Further evidence on the effect of foreign competition on industry level wages

Conclusions This paper has examined the impact of trade changes on industry level wage outcomes in a bargaining framework. The results suggest that on average increases in trade, whether emanating from imports or exports, serve to decrease wage changes. This evidence is consistent with the view that foreign trade acts to moderate demand for an industry’s output and hence to discipline wage setting and is consistent with what Konings and Vandenbussche (1995) reported for UK manufacturing.     

The effect of trade on earnings--evidence from Swedish micro data

Using a large longitudinal data set, we study the effects ofincreased trade on earnings in the Swedish labor market. Earningsrespond significantly to changes in industry sales, whethergenerated by domestic market forces or international trade:Swedish exports (imports) raise (lower) annual earnings, butchanges in trade affect earnings just as any other shift inmarket conditions. We also examine whether the effects of tradevary by skill. We do not find systematic differences in theeffects of trade across the skill distribution.     

Trade effects of European Community preferences to Mediterranean countries: The case of textile and clothing imports

The European Community (EC)'s preferential trade agreements with Mediterranean countries have been subject to little ex post assessment. This paper analyses the preferences' impact on EC textile and clothing imports from Mediterranean countries. The preferred imports grew faster than world trade or OECD imports from developing countries, and as a proportion of EC imports and Mediterranean exports; EC preferences thus appear to have had a significant effect on Mediterranean countries' textile and clothing exports, although some recipients have taken greater advantage than others. Post-1977 EC protectionism in these products further benefited the preference-recipients, who were largely unimpeded by quatitative restrictions.     

International trade and agricultural production: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community sub-region

Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries have undertaken substantial reforms in market liberalisation policies and regional integration initiatives. Theory suggests that trade can affect output through the exploitation of comparative advantage, increasing return to scale, liberalisation policies and technology. This work investigates the impact of agricultural exports to, machinery and chemical imports from and tariffs on agricultural products by total partners to the Southern African Customs' Union, SADC, sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world on agricultural production. Following Hausman tests, three panel fixed-effect models are estimated. The first is for aggregate machinery imports, chemicals imports and agricultural exports. The second is for disaggregated exports and imports according to the respective destination and source regions above. The third is for aggregate imports and disaggregated tariffs implemented by the various export destination regions toward the SADC. The results agree with the theory that international trade is good for development. Agricultural market expansion through export opportunities and access to inputs are significant sources of agricultural production enhancement in the SADC region. Tariffs barriers to agricultural exports are found to be significant impediments to agricultural production. However, the disparity of effects by export destination and the insignificance of the impact of trade with the rest of Africa are worth emphasising.     

海外社会网络与中国进出口贸易

本文在传统的引力模型基础上引入社会网络变量,利用中国1980～2005年与26个国家进出口贸易数据,重点考察华侨社会网络的贸易效应。与先前文献不同,本文的实证考虑了社会网络效应的国别差异,引入制度变量和FDI来加以控制,并以固定效应来获取。结果显示,以华侨移民为基础的社会网络对我国贸易促进作用显著,但社会网络效应的有效性随着时间而减弱。结论认为,世界各国经济自由化和一体化加速以及制度创新与发展,减弱了我国对外贸易的社会网络依赖性;同时在华FDI的跨国企业分支网络也部分替代了华侨社会网络对贸易的促进作用。     

Exports,Imports and Productivity: Results from Indonesian Establishment Data

Using detailed micro data from the Indonesian manufacturing sector we examine whether participation in international trade affects establishments' productivity. Establishments participating in exports or imports have relatively high levels of productivity. Furthermore, the results suggest that establishments engaged only in exports have shown comparable high productivity growth. The larger the share of an establishment's output that is exported, the higher its productivity growth. The results concerning the effect of imports on productivity growth are mixed.     

贸易开放与工资差距——基于中国制造业行业面板数据的实证研究

本文在中国贸易非均衡发展现状基础上,构建计量模型,从商品价格机制、技术进步机制和生产率进步机制角度探讨中国贸易开放影响中国制造业行业间工资差距的具体传导机制。研究发现:(1)就制造业总体而言,贸易主要通过技术进步机制和劳动生产率机制来影响行业工资,造成行业间工资差距的扩大。(2)具体而言,劳动力密集型行业中,进出口贸易、资本密集度和劳动生产率共同作用于行业工资差距;在资本密集型行业中,进口贸易、资本密集度和劳动生产率是扩大工资差距的动因;在技术密集型行业中,出口贸易是工资差距扩大的主导因素。     

Does international trade competition influence candidates and voters? The case of Japanese Lower House elections

In this study, we explore the effects of regional exposure to manufacturing imports and exports on candidates and voters in national elections through panel data analyses, dealing with the possible endogeneity issues. We show that candidates tailor their stances toward trade policy in response to changes in local trade exposure. Increased manufacturing exports drive candidates to support relatively open trade policies; however, increased manufacturing imports do not influence candidates’ stances on trade policy. We also find that changes in local trade exposure influence citizens’ voting behavior. In districts with increased exports of manufacturing products, voters tend to cast ballots for parties that pledge to promote a free trade agreement as opposed to those that adopt a cautious attitude toward it. In districts that experience increased imports of manufacturing products, voters tend to support parties that are clearly opposed to establishing it. The economic issues related to international trade appear to be important to both candidates and voters in elections.     

