中国城市居民旅游需求函数的实证研究

旅游需求问题是旅游研究的核心问题之一,中国居民旅游需求函数是旅游需求问题研究的基础,旅行成本模型广泛地被用于估计居民旅游需求函数。文章基于停留时间内生的旅行成本模型,在考虑游客动态出游行为的情形下,使用中国39个城市2000~2007年间国内旅游抽样调查数据,采用广义矩估计方法对中国居民旅游需求函数进行了估计。研究表明,旅行成本、时间成本和居民收入是影响居民旅游需求的关键因素;旅游需求收入弹性的绝对值大于旅行成本弹性的绝对值,城市旅游产业发展的居民收入激励政策较之于成本竞争策略更有效;旅游需求的旅行成本弹性和时间成本弹性差异显著,减少旅行成本政策较之于缩短旅行时间政策更能提高城市的旅游收入;旅游需求和停留时间的影响因素存在异同,扩大旅游需求和延长停留时间的选择面临"两难",但也可"两顾"。     

社会交往、旅游情境对旅游需求的影响研究--基于春节“黄金周”的实证分析

以往关于消费者需求行为的研究多基于传统经济学框架的设定展开,认为影响消费者旅游需求的主要因素包含收入、目的地吸引力、交通等,普遍忽视了消费过程中的社会交往和具体情境。文章在理论分析的基础上,提出了若干命题,将消费者收入、社会交往和旅游情境等因素纳入旅游消费者需求的模型中,提出了若干研究命题。依据2014年春节“黄金周”旅游需求调研数据,采用排序选择模型验证了相关命题的正确性。计量结果表明,个人经济因素对我国消费者春节“黄金周”旅游需求影响较小,家庭结构、同伴等社会交往因素是影响其旅游需求的重要因素;我国消费者对于春节“黄金周”出游过程中遭遇的拥堵、旅游市场混乱等旅游情境问题具有一定的容忍度,但是,严重供需失衡导致的旅游情境问题依然对其旅游需求产生了显著的影响。     

Shifting patterns and determinants of Asia-pacific tourism to Australia, 1990–2010

Australia is an increasingly important international holiday destination. Especially travel demand from Asia-Pacific countries has increased, which has led Australian policy-makers to believe the Asia-Pacific region will remain the largest growth market for holiday tourists. This article first presents an overview of the evolution and shifting geographical patterns of Asia-Pacific tourism to Australia between 1990 and 2010, and relies on this to explore the major determinants underlying these changes using a bootstrapped loglinear multiple regression analysis. Results indicate that income (GDP per capita) remains the most important factor explaining tourism demand, albeit that the Australian holiday market is becoming increasingly mature. Distance, as a proxy for travel costs, has large negative elasticity that has slightly increased over time as the effects of air transport liberalization have been off-set by oil prices’. The paper is concluded with an outlook on some possible opportunities and challenges for future tourism demand to Australia.     

A travel demand model for Mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong

The purpose of the study was to determine what exogenous variables best explained the travel demand for Mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong. The 12 years (1984–1995) annual time series data of ‘number of Mainland Chinese tourist arrivals’, ‘China disposable income per capita’, ‘consumer price indices in Hong Kong and China’ and ‘exchange rates’ was used to develop a travel demand model. Seven exogenous variables were selected for the model through a literature review. An OLS multiple regression analysis was performed to identify the ‘best’ subset of seven exogenous variables to determine the demand model. The results showed that travel demand for Mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong could be explained by ‘disposable income per capita’ and ‘relaxation of visa requirements’.     

Modelling Australian domestic and international inbound travel: a spatial–temporal approach

In this paper Australian domestic and international inbound travel are modelled by an anisotropic dynamic spatial lag panel Origin-Destination (OD) travel flow model. Spatial OD travel flow models have traditionally been applied in a single cross-sectional context, where the spatial structure is assumed to have reached its long run equilibrium and temporal dynamics are not explicitly considered. On the other hand, spatial effects are rarely accounted for in traditional tourism demand modelling. We attempt to address this dichotomy between spatial modelling and time series modelling in tourism research by using a spatial-temporal model. In particular, tourism behaviour is modelled as travel flows between regions. Temporal dependencies are accounted for via the inclusion of autoregressive components, while spatial autocorrelations are explicitly accounted for at both the origin and the destination. We allow the strength of spatial autocorrelation to exhibit seasonal variations, and we allow for the possibility of asymmetry between capital-city neighbours and non-capital-city neighbours. Significant temporal and spatial dynamics have been uncovered for both domestic and international tourism demand. For example we find strong seasonal temporal autocorrelations, significant trends and significant spatial autocorrelations at both the origin and the destination. Moreover, the spatial patterns are found to be most significant during peak holiday seasons. Understanding these patterns in tourist behaviour has important implications for tourism operators.     

Visiting probability model: a new method for tourist volume forecasting

ABSTRACT

Tourist volume forecasting is an ongoing theme in tourism research. Current methods rely too much on the previous tourist arrivals data. Based on tourism system perspective, we propose a visiting probability model composed of five independent variables: the attractiveness of a destination, the travel time from a origin to the destination, the traffic expense to and from the destination, the physical fatigue travel time and the per capita disposable monthly income of the origin. The model provides a new method for forecasting the number of tourists from a specific origin without historical tourist arrivals data.     

