Does political risk matter for sovereign wealth funds? International evidence

We investigate the impact of political risk on the investment decisions of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Using an international sample of 302 targets involved in 427 SWFs' deals, we find that political risk matters in determining SWFs' portfolio strategies. Among the four dimensions of political risk, we show that conflicts and democratic tendencies are the main components that explain variations in SWF behaviour, whereas the quality of institutions and government action matter less. Our results are robust to a battery of sensitivity tests, alternative model specifications, subsample analysis, and cultural bias.     

Sovereign wealth fund investment and the return-to-risk performance of target firms

This paper investigates the relationship between sovereign wealth fund (SWF) investment and the return-to-risk performance of target firms. Specifically, we find that target firm raw returns decline following SWF investment. Though risk also declines following SWF investment, we find that SWF investment is associated with a reduction in the compensation of risk over the 5 years following acquisition. Firm volatility decomposition suggests that idiosyncratic risk is what mainly drives these impacts toward decline. Employing a multinomial logit framework wherein combinations of target returns and risk movements are categorized, we see that, in cases of foreign investment, SWFs’ target firm performance most closely resembles that of other government-owned firms. The observed results are inconsistent with predictions of higher volatility and improved returns due to monitoring firm activities from the institutional investor literature. This suggests that SWFs may not provide some of the benefits that are offered by other institutional investors.     

Friends or foes? Target selection decisions of sovereign wealth funds and their consequences

This paper examines investment strategies of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), their effect on target firm valuation, and how both of these are related to SWF transparency. We find that SWFs prefer large and poorly performing firms facing financial difficulties. Their investments have a positive effect on target firms' stock prices around the announcement date but no substantial effect on firm performance and governance in the long run. We also find that transparent SWFs are more likely to invest in financially constrained firms and have a greater impact on target firm value than opaque SWFs. Overall, SWFs are similar to passive institutional investors in their preference for target characteristics and in their effect on target performance, and SWF transparency influences SWFs' investment activities and their impact on target firm value.     

The effect of sovereign wealth funds on the credit risk of their portfolio companies

We study how sovereign wealth fund (SWF) investments affect the credit risk of target companies as measured by the change in their credit default swap (CDS) spreads around the investment announcement. We find that the CDS spread of target companies decreases, on average, following an SWF investment. The reduction in the CDS spread is higher when the SWF is established by a politically stable non-democratic country that has a neutral political relationship with the host country of the target company. Our results suggest that creditors expect SWFs to protect target companies from bankruptcy when it is in the interest of their home country to build political goodwill in the host country of the company.     

The Impact of Sovereign Wealth Funds on Corporate Value and Performance

The last few years have seen a remarkable increase in the participation of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in global capital markets. In this article, the author draws on a unique dataset of SWF international holdings—one that dates back to the year 2002 and includes individual SWF holdings in more than 8,000 companies in 58 countries—to provide evidence of the impact of SWFs on corporate values and operating performance. Contrary to claims that SWFs expropriate minority investors and pursue political agendas, the main finding of the author's study is that SWF ownership is associated with positive changes in both corporate market values and operating returns. In support of these findings, the author also identifies three important ways that SWFs work to increase the performance and value of the companies they invest in: (1) as long‐term holders that provide a stable source of financing; (2) as representatives of deep pools of international capital in search of global diversification opportunities that are likely to provide companies with a lower‐cost (as well as more “patient”) source of equity capital; and (3) as politically well‐connected strategic investors that enable their companies to leverage important connections when accessing new product markets.     

Determinants of Sovereign Wealth Fund Cross‐Border Investments

Using a sample of 1,590 purchases of stock by sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) in listed firms in 78 target countries between 1985 and 2011, we study the country‐level determinants of SWF cross‐border investment. We find that SWFs from countries with high levels of openness and economic development, but with less developed local capital markets, will make more cross‐country transactions, while target countries with higher levels of investor protection and more developed capital markets will attract more SWF investment. Our findings support the investment facilitation hypothesis, suggesting that SWFs act purely or principally as commercial investors facilitating cross‐border corporate investment.     

Sovereign wealth funds: Past,present and future

In this article, we conduct a meta-literature review of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), covering 184 articles from 2005 to 2019. Our meta-literature review consists of qualitative analysis of content using the NVivo software program and quantitative analyses of bibliometric citations using the HistCite and VOSviewer software programs. We identify three main research streams: (i) the overview and growth of SWFs, (ii) governance and political concerns regarding SWFs, and (iii) the investment strategies of SWFs. We identify the most influential aspects of the SWF literature, such as the leading countries, institutions, journals, authors, and articles. Finally, we propose 20 research questions based on the meta-literature review of sovereign wealth funds to set the future research agenda.     

