中国国防支出对经济贸易影响的实证研究

中国在一体化经济和军民融合的新时代背景下,研究国防支出对经济贸易的影响机制具有重要价值。通过对中国近三十年来国防支出对国内生产总值和对外进出口贸易的影响进行实证研究可以发现：中国的国防支出可以促进经济增长,而对外贸易能够促进国防支出增加且对外进口贸易对其影响增幅较大。同时,根据研究结论提出中国要稳步增加国防支出、优化出口贸易结构、加大产业科研投入、推动区域协调发展的政策建议。     

近20年我国国防支出与经济增长关系分析

以1997年到2017年间国防支出与GDP的数据为基础，对近20年来我国国防支出与经济增长的关系进行了探讨，并进一步地分析了在军民融合过程中经济建设与国防建设之间的发展关系。首先，通过描述性统计、相关性分析、回归分析等方法，初步探讨了国防支出与GDP之间的关系；然后基于VAR模型进行了相关的计算和分析验证；最后综合这些方法，对结果进行了较为系统全面的讨论。结果显示，近20年来，我国国防支出与经济增长基本呈正相关关系，经济增长与国防支出能够相互促进，呈现一种良性的关系。长期来看，不仅经济的增长有利于军费投入的提高，反过来国防支出也可以调节经济总量，促进现有资源的充分利用，从而促进经济增长。这从侧面反映出近年来我国国防建设与经济建设、安全与发展能够实现统筹兼顾、军民融合总体发展成效显著，建设军民一体化的国家战略协调能力正在不断提高。     

INTERGOVERNMENTAL TRANSFERS AND DECENTRALISATION IN INDONESIA

A fundamental restructuring of intergovernmental relations involving decentralisation and expanded autonomy for provincial and local governments is under way in Indonesia. This paper explores the intergovernmental financial system that preceded the new General Allocation Fund (DAU), with particular attention to the old Inpres development grants. Like Inpres, the DAU attempts to address national development objectives, and can be seen as a logical consequence of reform efforts in intergovernmental finance that began long before the demise of the New Order government in 1998. The use of earmarked Inpres grants enabled the central government to ensure that key sectors such as roads, public health and education received adequate attention throughout Indonesia's diverse regions. Local governments' experience with Inpres should help in implementation of the DAU, yet Law 25/1999which restructures fiscal relations between the various levels of governmentmay actually have increased local reliance on the central government.     

市场化国际技术转移服务平台的运营机制研究

当今世界的竞争已经聚焦于科技创新的竞争,科技创新活动日益活跃,技术转移活动成为科技创新活动的重要环节。针对技术转移如何建立营利机制的问题,在收集、整理和分析国内外众多技术转移服务平台的案例基础上,结合实地调研,通过研究国际技术转移路径以及当今典型特点,凝练出以营利为目标的国际技术转移服务平台运营的新特征,提出市场化运行机制的建议,进一步促进国际间技术转移活动的健康可持续发展。     

养老保险水平对农民工主观幸福感的影响

中国经济发展迈入新平台，更加注重经济发展的质量，增强全体人民的“幸福感与获得感”是高质量发展的重要体现。基于2019 年中国家庭金融调查数据（CHFS），本研究利用倾向得分匹配法，深入探讨了养老保险及其相关水平如何影响农民工的幸福感，并以消费支出为中介，进一步考察了具体的影响机制。研究发现，在我国大力推动普及养老保险的背景下，养老保险的幸福促进效应不明显，而养老保险的相对水平是影响农民工幸福感的重要因素，相对于参加低水平养老保险的农民工，参加高水平养老保险的农民工幸福感高出20.8%-23.8%。同时消费支出在参加高水平养老保险对幸福感的影响中发挥着中介作用，即参加高水平养老保险能够通过促进消费支出来提升农民工的幸福感。对此，研究认为政府要着眼于养老保障的公平性，妥善提升农民工养老保险的保障水平，有效促进农民工的消费支出，增强其幸福感。     

我国财政可持续发展的实证研究

通过深入剖析我国财政可持续发展面临困境的基础上,采用协整检验方法对2008-2021年我国财政可持续的状况进行实证研究。研究结果表明,我国财政不存在协整关系,从中长期来看财政可持续发展仍存在风险。基于此提出了稳定经济主体大力发展经济、合理优化并防范财政支出面临的风险、优化支出结构提高财政资金的使用效率、提高创新能力等建议,为我国财政协调发展提出参考意见,使财政更好地发挥国家治理的重要支柱作用。     

