延迟退休：个人理性与政府决策的冲突与平衡

通过个人退休决策和养老保险基金平衡模型,文章分析个人和政府的决策差异,首次将Leslie人口模型引入养老保险基金平衡公式,修正养老保险制度抚养比,以测算渐进式延迟退休时间表对养老保险基金缺口的影响。模型结果表明：在低利率、低初始就业年龄的现实条件下,强制延迟退休会造成个人福利损失,政策执行存在阻力。然而,延迟退休政策势在必行,是应对养老保险基金缺口的现实选择。面对决策冲突,政府应首先尽快统一退休年龄,以此为改革突破口,采取多种配套措施逐步推进退休年龄改革。     

The Impact of an Increase in the Legal Retirement Age on the Effective Retirement Age

We analyze the impact of an increase in the legal retirement age on the effective retirement age in the Netherlands. We do this by means of a dynamic programming model for the retirement behavior of singles. The model is applied to new administrative data that contain very accurate and detailed information on individual incomes and occupational pension entitlements. Our model is able to capture the main patterns observed in the data. We observe that as individuals get older their labor supply declines considerably and this varies by age and gender. We simulate the current pension reform which aims at gradually increasing the legal retirement age from 65 to 67 and a hypothetical reform that immediately increases the retirement age to 67. The simulation results show a small impact on the effective retirement age for the first reform and a bigger impact for the second reform. Respectively, individuals postpone their retirement by \(<\) 1 month and 7 months on average; while differences across individuals mainly depend on their gender and health status.     

Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence From a Policy Reform

In the early 1990s the Dutch labour unions and employer organisations agreed to transform the generous and actuarially unfair early retirement (ER) schemes into less generous and actuarially fair schemes that reward individuals for postponing retirement. The starting dates of these new ER programs varied by industry sector. In this study, we exploit this variation in starting dates to estimate the causal impact of the policy reform on early retirement behaviour. We use a large administrative dataset, the Dutch Income Panel 1989–2000, to estimate hazard rate models for the retirement age. We conclude that the policy reform has indeed induced workers to postpone retirement. Both the wealth effect (lower ER wealth) and the substitution effect (lower implicit taxes on retirement postponement) are significant, the latter being more substantial.     

Retirement and health: Evidence from China

One typical feature of China's pension system is that retirement is mandatory. By exploiting the exogenous change created by this mandatory retirement policy, we use the mandatory retirement age as an instrument for retirement status to examine the effect of retirement on individual health using data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). Our main finding is that the probability of “fair” or “poor” self-reported health among white-collar workers decreases by 34 percentage point after retirement. This result is generally robust to different model specifications, alternative measures of health, and different subsamples. In addition, we deliver evidence that increased health-related exercises and the cultivation of a better lifestyle are two possible channels through which retirement affects health.     

Differentiating Indexation in Dutch Pension Funds

Funded social security programs are particularly vulnerable to economic and financial market shocks. As a consequence of the recent crisis, a large fraction of the Dutch pension funds had to submit restoration plans for the recovery of their buffers. Such plans will have to rely primarily on a mix of reduced benefit indexation and increased pension contributions. Hence, a discussion has emerged whether indexation should be differentiated across the various groups of participants in a pension fund. We investigate this issue numerically, developing an applied many-generation small open-economy OLG model with heterogeneous agents. The pension system consists of a first-pillar PAYG component and a second pillar with a pension fund. In our stochastic simulations, we hit the economy with a variety of unexpected demographic, economic and financial shocks. We compare uniform indexation of pension rights across all fund participants with alternatives such as status-contingent indexation in which pensions are protected against price inflation. While the aggregate welfare consequences are small, group-specific consequences are more substantial with the workers and future born losing and retirees benefitting from a shift away from uniform indexation. The exception is a scheme which links indexation directly to the fund’s asset performance. Under this scheme the retired benefit without other groups losing. The welfare effects are primarily the result of systematic welfare redistributions rather than of shifts in the benefits of risk sharing. Contribution rates always have to rise substantially from their initial levels to maintain the system’s sustainability. An increase in the retirement age that leaves existing pension rights untouched does little to avoid this rise with its adverse labour market consequences.     

