THE INCOME DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF A NATURAL GAS PRICE INCREASE

Deregulation of wellhead natural gas prices will affect individuals as consumers and resource owners. It is shown that higher natural gas prices will be roughly progressive with respect to household and general consumers. The effects on the distribution of resource earnings will be ambiguous because although the oil and gas industry is highly capital intensive, natural gas price deregulation will likely cause reduced spending on other capital-intensive activities, including deep drilling for high cost gas, gas utility distribution, and exports. Overall, no clear case can be made that gas wellhead price deregulation will be regressive     

基于可计算一般均衡模型的能源价格变动对新疆经济的影响

基于通用可计算一般均衡(CGE)平台,探讨了能源价格变动对新疆地区宏观经济的影响。模拟结果显示:(1)煤炭价格和天然气价格分别上涨10%以后,新疆地区的GDP、各部门的产出和居民消费变动不大,说明提高煤炭和天然气价格不会对新疆经济造成大的波动,未来新疆地区能源价格改革应从煤炭和天然气入手。(2)油价上涨10%后,新疆地区部门产出和居民消费变化较大,因此未来新疆地区在提高油价时应考虑社会稳定,避免产生大的经济波动。值得注意的是提高油价后,城乡收入差距缩小。总体来说提高油价所产生的影响是积极的。     

Did the introduction of a nodal market structure impact wholesale electricity prices in the Texas (ERCOT) market?

Regression analysis suggests that zonal averages of locational marginal prices under the nodal market are about 2 % lower than the balancing energy prices that would occur under the previous zonal market structure in ERCOT. The estimates for the nodal market price effects are found after controlling for such factors as natural gas prices, total system load levels, non-dispatchable generation levels, the treatment of local congestion costs, and the treatment of the revenues received by the market from the auctioning of transmission rights. Our finding is limited to periods which are not characterized by price spikes in the wholesale market.     

Cigarette tax revenues and tobacco control in Japan

The hypotheses of non-addiction, myopia and rational addiction are tested using annual, quarterly and monthly data. Changes in the prices of Japanese cigarettes can be viewed as exogenous from the point of view of consumer behaviour, because the Japanese government controls cigarette prices. The empirical results of this paper support the addiction hypothesis. The short-run and long-run price elasticities range from ?0.338 to ?0.421, and from ?0.679 to ?0.686, respectively; thus, increases in tax revenues in the long run are likely to be smaller than those in the short run. As a result, tax increases would be an effective means of curbing smoking and reducing its social cost. Furthermore, the debt compensation programmes for the Japan Railway and the National Forestry will not go according to plan, unless revenues are increased in the future.     

The Path and Threshold Effect of Digitalization on the Competitiveness of China's Manufacturing Export

Since its traditional comparative advantages are on the wane, China should use digital economy to enhance its competitiveness of manufacturing export. Based on microscopic data of various regions in China from 2013 to 2020, this paper studies the relationship between digital economy and China’s competitiveness of manufacturing export, the internal mechanism of their influence, and the boundary conditions for the establishment of the relationship between digital economy and competitiveness of manufacturing export. Our conclusions include that: there is a significant positive spatial correlation between digital economy and export competitiveness; digital economy can not only enhance the export competitiveness of the region, but also have a positive impact on that of adjacent regions; innovation efficiency, the accumulation of human capital and synergistic agglomeration exerts a mediating effect when digital economy impacts China’s export competitiveness; and with the share of import trade as the threshold variable, the facilitating effect of digital economy on the export competitiveness of the western region is lower than that of the eastern region before the threshold, but significantly higher than that of the eastern , central and northeastern regions as well as the whole country after the threshold. Therefore, China should vigorously promote the construction of new digital infrastructure in the western region, and give full play to the role of new digital infrastructure in promoting trade upgrade. Through the improvement of human capital quality, the centralized development of digital economy and the overall improvement of innovation efficiency, we should gradually improve the international competitiveness of China’s export enterprises.     

