NEW ESTIMATES OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN INDONESIAN MANUFACTURING

This paper estimates new elasticities of value added with respect to labour and capital in Indonesian manufacturing, controlling for the simultaneity problem that potentially exists between the choice of input levels and a productivity shock (such as an increase in productivity due to new production processes), for plant exit, and for quasi-constant unobservable plant characteristics. It does so by applying the Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) production function estimator to plant-level value added, fixed assets, labour, and electricity consumption data over the period 1988–95. This methodology allows us to revisit the previously used growth accounting based elasticities, and thereby improves total factor productivity (TFP) estimates. The results show that, in the period under study, aggregate TFP growth in Indonesian manufacturing was higher than had previously been estimated.     

INDONESIAN TRADE LIBERALISATION: ESTIMATING THE GAINS

Indonesia has undergone comprehensive trade liberalisation by participating in multilateral and regional trade arrangements and by conducting unilateral liberalisation. This paper evaluates the different paths of liberalisation the country has followed, and measures their effects on the economy. It considers the impact of several liberalisation scenarios: unilateral liberalisation; regional liberalisation through APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) and AFTA (the ASEAN Free Trade Area); and multilateral trade liberalisation through the Uruguay Round (UR). The results show that the full implementation of UR and APEC liberalisation would greatly benefit Indonesia, and that unilateral liberalisation, carried out in conjunction with the UR commitment, would lead to large welfare gains. On the other hand, the creation of AFTA is expected to add little to welfare in Indonesia or in the other ASEAN member countries.     

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY*

This paper is an econometric study of the Indonesian economy. Our intention is to evaluate the interactions within the Indonesian economy, to forecast the selected economic variables under given assumptions, and to measure the effects of various policies. This is to be achieved through an cconometric analysis which uses the available statistics and which provides an analytical framework for the present national income statistics.     

INDONESIAN POLITICS IN 2008: THE AMBIGUITIES OF DEMOCRATIC CHANGE

The ‘normal’ politics of 2008, in between the big electoral events of 2004 and 2009, illustrated the ambiguities of democratic change. Hung gubernatorial elections in North Maluku and South Sulawesi led local elites to ask Jakarta to intervene. A long campaign of demonstrations and violent intimidation by fundamentalist groups against the unorthodox Islamic group Ahmadiyah persuaded the government to impose a semi-ban on the group. At the same time, a senior intelligence officer was put on trial over the 2004 murder of the human rights activist Munir. And the Corruption Eradication Commission continued to arrest powerful people for corruption, although these arrests also began to stimulate increasingly organised resistance. All in all, politics in 2008 demonstrated an openness, and even a willingness to learn, that augurs well for the future.     

GLOBAL MARKETS,FARMERS AND THE STATE: SUSTAINING PROFITS IN THE INDONESIAN COCOA SECTOR

The rapid expansion of cocoa farming among Sulawesi smallholders since 1980 has transformed the island into a hub within the global cocoa industry. It hosts a number of multinational trading firms and has an expanding grinding sector. In recent years, however, the cocoa sector has been struck by severe pest, disease and quality problems, which are undermining the long-term sustainability of one of Eastern Indonesia's most important rural industries. Some form of intervention is needed if the cocoa industry is to avoid steady decline. This paper examines the role of informal institutions, cocoa multinationals and government in attempts to maintain farm profits in Sulawesi.     

传递凯洋似海深情

凯洋经历了近十年的发展,将世界海鲜礼盒带给国人,实现了让国人不出国门尝遍世界海鲜的美好愿望。凯洋世界海鲜礼品盒系列,以其鲜美的肉质、精致的包装和适宜的价格,成为广大市民非常喜爱的生活必需品和馈赠亲友的佳品,赢得了巨大的市场竞争力,在大连、东北、全国乃至世界各地的客户中树起了自己亮丽的品牌。     

INDONESIAN POLITICS IN 2007: THE PRESIDENCY,LOCAL ELECTIONS AND THE FUTURE OF DEMOCRACY

This article begins by reviewing the politics of the presidency, including the relationship between the president, the political parties and the House of Representatives (DPR). Referring to survey data, it analyses the dynamics of public support for President Yudhoyono, and takes a preliminary look at the 2009 presidential election. It also discusses the manoeuvring between Indonesia's two largest parties, Golkar and PDI-P, in the context of recent debates in the DPR concerning a package of draft political laws.

Indonesia is undergoing continual reform with regard to local, as well as national, politics. The introduction of direct elections for heads of government at the local level is a major political development that may help accelerate democratic consolidation. Based on an examination of local election results, this article concludes that the advent of direct elections has fuelled the formation of unprecedented cross-ideological political alliances. It appears that the ideological polarisation of national politics is often no longer reflected in provincial and local politics.     

THE IMPACT OF THE INDONESIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS ON CHILDREN: AN ANALYSIS USING THE 100 VILLAGES DATA

This paper examines the impact of the Asian financial crisis on children in Indonesia. Specifically, data from four rounds of the 100 Villages Survey are used to examine changes in school attendance rates, child labour force participation and health status. The paper also examines ways in which households are coping with the crisis. The findings provide little evidence that the crisis has had a dramatic negative impact on children. School attendance dropped slightly after the onset of the crisis but has since rebounded to higher than pre-crisis levels. Fewer children are now working, although the older children who are working and not attending school seem to be working longer hours. Comparisons of child health status indicators over time are complicated by changes in the questionnaire but appear to show a relatively stable pattern of child health.     

THE RISE OF LABOR MOVEMENTS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE INDONESIAN SYSTEM OF INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS: A CASE STUDY

This study analyzes a case of labor conflict at a garment company in West Java with particular reference to the rules and strategics among the parties involved. Using game theory, the study analyzes the formation of the critical point of labor conflict and examines the negotiations that led to the formation of stable industrial relations. At that point, the Nash equilibrium was at the company strategy of collaboration and at the workers' strategy of hostility, the company having assumed that the workers would mount a strong resistance to the company's hostile strategy. Under circumstances of weak law enforcement, the effective strategy for the workers was not only to obtain knowledge concerning the law but also to gain the support of the community, as well as solidarity among union members, and to pursue creative strategies. This study also shows that an important rule for stabilizing industrial relations is continual communication among the company, labor unions, and the members of the workers' organizations.     

吉商构筑新平台

2011年4月1 9日,大连吉林商会成立庆典大会在大连富丽华酒店举行。吉林省人大常委会副主任包秦、吉林省政协副主席林炎志、大连市人民政府副市长孙广田等省市领导及各界嘉宾、商会会员共计400余人出席了大会。     

REFORM OF ECONOMIC LAWS AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE POST‐CRISIS INDONESIAN ECONOMY

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the economic laws some of which were introduced in the IMF‐led post‐crisis reforms to address serious problems faced by the Indonesian economy. It is argued in the study that the economic law reform has not been as effective as expected since the implementation of a law has not conformed with legal policy. The objective of the legal policy of the Bankruptcy Act, which was enacted in accordance with IMF conditionality, was to liquidate insolvent domestic companies and to relieve foreign creditors. At the implementation stage, however, the ruling of the commercial courts was often handed down against creditors. The ineffective implementation was due to several factors; one of them was judges' defensive reaction to possible hostile takeover by foreign creditors.