A keynesian macro-econometric model of the UK: 1955–1984

In this paper we present a small Keynesian macro-economic model in which wage-price determination is linked to the working of goods and money markets. By explicitly treating the Keynes effect we derive a general expression for the employment-money supply elasticity, and draw the IS-LM loci in the employment-interest rate space Our empirical specification allows for short-run disequilibrium dynamic adjustments around the static long-run relations predicted by the theoretical model. By careful use of our specification search strategy we obtain a statistically sound econometric model, which exhibits sensible long-run properties. A remarkable finding implied by our estimates is that equilibrium unemployment is negatively affected by both money supply and incomes policy.     

Further evidence on finance-growth causality: A panel data analysis

This paper reassesses the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. Using recently developed panel methods on a data set of 71 developed and developing countries over the period 1960-2004, our study confirms previous results of a bidirectional causality between finance and growth. In addition, we show significant differences among country groups when considering both long-run and short-run causality. While in low and middle income countries there is no supportive evidence of short-run causality between financial development and economic growth, in high income countries economic growth significantly affects financial development.     

Energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: evidence from Indonesia

Energy policy-makers in Indonesia are interested in the causal relationship between energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyze the short- and long-run causality issues between energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and economic growth in Indonesia using time-series techniques. To this end, annual data covering the period 1965–2006 are employed and tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger-causality based on an error-correction model are applied. The results show that there is a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. This means that an increase in energy consumption directly affects CO₂ emissions and that CO₂ emissions also stimulate further energy consumption. In addition, the results support the occurrence of uni-directional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption and to CO₂ emissions without any feedback effects. Thus, energy conservation and/or CO₂ emissions reduction policies can be initiated without the consequent destructive economic side effects.     

Quantile models and estimators for data analysis

Quantile regression is used to estimate the cross sectional relationship between high school characteristics and student achievement as measured by ACT scores. The importance of school characteristics on student achievement has been traditionally framed in terms of the effect on the expected value. With quantile regression the impact of school characteristics is allowed to be different at the mean and quantiles of the conditional distribution. Like robust estimation, the quantile approach detects relationships missed by traditional data analysis. Robust estimates detect the influence of the bulk of the data, whereas quantile estimates detect the influence of co-variates on alternate parts of the conditional distribution. Since our design consists of multiple responses (individual student ACT scores) at fixed explanatory variables (school characteristics) the quantile model can be estimated by the usual regression quantiles, but additionally by a regression on the empirical quantile at each school. This is similar to least squares where the estimate based on the entire data is identical to weighted least squares on the school averages. Unlike least squares however, the regression through the quantiles produces a different estimate than the regression quantiles.     

Export growth and output growth: An application of bounds testing approach

The short-run and the long-run relationship between export growth and economic growth has received a great deal of attention in the literature. Cointegration techniques that have been employed by previous researchers require that the variables to be non-stationary but their linear combination to be stationary. When variables are not integrated of the same order, they are excluded from analysis. This needs not to be the case with the introduction of the bounds testing approach. Indeed, the approach does not require pre-unit-root testing. This paper applies this new method to export and output data from 44 developing countries and provides support for the export-led growth hypothesis in 60% of the countries.     

Impact of Islamic banking development and major macroeconomic variables on economic growth for Islamic countries: Evidence from panel smooth transition models

This study examines the nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development, major macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Islamic countries. Using the panel smooth transition model, the results show a positive nonlinear relationship between Islamic banking development and economic growth. Moreover, the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and economic growth is asymmetric and regime-dependent. Further, by using the dynamic panel quantile model, we show that for many cases the Islamic banking variables lead economic growth across the quantiles. More specifically, foreign direct investment, oil production and inflation have a positive impact on economic growth during the normal financial development state, while government consumption, one-lag economic growth, terms of trade and financial development have a negative impact on economic growth for this state. The human capital index, education and the rule of law have an insignificant impact, regardless of the prevailing regime. The results for the separated oil-importing and oil-exporting economies are generally consistent with the combined sample regarding the Islamic banking development variables. As for the macro variables, they have a positive and significant (insignificant) effect on EG for the oil-importing (oil-exporting) economies for almost all models.     

