转型经济下中国的城市失业及劳动力流动

本的目的是要建立一个关于劳动力流动的模型。用模型解释劳动在城乡间的迁移行为，也将解释各省的城乡收入差别是如何影响各省的失业率。在中国的统计数据中，关注的常常是那些有着当地户口的居民。而在本里，模型不仅深入分析了当地居民的劳动力市场，还分析了农村外来人口的劳动力市场。而且章不仅对劳动力市场进行了的理论化，模型化的分析，还进行了深入的实证检验。中的实证研究关注了年龄为16—25岁的年轻劳动。因为这些年轻的劳动通常刚刚离开学校，所以关于他们失业的统计数据不会因为没有考虑到大量的下岗工人而存在巨大的偏差。     

农村外流劳动力与农村经济发展

本文从新农村建设主体缺失的角度重新审视了农村劳动力外流问题。通过农村人均收入和农村劳动力外流数据的实证分析,提出发展农村经济的重点是采取措施确保城乡市场地位公平,加大农村居民保障力度,打造农村规模生产市场。     

“富人社区效应”还是巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应?——一个基于外生收入的实际汇率理论

作为对国际价格水平差异的标准解释,巴拉萨—萨缪尔森(BS)效应依赖于国内劳动力同质假设和跨部门工资套利行为。本文提出了一个与之相对的"富人社区效应",可以在一国劳动力异质的条件下解释为什么富国的非贸易品价格较高。其直观解释是,如果一个国家拥有一个"富有居民"群体(比如高生产率的贸易品部门劳动者,或者全球贸易资源的所有者),而这个群体通过国际市场获得的硬通货总收入相对于该国总人口而言较高的话,其需求将抬高该国非贸易品价格。本文进而指出,关于BS效应的实证文献所广泛采用的两种基本统计检验,实际上无法区分BS效应与富人社区效应,这就对该领域相当一部分实证文献的正确性提出了质疑。此外,富人社区效应也有别于林德效应。     

农村人力资源开发的路径选择

党的十六届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于完善社会主义市场经济体制若干问题的决定》明确提出要逐步统一城乡劳动力市场，形成城乡劳动者平等就业的制度。作为生产要素市场之一的劳动力市场，是我国现代市场体系的重要组成部分。要完善社会主义市场经济体制，必须打破城乡分割的状况。建立城乡劳动者自主择业、平等就业的新型就业制度，引导农村剩余劳动力在城乡、地区间有序流动，逐步实现城乡劳动力市场一体化。     

中国劳动力市场发育与就业变化

本文通过梳理关于劳动力市场发育和就业状况的统计数据,并结合微观调查数据,对城乡就业增长和结构变化进行了描述,批评了传统的关于"就业零增长"、"农村剩余劳动力一成不变"等判断。本文提供了有关劳动力市场的指标,准确地反映了伴随着经济增长和改革开放的深入,劳动力市场发育水平的提高、就业总量增长和结构多元化、以及城镇就业压力的缓解和农村剩余劳动力大幅度减少的事实。此外,本文还通过对人口转变过程的阐释,预测了劳动力市场供求的变化趋势,做出刘易斯转折点即将到来的判断,并揭示了这个转折点对中国经济持续增长提出的挑战。     

构建我国统一的城乡劳动力市场的相关问题研究

本文指出当前我国城乡劳动力市场分割的表现形式主要是农村劳动者相对在就业机会,就业报酬及共享社会资源方面存在明显的差异;揭示城乡劳动力市场长期分割的根本原因在于决策者的政治取向,政绩考核指标不合理,制度惯性,地方政府的监督职能缺失和某些部门的利益取向,某些城市阶层的偏见,以及进城农村劳动者的忍耐;剖析建立城乡统一劳动力市场的必要性和可行性j提出建立城乡统一劳动力市场的主要任务以及相关步骤和策略.     

连续时间模型下的寿险需求和中国寿险市场的相关实证研究

本文以我国寿险市场为背景,通过建立包括保险决策的资产选择的动态连续时间模型,给出了保险产品价格成本效应对寿险需求影响的理论分析,并通过具体的数据分析讨论了模型的意义。本文还实证研究了目前我国保险市场一些主要的保障型寿险产品的附加保费因子及其对我国居民保险需求的影响。这在某种程度上解释了我国目前保障性保险需求不足的现象。同时本文实证分析的结果显示我国的保障性保险还远没有满足我国居民的潜在需求,并针对这种现象提出了相关的政策建议。     