The Effect of Pension Plan Type on Retirement Age: Distinguishing Plan Incentives from Career Length Preferences

This study uses the Retirement Confidence Survey of College and University Faculty, 2005,to examine the impact of pension plan incentives on retirement age and to understand how the widespread transition from defined benefit (DB) to defined contribution (DC) plans has affected workers. Incentives stemming from differences in pension wealth accrual patterns between DB and DC plans directly induce up to a one‐year difference in expected retirement age and are indirectly responsible for up to a two‐year difference due to workers sorting into plans based on preferences over career length. The results imply that failing to account for worker sorting leads to an overestimation of the transition's effect on the average retirement age of Americans. In addition, the findings suggest that individuals choose retirement plans to diversify retirement income, which has implications for Social Security reform.     

THE EFFECT OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN OLD AGE PENSION ON LABOUR SUPPLY OF THE ELDERLY

In this paper, we estimate the effect of the means tested South African Old Age Pension on labour supply amongst the elderly African subpopulation in South Africa. We find significant decreases in employment rates and labour supply. Those who remain employed beyond the pensionable age are more likely to work in jobs with flexible hours of work, and work even fewer hours than people in similar jobs who are not pension age‐eligible. Our results suggest that governments do need to consider the labour supply related incentives provided via its various welfare programmes.     

Population Ageing and Pension System Reform in China: A Computable Overlapping-Generations General Equilibrium Model Analysis

Over the next 50 years, China will face an increase of its old-age population by approximately three times. Such a demographic change may result in a large increase of pension payments, which would require a significant rise in the pension contribution rate. This also implies important intergenerational redistribution issues and may even harm living standards as a whole. This paper analyses for China the economic impact of an ageing population by means of a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generations structure. The paper explores the effect on the social security system and economic development of China under alternative scenarios for the benefit rates on pensions, retirement age and technological progress. Our research indicates that a pension reform plus positive technological progress can compensate for the menace of a decline in living standards for both seniors and working generations.     

中国妇女退休年龄的法经济学分析

从退休前后相对收入变化的角度来看，我国养老保险制度中有关男女职工不同退休年龄的规定就总体来说是对女性不利的。除部分低收入者外，大部分女职工的养老金相对水平会因早退休而下降。退休年龄的差异使得男女职工退休前的收入差距在退休后进一步扩大，并且也造成人力资本的巨大浪费。为了改变这种不合理现象，需要重新审视我国的退休政策，提高女性退休年龄，把男女同龄退休纳入退休和养老保险制度改革的综舍考虑之中；推行弹性退休制度具有实现老年人力资源的开发利用、有助于养老保险的基金平衡等优势。     

How Sensitive are Individual Retirement Expectations to Raising the Retirement Age?

This paper investigates the causal effects of the announcement of an increase in the statutory pension age on employee retirement expectations. In June 2010, the Dutch government signed a new pension agreement with the employer and employee organizations that entailed an increase in the statutory pension age from 65 currently to 66 in 2020 for all inhabitants born after 1954. Given the expected increase in average life expectancy, it was also decided that in 2025 the pension age would be further increased to 67 for those born after 1959. This new pension agreement received huge media coverage. Using representative matched administrative and survey data of public sector employees, we find that the proposed policy reform increased the expected retirement age by 3.6 months for employees born between 1954 and 1959 and by 10.8 months for those born after 1959. This increase is reflected in a clear shift in the retirement peak from age 65 to ages 66 and 67 for the respective treated cohorts. Men respond less strongly to the policy reform than women, but within couples we find no evidence that the retirement expectations of one spouse are affected by an increase in the statutory pension age of the other. Furthermore, we show that treatment effects are largely driven by highly educated individuals but are lower for employees whose job involves physically demanding tasks or managerial and supervisory tasks.     