Economic performance and international trade engagement: the case of Portuguese manufacturing firms

By combining economic and financial data for Portuguese manufacturing firms with data on their exports and imports, we uncover some aspects of the relationship between international trade engagement and firms’ performances. In line with recent theoretical and empirical developments in the international trade literature: (i) we testify that Portuguese international trade is highly concentrated, especially on the import side, and both in inter- and intra-sector terms; (ii) we corroborate previous studies and theses according to which two-way traders outperform only importers, only exporters and above all domestic firms; (iii) we find that the greater the diversification of markets and goods (especially with regard to imports), the better the performance achieved by internationalised firms; (iv) we notice that the higher the intensity of firms’ international trade (especially imports), the better their performance; (v) we also present evidence that destination markets for exports and origin markets for imports are also important in explaining firm’s performance.     

On the pro-trade effects of immigrants

This paper investigates the causal effect of immigration on trade flows using Italian panel data at the province level. We exploit the exceptional characteristics of the Italian data (the fine geographical disaggregation, the very high number of countries of origin of immigrants, the high heterogeneity of social and economic characteristics of Italian provinces, and the absence of cultural or historical ties with the countries where immigrants come from) coupled with the use of a wide set of fixed effects and an ‘instrument’ based on immigrants’ enclaves. We find that immigrants have a significant positive effect on both exports and imports, but much larger for the latter. The pro-trade effects of immigrants tend to decline in space, and even turn negative when large ethnic communities are located too far away from a specific province (via a trade-diversion effect). Moreover, while our data show inter-ethnic spillovers for exports, we find no evidence that networks between different ethnicities affect provinces’ imports. Finally, we provide evidence of a substantial heterogeneity in the effects of immigrants: the impact on trade tends to be larger for immigrants coming from low-income countries, for earlier waves of immigrants, and for least advanced provinces (Southern Italy).     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND WAGE PREMIUM IN ARGENTINA: THE ROLE OF TRADE FACTOR INTENSITY

During the 1990s, several Latin American countries implemented policies directed to the removal of barriers on international trade. However, there is a perception that reforms, especially trade liberalization, failed to deliver on their promises, easing the way for policies aimed at reversing some of them. Following Wood's hypothesis, we allow for the effects of liberalization to vary, depending on the skill intensity of production. The evidence confirms that the role of trade liberalization has been relatively small, but controlling for the presence of endogeneity gives larger estimates. Contrary to previous evidence, the wage premium of skilled workers was more sensitive to the increase of skill‐intensive exports than to that of unskilled‐intensive imports.     

Higher productivity in importing German manufacturing firms: self-selection, learning from importing, or both?

This paper uses a newly available comprehensive panel data set for manufacturing enterprises from 2001 to 2005 to document the first empirical results on the relationship between imports and productivity for Germany, a leading actor on the world market for goods. Furthermore, for the first time the direction of causality in this relationship is investigated systematically by testing for self-selection of more productive firms into importing, and for productivity-enhancing effects of imports (‘learning-by-importing’). We find a positive link between importing and productivity. From an empirical model with fixed enterprise effects that controls for firm size, industry, and unobservable firm heterogeneity we see that the premia for trading internationally are about the same in West and East Germany. Compared to firms that do not trade at all two-way traders do have the highest premia, followed by firms that only export, while firms that only import have the smallest estimated premia. We find evidence for a positive impact of productivity on importing, pointing to self-selection of more productive enterprises into imports, but no clear evidence for the effect of importing on productivity due to learning-by-importing.     

Chinese exports and productivity gains: panel evidence

This paper examines the impact of imports from China on the labour productivity levels of importers, using unbalanced data from 1994 to 2006. It is hypothesised that imports from China increase importer countries' labour productivity levels. Using cross‐section, fixed and random‐effect models, a statistically significant, positive relationship is found between the share of a country's imports from China and labour productivity in the manufacturing sector of that country. Moreover, it is found that imports from China have a larger impact on China's main Asian‐Pacific trade partners and countries with higher manufacturing shares in their total exports.     