破解城乡差距之困:基于劳动力流转模型的实证分析

农村劳动力转移无疑可以缩小中国的城乡差距。然而,在现实的劳动力流动过程中却存在诸多包括现行土地制度在内的障碍。文章在拓展Todaro模型的基础上,基于CFPS(中国家庭动态跟踪调查)数据实证分析了土地制度对农村劳动力流动的影响。研究结果表明,我国现行的土地制度限制了农地需求,从而抑制了农地流转市场的发育。这不仅导致农民在市民化过程中无法将农地的未来收益充分变现,还增加了农民市民化的机会成本,并进一步阻碍了城市化进程和城乡差距问题的解决。因而,完善土地流转制度,给予农民"市民化补贴"以推进农村劳动力转移,从而加速城市化进程,是破解城乡差距之困的根本途径。     

湖北农村剩余劳动力转移的条件和特点

一、湖北农村剩余劳动力转移的条件1市场经济的要求。市场经济是开放竞争的经济且要经受经济全球化的洗礼和考验,也就是通过市场经济这只无形的看不见的手,实现人力资源的有效配置,充分发挥市场机制在资源配置中的基础性调节作用。因为在社会经济的各类资源中,劳动力无疑是其最关键和最活跃的要素,人力资源的开发利用已为越来越多的人关注。要建立市场经济体制而又试图约束劳动者的自由流动和重新组合,那只能与市场经济的初衷相悖。而建立全国统一开放、竞争有序、城乡一体的劳动力市场,不仅城市劳动力资源需要重新流动和配置,而且农村劳…     

中国的刘易斯转折点及争议

近年来,“民工荒”和劳动力工资上涨问题引发了关于中国是否已经到达刘易斯转折点的激烈争论。本文对中国刘易斯转折点的争论进行了梳理,并将其总结为四种观点。之所以产生这些分歧,既源于判断标准和依据的差异,也受到了不同统计数据的影响。但是,劳动力工资上涨的同时伴随着农村剩余劳动人口以相当比例存在的这一基本矛盾与刘易斯模型的推论并不相符。本文认为,这个矛盾是由劳动力市场分割所导致的,并且刘易斯模型并未考虑劳动力流动的制度性障碍。因此,不能直接地以经典的刘易斯理论来分析中国经济,而近年来中国劳动力市场的一些新现象亦不能简单地与经典刘易斯理论中的“刘易斯转折点”相对应。需要修正未考虑制度性障碍的二元经济理论,或者消除城乡分割影响以使得中国经验适用于经典理论模型的判断。     

Segmentation or competition in China's urban labour market?

In China, urban residents have traditionally been protectedagainst labour market competition from rural–urban migrants.Over the period of urban economic reform, rural–urbanmigration was allowed to increase in order to fill the employmentgap as growth of labour demand outstripped that of the residentlabour force in urban areas. However, as reforms gained paceand controls were lifted, it is plausible that competition forwork between migrants and urban residents would have increased.The paper examines whether the relationship is one of segmentationor competition in the labour market. It uses attitudinal responsesfrom two urban surveys. The urban workers who perceive competitionfrom migrants are those who are most vulnerable. The findingsare consistent with the presence of continued labour marketsegmentation, but suggest also that competition between thetwo groups is increasing.     

Part‐Peasants: Incomplete Rural–Urban Labour Migration in China

The institutional settings in China, including the land allocation system and the household registration system, lead to a rural–urban labour migration pattern that differs from that in other countries. Individual peasants' labour is often split (typically over different times of the year) into two or more parts as a result of institutional factors. Individuals work both as peasants on the land and as temporary migrant workers in urban areas (or in rural non‐agricultural sectors). We examine this issue using province‐level panel data. The present study provides a new interpretation of the phenomenon of labour shortages in coastal cities and rising rural migrant wages in China in recent years, and discusses whether the Lewisian turning point has been reached. Under part migration, the rural labour supply to urban areas is smaller than would be the case with full migration of workers to urban areas, so that the Lewisian turning point occurs earlier. This finding has important policy implications for China's future development.     

Comparing earnings profiles in urban areas of an LDC: rural-to-urban migrants vs. native workers

"We use Tanzanian data to test a recently proposed hypothesis that rural-to-urban migrants have an incentive to supply greater work effort than native urban workers, because of the migrants' positive probability of returning to the low-wage rural areas. We treat the choice between public- and private-sector employment as endogenous and, for theoretical and empirical reasons, distinguish migrants with access to rural land from those without access. Our results show that migrants in both sectors face lower initial wage offers than native urban workers. But, the wage gap is eliminated within a decade or less, and thereafter, migrants surpass the wage offers of native workers."     

