reveal that the decision-making processes of farmers are influenced both by the hierarchical decisions of higher authorities and by horizontal linkages among multiple stakeholders. However, while farmers participate readily in forest conservation activities, they do not play an active role in the process of changing policies.     

Gender and inorganic nitrogen: what are the implications of moving towards a more balanced use of nitrogen fertilizer in the tropics?

For agriculture to play a role in climate change mitigation strategies to reduce emissions from inorganic nitrogen (N) fertilizer through a more balanced and efficient use are necessary. Such strategies should align with the overarching principle of sustainable intensification and will need to consider the economic, environmental and social trade-offs of reduced fertilizer-related emissions. However, the gender equity dimensions of such strategies are rarely considered. The case studies cited in this paper, from India, Lake Victoria in East Africa and more broadly from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), show that the negative externalities of imbalanced inorganic N use in high- and low-use scenarios impact more strongly on women and children. We examine, through a literature review of recent work in SSA, the relative jointness of intra-household bargaining processes in low N use scenarios to assess the degree to which they impact upon N use. We suggest that gender-equitable strategies for achieving more balanced use of N will increase the likelihood of attaining macro-level reductions in GHG emissions provided that they secure equity in intra-household decision-making and address food security. Gender-equitable N use efficiency strategies will help to integrate and assure gender and social equity co-benefits at local scales.     

Land use regulation and social regulation: an unexplored link. Some reflections on the origins and evolution of sprawl in the Veneto “città diffusa”

While the question of social and political regulation (in Polanyi’s sense) in areas characterized by industrial districts and systems of SMEs is well-known, alongside the effects of globalization in such situations, the role of land use regulation as a public policy has been underestimated. The sprawl that connotes these situations (and in particular our case-study, the Veneto region) has usually been intended as the product of a laissez-faire orientation. In our paper, we try instead to demonstrate that sprawl, in the golden age of development, has been intentionally pursued, through specific technical mechanisms and widely accepted policy discourses. The “planned sprawl” has been largely socially shared, and significantly contributed to, by a peculiar embeddedness of the public action in market and reciprocity mechanisms, to social integration and economic effectiveness, until the change of international division of labor, social and cultural transformations, and the rise of severe negative externalities as unintended consequence of the “planned sprawl”. Moreover, the paper discusses the lack of effectiveness of the recent regional reform of territorial planning in coping with the new social and economic requirements, compared to the variety of urban projects based on a governance style.