Market shares analysis: The Case of French Tourism Demand

This paper examines the magnitudes and determinants of changes in destinations’ shares of a major tourist origin market. The Almost Ideal Demand System model is used to quantify the responsiveness of French tourism demand in Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom to changes in relative prices, exchange rates, tourists’ expenditure budget, and external events. The results indicate that effective price competitiveness is a key variable driving changes in market shares. Policymakers who wish to maintain their shares of the French market should pay particular attention to tourism pricing policies, as well as to improving the tourism offer.     

Modeling Tourist Flows to Indonesia and Malaysia

Summary

The purpose of this study was to examine the major factors that influence the flow patterns of tourists from six important tourist-generating countries to Indonesia and Malaysia. The primary determinants included in the demand models were income, prices, and time trend. Two models that employed different indicators for the price variable were estimated; one with exchange rates in addition to relative prices, whereas the other included only an exchange rate adjusted-relative price variable. Annual time-series data covering the period 1980 to 1997 were used for estimation. The results generally indicated that the factors provide reasonably good explanations for the demand for Indonesian and Malaysian tourism. The measure of thejoint effect of the changes in exchange rates and relative prices also seems to be a better indicator for the price variable for both destination countries. The study has important marketing implications for the tourism industries in Indonesia and Malaysia.     

Implications of a long-term increase in oil prices for tourism

It is expected that global oil prices will increase in the future. Assessing the overall economic impacts on tourism is difficult, as oil price rises will be concomitant with global changes in other commodity prices, exchange rates, and incomes. A general equilibrium perspective is therefore presented in this paper. The model couples a global general equilibrium model with a purpose-built CGE model of New Zealand, which focuses on describing tourism supply and demand in some detail. The results indicate a decrease in real gross national disposable income of 1.7% for a doubling of oil price and a 9% reduction in the real value of tourism exports. As a result of segment-specific price increases and differing income and exchange rate effects and elasticities, the reduction in demand for tourism in New Zealand by 18 segments differs substantially. The greatest reduction in demand is observed for tourists from the United Kingdom.     

Dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis of tourism demand for Singapore

The objective of this study is to investigate tourism demand for Singapore using heterogeneous dynamic panel estimation methods. A binary variable representing the operation of Integrated Resorts (IRs), as well as income and real exchange rate, are included as determinants of tourism demand growth. Using seasonally adjusted and actual/raw quarterly data of 16 origin countries, our study shows that the pooled mran group (PMG) estimator is able to provide consistent and efficient estimates of long-run relationships between tourism demand and the determinants. The PMG results show that the long-run income (price) elasticity is positively (negatively) significant, with an elasticities range between 0.915 and 3.05 (?0.275 and ?0.34). In addition, the study reveals that the IRs contribute to tourism demand growth, especially in attracting tourists from Asia. In the long term, tourism demand by the Asian markets is less income-sensitive than that of the non-Asian counterparts.     

Devaluation and US tourism expenditure in Mexico

Studies that investigate the factors affecting US tourism expenditures in Mexico generally regard relative prices in these countries as sensitive determinants. The findings of inelasticity of expenditures of American tourists with respect to prices in the Mexican interior and border in several studies published in the 1980s are debatable. This study evaluates the impact of recent peso devaluations by adjusting 1970–1982 US tourism expenditures by an index that combines the Consumer Price Index in dollars, the CPI in pesos, and the exchange rate. The results here clearly indicate that US expenditures in the interior and on the border are price sensitive and have a strong positive trend reaction to devaluation in both nominal and real terms. Border expenditures clearly exceed interior expenditures and are more sensitive to exchange rate changes than expenditures in interior Mexico.     

Measuring price elasticities of demand for outbound tourism using competitiveness indices

The real exchange rate (REX) has long been used as the proxy for prices in tourism demand models. However it has limitations, particularly when it comes to models of outbound tourism. As an alternative, a price competitiveness index (PCI) is developed and used as a proxy for prices in a model of outbound tourism from Australia. Results obtained show that while REX is statistically insignificant and yields a price elasticity of −0.002, PCI is significant and generates a price elasticity of −1.07. The results obtained show that PCI outperforms REX as the preferred price variable in modelling outbound demand on both theoretic and empirical grounds. Furthermore, this index can be used to monitor the inter-temporal competitiveness of a destination.     

