Financial fragility,sovereign default risk and the limits to commercial bank bail-outs

We show that with intertwined weak banks and weak sovereigns, bank recapitalizations become much less effective. We construct a DSGE model with leverage constrained banks lending to firms and holding domestic government bonds. Bond prices reflect endogenously generated sovereign risk. This introduces a negative amplification cycle: after a credit crisis output losses increase more because higher interest rates trigger lower bond prices and subsequent losses at banks. This further tightens bank leverage constraints, and causes interest rates to rise further. Also bank recapitalizations are then much less effective. Recaps involve swaps of newly issued sovereign bonds for bank equity, the new debt increases sovereign debt discounts, leading to capital losses for the banks on their holdings of sovereign debt that (partially) offset the impact of the recapitalization. The favorable macroeconomic effects of bank recaps on the recovery after a financial crisis are correspondingly lower.     

Bank Ownership and Lending Behaviours: The Relevance of Community Links

Asset size does not seem to be a good predictor of bank lending behaviours. An overlooked determinant of lending may be the relationship a bank has with its local community. This article suggests that US banks owned and headquartered in a community are typically central actors in local business networks, and bank executives are intimately connected to their communities. As a result, lending decisions made by banks headquartered in the community often become influenced by the social relations and social networks of bank executives.     

Credit risk of subsidiaries of foreign banks in CEE countries: Impacts of the parent bank and home country economic environment

In this study, using dynamic panel data, we investigated the influences of the home country economic environment and parent bank condition on the credit risk of foreign banks in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We concentrated on the international transmission of credit risk through the internal capital market of multinational banks. Our theoretical assumptions follow studies that document how the parent bank condition and home country macroeconomic environment affect lending in subsidiaries in CEE countries. However, our results go one step further. We provide evidence that these relationships are reflected in subsidiaries’ credit risk in CEE countries. Our results suggest that the size and profitability of the parent bank have negative influences, while the liquidity and credit risk of the parent bank have positive influences on the subsidiaries’ credit risk. Moreover, the GDP growth in the parent bank’s country has a negative effect on the credit risk of the subsidiary, while the lending rate and liquidity in the parent bank country cause growth in the credit risk. These results indicate a new channel of international risk transfer from parent bank countries to host countries through foreign-owned banks.     

Endogenous credit standards and aggregate fluctuations

Widespread empirical evidence shows that credit standards fluctuate over the business cycle. We build a macroeconomic model in which countercyclical lending standards emerge as an equilibrium outcome. In the model, banks compete on lending rates as well as collateral requirements. The presence of lending relationships between firms and banks gives rise to endogenous fluctuations in interest rate margins and collateral requirements. We demonstrate that endogenous credit standards amplify business cycles, driving up output volatility by around 25% when compared to a model without lending relationships. Finally, we show that in order to combat the effects of endogenous credit standards on macroeconomic volatility, a countercyclical loan-to-value ratio is an effective macroprudential policy tool.     

Loan Loss Provisions by Banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore

This paper studies loan loss disclosures by banks in Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore for the period 1993 through 2000. We find that unexpected loan loss provisions are positively related to bank stock returns and future cash flows. This indicates that Asian bank managers increase loan loss provisions to signal favorable cash flow prospects, and bank investors bid bank stock prices up when unexpected provisions are positive. These results are consistent with those obtained by Wahlen (1994) for US banks. We also examine the impact of the Asian financial crisis of 1997 on the loan loss variables. The results indicate that the association between the unexpected loan loss provisions and bank stock returns and future cash flows was significantly lower in the crisis years, relative to the non‐crisis period. Evidently, discretionary loan loss provisions had no signaling value during the crisis. This suggests that macroeconomic uncertainty influenced the strategic behavior of Asian bank managers and investors.     

Is foreign-bank efficiency in financial centers driven by home or host country characteristics?

This paper investigates whether home or host country factors can explain differences in technical efficiency among foreign banks operating in the Luxembourg financial center. We first address heterogeneity across banks by using the group-wise bootstrap to compare DEA measures of bank efficiency between branches and subsidiaries, focused and diversified banks, and euro area and non-euro area banks. We then control for these factors in a second-stage regression indentifying the impact of country-specific regulatory and macroeconomic variables on individual bank efficiency scores. Our regulatory indicators capture the strictness of capital requirements, private monitoring, official disciplinary power and restrictions on bank activities. Our macroeconomic indicators capture GDP per capita in the home country and its position in the business cycle. Our results carry policy implications for bank regulators in both home and host countries and provide insight into banks’ choice between establishing a branch or a subsidiary to develop cross-border activities through international financial centers.     

