Direct Investment Liberalization,Commodity Trade and Income Distribution: What Can the WTO do?

This paper analyzes a model of two-way movement of physical capital, and examines the effects of direct investment liberalization on resource allocation, income distribution and commodity trade. If either country or both countries liberalizes investment under exogenously given commodity prices, some factor owners in a country will gain but some others will lose. If capital movement affects commodity prices, all factor owners in a country may be better off after multilateral investment liberalization. In these cases, it will be much easier for the home country to sign an agreement liberalizing investment flows.     

Endogenous human capital accumulation, comparative advantage and direct vs. indirect redistribution

Recently, several papers have reexamined the so-called production efficiency theorem and the Atkinson and Stiglitz theorem on commodity taxes in the optimal taxation literature. Naito [J. Public Econ. 71 (1999) 65] showed that indirect redistribution through production distortion or consumption distortion can Pareto-improve welfare and that the two theorems do not necessarily hold when different factors are imperfect substitutes and factor prices are endogenous. On the other hand, Saez J. Public Econ. (2002) forthcoming argued that in the long run, where human capital accumulation is endogenous, the two theorems are still valid. This paper develops reasonable alternative models where individuals accumulate human capital based on their comparative advantage. The present paper shows that the production efficiency theorem is not necessarily valid and that indirect redistribution from the able to the less able such as tariffs and production subsidies can increase efficiency even when skill accumulation is endogenous.     

Output/Endowment and Commodity/Factor Price Relationships and Welfare in a Multilateral Trade Model with Partial Factor Mobility

A multilateral model of trade with both commodity flows and partial mobility of factor flows is set up. This model is used to develop factor endowment/output relationships as well as commodity/factor price relationships. Welfare consequences of these parametric shifts are examined. The model is built on the customs union framework which involves three countries and both commodity and factor flows. Owing to spillover effects in multilateral trade models, many nontraditional results are obtained. Many developed countries accept skilled and unskilled migrants from other countries. These migrants are generally accepted on a quota system. Moreover, it has been established that an increase in the migrant quota in the presence of factor mobility may raise or lower the output and welfare in the country not receiving migrants. In fact it is shown that the non‐migrant receiving country could be immiserized due to loss of capital. The main message of this paper is that in a multilateral trade framework there exist international spillover effects which must be taken into consideration in national policymaking.     

Pension design when fertility fluctuates: The role of education and capital mobility

This study compares alternative designs of an unfunded pension system. Convex combinations between a fixed contribution rate and a fixed benefit rate are considered. The objective is to maximize the expected ex ante welfare under stochastic fertility. The model is a three-period CGE framework where the financing of education and effects on factor prices are accounted for. Factor prices depend on the degree of capital mobility. For low degrees of capital mobility, it is optimal to have a fixed benefit rate in the pension system. But for the small open economy, a fixed contribution rate is optimal if the education system has a fixed benefit rate. In this case individuals in the small open economy are unaffected by fertility fluctuations.     

Proof of global stability,transitional dynamics,and international capital flows in a two-country model of innovation and growth

Global stability properties of dynamic two-country models can be easily studied in the case of perfect international capital flows. With internationally constant relative productivities, balanced-growth path values for factor prices will hold on any path leading to the balanced-growth path unless one country experiences a period of no innovation. Innovation rates converge in the case of perfect international knowledge spillovers but long-run consumption levels and trade patterns are path-dependent. GDP per capita is predicted to converge slowly despite the presence of perfect international capital markets and no explicit inclusion of adjustment costs. The trade balance of the rich country is initially positive but after some time turns into a deficit.     

Empirical evidence for trends in capital markets

The random walk hypothesis of price formation in capital markets is tested against a price-trend hypothesis, using a new test statistic. Empirical results prove that commodity and currency prices are not random but exhibit price-trend behaviour.     

Models of employment and income distribution

A compact form of the Taylor/Lysy model is presented. It consists of the commodity and factor price frontiers, the saving-investment equilibrium condition and the neoclassical relationship between relative factor prices and the capital intensity. Such compact form is underdetermined. Different ‘closure rules’ give rise to different equilibria, each with its own comparative static properties. The models resulting from a few simple ‘closure rules’ are examined, starting with the full employment, flexible price model, with accumulation of capital determined by available savings. In all cases, capital is fully utilized and financial assets are ignored.     

