论近期我国的价格总水平波动与经济增长

价格总水平波动是世界各国政府对宏观经济运行机制调控的重要目标之一。在我国社会主义市场经济体制条件下,价格总水平的波动直接影响了市场供求关系的变化,进而对社会总供给与总需求产生重要影响,随之会影响到经济增长的速度、规模和质量。中国政府在“九五”计划中明确将价格总水平列为宏观调控的目标之一,“十五”期间基本保持了价格总水平的稳定,2005年是“十五”计划的最后一年,当前党中央提出制定国民经济和社会发展第十一个五年规划的建议,我们每一个研究领域的成员都面临着新的任务和挑战。如何在关键的“十一五”时期,能够继续保持…     

粤市场价格调控联席会议：确保稳定物价措施落实到位

为积极推进市场价格调控监管工作,保持价格总水平基本稳定,根据《国务院关于稳定消费价格总水平保障群众基本生活的通知》精神和省政府《关于贯彻落实国务院部署稳定消费价格总水平保障群众基本生活的通知》的要求，     

对当前加强价格总水平调控工作的思考

价格总水平是指一定时期内社会全部商品的价格动态的综合,是一定时期内各种商品价格的平均水平。保持价格总水平的基本稳定既是当前宏观经济调控的首要任务,也是政府价格主管部门职责的重中之重。面对复杂多变的价格形势,我们要立足本职,整合资源,整治市场,整顿队伍,进一步落实价格总水平调控的各项措施,不断增强调控能力建设,为经济社会的又好又快发展提供良好的价格环境。     

“十五”时期广东城镇居民收支稳步增长

“十五”时期,我省坚持以发展为主题,以调整产业结构为主线,以提高人民生活水平为出发点和归宿,以经济协调发展为目标的基本方针,国民经济保持快速稳定发展。全省城镇居民收入水平和生活质量进一步提高,人均可支配收入年均递增8.6%,人均消费性支出年均增长8.1%,居民消费结构进一步趋向优化。收入稳定提高,收入来源多元化“十五”时期,随着产业结构的不断优化和调整,我省高度重视发展优势产业,放手发展非公有制经济,努力增加就业岗位,拓展了城镇的就业渠道,为城镇居民就业和增收创造了条件,随着人们就业观念的转变、居民财产投资意识的增强,…     

经贸信息

▲ 国家统计局局长朱之鑫日前预测，综合考虑国内外供求关系和价格总水平运行的各种因素，预计今年我国居民消费价格总水平仍将保持基本稳定, 但不排除由于世界经济形势的变化和世界原油价格的上涨，有可能带来的一些变动因素。国家统计局2月21日发布的统计数据显示，１月份全国居民消费价格总水平同比上涨0.4%，其中城市上涨0.4%，农村上涨0.3%。▲ 春节后市场开市后，中国建材市场价格走势基本以冲高后趋稳为主，唯有华东市场出现回落，业内人士认为，近两个月建材市场价格仍将在高位运行，甚至会继续小幅上升。▲ 在食品、药品等多个领域…     

西藏“十五”建设成就

“十五”期间,在中央的关心和全国的大力支援下,西藏自治区党委.政府团结带领广大干部群众,坚持中央关于新时期西藏工作指导思想不动摇,全面贯彻落实科学发展观,抓住机遇,开拓创新,艰苦奋斗,全面完成了“十五”计划目标,已经形成加快发展和持续稳定的良好局面,正处于历史上发展和稳定的最好时期,正在从加快发展走向跨越式发展,从基本稳定走向长治久安,这为“十一五”时期发展和稳定奠定了坚实基础。全区生产总值由2000年的117亿元,增加到2005年的250.4亿元,连续5年保持12%以上的增长速度。人均生产总值2005年突破1000美元。地方财政一般预算…     

2004年广东省物价局工作安排

2004年我省价格工作的总体要求:以邓小平理论、“三个代表”重要思想为指导,加强价格监测调控,完善价格应急机制,努力保持价格总水平基本稳定;强化市场价格监管,规范市场价格行为;继续深化价格改革,完善价格形成机制;坚持以人为本,着力解决好关系群众切身利益的价格问题;统筹兼顾,在全面、协调和可持续发展中更好地发挥价格工作的职能作用。     

论劳动生产率与价格总水平的关系

作者认为，虽然各国政府都力图保持价格总水平的稳定，而且随着劳动生产率的提高，商品价值量也不断降低，但商品价格总水平并没有降低，而且还有不断上升的趋势。这是因为纸币流通为价格总水平上涨提供了可能，同时，普遍降低价格总水平不利于经济的发展。如果各国政府都把稳定价格总水平作为价格管理目标，能否实现以及在多大程度上实现这一目标．主要取决于该国的经济实力。价格总水平的上涨是国家为实现其职能所付出的代价。     