Market Power with Interdependent Demand: Sale of Emission Permits and Natural Gas from Russia

With implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, Russia will most likely be able to exert market power in the emission permit market. But, as Russia is also a big exporter of fossil fuels, the incentives to boost the permit price may be weak. However, a significant share of Russia’s fossil fuel exports is natural gas. If a high permit price boosts the demand for natural gas through substitution from more polluting fuels and thus increase gas profits, this may increase the incentives to exert monopoly power in the permit market. Moreover, a large fossil fuel exporter may use its market position to influence the effective demand for permits. Hence, the relationship between permit income and fossil fuels exports runs in both directions. In this article, we explore the interdependence between the revenues from permit and fossil fuel exports both theoretically and numerically. A computable general equilibrium model suggests the fact that Russia as a big gas exporter has small effect on the incentives to exert monopoly power in the permit market. Moreover, Russia’s monopoly power in the permit market has a small, but non-negligible impact on the optimal level of Russian gas exports.     

Pipeline congestion and basis differentials

In the U.S., natural gas pipeline transport has undergone a wave of deregulatory actions over the past several decades. The underlying motive has been the presumption that removing regulatory frictions would facilitate spot price arbitrage, helping to integrate prices across geographic locations and improve efficiency. Yet certain frictions, specifically the effect of congestion on transportation costs, inhibit positive deregulatory impacts on efficiency. With the increase in domestic production and consumption of natural gas over the coming decades, upward pressure on the demand for transport will likely result in an increased occurrence of persistently congested pipeline routes. In this paper we explore the relationship between congestion and spot prices using a simple network model, paying particular attention to the influence of storage. We find that as congestion between two hubs increases, the scarcity value of transmission capacity rises, driving a wedge between spot prices. We empirically quantify this effect over a specific pipeline route in the Rocky Mountain region that closely resembles our structural design. Although our results paint a stark picture of the impact that congestion can have on efficiency, we also find evidence that the availability of storage mitigates the price effects of congestion through the intertemporal substitution of transmission services.     

Climate policy and the optimal extraction of high‐ and low‐carbon fossil fuels

Abstract. We study how restricting CO₂ emissions affects resource prices and depletion over time. We use a Hotelling‐style model with two non‐renewable fossil fuels that differ in their carbon content (e.g., coal and natural gas) and in addition are imperfect substitutes in final good production. We show that an economy facing a CO₂ flow‐constraint may substitute towards the relatively dirty input. As the economy tries to maximize output per unit of emissions it is not only carbon content that matters: productivity matters as well. With an announced constraint the economy first substitutes towards the less productive input such that more of the productive input is available when constrained. Preliminary empirical results suggest that it is cost‐effective to substitute away from dirty coal to cleaner oil or gas, but to substitute from natural gas towards the dirtier input oil.     

长江经济带对外贸易竞争力水平测度及比较研究

对标贸易强国建设目标,本文结合省市参与国际贸易的实际特征,将已有国家层面对外贸易竞争力测算方法应用于省市对外贸易竞争力的测评工作中,对长江经济带各省市对外贸易竞争力水平开展测度及比较分析。本文研究发现,无论是分别考察进出口情况还是考察综合贸易竞争力,长江经济带下游三省市的对外贸易竞争力水平均要显著高于中游和上游地区,但其水平发展的波动性十分明显。进一步的结构分解结果显示,区域内上海、重庆的进出口贸易竞争力水平变化均取决于综合价格水平贡献,而其余省市进出口某一方面的竞争力水平变化则依赖于贸易份额的贡献。分产品类别对对外贸易竞争力水平的比较结果显示,长江经济带下游三省市的主要产品类别均在区域内实现了较高的进出口及综合对外贸易竞争力;中游四省市在发展对外贸易的过程中,约有一半类别的产品达到了区域内贸易水平的前列;而上游省市主要在个别产品类别上实现了较优的竞争力水平。     

Copper and the Chilean Economy, 1960-98

This paper studies the links between world copper prices and the Chilean economy. The main conclusion is that world copper prices play an important role in short-term economic fluctuations. While many mechanisms may be at work, investment seems to play a major role. During a copper price boom, the higher copper revenues and associated capital inflows create upward pressure on the real exchange rate. In turn the, appreciation of the Chilean peso during the first part of the copper cycle contributes to lower inflation, which could explain why real wages grow more rapidly in this part of the cycle.     

