Distributional effects of multilateral and preferential trade liberalisation: The case of Paraguay

The aim of this work is to dissect the distributional impact of preferential and multilateral trade liberalisation on household well-being using individual level data for Paraguay never exploited so far. For this purpose, the intrazone and applied most favored nation (MFN) tariff pass-through rate on the prices of traded goods is estimated, and the impacts of trade induced price changes on households as consumers and as income earners are calculated. The results indicate that trade liberalisation has benefited households along the entire income distribution and, most importantly, show that these benefits differ according to the type of liberalisation policies implemented.     

Using survey data to assess the distributional effects of trade policy

This paper develops a method to estimate the general equilibrium distributional effects of trade policies using household survey data. Trade reforms cause the domestic prices of traded goods to change and this, in turn, triggers a series of general equilibrium effects. Among these, I estimate the impacts of trade on the prices of traded goods, non-traded goods, and wages. By combining the estimates of the consumption impacts and the labor income impacts, I am able to assess how trade policies affect households across the entire range of the income distribution. An application of the procedure to the study of the distributional effects of Mercosur shows that the average poor and middle-income family in Argentina has benefited from the trade agreement.     

Are Apparel Trade Restrictions Regressive?

Consumer welfare losses from apparel trade restrictions are estimated across different household income levels using Hicksian Equivalent Variations. The 1980–1992 Consumer Expenditure Survey, the 1980–1992 Consumer Price Index, and the 1990 ACCRA Cost of Living Index were used. For price differences under 45 percent, consumer welfare loss from higher apparel prices due to trade restrictions is greater as a percent of total expenditures for wealthy households than for poor households. Apparel trade restrictions, therefore, have a progressive effect.     

Why do developing countries resist global trade agreements?

Abstract

Although the Doha Development Round was launched with much promise for developing countries in 2001, the global trade negotiations have collapsed. One of the reasons for the lack of progress in the negotiation is the developed countries' unwillingness to reduce their enormous farm domestic subsidies and massive agricultural trade distortions. The developing countries' economies are characterized by heavy dependence on farm sector, labor-intensive agriculture, and persistent unemployment. Consequently, rich nations' unfair agricultural policies are detrimental to the well-being of poor exporting countries. This study develops a model incorporating developed countries' domestic and trade policies and developing countries' economic characteristics to illustrate the adverse effects of rich countries' policies on poor countries. We show that elimination of developed countries' policies will increase the world prices of agricultural commodities, which will benefit the farm-dependent developing countries.     

Globalisation and Poverty in Latin America: Some Channels and Some Evidence

This paper provides an overview of the main mechanisms through which globalisation can affect poverty and household welfare in Latin America and presents supporting evidence from different case studies in the region. One case study explores the impacts of agricultural trade liberalisation in world markets on poverty in Argentina, with an emphasis on labour income effects via real wages. The second case study examines the impacts of CAFTA on net producers and net consumers among the indigenous population in Guatemala. The analysis explores short‐run impacts as well as medium‐run impacts as households adjust farm decisions. Finally, a last exercise is set up to study the role of agricultural liberalisation on wages, employment and unemployment when there are frictions in labour markets. These case studies show that the impacts of trade on developing countries are heterogeneous. In Argentina, there are gains from liberalisation of world agriculture and higher food prices. In Guatemala, instead, the indigenous population would benefit from lower food prices. It is clear that household adjustments and complementary factors are fundamental ingredients of any reasonable evaluation of the welfare impacts of trade reforms.     

Who in Brazil Will Gain from Global Trade Reforms?

The potential impacts of multilateral trade liberalisation on developing countries are the subject of numerous controversies. One particular concern is that Brazil, a major agricultural exporter and a country with one of the world's most unequal income distributions, will reap a substantial share of the potential benefits to developing countries from agricultural trade reform, and that most of those benefits will go to large‐scale commercial farmers rather than to the country's smallholders. This claim is explored via a global general equilibrium model and a national model of Brazil containing multiple agricultural and non‐agricultural households. Brazil is found to account for nearly one‐half of all the benefits to developing countries deriving from global agricultural trade reform. These gains are associated with improvements in the welfare of each group and a lower incidence of poverty. Large‐scale producers gain more than smallholders as they tend to be relatively specialised in export products, but there are important gains to agricultural employees, who are relatively poor, and to urban households, who benefit from the expansion of the agro‐food sector. Overall, there is no discernible impact on income inequality, and no evidence that the gains to commercial farmers occur at the expense of poorer households.     