把稳定价格总水平放在更加突出的位置

2010年中央经济工作会议提出,加强和改善宏观调控,保持经济平稳健康运行。明年宏观经济政策的基本取向要积极稳健、审慎灵活,重点是更加积极稳妥地处理好保持经济平稳较快发展、调整经济结构、管理通胀预期的关系,加快推进经济结构战略性调整,把稳定价格总水平放在更加突出的位置,     

“十五”计划开局良好

２００１年，我国国内生产总值预计比２０００年增长７．４％，保持了快增长高效益低通胀的良好态势，“十五”计划开局良好。 我国国民经济“十五” 计划开局良好的主要表现是：预计全年ＧＤＰ完成９６４５０亿元，比２０００年增长７．４％。总体经济效益不断改善。１至１０月，工业企业完成利润总额３６４７亿元，同比增长９．３％。财政增收２５６８亿元。市场物价基本稳定，全年居民消费价格总水平预计上涨 １％。城镇居民人均可支配收入实际增长７％左右，农民人均纯收入实际增长超过４％。城镇登记失业率可控制在４％以内。国际收支…     

Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective

This study examines the sensitivity of the Spanish stock market at the industry level to movements in oil prices over the period 1993–2010, paying special attention to the presence of endogenously determined structural changes in the relationship between oil price changes and industry equity returns. The empirical results show that the degree of oil price exposure of Spanish industries is rather limited, although significant differences are found across industries. The oil price sensitivity is very weak in the 1990s, a period of fairly stable and low oil prices. Instead, the link between crude oil and stock prices seems to have increased during the 2000s, becoming primarily positive. This evidence highlights the key role played by aggregate demand-side oil price shocks associated with the global real economic activity in the link between oil price fluctuations and the Spanish stock market.     

Quality-corrected price indices: the case of the Dutch new passenger car market, 1990–1999

Market dynamics and technological developments constitute a major challenge to the proper measurement of the price evolution of durable goods. In this study, hedonic methods are used to estimate quality-corrected price indices of new passenger cars in the Netherlands, 1990–1999. Use is made of a huge set of price, quantity and quality information about 11,000 car models, obtained from different sources. During the observation period the nominal price level of all available car models increased about 20% on average, while the shares of car models with airbags, tinted glass and power steering increased from almost nothing to about 90%. Matched model price indices and the official CPI for new passenger cars, which partially account for quality-adjustments, estimate the price increase to be equal to 10.6–14.2% respectively 11.2% for the 1990–1999 period. By contrast, the hedonic Fisher-like price indices based on the preferred annually estimated brand-weighted semi-log hedonic model, lead to price changes varying from +?2.3% to ??3.4% (depending on the choice of weight variable, and the use of fixed or varying reference periods in the index construction) and thereby fall 8.9 to 14.6 percentage points below the official figures, over the period 1990–1999. The pooled adjacent-years model holds an intermediate position with a predicted quality-corrected price decrease of 1.8% over the observation period, which is 13.0 points below the CPI.     

Petrol prices,oil price rises and oil price falls: some evidence for the UK since 1972

This paper examines the relationship between retail petrol prices, excise duties and crude oil prices in the UK over the period 1973–1988. The existence of a stable relationship between the petrol price, level of excise duty and spot oil price is confirmed through use of the cointegration approach. Although the speed of reaction of petrol prices to changes in the crude price depends on whether crude prices are rising or falling, any asymmetry in the pricing response is virtually absent after an adjustment period of only four months.     

Impacts of China's crash on Asia-Pacific financial integration: Volatility interdependence,information transmission and market co-movement

This paper examines the price and volatility dynamics between China and major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific, investigating the effects of the Chinese stock market crash (2015–2016) for the first time. Employing the Bayesian VAR and BEKK GARCH, we observe that price and volatility spillover behaviours are different during the stable and stress periods. Particularly, price spillovers from China to other regional markets are more significant during a bullish period, showing that ‘good news’ emanating from China has strong impacts on its neighbours during better market condition. In the turbulent period, we observe strong shock spillover effects and enhanced volatility spillovers from China to most Asia-Pacific stock markets. This is because China, as an important trading partner and strategic financial centre shows to exert significant influence on the Asia-Pacific region through various economic channels. We also find that the Asia-Pacific stock markets spill over their shocks to China during the crisis, indicating that China is becoming more integrated with the regional financial markets.     