Investment,leverage and political risk: Evidence from project-level FDI

Does capital structure influence firms' FDI capital expenditure decisions into countries with varying degrees of political risk? We explore this question using a novel dataset that matches 10,000 unique outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) projects with 1135 distinct U.S. firms over the period 2003–2014. We find that capital expenditures allocated to FDI projects are significantly lower for highly leveraged firms, in particular for firms with low growth opportunities. Firms also commit lower capital amounts to investments located in countries characterized by higher political risk. Furthermore, leverage and political risk interact with one another in determining the financial commitment of the FDI, with leverage exerting a significantly stronger negative effect on capital expenditures in countries where political risk is elevated. Our findings are consistent with the monitoring role of debt in curbing exposure to political risk in multinational firms' foreign operations, and corroborate the disciplinary role of leverage on firms' investment decisions.     

The state of research on sovereign wealth funds

The new global economic and political environment brings new challenges to sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and forces them to adopt new strategies to adapt to the environmental changes. This study is a sequel to Fotak, Gao, and Megginson (2017). We focus on the newly produced research on SWFs and confirm the impact of new environmental changes on SWFs' asset allocations and decision-making process. Recent studies on cross-border SWF investments show that SWFs are different from other private institutional investors although no evidence explicitly proves that SWFs have exerted political influence on recipient countries through their cross-border deals. SWFs are improving their transparency. However, the variations in transparency and institutionalization are attributed to the disparities in national culture, political regime, and internal political dynamics. We re-examine the long-term impact of SWF investments on target firms and industries and affirm the necessity to consider the heterogeneity among SWFs. We also survey the research investigating the government's motivations to establish new SWFs.     

Religious freedom, religious diversity, and Japanese foreign direct investment

Research into the links between religion and foreign direct investment is scarce, partly because research on religion has not been the traditional domain of business and economics. Nevertheless, religion affects the economies, political structures, legal environments, and social behaviors of people around the world and is, therefore, an important element of the international business environments. Foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions are often made after an assessment of the international business environments. This article makes a singular contribution by focusing on the impact of religion – religious freedom and religious diversity – on the foreign direct investment of Japanese companies. We find that national income and religious diversity significantly influence Japanese decisions to invest.     

The effect of sovereign wealth funds on corporations: Evidence of cash policies in Singapore

This paper studies the monitoring role of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). By using unique dataset from one of the largest SWF: Temasek holdings, we find that SWF’s presence has a positive effect on cash holdings of portfolio companies. The effect is more pronounced for well-governed firms, indicating that Temasek increases corporate cash holdings through its active role in corporate governance. We further find supportive evidence that Temasek ownership affects cash holdings by hoarding excess cash and reducing capital expenditure, especially within firms with good governance. Temasek’s discerning effect on cash policies highlights the effective monitoring role of sovereign wealth funds.     

Sovereign pension and social security reserve funds: A portfolio analysis

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have been increasing in numbers and in the global reach of their investment activities. At the same time, they seem to experience the adverse consequences of the financial crisis differently than other financial intermediaries. This paper assesses whether and how a retirement-financing purpose has affected their investment strategies since the global financial crisis, as opposed to the strategies of other public pension entities that do not operate as SWFs. We construct a sample of 12 sovereign pension reserve funds (SPRFs) and social security reserve funds (SSRFs) and analyze the effects of size, operational model, country development, the fund's experience, and quality of disclosures on strategic asset allocation for the period 2007–2014. We also investigate the relevance of “home bias.” Our results show that SPRFs invest more aggressively than SSRFs, but are less exposed to domestic investments. We do not find major shifts in asset allocation induced by the financial crisis, except for a recent decrease of home-country exposures.     

Target firms’ characteristics and the effects of sovereign wealth funds’ investments: Does cultural context of SWFs matter?

This paper investigates whether the determinants and effects of sovereign wealth fund (SWF) investments vary across SWFs' countries of origin. We classify SWFs based on the national culture of their home countries. On the side of investment motives, our findings show different nuances across SWFs classified by cultural origins. Furthermore, the post-investment approach varies among SWFs distinguished on the basis of the cultural traits of their home country. As a whole, these findings confirm that the heterogeneity of the cultural origin of SWFs matters in terms of selection criteria and effects.     