Survival and efficiency curves for capital and the time-age-profile of vintage prices

The decline in the service flow from a stock of capital goods with age, due to the physical retirement of capital units and to the gradual loss of efficiency of each unit remaining, can be described by survival curves and efficiency curves. The paper reconsiders the relationship between these curves and the vintage prices of capital under neo-classical assumptions about perfect second hand markets and malleability, using duality between quantites and prices. Three examples with parametric survival and efficiency curves are presented. Concavity of the survival and efficiency curves may be compatible with convexity of the age-price profile. This approach is contrasted with the frequently cited Hulten-Wykoff approach. Empirical illustrations, focusing on the cenvexity/concavity issue, are given.     

The Emergence of the Law of Value in a Dynamic Simple Commodity Economy

Abstract

A dynamic computational model of a simple commodity economy is examined and a theory of the relationship between commodity values, market prices and the efficient division of social labour is developed. The main conclusions are: (i) the labour value of a commodity is an attractor for its market price; (ii) market prices are error signals that function to allocate the available social labour between sectors of production; and (iii) the tendency of prices to approach labour values is the monetary expression of the tendency of a simple commodity economy to allocate social labour efficiently. The model demonstrates that, in the special case of simple commodity production, Marx's law of value can naturally emerge from multiple local exchanges and operate ‘behind the backs’ of actors solely via money flows that place budget constraints on their local evaluations of commodity prices, which are otherwise subjective and unconstrained.     

Variable labour supply, specialisation-based external economies, and capital inflow

This paper examines the impact of exogenous capital inflow on prices, production, labour supply, and welfare in the presence of specialisation-based externalities. The paper utilises a simple model of an economy that produces one-final good by means of capital, labour, and a large number of varieties of an intermediate good. The intermediate good is produced by means of capital and labour. The supply of capital is exogenous but the supply of labour is endogenous. The presence of internal economies of scale in the intermediate good industry gives rise to specialisation-based external economies in the production of the final good. Perfect competition prevails in the final good industry whereas the intermediate good industry operates under Chamberlinian monopolistic competition. It is shown that exogenous capital inflow decreases labour supply and increases welfare only if the elasticity of substitution between leisure and the final good is equal to or less than unity. The paper also shows that, if trade opens up between two otherwise similar economies, a capital rich country would be a net importer of varieties of the intermediate good.     

Jointness In Production and Factor-Price Equalization *

This paper argues that the presence of activities which yield outputs jointly does not damage the case for factor-price equalization. the crucial condition for equalization is similar to that in the no-joint production case: the number of common activities with independent input vectors that are actively used in both countries at least match the number of factors, and factor endowments lie sufficiently close. Indeed, joint production may increase the range of commodity prices for which factor prices are equalized by commodity trade.     

Emigration and welfare in an economy with foreign capital

Discussion of the brain drain problem in the 1970s sparked considerable theoretical research upon the effects of emigration. In many cases, it has been determined that emigration reduces the level of welfare of the remaining residents in the source country, regardless of whether or not human capital is exported. In an economy producing traded and non-traded goods. Rivera-Batiz demonstrated that the level of welfare of the remaining residents declines as a consequence of emigration or at most remains unchanged. This paper generalizes the Rivera-Batiz model in another direction to examine the effects of emigration upon the welfare of remaining residents when foreign capital is employed in the economy. In contrast to other earlier studies, it is found that emigration improves the welfare of remaining residents if both they and the migrants have identical preferences and factor endowments. The author also compares the welfare implications of remittance flows back to the source country when they are used to finance consumption and when they are used to finance capital accumulation.     

Return migration, human capital accumulation and the brain drain

In this paper we present a model that explains migrations as decisions that respond to where human capital can be acquired more efficiently, and where the return to human capital is highest. The basic framework is a dynamic Roy model in which a worker possesses two distinct skills that can be augmented by learning by doing. There are different implicit prices, in different countries and different rates of skill accumulation. Our analysis contributes to the literature on the selection of immigrants and return migrants by offering a richer framework that may help to accommodate selection of emigrants and return migrants that are not immediately compatible with the one-dimensional skill model. Our analysis also has implications for the debate on brain drain and brain gain. In the two skills model presented here, return migration can lead to a mitigation of the brain drain, or even the creation of a “brain gain”, where those who return bring the home country augmented local skills.     