Foreign bank lending during a crisis: The impact of financial regulations

This study examines foreign bank lending during crises by using data on 1,558 individual banks in Asian and Latin American countries during the period 1987-2013. Our results reveal that, in a crisis period, Asian banks with a higher level of foreign ownership tend to reduce their lending. Nevertheless, during crises banks consistently increase their lending in order to support their borrowers; in fact, in Latin America, crises stimulate foreign banks to lend more. Our evidence on lending during a crisis supports credit rationing theories with a flight to quality. The international substitution effect also holds based on our results. Taking financial structures and regulation into consideration, for banks with more foreign ownership in a highly concentrated financial system in Asia, the crisis has less effect on a cut in lending, while it has a greater effect on cuts in lending for countries with a higher level of government-owned assets. This paper contributes to the existing literature on the bank lending channel and provides implications for policymakers.     

Conventional Monetary Policy Transmission During Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis

This paper studies the effects of a conventional monetary policy shock in the USA during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states (‘normal’ and high financial stress) depends on a financial conditions index. Employing a quarterly dataset over the period 1970:Q1 to 2008:Q4 containing 108 US macroeconomic and financial time series, I find that a monetary policy shock during periods of high financial stress has stronger and more persistent effects on macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption and investment than it has during ‘normal’ times. Differences in effects among the regimes seem to originate from nonlinearities in both components of the credit channel, i.e. the balance sheet channel and the bank‐lending channel. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

需求不确定的电商供应链融资模式选择

探讨在市场需求不确定情况下,对电商和中小型供应商均有利的融资模式即银行借贷模式和电商借贷模式。研究发现,影响电商供应链各节点企业利润的重要指标是银行贷款利率,有利于电商供应链各节点企业利润的银行贷款利率存在一个确定的区间。若银行贷款利率属于该区间,则电商借贷模式更有利,否则银行借贷模式更有利。     

Lending attitude as a financial accelerator in a credit network economy

In existing literature, commercial banks are often considered mere financial intermediaries that facilitate the flow of credit in an imperfect credit market. However, as demonstrated in the history of financial instability, the behavior of financial institutions plays an important role. This paper examines how lenders’ attitudes affect macroeconomic performance. In our analysis, the economy is composed of multiple borrowers (firms) and one lender (bank). Each borrower is directly connected to the lender through its credit contract. At the same time, each borrower is indirectly connected to all the other borrowers within the credit network. Using this model, we execute computer simulations to examine the economic consequences of lending attitudes. The results of the simulations demonstrate that the bank’s lending attitude functions as a financial accelerator; that is, it significantly affects the dynamics of the economic system through the credit network. Consequently, the same level of exogenous shock generates completely different outcomes depending on the different lending attitudes. The results also show that there exists an optimal lending attitude that leads to high economic growth and a stable growth path.     

股东关联贷款对商业银行发展的影响研究

股东关联贷款对商业银行发展的影响与银行贷款危机密不可分。文中分析了股东关联贷款与银行贷款危机之间的关系，着重就股东关联贷款对商业银行影响进行研究，并提出了防范和降低商业银行股东关联贷款风险的政策建议。     

Are commercial bank lending propensities useful in understanding small firm finance?

We consider recent criticism by Berger et al. (J Bank Finance 31:11–33, 2007) of the use of commercial bank lending propensities (e.g., small business loans/total assets) as research tools. We use 2SLS cross sectional regressions with bank fixed effects to examine the relationship between small business lending and bank size. Our results indicate that the propensity to lend to small businesses declines as bank size increases, and the growth in small business lending does not keep pace with the growth in bank size. An increase in bank asset size from $1 billion to $100 billion reduces the ratio of small business loans to total loans and leases by 28 percentage points. Contrary to Berger and Black (2007) we find that most small business loans are made by small banks. For 1993 to 2006 as a whole, small banks (those under $1 billion) accounted for only 14.1% of total deposits and 9.7% of total banking assets, but they accounted for 28.4% of small business loans outstanding. This is consistent with the pattern shown by lending propensities. We conclude that these propensities remain very useful tools in research on small firm finance.     

How does the money market development impact the bank lending channel of emerging Countries? A case from China

Transforming from quantitative-based instruments to price-based instruments is the primary goal of the monetary policy transformation in emerging economies. In essence, this process is gradually replacing the interest rate channel with the credit channel from the perspective of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, which is mainly achieved by promoting financial development to reduce the financial friction. However, there are opposite effects of financial development on the bank lending channel; thus, the topic is controversial. Using banks’ data from 2010 to 2018, this paper studies whether and how the money market development weakens the effect of the bank lending channel in China. The result shows that the mechanism through which the money market development influences the bank lending channel is realized by affecting the substitution elasticity of the asset and liability structure of banks’ balance sheets. Different from the theoretical expectation, the effect of the money market development on the bank lending channel is nonsignificant in China but appears to be weakened when the interest rate market-oriented reform is considered. However, further research based on structural analysis demonstrates that the money market development exerts heterogeneous effects on the bank lending channel under different types of sub-markets and different characteristics of the banks considered.     