Pooling international tourism in Western Europe

This paper examines potential improvements in measures of international travel demand elasticities by pooling cross sections and time series of travel receipts. International travel receipts for 18 European countries are pooled and estimates of elasticities with respect to income, exchange rates, relative prices, transport costs, and number of terrorism events are computed. Indexes are developed for the purpose of measuring and aggregating transport costs and terrorism. The results show that the responses to changes in these variables are significantly different across countries. When the countries are constrained to have the same elasticities, but the constants are allowed to be different, it is found that all variables affect tourism in the expected direction and are statistically significant.     

Transport infrastructure and tourism development

This paper investigates the significance of transport infrastructure as a factor in destination development, showing it to be part of the classical demand for international tourism functions. An application involving the island of Mauritius is presented, whereby total tourist arrivals are modeled. The findings show that tourists from Europe/America and Asia are particularly sensitive to the island’s transport infrastructure. Those from Europe/America are also sensitive to its nontransport infrastructure. Both types of infrastructure, as well as income of tourists, distance, and relative prices are important ingredients in their own respect in the tourism demand equation. Mauritius is an expanding destination, with the European and American markets being most promising.     

出境旅游需求的影响因素--兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同

根据微观经济学的需求理论,结合相关研究进展,文章构建了包括基本经济因素（收入和相对价格）、对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征、突发事件等变量在内的出境旅游需求模型,以74个国家/地区1995—2013年的数据为样本,分析了发达经济体和发展中经济体出境旅游需求影响因素的总体特征与异同。结果表明,收入和价格是影响出境旅游需求的决定性因素,对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征及突发事件等其他因素对出境旅游需求同样具有一定的影响。其中,收入、价格以及产业发展水平对发展中经济体出境旅游需求的影响作用相对更大,而对外开放度和人口统计特征（就业水平、年龄结构和受教育水平）对发达经济体出境旅游需求的影响更加显著。     

The convergence process in heritage tourism

The theoretical background behind heritage tourism is conventionally categorized in terms of two stages: the demand and supply side approaches. This has resulted in a fragmented and usually conflicting framework. The purpose of this paper is to devise a model, which will substantiate the existence of both a continuum and a lateral relationship between the contrasting theoretical approaches to heritage tourism. The value added proffered here stems from the incorporation of authenticity as a linking device in each of the two approaches, unifying them into a single theoretical paradigm. The role of authenticity as a contemporary marketing tool, on tourism motivation and the image of the attraction is shown to be pivotal.     

Measuring tourist judgment on service quality

This study measures tourist judgments on service quality in alpine ski resorts. An attribute based method was employed in order to estimate weighting schemes both for quality judgments across different tourism activity domains and different quality dimensions within winter resorts and to quantify an overall quality measure. A linear regression and Sirgy's congruity model of customer satisfaction/dissatisfaction were adopted. The results indicate that there exists a linear relationship between the overall quality measure and the partial judgments of each domain/dimension. This allows deciphering the relevance of different domains of tourism activity and quality dimensions within the process of making quality judgments.     

上海市入境旅游市场影响因素分析与预测——以德国、法国、英国、美国与泰国客源国为例

入境旅游是衡量一个国家知名度、影响力和旅游发展水平的主要因素,也是赚取外汇和旅游收入的重要路径。上海是外国游客入境重要的目的地,也是中国最大的入境游客中转站。文章分析了德国、法国、英国、美国、泰国五个上海主要入境旅游客源国2004年第一季度至2018年第三季度的数据,运用计量经济学方法建模,并实证分析了上海入境旅游需求的影响因素。研究表明,口碑效应、客源地的收入水平与上海入境旅游需求正相关;上海入境旅游具有较大的季节波动特点,冬夏两季入境游客数量减少;世博会对上海入境旅游拉动作用较大。同时,对德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年的旅游季度需求进行了预测,预测发现,德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年都有较大增长,特别是泰国市场的年均增长率达到4%。     

Residents' perceptions on tourism impacts

The limited explanatory research on residents' perceptions of tourism impacts has resulted in an underdeveloped theoretical orientation of research on this subject. This paper presents a social exchange process model as a theoretical basis for some understanding of why residents perceive tourism impacts positively or negatively. The model is based upon the concept of the exchange relation. Propositions are derived from the model to test the relationships between the model's components. These propositions have been developed from inferences based upon the social exchange literature.     