The excise tax effects of the property tax

This paper constructs a theory of how differences across regions in property tax rates affect product prices and factor prices. For a model where labor and capital are perfectly mobile between regions, it is shown that consumers residing in different regions face the same nontraded good prices, even when property tax rates differ across regions.     

WEIGHTED COUNTRY PRODUCT DUMMY VARIABLE REGRESSIONS AND INDEX NUMBER FORMULAE

The article considers a very simple type of hedonic regression model where the only characteristic of a commodity is the commodity itself. This regression model is known as the country product dummy method for calculating country price parities in the context of making international comparisons. The paper considers only the two country or two period case and introduces value or quantity weights into the regression. The resulting measures of overall price change between the two countries or time periods are compared to traditional bilateral index number formulae. It is shown how the Geary Khamis, Walsh and Törnqvist price indexes can be obtained as special cases of this framework.     

Earnings functions: beyond human capital

Taking a short-run view of the labour market, where individuals with given levels of education have to be matched with jobs differing in level of complexity and difficulty, wages are related to education and job levels. In a sample of some 13 000 observations, controlling for age, experience and sex, a model emphasizing both sides of the allocation process is favoured over the simple human capital view that ignores allocation once education is taken care of. It is claimed that the long-run human capital model can fruitfully be expanded with this short-run allocation structure. The empirical results measure the differences in earnings for individuals with given education working at different job levels, and shows them to be substantial. The relevance of adding job levels to the explanatory variables is illustrated with the case of female earnings discrimination and with differences in age–earnings profiles between general and vocational education.     

Global capital markets,housing prices,and partisan fiscal policies

In recent years, global imbalances have channeled the excess savings of surplus countries toward the real estate markets of deficit countries. By consequence, the deficit countries that attracted lots of foreign capital experienced large run‐ups in house prices, whereas most surplus countries that exported capital exhibited flat or slow house price growth. We first use new house price data and a novel instrumental variable design to show the causal relationship between housing prices and capital inflows, particularly through debt bonanzas. We then argue that international capital flows affect the fiscal policy preferences of both voters and political parties by way of their impact on housing prices. Where capital inflows are large and housing prices are rising, we expect voters to respond by demanding both lower taxes and less publicly‐provided social insurance because rising house prices allow homeowners to self‐insure against income loss. In contrast, declining house prices produce greater demands for social insurance, particularly among those most exposed to housing market risk. We present evidence from two cross‐national surveys that supports these claims, as well as a “before and after” analysis of the housing crash in Eastern Europe. We also show that the connection between house prices and social policy also manifests itself in government spending outcomes, mediated by partisan control.     

Factor Accumulation and Trade: Dynamic Comparative Advantage with Endogenous Physical and Human Capital*

This article develops a two‐country endogenous growth model with accumulation of both physical and human capital. We establish the existence of two‐country balanced growth equilibria with physical and human capital in which a static and dynamic version of the Heckscher–Ohlin (HO) hypothesis hold true. We also show the existence of unbalanced growth equilibria in which the static and dynamic HO hypotheses can be violated. The multiplicity of paths with international trade emerge as a result of the intertemporal no‐arbitrage condition when factor prices are equalized across countries.     

Environmental capital flight and pollution tax

This paper analyzes the impacts of a production pollution tax on environmental capital flight and national product in a two-country static general equilibrium model with two-way foreign investment. It is assumed that the capital input in both countries is a composite good of domestic and imported capital. And pollution is assumed to originate in the production process. The productivity of capital in each country is negatively (or positively) related to the worldwide aggregate emissions.The analysis shows that when a domestic pollution tax is levied, domestic capital outflows increase and foreign capital inflows decrease for sufficiently high elasticities of substitution between labor (immobile input) and capital (mobile input) in both countries. Moreover, with negative transnational externalities, increases of a domestic pollution tax reduce domestic production and increase foreign production. The difficulty of substitution between immobile and mobile inputs hinders the optimal allocation of worldwide capital and national product. In this paper, the optimal pollution tax is based on global welfare maximization, not on global income maximization, taking into consideration the impact of income change on individual welfare. Therefore, an optimal pollution tax in the developing country should be lower for a given rate of pollution.     

Breaks in the chain of comparative advantage

The chain proposition of comparative advantage states that when factor prices differ between two countries producing many products with two factors, every export of the capital abundant country would be more capital intensive than any of its imports. The present note points out that an economy has the option to break the chain to reach full employment if its factor endowment is not spanned by the production cone of the more intensive products.