东北地区民营经济发展战略及地域组织形式研究

由于历史上诸多原因汇集,东北老工业基地国有经济一统天下,民营经济发展起步晚、规模小,与发达地区相比明显处于落后状态。改造和振兴东北老工业基地,国有企业的改制、改组和改造,激活地方经济,资源型城市和地区结构转型和发展接续产业,实现社会公平等方面．都离不开民营经济的发展和积极参与,发展民营经济也是解决“东北现象”和“新东北现象”的根本途径。文章通过对东北老工业基地民营经济发展特点和现状的阐述,以及对优势条件的分析,提出厂发展战略及其指导下的地域组织形式和路径：     

Controling tax evasion under direct and indirect taxation: Some notes

The purpose of the paper is to use a simple model of the firm having monopoly power in the goods market as the framework to study the relative effectiveness of unit, ad valorem and profit taxes under two alternative criteria when the taxes are changeds so as to keep either the expected utility of the monopoly firm or the expected tax revenues for government constant. Under the former policy the profit tax turns out to be best and the unit tax worst in all respects; for instance, the profit tax will give rise to higher production, lower prices, lower tax evasion and higher tax revenues for government than other taxes. The dominance of the profit tax and the inferiority of the unit tax still holds under the policy of keeping the expected tax revenues constant in terms of production, prices and the expected utility of the monopoly firm. But strikingly, in terms of effectiveness of tax evasion control the ranking of taxes is now exactly the reverse from the one obtained under the expected utility criterium; now the unit tax is best and the profit tax worst.     

都市圈循环经济竞争力评价研究——以济南都市圈为例

提出都市圈循环经济竞争力的内涵和效益+潜力评价指标体系,并以济南都市圈为例进行实证研究。结果证明处于成长发育期的都市圈循环经济竞争力空间结构呈核心—圈层结构和点轴结构具有科学性,都市圈循环经济竞争力空间结构既有一般规律也有多样性;要重视各循环经济竞争力指标之间的协调,优化都市圈循环经济竞争力空间结构,以实现都市圈循环经济竞争力的最优化。     

Geography,geopolitics, and policy in the performance of transition economies

The economic performance of the transition economies as of 2015 is well explained by three variables: (1) years of membership in the EU; (2) physical distance from the heart of the EU economy, taken to be Dusseldorf; and (3) annual revenues from oil and gas production, reflecting natural resource deposits. These three factors account for around 86 percent of the variation in per capita income across the 28 transition economies, and reflect the interplay of domestic policy, geopolitics, geography and natural resources.     

An African Growth Trap: Production Technology and the Time-Consistency of Agricultural Taxation, R&D and Investment

Why do so many African governments consistently impose high tax rates and make little investment in productive public goods, when alternative policies could yield greater tax revenues and higher national income? The authors posit and test an intertemporal political economy model in which the government sets tax and R&D levels while investors respond with production. Equilibrium policy and growth rates depend on the initial cost structure. It is found that in many (but not all) African countries, low tax/high investment regimes would be time‐inconsistent, primarily because production technology requires relatively large sunk costs. For pro‐growth policies to become sustainable, new political commitment mechanisms or new production techniques would be needed.     

Fuel inventory and price relationships in the U.S. electric power sector under regulatory and market change

Long-run relationships among coal inventories at U.S. electric power plants, corporate bond rates and coal, natural gas, and electricity prices are estimated over the period July 1976 to October 2014. Tests for constancy of the long-run relationships show periods of instability which coincide with major regulatory events in the electric power sector. Deregulation of the natural gas and electricity markets are likely sources of instability for the period mid-1994 to mid-2001. Additionally, inventory behavior may have had a smoothing effect over instability caused by natural gas prices during the recent U.S. shale boom. Policy makers should be aware that altering the regulatory environment can result in considerable fluctuations in how firms’ inventory decisions interact with input and output markets and opportunity costs in the long run.     