Budget Allocation Patterns of U.S. Households across Income Levels in the 21st Century

This study examined the budget allocation patterns of U.S. households during the period 2000–2015. Four household groups—classified based on their income levels in relation to the federal poverty level—are used for the analyses. Data from the quarterly interview component of the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey were used in order to calculate households' annual expenditures in eight commodity groups: food, utilities, apparel and apparel services, transportation, medical care, shelter and household operations, other nondurable expenditures and services, and durable goods. An exact affine stone index (EASI) demand system was used to estimate demand relationships (i.e., price, income elasticities, and marginal effects). Overall, we find that budget allocation, consumers' responses to changes in prices and income, and the effects of sociodemographic characteristics on spending can be markedly different between income groups. The use of a representative or average household for demand analyses can mask substantial differences in economic behaviors between these four income groups.     

Analysis of tenure choice and housing expenditure patterns

This study employs a selectivity model to account for the simultaneity existing between determinations of tenure status and level of spending. Important socio-economic characteristics affecting housing tenure were identified. Results indicate that income had a more important effect on the housing expenditures of renters than owners at a lower household income level. The race of the household head had a significant effect on variations in housing expenditures for owners but not for renters, suggesting that race may be a more important factor in owner-occupant than in renter-occupant housing. While household size may be an important factor in a family's decision-making in terms of buying a home, it is suggested that once tenure status is selected family size had no significant impacts on housing expenditures. Similarly, married couples were most likely to own their own homes than were other household types; however, married households did not spend more or less than other types of households on either owned or rented accommodation. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that in assessing empirical results, attention should be given to meaningful interpretation of estimated selectivity effects as well as to testing for occurrence of selectivity bias.     

加入WTO对农户收入的影响研究——基于价格传导视角

本文从价格传导途径出发,实证分析了加入WTO引致的商品价格和要素价格变动对农户家庭各类来源收入以及总体纯收入的影响。结果表明:加入WTO使得所有农村居民家庭纯收入都有所上升。从地区来看,东部地区农户收入的上升幅度大于西部地区农户,从收入分组来看,低收入组农户收入的增幅大于高收入组农户。     

Realizing the gains from trade: Export crops, marketing costs, and poverty

This paper explores the role of export costs in the process of poverty reduction in rural Africa. We claim that the marketing costs that emerge when the commercialization of export crops requires intermediaries can lead to lower participation into export cropping and, thus, to higher poverty. We test the model using data from the Uganda National Household Survey. We show that: i) farmers living in villages with fewer outlets for sales of agricultural exports are likely to be poorer than farmers residing in market-endowed villages; ii) market availability leads to increased household participation in export cropping (coffee, tea, cotton, fruits); iii) households engaged in export cropping are less likely to be poor than subsistence-based households. We conclude that the availability of markets for agricultural export crops help realize the gains from trade. This result uncovers the role of complementary factors that provide market access and reduce marketing costs as key building blocks in the link between the gains from export opportunities and the poor.     

The conflicting impacts of export fluctuations and diversification programmes

Abstract

While analyses of export instability and diversification policies typically focus on aggregate earnings, a conflict can arise between income instability at the aggregate and household levels. Diversification can reduce a country's aggregate income instability and simultaneously increase the instability experienced by many households, and perhaps by every household in the country. We demonstrate how alternative export portfolios can produce this conflict in instability. The conflict means that the conclusions from previous empirical studies need to be qualified and policy recommendations need to be carefully formulated.     

Explaining import quality: The role of the income distribution

We examine a generalized version of Flam and Helpman [Flam, H., Helpman, E., 1987. Vertical Product Differentiation and North-South Trade. American Economic Review, 77, 810-822.] in which consumption prices for quality differentiated goods are rising in household income. We provide propositions for aggregating this relationship across heterogenous households to map cross-country differences in income distributions to cross-country differences in import price distributions. The theoretical predictions are examined and confirmed using disaggregated data on prices of traded goods and micro data on household income from the Luxemburg Income Study. Country pairs with more similar income distributions have more similar import price distributions, whether similarity is measured by 1st-4th moment statistics, population and consumption shares within world income and product price quantiles, or income and price dis-similarity indices.     

Can Africa compete with China in manufacturing? The role of relative unit labour costs

This paper examines sub‐Saharan Africa's (SSA ) bilateral trade and cost competitiveness with China. We document an extraordinary imbalance in the structure of bilateral trade in that China overwhelmingly exports manufactured products to SSA and almost exclusively imports primary products in return. Our principal means of assessing the competitiveness of SSA 's manufacturing sector vis‐à‐vis China are measures of relative unit labour costs (RULC ). We find that African RULC s declined over the 2000s as China's wages rose faster than Chinese productivity while the reverse was true for the SSA countries in our sample. Nevertheless, RULC s vis‐à‐vis China remain very high for many SSA countries. High RULC s along with weaknesses in the business climate suggest that most SSA countries are unlikely to be competitive in labour‐intensive manufacturing any time soon.     