Productivités et externalités des dépenses publiques en zone UEMOA

Abstract: The purpose of the present study is to estimate the public expenditure sector's respective roles in the ‘productive’ and ‘non productive’ components of the economy of WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) member states. An econometric analysis aims to reveal the externalities and/or relative factorial marginal productivity effects on the long‐term economic growth rate. It appears that public capital expenditure positively affects relative factorial productivity but public consumption expenditure has no effect on economic growth. The study confirms the productive contribution of public infrastructures on GDP growth in the WAEMU area. Résumé: L'objet de la présente étude est d'estimer les rôles respectifs des différentes composantes “productive” et “non productive” des dépenses du secteur public dans l'économie des pays de l'UEMOA. Une analyse économétrique vise à capter les effets de productivité marginale factorielle relative et/ou d'externalités sur le taux de croissance économique en longue période. L'analyse montre que les dépenses en capital public ont un effet positif de productivité factorielle relative alors que les dépenses publiques de consommation ne laissent apparaître aucun effet sur la croissance. L'étude apporte une confirmation de la contribution productive des infrastructures publiques à la croissance du PIB dans l'espace UEMOA.     

收入差距、社会保障支出与农村居民幸福感

收入差距的日益恶化严重影响到了居民的幸福感,社会保障支出作为民生性支出,具有典型的福利性与公平性特征,其可能加剧或缓解收入差距对农村居民幸福感的影响。本文基于2010年中国社会综合调查数据（CGSS）,采用Ordered Probit模型,实证分析了收入差距、社会保障支出对农村居民幸福感的影响。研究发现,收入差距与农村居民幸福感呈倒“U”型关系,低水平的收入差距对农村居民幸福感有积极影响,而较高的收入差距则会降低农村居民幸福感,且这一效应对农村低收入者幸福感的影响更大;社会保障支出不仅对农村居民幸福感有显著的正向影响,而且缓解了收入差距过大对农村居民幸福感带来的不利冲击。在采用工具变量法矫正内生性后,结论依然稳健。因此,我国政府理应将收入差距控制在合理区间,同时加大社会保障支出,从而使农村居民更幸福感。     

老龄化背景下中国商业健康保险的社会保障作用研究

商业健康保险具有缓解社会保障支出的作用,对于社会保障具有积极影响。基于老龄化背景下针对中国商业健康保险的社会保障作用进行研究。研究结果发现当人均商业健康保险的保费收入增加时,全国社保基金中的人均医疗保险支出将可因此显著减少,这说明中国商业健康保险的发展有助于缓解社会保障支出,从而能够减轻政府财政支出的负担和压力,与当前政府所提倡的积极发展商业保险,从而推进"健康中国"的战略计划实行的政策相符。     

国外碳定价机制经验对中国实现双碳目标的启示

当前碳排放管理工作处于发展初期，碳定价机制运行效果尚不明显。通过分析全球碳定价机制运行情况，对比发现中国碳定价机制存在价格低、覆盖范围窄、配套政策不完善等问题。最后借鉴发达国家经验，从提高碳价、增加覆盖范围、完善配套措施等方面提出中国碳定价机制发展的政策建议。     

土地出让金支出结构合理化研究

为矫正土地出让金实际支出中的"重城轻农"倾向,国家相关文件原则性规定了土地出让金的五种支出方向,但并未给出各支出方向的具体比例。基于广州市土地出让金利益相关者对各支出方向相对重要性排序的495份调查问卷,采用相对熵组合赋权方法测算土地出让金各支出方向的具体比例。研究表明,土地出让金用于城市建设、支农、土地开发、征地拆迁补偿、其他支出的合理比例应分别为19.51%、21.35%、18.88%、19.15%、21.11%;其中支农支出比例最高,支农支出与征地拆迁补偿支出比例合计达40.50%,与土地出让金支出"重点向新农村建设倾斜"的政策契合。在土地出让金支出重点向新农村建设倾斜的大前提下,可制定土地出让金各支出方向比例的合理区间给地方政府预留一定的弹性操作空间;建立土地收益基金等措施维护上下届政府间的"代际公平"。要确保土地出让收益用于农民、农业、农村,还可参照目前土地复垦净收益分配方式,硬性规定土地被征收前的土地所有权人与土地使用权人占土地出让净收益的一定比例。     