Does bond market development enhance the banking sector’s efficiency in resource allocation? Industry-level evidence from Korea

Korea’s financial system used to be bank-based, with banks playing the leading role in financing corporations. As highlighted by Park et al. (2019), however, bond markets have developed rapidly in Korea and other Asian countries. The corporate bond market competes with banks as a source of finance for large borrowers. As such, bond markets may affect banking sector operation, a process known as disintermediation. In this paper, we examine whether bond market development improves the efficiency of resource allocation in Korean bank lending. We propose two channels through which bond market development affects the efficiency of bank lending. Since the two channels have opposing effects on the efficiency of banking, the issue must be settled by empirical analysis. We find that bank loans are much less efficient than bond financing in allocating resources across industries. Furthermore, banks are particularly inefficient in resource allocation in industries that rely more on bond financing. This suggests that competition from bond financing does not improve allocative efficiency of bank loans.     

Foreign banks and short-term macroeconomic fluctuations: Do financial development and regions matter?

In this paper, we investigate the association between bank integration, measured with the share of foreign banks in the banking industry, and macroeconomic volatility in emerging economies. We find a negative and significant relationship between bank integration and short-run fluctuations in output, consumption and investment, controlling for financial development, bank concentration and the real effective exchange rate. However, this relationship is found to be positive at high levels of financial development. We also explore the association at the regional level and show that the presence of foreign banks in Latin America is negatively and significantly correlated with macroeconomic volatility both in normal times and times of crisis. Despite widespread concerns in emerging Europe, which experienced greater financial vulnerability during the global financial crisis, we find no significant association between growth volatilities and bank integration.     

新常态下我国商业银行贷款利率定价机制探讨

我国经济进入新一轮非均衡运行的新常态,商业银行发展模式将逐步向“讲质量”转变。2013年7月央行贷款利率管制放开后,商业银行迎来信贷资产自主定价的新时代,如何适应新常态下银行贷款利率定价机制,是商业银行转型发展永恒的主题。本文简要介绍了商业银行贷款定价机制的现状,揭示了商业银行贷款定价机制存在的问题,提出了新常态下优化贷款定价的建议。     

Commercial property prices and bank performance

We seek to assess the relationship between commercial property price movements and the behavior and performance of individual banks in a range of industrialized economies, extending the existing micro literature on bank performance. Our results suggest that commercial property prices tend to be positively associated with bank lending and profitability, and negatively associated with banks’ net interest margin and bad loan ratios. Further extensions show that the degree to which such a relationship holds is related to the size of the bank. The results underline the relevance of commercial property prices as a macroprudential variable that warrants scrutiny by the authorities.     

The impact of the macroeconomic factors in the bank efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese city banks

This study uses stochastic frontier analysis to examine the impact of the regional disparities in the cost and profit efficiency for a sample of city commercial banks in China from 2005 to 2014. The results indicate that bank efficiency of Chinese City Commercial banks is positively correlated to the per capital GDP but negatively linked to urban population ratio. However, compared the eastern and non-eastern regions, there is a significant difference in effects of macroeconomic factors for bank efficiency. The macroeconomic conditions influence the efficiency of Chinese City Commercial banks in eastern regions are more significant than the others.     

The role of banks in the monetary policy transmission in the new EU member states

This paper aims to enrich the knowledge on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the new European Union member states with empirical evidence on the impact of monetary policy on bank lending. This work is based on individual bank balance sheet data and covers a sample of commercial banks from 10 Central and Eastern European countries over the period 1998–2006. We follow the approach suggested by Kashyap and Stein (1995) and control for cross-section heterogeneities among banks. The results indicate the existence of asymmetric adjustment of loan quantities with respect to specific bank characteristics. Our findings indicate the existence of a functioning bank-lending channel through small banks. This applies in the short-run to several, but not all, of the analysed banks.     

The Influence of Managerial Ownership on Bank Market Value,Performance, and Risk: Evidence from Banks Listed on the Stoxx Global Index

We follow agency theory to assess the influence of managerial ownership on the market value, performance, and risk of 123 listed banks in 23 countries included in the STOXX Global Index in 2007 and 2010. After controlling for bank characteristics, regulatory restrictions, and macroeconomic conditions, our findings show a positive relation between managerial ownership and both market value (Tobin's Q) and performance (ROA and ROE). Moreover, we find a negative relation between managerial ownership and risk (EDF, NPL/L, and Z‐SCORE). Bank market value and performance is a non‐linear, inverse U‐shaped function of managerial ownership. The negative relation between managerial ownership and bank risk is also non‐linear and U‐shaped. Our results remain robust to reverse causality. In their effort to immunize the global financial system from systemic risks, central banks and practitioners should find our results relevant for regulation purposes.