An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on World tourism demand

This paper considers three econometric models to determine the relationship between macroeconomic variables and tourism demand. Tourism demand is measured by the inbound visitor's population and also by on-the-ground expenditures. The database is an unbalanced panel of 218 countries over the period 1995–2012. There is evidence that an increase in the World's GDP per capita, a depreciation of the national currency, and a decline of relative domestic prices do help boost tourism demand. The World's GDP per capita is more important when explaining arrivals, but relative prices become more important when we use expenditures as the proxy for tourism demand. We cannot reject the hypothesis of a relative prices unitary elasticity of expenditures. Additionally, we have partitioned our data by income level and by Continent. Results are robust in the first partition, but less robust in the second, although the main conclusions still hold. Finally, we draw policy implications from our findings.     

Analysis of Korean millennials’ travel expenditure patterns: an almost ideal demand system approach

ABSTRACT

Generational cohorts can differ in their consumption patterns and preferred travel behavior. As the millennial generation represents an important economic force and influences new consumption trends, this study utilizes nationwide data and almost ideal demand system (AIDS) approach to examine expenditure patterns of Korean travelers during holidays. In this process, the joint effects of travel-related characteristics are also examined. The results of the AIDS estimation on data from 871 domestic travelers reveal significantly different travel expenditure patterns for cohorts. The findings contribute to furthering the understanding of how different generational cohorts allocate their travel budgets to respective travel expenditure categories.     

The role of holiday styles in shaping the carbon footprint of leisure travel within the European Union

Leisure travel within the European Union (EU) contributes significantly to the carbon footprint of global tourism. Distance travelled is a main factor in this impact, but some of its determinants remain unexplored. We examined the role of tourists' holiday preferences in shaping the carbon footprint of leisure travel within the EU by calculating demand and impact indicators associated with eight holiday styles. We find a substantial and equivalent carbon footprint for visiting relatives, nature tourism and sea, sun and sand tourism, but a higher carbon intensity of travel per trip for the latter. This is due to widespread demand for sea, sun, and sand tourism despite the concentration of destinations in Southern Europe. Furthermore, international travel within the EU is on average three times more carbon intensive than domestic travel. Our insights suggest that tourists’ holiday preferences can be leveraged for the sustainable development of leisure travel within the EU.     

How does smog influence domestic tourism in China? A case study of Beijing

ABSTRACT

This study took Beijing as a case to examine the potential impact of smog on the domestic demand of tourist destinations in China. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was employed to explore and confirm the causal relationships between perception of travel risk, travel dissatisfaction, negative destination and avoidance tendency. It is found that the Mainland Chinese residents have a strong perception of the potential travel risk caused by smog in Beijing. Moreover, the impact of travel risk perception on avoidance tendency is indirect and works through the mediating variables such as travel dissatisfaction or negative destination image.     

Chinese Residents' Demand for Outbound Travel: Evidence from the Chinese Family Panel Studies

This paper investigates potential factors influencing Chinese residents' demand for outbound travel. Based on survey data from the Chinese Family Panel Studies project conducted in 2008, we utilize several discrete choice models to analyze (1) factors explaining Chinese residents' participation in outbound travel in the last five years and (2) factors explaining various types of outbound travel. We highlight the importance of age, hukou type, personal income, education level, domestic tourism participation, foreign language proficiency, life satisfaction, and Internet use to explain Chinese residents' outbound travel. We also observe regional differences and urban–rural differences by estimating the model using different sub-samples. Finally, implications are presented concerning marketing efforts in targeting potential Chinese outbound tourists.     

A latent class approach to tourists’ length of stay

In this paper, a conditional demand function is estimated for the length of stay at a tourist destination. The microeconomic model specifies the demand for the length of stay conditional on the remaining holiday characteristics that the tourist has chosen (the destination, type of accommodation etc.). The empirical model uses a latent class truncated Poisson regression, which acknowledges the existence of groups or segments of demand with different preferences. In the case under study, a distinction is made between two segments with a preference for either a longer or shorter holiday. The statistical model also resolves a problem of multimodality, acknowledged in previous analyses to be one of the main characteristics of this variable.     

Visitors' Perceptions of Holiday Experiences and Service Providers: An Exploratory Study

Abstract

The paper presents and discusses the results of an exploratory, empirical study, which intended to explore links between holiday experiences and the assessment of the tourism offering. Focusing on evaluation as perceived by customers, the author argues for the acknowledgement of their notion of the ‘holiday product.’ Consequently, the central theme of the study is the holiday visitor's narrated experience. It was found that prevalent assessment frameworks were inconsistent with the way visitors described their own holiday evaluation. Instead of a component-based judgement process, visitors seem to evaluate holidays against vague holiday ideals. Based on this finding, an alternative role and assessment model of service providers is proposed.     