Price Clustering of Chinese IPOs: The Impact of Regulation,Cultural Factors,and Negotiation

During June 2009–May 2012, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) suspended window guidance that limits issue prices. Using this regime change as a natural experiment, we test the combined effects of regulation, culture, and negotiation on price clustering of Chinese IPOs. The proportion of IPOs priced on round number 0 increases from 42.58% during sample periods with window guidance to 79.81% during sample period without window guidance, a level similar to that reported in developed markets . Moreover, we document a connection between whole CNY pricing of Chinese IPOs and several uncertainty measures including a unique uncertainty proxy defined as the time gap between the IPO date and the listing date. Second to the round number 0, issuing firms favour number 8 that associates with fortune, particularly during sample periods with window guidance. Our findings that price restrictions limit the power of negotiations but not the influence of cultural factors contributing to the understanding of price formation process.     

The firm demand for liquid assets in an inflationary environment

Measures of inflation and the price level are added to the standard model of liquid asset demand and estimated with cross-section data on Brazilian manufacturing firms over a four-year period characterized by substantial inflation (annual rates of 19, 23, 34 and 35%). Results indicate that economies of scale exist in a model that is stable over time. Interest rates have a strong and elastic impact on liquid asset demand when inflation is explicitly controlled for although this result is not consistent across all subsets of data used. The usual assumption of a unitary price level elasticity of liquid asset demand is rejected and firms appear to conserve on liquid asset holdings as the rate of inflation increases suggesting more careful management of payments flows. Some of these findings contradict those of Ungar and Zilberfarb (1980). There are also some difference in behaviour across ownership groups: Brazilian firms do not exhibit economies of scale while multinationals do; and Brazilian firms adjust actual to desired balances faster than multinational firms.     

The effects of indexation of wage contracts on macro-economic stability

The paper develops a simple analytical framework in which the shortrun affects of wage indexation on the dynamic stability of inflation can be analyzed. It consists of a unlonized labor market faced by a competitive demand. Without indexation, the wage contract is based upon the union's prediction of the price level during the period of the contract. With indexation, the same objective is achieved by contracting only once at some initial period, subject to the stipulation that the nominal wage is linked to the price level. The main result is that when the demand for money is sensitive to changes in the expected rate of inflation, nominal variables like prices and wages are more likely to yield an unstable dynamic response with wage indexation, thus endangering the monetary system.     

财政赤字、通货膨胀与债务危机——陈云对赤字财政的有关思想及其现实启示

"坚决不打赤字财政",是陈云一贯而鲜明的主张,因为在他看来,财政赤字与通货膨胀密不可分。建国初期,我国人民饱受通货膨胀之苦,而"币值下跌、物价上涨的主要原因,是政府的财政赤字庞大"。因此,陈云力主财政安排留有余地,尽量避免出现赤字,尤其忌讳将赤字用于投资。在这一思想的主导下,计划经济时期我国财政预算保持平衡,物价基本稳定。新时期以来,我国经济体制和市场环境发生重大变化,财政赤字渐成常态,相应地物价亦呈不断上涨趋势。尽管近年来连年出现的财政赤字主要依靠发行公共债务来弥补,但这终究不是长久之计,当下的欧债危机警醒了我们,陈云提出的"建设规模的大小必须和国家财力物力相适应"是一条不变的真理。     

The Determinants of Sticky Prices and Sticky Plans: Evidence from German Business Survey Data

So far, there is no consensus on the price adjustment determinants in the empirical literature. Analyzing a novel firm‐level business survey data set, we provide new insights on the price setting behavior of German retailers during a low inflation period. Relating the probability of both price and pricing plan adjustment to time‐ and state‐dependent variables, we find that state‐dependence is important; the macroeconomic environment as well as the firm‐specific condition significantly determines the timing of both actual price changes and pricing plan adjustments. Moreover, input cost changes are important determinants of price setting. Finally, price increases respond more strongly to cost shocks compared to price decreases.     

URBAN POVERTY IN CHINA AND ITS CONTRIBUTING FACTORS, 1986–2000

Food price increases and the introduction of radical social welfare and enterprise reforms during the 1990s generated significant changes in the lives of urban households in China. During this period urban poverty increased considerably. This paper uses household level data from 1986 to 2000 to examine what determines whether households fall below the poverty line over this period and investigates how the impact of these determinants has changed through time. We find that large households and households with more nonworking members are more likely to be poor, suggesting that perhaps the change from the old implicit price subsidies, based on household size, to an explicit income subsidy, based on employment, has worsened the position of large families. Further investigation into regional poverty variation indicates that over the 1986–93 period food price increases were also a major contributing factor. Between 1994 and 2000 the worsening of the economic situation of state sector employees contributed to the poverty increase.