我国事业单位养老金替代率测算及改革思路探讨

事业单位养老保险制度改革的核心是建立与企业养老保险框架相互衔接的制度,养老金替代率水平是决定改革成败的关键。论文通过构建保险精算模型,在给定条件下,模拟测算了视同缴费水平、过渡性养老金调节系数和退休年龄等对基本养老保险替代率的影响。结果表明,在现有政策框架下,高收入人群的养老金替代率明显偏低,而低收入者的养老金替代率又过高,其中代表性参保人的养老金替代率仅为73%,而低收入者的替代率可能高达156%。因此,适当提高视同缴费水平,合理设定过渡性养老金,适当延长退休年龄和建立多渠道的养老保险补充渠道,是我国事业单位养老社会化的关键。     

基于人口老龄化背景下的社会保障研究

2010年11月,全国进行了第六次全国性的人口普查,初步调查数据显示:我国已经步入老年社会,而且人口老龄化趋势正在加速。然而,与该消息一同报道出来的是:我国养老保险金存在着若干亿元的巨大亏空。在法国,萨科奇政府推行的养老改革计划,推迟了法国工人的退休年龄和全额领取养老金的年龄,引发了大规模的罢工,造成极大地动荡。综合这些隐私,我国的人口老龄化和养老保险金供求平衡的矛盾再次被社会广泛关注。本文通过对该问题细致深入的分析,试图对我国解决该矛盾提出一些可行的办法和措施。     

企业职工延长退休年龄影响因素实证研究—以W市为例

企业职工作为重要的社会组成元素以及政策的接受者，延迟退休政策的制定、实施毫无疑问需要广泛征求他们的意见。本研究以W市作为调查基地，在文献研究、社会调查与深度访谈三者相结合并借助SPSS分析工具充分论证的基础上得出了相关研究结论：一是W市企业职工延迟退休影响因子排序，强到弱排序依次为：健康、收入、工作满意度、周工作时长、工作性质、抚养子女负担、配偶状况、年龄、单位福利、单位性质、性别、受教育程度、公司职位、赡养老人负担、婚姻状况。二是影响因素与延迟退休的相互关系：(1)个人因素中，男性职工比女性职工更能够接受延迟退休。年龄与延迟退休成负相关的关系。已婚或未婚企业职工都不愿意接受延迟退休。不愿意延迟退休者中受教育程度与最大延迟退休年龄正相关。(2)单位因素中，企业性质为国有、集体或控股企业与外资企业比私营、民营企业的职工更愿意接受延迟退休。单位福利种类多并不能直接刺激到企业职工的延迟退休意愿，但在强制延迟退休时，享受福利种类越多与企业职工能够接受最大延迟退休年龄之间成正相关关系。公司职位与延迟退休之间没有严格的相关关系。(3)负担因素中，具有抚养子女负担和赡养老人负担与延迟退休成负相关。(4)经济因素中，低收入和高收入的个人以及家庭相对对于中层收入而言更不愿延迟退休。健康因素与延迟退休成负相关。(5)工作因中，周工作时长与工作满意度和延迟退休决策分别成负相关和正相关。体力劳动者比脑力劳动者不愿意延迟退休。最后，对W市研究延迟退休年龄有针对性的提出相关政策建议。     

French Retirement Reforms and Intragenerational Equity in Retirement Duration

As most developed countries, France has gone over the last 20 years through a process of pension system reforms, mainly aiming at increasing the average retirement age, through increasing the required number of contribution years or through postponing legal (minimal and/or normal) ages. Public debates over which lever should be preferred have been paramount in France, with concerns focusing on redistribution issues between high wage high life-expectancy and low-wage low life-expectancy workers. In this paper, we empirically address this issue by simulating the differentiated impacts of the past French reforms on average retirement ages across wage quartiles. Our simulations show that increasing the required duration criterion—as was done by the 1993 and 2003 reforms–have redistributive impact as regards retirement age, while increasing the normal age—as was done by the 2010 reform—has a counter-distributive impact. The redistributive impact on average of the required duration criterion however only holds thanks to the fact that disabled workers—most of them in the lowest wage quartile—are exempted from it. Last, increasing minimal age has ambiguous impacts according to gender: redistributive among women but counter-distributive among men.     

Gradual Retirement: Preferences and Limitations

In the traditional retirement scenario, individuals work full-time or part-time until a given age, and then stop working abruptly. From the individual’s point of view, it seems more attractive to have a smooth transition, with gradual retirement. In Sweden and other European countries, specific gradual retirement programs have been created in the past 20 years, first in combination with early retirement programs and later to increase labour market participation of older workers. This paper surveys the existing literature on gradual retirement in the US and Europe and analyzes the relevance of gradual retirement in the Netherlands as a tool to keep people employed longer.      