The Determinants of High-Technology Exports: A Panel Data Analysis

This paper uses a panel dataset from 1980 to 2008 to examine the determinants of high-technology exports. This research finds evidence that human capital, inflows of foreign direct investments, and openness to international trade are the major factors impacting the performance of a country's high-tech industry in the global market. It also shows that institutions do not have a direct impact on high-tech exports. However, institutions might impact high-tech exports indirectly via their effect on proximate factors such as human capital and inflows of foreign direct investments. This paper also demonstrates that gross capital formation, savings, and macroeconomic volatility have no significant effect on high-tech exports.     

The complementarity between U.S. foreign direct investment stock and trade

Within a gravity model framework, this paper will establish that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are complementary, using trade and FDI stock data on a bilateral basis between the U.S. and 51 other countries over the period 1982 to 1994. U.S. outward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. exports than does inward FDI. On the other hand, inward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. imports than does U.S. outward FDI. These results are directly linked to patterns of intrafirm trade within the multinational enterprise (MNE), a result consistent with the transactions cost theory of MNEs. In addition, a sectoral analysis indicates that U.S. outward FDI in manufacturing has a large predicted impact on both exports and imports, whereas U.S. outward FDI in services has a large predicted impact on U.S. exports but little or no predicted impact on imports. Detailed comments and suggestions were provided by Joe Daniels, Albert Berry, and seminar participants at the University of Toronto, York University, Industry Canada, and the 1999 annual Canadian Economics Association meeting. Research assistance was provided by George Georgopoulos and Anthony Yao. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

Trade effects of silver price fluctuations in 19th-century China: A macro approach

We assess the role of silver price fluctuations in Chinese trade and GDP during the late Qing dynasty, when China still had a bimetallic (silver/copper) monetary system, in which silver was mostly used for international trade. Using a structural VAR (SVAR) with blockwise recursive identification, we identify the impact of silver price shocks on the Chinese economy from 1867, when trade data became available, to 1910, one year before the Qing dynasty collapsed. We find that silver price shocks had a sizable impact on both imports and exports but only a very minor effect on the trade balance, only a marginal impact on growth, and almost no effect on domestic prices. Stronger effects were partly mitigated by inelastic export quantities. Generally, the effect of silver price shocks, while considerable, was only short-lived, displaying no persistence in either direction. We find that the bimetallic system in Qing China might have mitigated a potential positive effect of silver depreciation but did not reverse the effect, which – contrary to claims made in the previous literature – was responsible for neither the worsening trade balance nor the inflation and the quickly increasing imports that occurred during our sample period.     

Impact of International Trade with Asian Newly Industrialized Countries on Wages in the European Union

This paper deals with the effect of international trade with newly industrialized countries (NICs) on wage inequality in the European Union (EU). We apply a two-stage mandated wage-estimation procedure to assess the respective impact of trade and technology on the relative wages of low-skilled workers. We find weak evidence of a positive impact on the wages of high-skilled workers with regards to trade with high-wage South-East Asian NICs but no evidence for other groups of NICs. We also find evidence of technological change, induced by trade with high-wage South-East Asian NICs. However, this indirect effect of international trade seems to have reduced wage inequality in the EU.     

Trade Balance： Numbers Can be Deceiving

I. Introduction Trade disputes have become more prevalent and acute in recent years. Almost all disputes have centered on trade balance and/or market access of certain merchandise or services. It is commonly believed by the public, media and politicians that trade surplus resembles mercantilism and trade deficit represents vulnerability. This is a major reason why Sino– US trade deficit and dispute settlements in the WTO relating to China have been stealingTrade Balance: Numbers Can be …     

中国对外直接投资对进出口贸易的影响——基于面板数据模型的实证

在分析2003-2009年我国对外直接投资的情况下,根据我国对外贸易的情况,把我国对外贸易伙伴国分为市场占有型和资源寻求型两类,来验证我国对外直接投资对进出口贸易的影响。实证表明,投资市场占有型国家对出口贸易的拉动效应大于资源寻求型国家,投资资源寻求型国家对进口贸易的拉动效应大于市场占有型国家。     

Prospects for the manufacturing exports of the non-candidate Mediterranean countries in a community of twelve

The paper examines the impact of the accession of Greece, Portugal and Spain on the exports of manufactures of the non-candidate, non-member Mediterranean countries (NCMC). The effects of the second enlargement of the EEC on the manufacturing exports of the NCMC are examined by looking at the changes in post-enlargement market access principally in two groups of markets, i.e. the markets of the European Community of Nine (EEC-9) and the markets of the new entrants. The structure of the manufacturing exports to the EEC-9 of the newly acceding countries is compared to the structure of the exports of NCMC to the Community in order to see the extent to which EEC-9 imports from NCMC will be replaced by sources from the new entrants. The potential for NCMC trade expansion and trade discrimination in the markets of the new entrants is also investigated. The paper concludes by pointing out the commodity groups where trade conflicts between the enlarged EEC and the NCMC can potentially arise.