Analysis of Korean IT startups’ initial public offering and their post-IPO performance

Since the financial crisis in Korea, by focusing on core technology, IT startups have played an important role in the recovery of Korea’s economy through innovating technologies and creating new jobs. Even though there are many startups, it is not very common to reach the point of the initial public offering (IPO) and the post-IPO performance of the firms is mostly declining. Since it is rather difficult to apply conventional performance measures to very young firms, IPO has been used as a tool for performance evaluation. This study adopts the IPO as an early-stage measure for the performance of high technology startups. It is important to find out whether an earlier IPO of firms leads to a better performance and capability of firms. We investigate the relationship between the time to IPO of firms and their post-IPO performance for 3 years after their IPO by adopting samples of 79 information technology hardware firms founded after 1996 and listed between 2000 and 2004 in the KOSDAQ. Four determinant factors, including entrepreneurs’ experience, venture capital investment, startups’ technology sourcing, and technology portfolios which determine the firm’s time lag to getting to the IPO, are identified. The findings contain several results. First, the patent has positive effects on the firms’ performance after an IPO and on the firms’ growth before the IPO. Second, a faster technology acquisition via technology alliance has a positive influence on the firms’ IPO regardless of internal technologies. Third, concentrating on core technology, instead of diversifying can mature the startup firms faster. These indicate that a startup’s efficient initial strategy is critical for its performance and it enhances the credit and confidence of the market.     

Organizations undertaking complex projects in uncertain environments

Recent evidence suggests that firms’ environments are becoming more complex and uncertain. This paper investigates the relationship between the complexity of a firm’s activities, environmental uncertainty and organizational structure. We assume agents are arranged hierarchically, but decisions can be made at different levels. We model a firm’s activity set as a modified NK landscape. Via simulations, we find that centralized decision making generates a higher payoff in more complex and uncertain environments, and that a flatter structure is better for the organization with centralized decision making, provided the cost of information processing is low enough. Financial Support from Zengin Foundation for Studies on Economics and Finance is gratefully acknowledged.     

Corporate R&D and firm efficiency: evidence from Europe’s top R&D investors

The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of corporate research and development (R&D) activities on firm performance, measured by labour productivity. To this end, the stochastic frontier technique is used on a unique unbalanced longitudinal dataset comprising top European R&D investors over the period 2000–2005. In this framework, this study quantifies technical inefficiency of individual firms. From a policy perspective, the results of this study suggest that if the aim is to leverage firms’ productivity, the emphasis should be put on supporting corporate R&D in high-tech sectors and, to some extent, in medium-tech sectors. On the other hand, corporate R&D in the low-tech sector is found to have a minor effect in explaining productivity. Instead, encouraging investment in fixed assets appears important for the productivity of low-tech industries. Hence, the allocation of support for corporate R&D seems to be as important as its overall increase and an ‘erga omnes’ approach across all sectors appears inappropriate. However, with regard to technical efficiency, R&D intensity is found to be a pivotal factor in explaining firm efficiency and this turns out to be true for all industries.     

Implementation of social optimum in oligopoly

This paper presents a decentralized mechanism implementing socially optimal output choices by non-cooperatively acting oligopolists. A decentralized mechanism is a vector of balanced transfers among firms determined as a function of firms’ output choices. The mechanism is devised by a regulator with a full knowledge of demand and without any knowledge of the firms’ cost functions. Restricting the set of admissible demand and cost functions such that the firms always have an incentive to produce, it turns out that the socially optimal solution is implementable insofar as the demand function is a polynomial of at most (n−1)th degree, n being the number of firms in the industry. The author is indebted to a referee and an associate editor for their helpful comments.     

The origins of the mean-variance approach in finance: revisiting de Finetti 65 years later

Abstract In a recent critical review of de Finetti’s paper “Il problema dei pieni’’, the Nobel Prize winner Harry Markowitz recognized the primacy of de Finetti in applying the mean-variance approach to finance, but pointed out that de Finetti did not solve the problem for the general case of correlated risks. We argue in this paper that a more fair sentence would be: de Finetti did solve the general problem but under an implicit hypothesis of regularity which is not always satisfied. Moreover, a natural extension of de Finetti’s procedure to non-regular cases offers a general solution for the correlation case and shows that de Finetti anticipated a modern mathematical programming approach to mean-variance problems. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B30, 90C20 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: G11, C61, B23, D81, G22     

Default-risky bond prices with jumps,liquidity risk and incomplete information

This paper provides a default-risky bond valuation model, which assumes that the issuer’s credit quality, modelled by the intensity of default, is driven by a continuous-time Markov chain. The model accounts for default and liquidity risk as well as incomplete information. A full-information semimartingale representation of a liquid defaultable bond price, which separates three different types of risks—default, interest-rate and credit-quality, is obtained. The illiquidity is modelled as exogenously specified stochastic reduction in the price of the bond, which adds more risks for the investors. A model of a market with partially informed investors, belonging to specific investor classes and having access to discrete information sets about credit quality, was specified. Valuations of defaultable bonds in this market were provided as well as price impacts of the new information releases.      