Exploring the link between research and economic growth: an empirical study of China and USA

In this paper, we explore the link between scientific and technical research and economic growth in China and USA over the sample period 1981–2012 using the extended Cobb–Douglas model with capital per worker and the quantity of scientific and technical journal articles (research publications) per worker. We examine the cointegration relationship and present the short-run and long-run results using the autoregressive distributed lag bounds procedure. Further, we examine the direction of causality between research publications per worker results and economic growth variables using the Toda and Yamamoto (J Econom 66(1–2):225–250, 1995) procedure. Our results indicate for both countries research publications per worker positively influence the output per worker both in the short-run and the long-run. The causality results for China indicate a bi-directional causality between research publications per worker and output per worker, duly emphasizing the mutually reinforcing effect. In case of USA, we note a unidirectional causation output per worker to research publications per worker indicating that output Granger cause research publications.     

Impact of economic growth volatility on income inequality: ASEAN experience

The study attempts to examine the symmetric and the asymmetric impact of volatility of economic growth on the inequality of income in the major ASEAN economies over the period 1980–2015. Financial development, trade openness as a proxy of globalization, inflation, human capital formation, and fiscal policy are utilized as major control variables. The paper tries to explore the causal association between inequality of income distribution and economic growth volatility, exploring simultaneously the long-run association and the short-run dynamics in the time series structure. The study applied Clemente–Montanes–Reyes unit root test to identify the structural break in the time series. Further, the cointegrating relationship of the time series observations was explored by applying the ARDL (linear) bounds test approach along with the nonlinear ARDL for making fruitful comparisons in the long-run relationship among the variables. The countries chosen are Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and The Philippines. The empirical findings strongly suggest a long-run cointegrating relationship between income inequality and growth volatility with a positive and statistically significant impact. Also, the causality analysis was explored using the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) method of Granger causality. The causality test shows that there exists bidirectional causality from inequality transmission to economic growth volatility. The implications that are developed from this study helps us to understand the various policy reforms in the ASEAN region, that are more transparent and can make these economies less susceptible to risks.     

Investigating properties of commodity price responses to real and nominal shocks

This paper studies dynamic adjustments of 49 world commodity prices in response to innovations in the nominal exchange rate and the world real GDP. After we estimate the dynamic elasticity of the prices with respect to these shocks, we obtain the kernel density of our estimates to establish stylized facts on the adjustment process of the commodity price toward a new equilibrium path. Our empirical findings imply, on average, that the law of one price holds in the long-run, whereas the substantial degree of short-run price rigidity was observed in response to the nominal exchange rate shock. The real GDP shock tends to generate substantial price fluctuations in the short-run because adjustments of the supply can be limited, but have much weaker effects in the long-run as the supply eventually counterbalances the increase in the demand. Overall, we report persistent long-lasting effects of the nominal exchange rate shock on commodity prices relative to those of the real GDP shock.     

China's Exchange Rate Reform and Exports

The paper argues that exchange rate reform is a vital supply-side factor in China's export growth. It contributes to China's export expansion by affording a realistic exchange rate and allowing freer access to foreign exchange, thereby leading to the reduction of anti-export bias and strong supply response. In an imperfect substitutes model, China's long-run export supply and demand functions are estimated in a system context. Evidence is found that the exchange rate reform is one of the most influential factors in China's long-run export expansion, inducing significant response of exports supply. In the short-run, the exchange rate reform and the export volume are also cross-linked through the error-correction process. China's exchange rate policy adjusts speedily to ensure the long-run equilibrium of the supply-side relationship and is likely to have played a dominant role in the adjustment. The study confirms, thanks to the exchange rate reform, China's exchange rate policy has benefited China's remarkable growth of exports before 1994.     

Export-led economic growth and the case of Brazil: An empirical research

The world has been globalized much more than ever before and this process integrates the economies of countries. Moreover, one means of integrating the economies of countries is trade. In this instance, the export-led economic growth emerges as a considerable determinant. Export-led economic growth is beneficial for the countries since it facilitates the inflow of foreign exchange, increases production, creates new employment opportunities and enhances the overall commercial volume. In this study, the correlation between export-led economic growth is explored for Brazil. Therefore, according to the findings of this paper as well as econometric and statistical applications, there is a bi-directional causality in Brazil since 1960s between economic development and exports in the long-run (this could also be termed as feedback); furthermore, in the short-run, there is export-led economic growth. The novelty of this paper is that, it is one of the latest studies investigating export-led economic growth for Brazil.     