Agricultural enlargement of the EU under Agenda 2000: Surplus of farm labour versus surplus of farm products

In the Commission's proposals for reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and enlargement of the EU (Agenda 2000), the agriculture of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is denied future access to compensatory payments for cuts in support prices in the EU15. To offset this, the acceding countries are promised a similar net amount of structural aid for their economy and society at large. This dual treatment aims at preventing agricultural surpluses and intersectoral distortion after accession. However, the actual situation and dynamics of agriculture in Central Europe (CE) compared to that in the EU does not support the surplus assumption globally, but only for certain products, chiefly grains. So far overlooked, but nevertheless, a key obstacle opposing competitive recovery, is the tendency of the dual, post-communist agrarian structures, faced with high rural unemployment, to protect long-term underproductive farm labour to the detriment of capital and land remuneration, mainly in livestock production. This configuration is supported by specific trade and land protections, and loose qualittative regulations that will be challenged by the EU enlargement. So, after accession under the Agenda 2000 schedule, it seems likely that CEE countries will achieve European competitiveness only at the cost of some recession, further deterioration of trade balances with the EU 15 and sharp decreases in farm employment levels. These factors would chiefly affect livestock production which, combined with crop intensification, is likely to result in a substantial increase in grain surpluses. Later on, the enlarged EU will have to bear the inevitable social consequences that transitional periods after accession might otherwise have postponed.     

FUEL CHOICE FOR MULTI-FUEL VEHICLES

Consequences of consuming petroleum in transportation—e.g., air pollution, global warming, energy insecurity—have stimulated interest in alternative automotive fuels and in vehicles that can use multiple fuels and combinations of fuels. Consumer behavior in choosing motor fuels for flexible- or dual-fuel vehicles will likely be a key factor in creating and maintaining stable markets for new fuels. This paper explores the implications of recent studies on the sensitivity of choice of gasoline grade to price. It analyzes natural gas vehicle owners' refueling behavior, based on a survey of natural gas vehicles in Canada. The paper uses statistical models to estimate the importance of performance, range, refueling convenience, and other factors in the fuel choice decision. Choice of gasoline grade is highly sensitive to fuel prices. The cost advantage of natural gas also is of paramount importance for natural gas users. However, refueling convenience is essential for overall satisfaction and is a major factor in the frequency of natural gas use. Alternative fuels not only must be cost competitive with gasoline but initially will require a cost advantage so as to overcome range limitations and refueling inconvenience.     

新型工业化与东北老工业基地改造对策

东北老工业基地对我国全面建设小康社会仍然具有战略地位。提出东北老工业基地改造要走区域特色的新型工业化道路。针对东北地区的传统思维,阐述了新型工业化道路的关键在于区域创新,即新体制、新结构、新资源、新技术、新开放和新战略。老工业基地改造要采取综合对策：立足传统工业优势,深化国有企业改组改造,加强国内外合作,重点发展具有区域比较优势的装备制造业,实现产业结构的升级;把东北老工业基地改造与城市功能的完善结合起来,重点改造大中城市,走内涵式城市化道路,实现老工业城市的再生;发挥东北地区的智力资源优势,全面提升区域经济竞争力;把乡村工业化作为东北地区新型工业化战略的重要方面,大力发展农产品加工业,改变区域工业化的“二元结构”,在城市工业结构调整和乡村工业化中统筹安排“三农”问题,实现城乡经济的协调发展。     

Are natural gas spot and futures prices predictable?

We answer two questions concerning natural gas spot and futures prices. The first is: Can natural gas futures prices predict natural gas spot prices? The second is: Are natural gas spot and futures prices weak form efficient or can they be predicted based on examination of historical data? To answer these questions, we use daily data for Henry Hub natural gas spot and futures prices. Our answer to the first question is that natural gas futures prices do not predict the magnitude of future natural gas spot prices any better than what would be predicted by a random walk model. This result has important implications for many financial analysts and policy institutions that have used commodity futures prices to predict movements in spot prices. The answer to the second question is that when we apply a unit root test that allows for heteroskedasticity and two structural breaks, natural gas spot and futures prices are predictable. We then simulate a contrarian trading strategy for spot and futures prices to show under what circumstances trading in spot and futures prices are also profitable. The results point to the need to accommodate heteroskedasticity when applying unit root tests to model energy spot and futures prices with high-frequency data, such as daily data.