Price cap regulation and the ratchet effect: a generalized index approach

In this study we estimate a variable cost function on a panel of English and Welsh Water and Sewerage companies, observed over two full regulatory periods (1995–2004). The main aim of the paper is to investigate the presence of a ratchet effect in the cost cutting activity associated with the price cap regulatory regime. By applying the Generalized Index of Technical Change approach suggested by Baltagi and Griffin (J Polit Econ 96(1):20–41, (1988)), we provide some empirical evidence consistent with the existence of regulatory cycles. In particular, firms’ cost cutting activity tends to increase in the early phase of the regulatory cycle, while it weakens as the price review approaches. D24, L51, L95.     

The optimal capital structure of the firm with stable Lévy assets returns

This article builds a new structural default model under the assumption that a firm’s assets return follows a dynamics displaying jumps of both signs. In essence, we expand the work of Hilberink and Rogers (itself an extension of the Leland and Toft framework), which deals only with negative jumps. In contrast, we make use of stable Lévy processes, and we compute the values of the firm, debt and equity under this assumption. Theoretical credit spreads can also be obtained in our framework. They prove to be consistent with the empirical credit spreads observed in financial markets.      

Correlated performance of firms in a transaction network

The correlation of firms’ performance on a transaction network is studied by analyzing financial and transaction data. Statistically significant correlation coefficients are obtained as evidence for the firm interactions. The firm interactions are taken into account in the basic equation of firm activity. Forty percent of residuals are explained by considering the firm interactions. The overall structure of the transaction network, i.e., the connectivity of industry sectors, is analyzed.     

Are day traders bias free?—evidence from internet stock message boards

This study addresses the issue whether day traders’ recommendations on stocks are biasfree. We test whether on average day traders’ “Hold” sentiment is skewed and different from a neutral opinion. Posted messages and mature text classifier technology provide a novel approach to analyze the content of these “Hold” sentiment postings among day traders. Findings indicate that the self-disclosed “Hold” sentiment conveys an optimistic opinion and significantly differs from neutral. These results help both investors and researchers to better understand day traders’ psychology and behaviors when they recommend stocks. The paper also provides insight into the construction of future online sentiment indexes based on stock message boards.     

A bidimensional approach to mortality risk

Abstract We analyze the evolution over time of portfolios of life insurance contracts referring to different cohorts or risk classes of insureds. We model the intensity of mortality as a random field, in order to capture cross-generation (risk class) effects induced by the on-going management of portfolios of policies. Applications are described in the context of mortality risk analysis and (market) valuation of liabilities at aggregate level. It is shown how the model can be employed when an insurer’s new business is considered.     

Social networks and labour productivity in Europe: an empirical investigation

This paper uses firm-level data recorded in the Amadeus database to investigate the distribution of labour productivity in different European countries. We find that the upper tail of the empirical productivity distributions follows a decaying power-law, whose exponent α is obtained by a semi-parametric estimation technique recently developed by Clementi et al. [Physica A 370(1):49–53, 2006]. The emergence of “fat tails” in productivity distribution has already been detected in Di Matteo et al. [Eur Phys J B 47(3):459–466, 2005] and explained by means of a model of social network. Here we show that this model is tested on a broader sample of countries having different patterns of social network structure. These different social attitudes, measured using a social capital indicator, reflect in the power-law exponent estimates, verifying in this way the existence of linkages among firms’ productivity performance and social network.     

The role of inward foreign direct investment on entrepreneurship

This paper investigates whether foreign firms had a positive impact on entrepreneurial activity measured by the net creation of firms. Using firm-level panel data for the Portuguese manufacturing and service industries over the period 1986 to 2000, we test whether the impact of foreign firms on firms’ entry depends on the number and size of previous foreign entrants. Overall, the results cast some doubts on the influence of foreign firms in assisting entrepreneurial activity. The impact of a first foreign investment is, in general, positive but the marginal impact of additional investments appears to be negative.     