A Time Series Analysis of U.K. Lottery Sales: Long and Short Run Price Elasticities

This paper estimates the long- and short-run elasticities for Lotto. It is particularly concerned with the dynamic response to price variations since, for some goods, this has sometimes been used to infer the presence of addiction. The price elasticity is identified through variation in the expected value of a Lotto ticket induced by rollovers whose high frequency results in surprisingly high variation in the expected value of holding a ticket. Unit root tests are applied to the series in order to identify their time series properties and to avoid a spurious regression problem. The series are found to be stationary. We apply instrumental variables to account for the endogeneity which arises due to correlation between the expected value and the dependent sales variable. The estimated long-run elasticity exceeds the short-run elasticity and this supports the hypothesis that there is an element of addictive behaviour in sales. The Lottery is regulated and the regulator's objective is to maximize sales. Our estimated long-run price elasticity of demand is inconsistent with revenue maximization and we find that greater revenue for the 'good causes' could be raised from the game if a smaller proportion of sales revenue were allocated to them.     

Prioritization of government expenditure on health in India: A fiscal space perspective

Unequal distribution of fiscal resources and lower prioritization of budget towards healthcare are the most important challenges in achieving universal health coverage in India. This study has examined relationships between government health expenditure and fiscal space (i.e. tax revenue, non-tax revenue, fiscal transfer, and borrowings) in twenty-one states of India for the period of 1980–2014. Our panel regression results imply that mobilization of tax revenue has a positive impact, while borrowings have a negative impact on the allocation of government expenditure on healthcare in the long-run. The panel quantile regression results show that states associated with the low and middle level of revenue growth have been mobilizing finance through central government transfer and borrowings in short-run. Further, the panel vector error correction models show that sum of the lagged coefficients of borrowings have a greater impact on health financing process as compared to other sources of fiscal space at short-run, and the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is relatively slower. The overall analysis concludes that less domestic revenue mobilization and higher dependency of borrowings for healthcare financing may create fiscal stress on state finances in the long-run, and thereby it could possibly reduce the prioritization of spending. Therefore, improvement in revenue growth and proper utilization of fiscal transfer would be appropriate policy implications from this study.     

Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries

There are two major findings from our time-series estimations. First, we find that there is no long-run significant relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in the G-7 countries. This result interfaces with Bahmani-Oskooee and Sohrabian’s (1992) finding, but contrasts with the studies that suggest there be a significant relationship between these two financial variables. Our second finding is that the short-run significant relationship has only been found for one day in certain G-7 countries. For instance, currency depreciation often drags down stock returns in the German financial market, but it stimulates the Canadian and UK markets on the following day. However, an increase in stock price often causes currency depreciation the next day in Italy and Japan. In addition, we also find that the record of stock price and the value of the dollar cannot be depended on when predicting the future in the US, either in the short-run or long-run.     

Dynamic interactions between Main Street and Wall Street

The paper examines the time-varying relationship between Main Street and Wall Street (proxied by the Dow–Jones industrial index and the Standard & Poor’s 500 index) using cointegration and error-correction techniques. Preliminary results reveal that each pair of series is bounded by a long-run, common stochastic trend and is characterized by significant short-run interactions. The results point to significant inverse effects of lagged GDP changes on the stock price index fluctuations but not vice versa. A suggested interpretation of this finding is that when the economy is doing well then increases in interest rates are expected which would, in turn, adversely affect the stock market.     

Growth, development and natural resources: New evidence using a heterogeneous panel analysis

This paper explores whether natural resource abundance is a curse or a blessing. To do so, we firstly develop a theory consistent econometric model, in which we show that there is a long run relationship between real income, the investment rate, and the real value of oil production. Secondly, we investigate the long-run (level) impacts of natural resource abundance on domestic output as well as the short-run (growth) effects. Thirdly, we explicitly recognize that there is a substantial cross-sectional dependence and cross-country heterogeneity in our sample, which covers 53 oil exporting and importing countries with very different historical and institutional backgrounds, and adopt the non-stationary panel methodologies developed by Pesaran (2006) and Pedroni (2000) for estimation. Our results, using the real value of oil production, rent or reserves as a proxy for resource endowment, reveal that oil abundance has a positive effect on both income levels and economic growth. While we accept that oil rich countries could benefit more from their natural wealth by adopting growth and welfare enhancing policies and institutions, we challenge the common view that oil abundance affects economic growth negatively.     