Corporate socially responsible investments: CEO altruism,reputation, and shareholder interests

Corporate managers often invest in activities that are deemed to be socially responsible. In some instances, these investments enhance shareholder value. However, in other cases, altruistic managers or managers who privately benefit from the positive attention arising from these activities may choose to make socially responsible investments even if they are not value enhancing. Given this backdrop, we investigate the various factors that motivate firm managers to make socially responsible investments. We find that larger firms, firms with greater free cash flow, and higher advertising outlays demonstrate higher levels of corporate social responsibility (CSR). We also find that companies with stronger institutional ownership are less likely to invest in CSR — which casts doubt on the argument that these investments are designed to promote shareholder value. Consistent with the literature that explores how CEO personal attributes influence corporate decision making, we find that female CEOs, younger CEOs, and managers who donate to both Republican and Democratic parties are significantly more likely to invest in CSR. This latter result suggests that CSR investments may not be driven solely for altruistic reasons, but instead may be part of a broader strategy to create goodwill and/or help maintain good political relations. Finally, we find a strong positive connection between the level of media scrutiny surrounding the firm and its CEO, and the level of CSR investment. This finding suggests that media attention helps induce firms to make socially responsible investments.     

Cross-border opportunity sets: An international empirical study based on ownership types

This paper is the first, to our knowledge, to make the distinction between the investment opportunity set of real assets versus portfolio securities. We perform a large scale formal investigation of the investment opportunity set in global acquisitions based on ownership type over the period of 1985–2012. Compared to private acquirers, government acquirers have a much reduced investment opportunity set. Government acquirers invest in fewer target nations and industries, settle for smaller stakes, invest in countries with lower quality legal institutions and in nations with which political relations are more positive and see a 50% higher deal failure rate.     

Firm values and sovereign wealth fund investments

We analyze the impact of sovereign wealth fund (SWF) investments on firm values and provide evidence consistent with the tradeoff between the monitoring and lobbying benefits versus tunneling and expropriation costs of SWFs as blockholders. The data show significant positive (negative) returns to announcements of SWF investments (divestments). The returns are non-monotonic, first rising (falling) and then falling (rising) with the share sought (sold) for investments (divestments). Moreover, we find that SWFs are often active investors. Slightly more than half of the target firms experience one or more events indicative of SWF monitoring activity or influence.     

Conglomerate Investment,Skewness, and the CEO Long‐Shot Bias

Do behavioral biases of executives matter for corporate investment decisions? Using segment‐level capital allocation in multisegment firms (“conglomerates”) as a laboratory, we show that capital expenditure is increasing in the expected skewness of segment returns. Conglomerates invest more in high‐skewness segments than matched stand‐alone firms, and trade at a discount, which indicates overinvestment that is detrimental to shareholder wealth. Using geographical variation in gambling norms, we find that the skewness‐investment relation is particularly pronounced when CEOs are likely to find long shots attractive. Our findings suggest that CEOs allocate capital with a long‐shot bias.     

Determinants of Regional Investment Decisions in China: An Econometric Model of Tax Incentive Policy

This paper examines whether concessionary tax rates and tax incentives can attract foreign direct investment (FDI) into certain designated areas in China. Since China opened its doors to foreign investors in 1979, tax benefits have been used extensively to attract FDI into different areas. In 1991, a new tax law was introduced which superseded two previous income tax laws. This new law provides additional tax benefits which improve the investment environment for foreign investors. This study investigates the effect of China's tax rates and tax incentive policy on FDI and on the locational choices of foreign firms. Our empirical results indicate that tax rates and incentives are important determinants of regional investment decisions in China, after controlling for potential confounding variables covering infrastructure, unemployment rate, wage rate and agglomeration economics. Specifically, areas offering lower tax rates and increased tax incentives are found to attract greater amounts of FDI. The impetus of the tax effect on FDI is more apparent in the post-1991 period due to changes in the tax laws. Our results also suggest that infrastructure variables are important determinants of regional investment decisions.     

Political uncertainty and cross-border equity portfolio allocation decisions: International evidence

Political risk models highlight that political uncertainty matters for corporate investment decisions. However, how political uncertainty matters for investment allocation decisions is relatively under-explored. In this study, we examine the impact of political uncertainty associated with national elections on foreign equity portfolio in 48 countries. Our results indicate that political uncertainty reduces international equity allocations to the host country and such reduction appears more pronounced in the election year. Further analysis shows that the interaction between political uncertainty and institutional quality has a positive and significant effect on international equity portfolio flow, suggesting that the value of institutional quality outweighs the negative effects of political uncertainty. Lastly, we find equity home bias to be negative and significant; however, the interaction between political uncertainty and equity home bias appears insignificant.     

Bank lending incentives and firm investment decisions in China

This study investigates whether and how banks’ lending incentives influence firms’ investment behaviors in China. First, empirical results show that loans granted to politically connected firms are less influenced by those firms’ profitability and tangibility. Second, political connection is a violation factor in debt markets, and our study finds that firms with political ties invest less efficiently than firms without political ties when they can access abnormal debt. Finally, we find that regional development with regard to market development and government quality improvement reduces the negative impact of politically connected lending on firms’ investment efficiency.