结构失调与效应弱化——农业财政支出对农村经济发展的效应探析

农业财政支出是农村重要的公共资源,是农村公共产品的主要来源。通过对农业财政支出结构和功能进行分析发现:农业财政支出在农村经济发展过程中发挥的公共产品经济正外部性效应不显著,针对这种现象,本文提出了提升农业财政支出发挥公共产品正外部效应的几点建议,主要包括建立统筹城乡公共产品供给制度,优化农业财政支出结构,加大对农业科技、产业调整和剩余劳动力转移等,以优化公共资源配置,在城乡之间真正形成以工促农、以城带乡的长效机制。     

FISCAL ILLUSION AT THE LOCAL SPHERE: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE FLYPAPER EFFECT USING SOUTH AFRICAN MUNICIPAL DATA1

While South Africa operates a relatively decentralised governance and administrative structure, an important feature of the country's intergovernmental fiscal relations system is the gap that exists between the expenditure responsibilities of sub‐national authorities and their assigned revenue bases. The resulting vertical fiscal imbalance is mainly addressed via significant intergovernmental transfers to provinces and local governments. This factor presents strong a priori grounds for assuming that in the South African context, the heavy dependence of many local governments on intergovernmental transfers may generate fiscal illusion. Despite this, there have not been many empirical studies of fiscal illusion in South Africa's intergovernmental transfer system. This paper extends existing literature on fiscal illusion by using the fiscal year 2005/06 financial and expenditure data from 237 local government authorities in South Africa to evaluate the flypaper variant of the fiscal illusion hypothesis. Empirical results indicate that the marginal effects of municipal own‐source revenues on local expenditure exceed those of intergovernmental transfers. No statistical evidence in support of the flypaper hypothesis within the context of municipal expenditures in South Africa is found.     

Intrafirm resource allocation: The economics of transfer pricing and cost allocations in accounting*

Abstract. A theory of intrafirm allocation under information asymmetry based on Myerson's general theory of mechanisms is developed. From the general model, it is shown that every Myerson equilibrium resource allocation mechanism is a “cost plus” type of transfer pricing. Specializing the general model to allow risk-neutral agents, we derive the exact form of the compensation schemes in dominant strategy equilibrium transfer pricing mechanism. The general Myerson agency problem is transformed into a central planner's problem enabling us to bypass the first-order approach to the problem. The closed form solution shows that each of the agents' compensation schemes is composed of a profit-sharing component, a cost refund, taxes, and subsidies, making it a Groves-like scheme. Additional results show that if the principal is asymmetrically informed about one of the agents only, the agent may derive rent from private information under monotonic compensation schemes, and we provide additional conditions under which Hirshleifer's classical marginal cost pricing is in equilibrium. Résumé. Les auteurs élaborent une théorie d'affectation des ressources internes au sein de l'entreprise, en situation d'asymétrie de l'information, à partir de la théorie générale des mécanismes de Myerson. En se fondant sur le modèle général, les auteurs démontrent que chaque mécanisme d'affectation des ressources correspondant à l'équilibre de Myerson tient du prix de cession interne de type « prix coûtant majoré ». En spécialisant le modèle général de façon à permettre l'introduction de mandataires neutres à l'égard du risque, ils dérivent la forme exacte de régimes de rémunération correspondant au mécanisme de détermination du prix de cession en situation d'équilibre de la stratégie dominante. Le problème mandant-mandataire général de Myerson se transforme en problème de planificateur central, ce qui permet de court-circuiter le premier ordre d'analyse du problème. La solution de nature fermée révèle que tout régime de rémunération des mandataires est composé d'un élément de participation aux bénéfices, de remboursement de frais, de taxes et de subventions, ce qui l'apparente à celui de Groves. D'autres résultats indiquent que si le mandant obtient de l'information asymétrique de l'un des mandataires seulement, ce dernier peut tirer, dans le cadre de regimes de remuneration monotoniques, un loyer de l'information privilégiée qu'il communique. Les auteurs ajoutent des conditions supplémentaires selon lesquelles l'établissement du prix selon la méthode classique de Hirshleifer en fonction des coûts marginaux est en équilibre.     