Cointegration of price measures: Evidence from the G-7

This study addresses index-dependency of empirical results associated with the purchasing power parity (PPP) relationship. Using four key price indices involving the G-7 nations, empirical tests for long-run co-movement are conducted. A test for linear restrictions is imposed. The speeds of adjustment are calculated for statistically significant linear combinations. The speed of the short-run response to disequilibrium differs both within and across countries. The seven-country average reveals that the CPI has the quickest recovery response to a one-time disturbance. The findings suggest that PPP results are not dependent upon the choice of index when an explicit set of indices is cointegrated.(JEL F3)     

Investor sentiment and country exchange traded funds: Does economic freedom matter?

Using unbalanced panel data of 27 iShares MSCI country-specific exchange traded funds (ETFs) over the period 1996–2014, this paper applies quantile regression to examine the impacts of global, foreign, and U.S. investor sentiments on the returns of the ETFs traded in the U.S. markets. We further investigate whether a country’s economic freedom affects the relationship between investor sentiments and ETF returns. We find that ETF returns are strongly determined by investor sentiments and the ETF expense ratio. The quantile regression approach reveals that high-return ETFs are positively sensitive to changes in global sentiment (measured by market turnover, VIX, U.S. federal funds rate), foreign sentiment (measured by current account balance, inflation, market turnover, public debt), U.S. sentiment, currency exchange ratio, and expense ratio, while negatively influenced by economic freedom and Asian proxy. The effects of VIX and foreign inflation are a reversal; that is, returns from lower (higher) quantiles have a negative (positive) relation with VIX and foreign inflation. Not all components of economic freedom affect returns equally.     

Does GINI respond to income volatility in an asymmetric manner? Evidence from 41 countries

Previous studies that assessed the impact of income volatility (as a measure of economic uncertainty) on income inequality relied upon either cross-sectional data or panel data, mostly due to the lack of sufficient time-series observations. Now that enough time-series observations are available for many countries, we revisit the issue and assess the possible asymmetric effects of income volatility on income inequality in each of the 41 countries. We find short-run asymmetric effects in almost all countries, short-run impact asymmetric effects in 20 countries, and long-run asymmetric effects in 21 countries. There was much less support when we engaged only in symmetric analysis.     

U.S. uncertainty and Asian stock prices: Evidence from the asymmetric NARDL model

When uncertainty reduces spending among U.S. consumers, it may affect the bottom line stock performance of Asian producers that cater to their needs. Theory predicts that the impact of uncertainty will be asymmetrical: during the two phases of the business cycle, countercyclic shocks will outweigh procyclic shocks, resulting in phase-specific equilibrium price adjustments. We conjecture that relative to recessions, recoveries bring larger long-run price adjustments, a response to pent-up growth potential. This is an extension of existing theories, which predict that recoveries bring overshooting, a transient reaction to pent-up demand. We test for these asymmetric uncertainty effects on 11 Asian stock market indices over the 2000M08 – 2017M02 period. Our independent measures include the economic policy uncertainty index (EPU) of Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016), the Chicago Board Options Exchange implied volatility index (VIX), and the financial uncertainty indicator (JLN) of Jurado, Ng, and Ludvigson (2015). To characterize asymmetry, we employ the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model of Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014), in which both short- and long-run nonlinearities are captured through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the explanatory variable(s). Using the NARDL output, we test three hypotheses. The first, that increases in uncertainty (decreases in uncertainty) result in stock price drops (stock price rises), is broadly supported by our analysis. The second, that equilibrium adjustments following negative countercyclic uncertainty shocks exceed those following positive movements, is supported fully by the EPU analysis and partially by the VIX and JLN analyses. The third hypothesis, that recoveries are characterized by overshooting, is consistent only with the behavior of the Chinese stock responses to EPU and VIX shocks. Our results demonstrate the advantages of the NARDL model in characterizing asymmetry. They suggest that while long-run asymmetry is fairly consistent across countries, short-run asymmetry is more country-specific.