The multiplier impact of tourism in the okanagan

The primary objective of this study is to examine the economic impact of tourism on the Okanagan Region, (B.C., Canada), by evaluating the multiplier effects of tourist expenditure on the generation of income, sales and employment. Specifically, separate multipliers are calculated in order to identify the relative contribution of four major types of tourists, namely: (a) Non-residential Visitors, (b) Residential Visitors (B.C.), (c) Day-trippers, and for the first time, (d) Convention Delegates. This study utilizes the Archer tourism multiplier methodology by adopting a price level adjusted twenty-nine sector input- output framework as the basis for calculating the tourist multipliers. Unlike the earlier studies that are based on primary data, this study uses secondary data.     

Domestic tourism demand of urban and rural residents in China: Does relative income matter?

The aim of this research is to investigate the domestic tourism demand of urban and rural residents in China. Based on the data from the National Household Tourism Survey, we specify Chinese domestic tourism demand as a function of absolute income, relative income, domestic tourism price, and substitute price. As a major contribution of this study, relative income is measured using the distance between individual income and average income over a city/province. Based on the estimation results from multilevel models, this paper highlights the effect of relative income on domestic tourism demand in some sub-regions of China. Furthermore, regional differences between residents in different sub-regions and different patterns of determinants between urban and rural residents are identified and discussed.     

Forecasting international tourism trends to 2010

Modifications of earlier versions of forecasting models make it possible to trace the effects of changes in income and prices emanating from each individual country considered in this paper. At the theoretical level, it examines the assumptions underlying partial demand models and points out the implications of these assumptions in the context of those relating to international tourism. The new model is used to generate forecasts of tourism imports and exports for 20 countries for the period up to 2010. It allows a more realistic simulation of the impact of political events such as the introduction of the Euro and of changes in framework conditions.     

Remodeling international tourism demand: Old theory and new evidence

The purpose of this study is to advance the tourism demand theory by excluding simultaneous effects of exchange rates and prices in empirical models, formulating an alternative pricing modus operandi consistent with recent research in the area, and demonstrating the efficacy of the use of an industrial production index (IPI) as a proxy for income. A panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) method is employed to estimate the inbound tourism demand for Turkey. Study findings suggest that the inclusion of exchange rates and prices, as mutually exclusive components, can be misleading; the IPI is not a good proxy for income; and country-specific coefficients need to be analyzed to accurately explain determinants of tourism demand for countries in the panel.     

Foreign exchange exposure of US tourism-related firms

To date, literature on foreign exchange risk has paid a particular attention to multinationals in trade-related industries. The tourism sector is also sensitive to the exchange rates between travelers’ home countries and their destinations. Suspecting that the exposure of domestic tourism-related firms to foreign exchange risk results from price elasticity of demand, the current study tested the cash flow exposure of sample firms, accounting for nonlinearity, asymmetry, and lagged effects. As a result, a significant percentage (78%) of domestic tourism-related firms was found to have significant foreign exchange exposure. This study also found that exchange rate exposure for tourism-related firms was nonlinear, asymmetric, and lagged. The evidence implied that several tourism-related firms are passive regarding their exposure and may face financial burdens caused by demand fluctuations. Implications and suggestions are presented along with the findings of the study.     

Determinants of demand for international tourist flows to Turkey

This article describes the development and findings of a set of models used to identify the most important of the following selected variables influencing international tourist flows to Turkey: per capita income; relative prices; relative exchange rate; promotional expenditure (the Turkish Government has invested a substantial amount in promoting foreign tourism) and ‘special events’, eg political unrest. The demand for travel was measured both by the number of tourists, and by the total tourist expenditure. Data were obtained from secondary sources, and analysis was by least squares multiple regression. Income, price and exchange rate were found to be important factors but the impact of promotional expenditure was minimal