An evolutionary model of industry dynamics and firms’ institutional behavior with job search, bargaining and matching

By combining features from distinct theoretical approaches, namely the evolutionary and the job search, matching and bargaining literatures, we propose a model that captures the main dynamics of a world where heterogeneous firms and workers interact and co-evolve. Within a micro-meso framework, the model focuses on the influence of firms’ labour choices (“institutional settings”) on industry dynamics, taking into account the existence of employment adjustment costs. The consideration of endogenous matching and bargaining processes in the labour market results in significant frictions, such as the simultaneous coexistence of unfilled job vacancies and unemployment. In a setting where technological progress is not biased a stylized fact of industrialized world economies in the last few decades emerges, the increasing wage inequality. Additionally, turbulence in the industry increases after a negative demand shock. As expected, the negative demand shock causes a decrease in the number of vacancies and, consequently, unemployment rates increase considerably. Interestingly, and mimicking the recent experiences of countries such as US, Spain, Greece and Portugal, the rise in unemployment is matched by a rise in contractual wages. This outcome is explained by the lower ability of the firms to fill their posted vacancies, which results from friction in the interactions among agents.     

Mutual excitation in Eurozone sovereign CDS

We study self- and cross-excitation of shocks in the Eurozone sovereign CDS market. We adopt a multivariate setting with credit default intensities driven by mutually exciting jump processes, to capture the salient features observed in the data, in particular, the clustering of high default probabilities both in time (over days) and in space (across countries). The feedback between jump events and the intensity of these jumps is the key element of the model. We derive closed-form formulae for CDS prices, and estimate the model by matching theoretical prices to their empirical counterparts. We find evidence of self-excitation and asymmetric cross-excitation. Using impulse-response analysis, we assess the impact of shocks and a potential policy intervention not just on a single country under scrutiny but also, through the effect on cross-excitation risk which generates systemic sovereign risk, on other interconnected countries.     

A meta-validation model for assessing the score-validity of student teaching evaluations

Virtually every institution of higher education in the US uses some type of student teaching evaluation (STE) instrument as a means of assessing instructors’ instructional performance in courses. Unfortunately, many administrators and faculty misinterpret STE ratings. Therefore, the present article provides a comprehensive critique of STE instruments. In particular, we build on Messick’s (Educational Measurement, MacMillan, pp. 13–103, and Messick (Am. Psychol., 50, 741–749, 1995, 1989) conceptualization of validity to yield what we refer to as a meta-validity model that subdivides content-, criterion-, and construct-related validity into several areas of evidence. We use our meta-validity model to conduct a meta-validity analysis of STEs. Specifically, we assessed the score-validity of STEs based on findings from the extant literature. We conclude that strong evidence has been provided with respect to areas of criterion-related validity; however, for the most part, weak or inadequate evidence has been provided with regard to areas of both content-related and construct-related validity. This seriously calls into question both the score-validity and utility of STEs.     

Firms and universities—do spillovers enhance firm’s performance?

This paper aims to assess if geographic proximity from universities enhances small firms’ performance, by means of knowledge spillovers. A sample of micro data is used on 390 manufacturing firms and 11 public universities in Portugal. Performance is measured by labour productivity. The estimation was made using OLS as well as Quantile Regression. Results seem to confirm that both domains of knowledge do produce distinct effects, but there is no evidence that a firm’s performance improves with the proximity to a university. Likewise, the quality of universities does not seem to influence the labour productivity of firms.

IPO mechanism selection by using Classification and Regression Trees

The Turkish IPO market gives issuers and underwriters a choice of three different IPO selling mechanisms. The current paper sheds new light on the determinants of these issue procedures within the context of the following methods (i) book building mechanism, (ii) fixed price offer, and (iii) sale through the stock exchange. Most of the empirical models in the IPO literature use binary probit and logit models to determine the factors behind the choice of one method over another and try to answer the question of “why is such a mechanism chosen”. To understand the reasons on issuers’ selection of IPO mechanism, we have conducted a Classification and Regression Trees (CART) methodology to represent decision rules in a form of binary trees. Our results indicate that, CART methodology predicts a firms’ IPO selling mechanism with 77.42% accuracy. The most important variable that determines the IPO selling mechanism is the Arrangement Type between the issuer and the underwriter as in the form of best effort and firm-commitment.