北京农户对农村生态环境治理的认知差异研究

治理北京农村生态环境能改善农村人居环境,建设美丽宜居乡村.基于北京市3个村的问卷数据,从北京农户的个人因素、社会网络因素和家庭经营因素共14个指标入手,运用Logistic回归分析方法进行研究.结果显示,不同农户的性别、年龄、从事的职业、受教育程度、政治面貌、是否为村委干部、家庭年收入、家庭食品支出占总收入的比重和家庭劳动力所占比重对北京农村生态环境治理的认知具有显著影响.     

Causal effects of family income on educational investment and child outcomes: Evidence from a policy reform in Japan

The Child Allowance Policy (CAP) in Japan, a nationwide cash transfer program for families with children, was designed to increase household expenditures toward children. Using unforeseen changes in the CAP that occurred due to the electoral results as a source of exogenous variation in income in the early 2010s, this paper examines the causal impact of family income on households’ private educational expenditures and child outcomes in the short-run, based on a longitudinal parent-child survey. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and first-differenced (FD) results show that family income is in most cases positively correlated with child's cognitive outcomes, and, to a lesser extent, with families’ educational expenditure on their children. Based on the FD instrumental variable (FD-IV) estimation, using unexpected changes in CAP payments as an instrument, we find positive income effects on educational expenditure in the short-run. However, we did not find statistically significant impacts on children's cognitive outcomes.     

Africa's clientelist budget policies revisited: public expenditure and employment in Kenya,Tanzania and Uganda, 1960–2010

What can be learned about policy prioritization in Africa by examining long‐run trends in public expenditure and employment? Many have contended that Africa's post‐colonial leaders pursued economically unproductive budget policies that prioritized the growth of their patronage networks over socially beneficial spending, resulting in bloated payrolls, persistent deficits, and a large rent‐seeking public service. Using a purpose‐built dataset of annual public expenditure and employment series from Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda for 1960–2010 against which to test these assumptions, this article questions whether there was anything exceptional about the growth or composition of East Africa's post‐independence expenditure. All three states grew and contracted in roughly the same periods as other regions of the world, although their contraction after 1980 was particularly marked. Industrial policy and capital investments influenced budget priorities in the early independence era, while military expenditure and debt service payments escalated in the late 1970s. The government wage bill, meanwhile, fell as a proportion of total spending over the same period. To finance employment growth while the wage bill contracted, governments allowed real wages to plummet in the 1970s–90s. In light of these external constraints and legacies, this article questions whether a budget unencumbered by patronage would have looked very different.     

组态视角下中国能源消费结构优化路径研究——基于模糊集定性比较分析法

选取2020年29个省份数据为样本，从系统论角度出发，运用模糊集定性比较分析方法，研究中国能源消费结构影响因素的协同关系以及提升路径。研究发现：中国能源消费结构优化路径有5条，前因变量在不同路径中的表现不同，其中产业结构升级存在各条路径中且多以核心条件存在，出现次数最多；一定条件下，因素之间具有替代性，部分因素同时具有互斥性。研究结论有助于深化对中国能源消费结构复杂因果机制的认识。     

投资动机视角下江苏省对东盟10国直接投资的影响因素研究

基于2007—2020年东盟10国的数据,构建拓展的投资引力模型,实证分析投资动机视角下江苏省对东盟直接投资的影响因素,研究发现江苏省对东盟的直接投资动机最为明显的是成本寻求型,其次是技术寻求型和市场寻求型,最后是资源寻求型,而基础设施也对江苏省对东盟的直接投资产生重要影响。为了更好地促进对东盟10国的投资,江苏省应加快边际产业的转移,同时增加对部分国家基础设施的直接投资,并且优化对东盟国家直接投资的结构。     

Local land supply and fiscal incentives for R&D: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Whereas numerous studies have evaluated the effects of public research and development (R&D) support programs and R&D tax incentives on private R&D, little is known about local governments' fiscal incentives for R&D. In this study, we build a conceptual framework to clarify the critical role of local land supply in relation to fiscal expenditure on R&D. We treat the establishment of China's nine Land Supervision Bureaus in 2006 as a quasi-natural experiment, and run a difference-in-differences regression to identify causality. The results show that local governments allocate more fiscal expenditure to R&D in response to land-use supervision, which monitors illegal land granting behaviors, and this effect is stronger in cities where leaders have higher political career incentives and cities with greater fiscal decentralization. Moreover, we find that land-use supervision increases the probability and scale of firms' access to government subsidies for R&D; thus, enhancing regional innovation capacity. Our findings document that China's land resource is a curse for its innovation-driven growth as it impedes local governments' fiscal incentives for R&D.