Employees who do not know their labour contract term and the implications for working conditions: Evidence from Japanese and Spanish microdata

In this paper, we analyse the relationship between employees who do not know the length of their labour contract (hereafter, DNK employees) and working conditions. In developed countries, labour standards regulations generally require employers to provide a labour contract with a clearly defined duration to protect the fundamental rights of workers. However, the data reveal that in the developed countries on which we focus, Japan and Spain, non-negligible proportions of employees, 8% and 11%, respectively, do not know the duration of their labour contracts. Utilizing 2012 data from the Employment Status Survey for Japan and the Economically Active Population Survey for Spain, we find that whether workers are ignorant of their contract term commonly depends on their human capital level. Women, single people, younger and older workers and less-educated workers are more likely not to know their labour contract duration. Compared with other employees, DNK employees are more dissatisfied with their current job, more likely to search for other jobs and less likely to seek more work in their current jobs. We find that DNK employees suffer from a wage penalty for non-standard status and have less access to job training, as occurs in Japan, and that specific attributes, such as immigrant status, tend to be closely related to DNK status, as occurs in Spain. Overall, DNK employment is related to poor working conditions, which indicates the importance of educating workers about labour laws to maintain the welfare of disadvantaged workers.     

延长退休年龄能提高社会养老保险基金的支付能力吗?

本文通过构建我国社会养老保险基金支付能力的精算模型,研究了延长退休年龄后,基金支付能力的变化情况。结果表明,延长退休年龄不一定能够增加养老保险基金的支付能力,因为延长退休年龄后,虽然缴费期限延长了,缴费收入增加了,但养老保险基金支出也增加了,最终结果就是不确定的,要受到很多因素的影响,包括利率、社会平均工资增长率、在职职工工资增长率、养老金增长率和死亡率分布等等。如果要通过延长退休年龄来提高养老保险基金的支付能力,应全面分析各种相关因素的共同作用,否则适得其反。     

延长退休年龄挤占就业岗位吗?——基于安徽省芜湖市的调查

随着经济发展,人们预期寿命的延长,中国人口老龄化问题也越来越突出,这在一定程度上给我国的社会保障制度带来了一系列影响。为缓解人口老龄化对于社会保障的压力,有学者提出延长退休年龄的设想。但延长退休年龄遭到了社会某些方面的质疑,主要顾虑是它会挤占当前的社会就业岗位。论文以安徽芜湖市为例,通过问卷调查方式对相关问题进行了实证检验,结果表明延长退休年龄并不会挤占社会就业,相反长期来看还会促进社会就业。     

Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Balanced-budget Reforms of Korea’s National Pension System

This paper evaluates the fiscal sustainability of the benchmark pension system in Korea, which will come into effect in 2028 following the 2007 pension reforms, and the welfare effects of pension reforms aimed at a balanced budget over the life cycle. To this end, we measure the lifetime pension deficit, i.e. the difference between total pension benefits and total pension contributions in an individual’s lifetime. We find that the benchmark pension system is expected to run an average lifetime deficit of 22.36 million won (approximately $22,360), and the current pension fund is unlikely to finance the sum of future deficits. The optimal pension reform for the zero average lifetime deficit reduces social welfare by as much as a 2.06% fall in consumption and is characterised with the contribution rate of 20.3% and an average replacement rate of 66.4%. These values are much higher than the respective benchmark values, 9% and 40%, because the increase in pension benefits, combined with the increase in pension contributions, can reduce the income inequality due to the progressivity of pension benefits and the proportionality of pension contributions.     

Pension reform with migration and mobile capital: is a Pareto improvement possible?

This paper shows that in a two-country two-overlapping-generations model with migration, capital mobility and an immobile production factor (land), a locally welfare-improving pension reform at the cost of the neighboring country is possible if land plays a minor role in production. Furthermore, differences in the size of the PAYG pension schemes between the countries distort the international allocation of labour and capital. As a result, a Pareto-improving pension reform is possible if countries employ PAYG pension schemes of different size, provided that a federal government exists that redistributes benefits and losses of the reform both intergenerationally and internationally.