Korean Outbound Tourism: Pre-Visit Expectations of Australia

Abstract

In this study Pearce's “Travel Career Ladder” concept was applied to a sample of South Korean tourists to examine motivations for travel to Australia as a holiday destination. Also, focus group interviews were conducted in Korea to assess visitor expectations, motivations and images of Australia. The initial findings from this study indicate that Koreans are primarily motivated to travel to Australia for the chance to experience natural environmental settings. Some aspects of Australia (e.g., Aboriginal history and culture) are little known in Korea but have the potential to attract Korean visitors. The results of this research may enable more effective marketing to Koreans by providing an insight into the most appropriate promotional content and information sources.     

The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism

This paper studies the impacts on economic growth of a small tourism-driven economy caused by an increase in the growth rate of international tourism demand. We present a formal model and empirical evidence. The ingredients of the dynamic model are a large population of intertemporally optimizing agents and an AK technology representing tourism production. The model shows that an increase in the growth of tourism demand leads to transitional dynamics with gradually increasing economic growth and increasing terms of trade. In our empirical application, an econometric methodology is applied to annual data of Antigua and Barbuda from 1970 to 2008. We perform a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of economic growth, international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate. The exercise confirms the theoretical findings.     

The Determinants of the Travel Demand on International Tourist Arrivals to Thailand

The purpose of this study is to develop a travel demand model of international tourist arrivals to Thailand and to assess the impact of crisis incidents on Thailand's tourism industry. A 20-year (1987–2006) annual time series data of “number of international tourist arrivals”, “exchange rate”, “promotion budget”, and dummy variables of “Asia financial crisis”, “special promotional campaigns”, “SARS” and “tsunami” were used to develop the travel demand model by performing a multiple regression analysis. The results showed that travel demand of international tourist arrivals to Thailand could be explained by “exchange rate”, “promotion budget”, “Asia financial crisis” and “SARS”.     

Holiday travel,staycations, and subjective well-being

The tourism industry thrives on the notion that holiday travel improves well-being. However, scientific evidence that holiday travel is more beneficial than spending free time at home is lacking. Using the Effort-Recovery and the Limited Resources model as theoretical basis, this study investigates whether workers behave, think, and feel differently during travel than during leisure time spent at home. In a five-week longitudinal field study, we followed 24 workers during free evenings after work, a free weekend at home, and on a free weekend of domestic travel. Within-person differences were investigated between these three occasions in behavior, cognition, and emotions. During travel, employees slept more, engaged more in physical and social activities and less in obligatory activities than during free evenings after work. Hedonic well-being was higher and ruminative thinking lower during travel than during free evenings after work. Physical distance from home and work was related to engagement in resource-providing rather than resource-consuming activities and seems to translate into mental distance from everyday worries. Differences between holiday travel and weekends at home were small. Still, the findings suggest that travel may provide feelings of remoteness in places with novel and fascinating qualities, free of chores.     

Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle

This study provides a strategy for modelling the effect of the business cycle on tourism demand under the rationale that tourism cycles are heavily influenced by lagged effects of the overall business cycle. Using quarterly data on overnight stays in Italian hotels, both domestic and inbound between 1985 and 2004, we adopt a structural time series approach to evaluate two alternative models, the first with a latent cycle component (LCC) and the second based on specific economic explanatory variables (XCV). The two models are compared in terms of explanatory power, best-fit, residual diagnostics and forecasting ability. The results show similar performances. The policy implication is that the XCV model can be used for calibrating countercyclical interventions in tourism policy.     

Pooling international tourism in Western Europe

This paper examines potential improvements in measures of international travel demand elasticities by pooling cross sections and time series of travel receipts. International travel receipts for 18 European countries are pooled and estimates of elasticities with respect to income, exchange rates, relative prices, transport costs, and number of terrorism events are computed. Indexes are developed for the purpose of measuring and aggregating transport costs and terrorism. The results show that the responses to changes in these variables are significantly different across countries. When the countries are constrained to have the same elasticities, but the constants are allowed to be different, it is found that all variables affect tourism in the expected direction and are statistically significant.     

Holiday Home Owners,a Route to Sustainable Tourism Development? An Economic Analysis of Tourist Expenditure Data

Although sustainable tourism comprises economic, social and environmental aspects, economic analysis has been less evident in the literature. This paper takes an economic perspective to evaluate the contribution of holiday home owners to a local economy. Tourism destinations which are at the mature stages of the tourism lifecycle wish to maximise revenue from tourism while minimising costs such as overcrowding. A prime objective has to be to attract the more economically valuable tourists. In this paper an analysis of North Wexford in Ireland poses questions such as: How does the holiday home owners’ expenditure in the local area compare to that of traditional tourists? Do they purchase different types of goods? What levels of local expenditure do holiday home owners engage in for the upkeep or development of their second properties? What are the implications of these findings? The results show that there are clear economic benefits for an area that people deem attractive enough to build or purchase a holiday home in. This type of tourist has a high annual spend relative to other tourists and much of this expenditure seems to be concentrated in the local area. These findings need to be incorporated into the broader debate regarding the advantages and disadvantages of holiday home owners and the possibility of them comprising a route to sustainable development for local tourist areas.