Trade Liberalisation and Poverty Reduction in Vietnam

This paper investigates the impacts of trade liberalisation on poverty reduction in Vietnam during the period of economic reform. Using a combined approach dealing with four transmitting channels from trade to poverty, the major findings are summarised as follows. First, Vietnam's trade liberalisation has fostered economic growth, which has helped to raise per capita GDP and reduce poverty. Second, trade liberalisation has directly benefited the poor through creating pro‐poor employment and raising wages. Third, another impact of trade liberalisation on poverty is income and substitution effects associated with reduced domestic prices of importables and increased domestic prices of exportables such as coffee and rice. Fourth, trade liberalisation has indirectly benefited the poor because it raises government revenue, which enhances the government's ability to subsidise the poor. Finally, although the poverty rate in Vietnam has been reduced impressively, there is an increasing disparity between urban and rural areas and, among the latter, concern does exist regarding ethnic minorities.     

Intersectoral size differences and migration: Kuznets revisited

That researchers look for the inverted-U shape in inequality in the arbitrary periods of arbitrary countries underlies the divergent empirical evidence across studies. To point to the right context for the pattern, this paper establishes a formal mechanism in line with Kuznets' explanation that relates to the industrialization-cum-urbanization phases of closed trade regimes. The mechanism involves an interaction among urban–rural sectoral size differences, agricultural tastes/income, and migration, and predicts an inverted-U shape in inequality in the following way: (i) widening differences in the sizes of urban and rural sectors due to exogenous shocks affect negatively the agricultural tastes/income, worsening inequality; (ii) increasing sectoral size differences and decreasing agricultural tastes/income jointly foster intersectoral migration; (iii) migration acts, in turn, as an equilibrating effect, improving the income distribution. Empirically testing these predictions, non-Sub-Saharan developing countries' data support the mechanism, while data from developed and Sub-Saharan African countries provide little support, as per our prior expectations. This highlights a contrasting evidence on the inverted-U shape across country groups of differing development stages.     

Mobile Telephony,Financial Inclusion and Inclusive Growth

ABSTRACT

The paper employs the multipurpose nature of mobile telephony to investigate its welfare implications using a large sample of households in Ghana. We use seemingly unrelated probit and instrumental variable procedure to test for two related issues: First, we investigate whether mobile telephony promotes pro-poor development by helping households to efficiently allocate consumption and navigate out of poverty. Second, we analyze whether access to a broad array of financial services enhances the capacity of households to live worthwhile lives. The results show that mobile penetration and financial inclusion significantly reduce the probability of a household becoming poor and increase per capita household consumption of food and non-food items. Our results show that the welfare benefits of mobile telephony and financial inclusion are not more pronounced in female-headed households. These insights serve as useful guide for government and other stakeholders who are looking for avenues to improve livelihoods.     

Bankrupt Households and Economic Crisis. Evidence from the Greek Courts

This paper investigates the profile of the Greek bankrupt households and is the first to deal with the bankrupt households in Greece utilizing court data from the judicial decisions according to the newly established personal Bankruptcy Law 3869/2010. We compare the characteristics of the bankrupt households drawn from the court data with those of a control group of households without financial difficulties constructed from the EU-SILC database. Our findings indicate that income and/or job loss, family breakup, and women with children are important characteristics related to bankruptcy. We also find that although the median of the household disposable income of the bankrupt households is lower than that of the households without financial difficulties, the former do not fall below the poverty line at a greater rate than the latter, in all household size instances. This finding is in line with the results of earlier studies indicating that bankruptcy is not a poor household’s issue. The results are confirmed using logistic regression relating the probability of bankruptcy to a set of socioeconomic measures.     

Globalization and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This article investigates how globalization affects economic growth in developing countries. We use a dynamic growth model with data from 42 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, covering the period from 1980 to 2012. The evidence indicates an inverted U curve type response, robust to changes in globalization measures and to alternative model specifications. Our findings are promising and support the view that the relationship between globalization and economic growth is not linear for SSA. Accordingly, SSA countries have control of trade openness, particularly for the import level of consumption goods to boost their economic growth through international trade.     

Trade liberalization and the allocation of labor between households and markets in a poor country

We consider the relationship between relative price changes and the allocation of labor between households and the formal wage labor market in the context of Vietnam's liberalization of its rice trade in the 1990s. Many individuals in poor economies work within their own household rather than in formal labor markets. We find that larger rice price increases in a community are associated with declines in hours adults devote to work within the household and increases in time spent in the wage labor market. We also observe increased specialization in household economic activities accompanying these shifts in hours towards wage work. Our results are consistent with the idea that a growth in the extent of the market shifts production and labor from households to markets during development, thereby inducing gains from specialization. Thus, the reallocation of labor between households and markets in response to a trade liberalization might be an important component in understanding the link between trade and growth in very poor economies, currently the focus of the Doha WTO negotiation round.