Rural labour market policies in Croatia,FYR of Macedonia and Turkey

Considerable differences are found among countries regarding the importance of the agricultural labour force, between rural and urban labour, and in poverty and living conditions in rural areas. Declines in the agricultural labour force and rural population are foreseen for each of the countries, but with significant variations between them. Showing different patterns over time, labour market developments in the sector and in rural areas have been shaped by the overall labour market institutions, conditions and factors in each country, such as the legal basis, educational attainment and migration flows, and the presence of non-agricultural activities in rural areas.     

Agglomeration Economies,Division of Labour and the Urban Land‐rent Escalation: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Urbanisation

A general equilibrium model with increasing return to labour specialisation and economies of transaction agglomeration is developed to address the residential land‐rent escalation associated with the urbanisation process, which is in turn endogenised as a result of the evolution of the division of labour. The interplay among the geographical pattern of transactions, trading efficiency and the network size of the division of labour plays a crucial role in our story of urbanisation. We show that: as transaction conditions are improved, the equilibrium level of division of labour and individuals specialisation levels increase; the urban land‐rent increases absolutely as well as relative to that in the rural area, the relative per capita lot size of residence in the urban and rural areas decreases; the diversity of occupations in the urban area and the population share of urban residents increase; and the productivity of all goods and per capital real income increase.     

Appropriation,migration, and unemployment

This article builds general equilibrium models to explore the relationship among appropriation, rural–urban migration, the minimum wage and unemployment. We find that the proportion of appropriated capital plays a key role in the effects of appropriation on unemployment and rural–urban migration. When the proportion of appropriated capital is large, a stronger control on appropriation by the government results in a lower unemployment rate and more rural–urban migrants, and vice versa. In the extended models, the conclusion may be different when the plundered factor changes from capital to land. In the situation with the agricultural sector employing unskilled labour and capital, appropriation has no impact on unemployment, and the effect on migration remains the same. We also discuss the implications of the minimum wage, and find that under plausible conditions, the rise of the minimum wage can alleviate appropriation and reduce unemployment. The situation of migration is ambiguous due to the impacts of two opposite factors.     

Where do the highly educated migrate? Micro-level evidence from finland

This paper analyses the role which migration of highly educated labour plays in human capital reallocation. The study focuses on actual migrants, examining the direct effect of educational attainment on destination choices. The paper uses the ordered probability model and a micro-level data set in econometric analyses. Individual level investigations of migrants show that highly educated migrants are likely to move to urban regions. As a result, the reallocation of highly educated labour, and thereby also the redistribution of human capital, seems to be taking place in Finland.     

中国的永久移民

中国的户口制度阻碍了农村居民向城市的迁移。然而,农村居民仍能通过接受较好的教育、提干或参军等方式获得城市户口。利用2002年的大样本调查,我们发现永久移民的数量大约为1亿,约占现今城市居民的20%。与留在农村的农民相比,永久移民的经济状况得到了很大的改善。成为永久移民的概率与父母教育水平、汉族身份、父母党员身份等正相关。永久移民的经济状况与获得户口时的年龄有关。较年轻时就获得户口的永久移民的收入要高于城市原住民,较晚获得户口的永久移民的收入则要低于城市原住民。尽管大部分永久移民成功地融入了城市生活,但那些通过非职业途径获得户口的永久移民,却远非如此。     

数字金融发展能促进返乡农民工再就业吗*——基于中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）的经验分析

互联网技术推动数字金融快速发展，对于降低融资约束和创业成本，推动我国返乡农民工创业就业，助力乡村振兴战略实现，具有十分重要的意义。本文通过构建理论模型，研究数字金融对返乡农民工再就业的影响，并使用中国数字普惠金融指数和中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据进行实证检验。研究发现：数字金融发展水平每提高一个标准差，促进返乡农民工非农就业概率提高0062个单位～021个单位，并使其农业就业概率降低0071个单位～022个单位。数字金融能够降低融资和创业成本，吸引返乡农民工在农村地区开展机会型创业，由此创造就业岗位，促进收入提升；相比之下，数字金融对进城农民工创业及收入没有显著影响。异质性分析显示，数字金融能够显著促进低物质资本、低人力资本的返乡农民工开展机会型创业，并对高儿童抚养比的返乡农民工有更强的普惠性。本文为返乡农民工等重点人群“稳就业”、推动农村信息化与乡村振兴战略实现，提供经验证据与政策依据。     

Should I Stay or Should I Go? On Relative Deprivation and Migration Dynamics

An overlapping-generations model for rural to urban labor migration is developed. In the migration decision the potential migrants consider both the absolute income gain and the relative deprivation associated with moving to town. It is shown that the relative deprivation mechanism introduces a positive externality between generations of migrants that can generate dual equilibria.