Do Unions Affect Labor's Share of Income: Evidence Using Panel Data

There have been a number of studies analyzing the impact of unions on labor's share of income. Most have relied on either time series or cross‐section data. The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of unions on labor's share of income in the U.S. This study adds to the understanding of this topic by developing an analytical model of imperfect competition and estimating the model using panel data for the manufacturing sector. This study finds that unions have a positive impact on labor's share of income. Specifically, this paper finds that labor's share declined 17.9 percent between 1997 and 2006 whereas, if unionization density had remained at its 1997 level, labor's share would have declined only 13.9 percent. Thus, the decline in unionization explains about 29 percent of the decline in labor's share of income. This paper is important for three reasons. First, this paper sheds light on whether social and institutional forces play an important role in determining the distribution of income between labor and capital. Second, it helps to explain recent increases in wage inequality. Third, it has implications for understanding the potential impact of legislation, such as the Employee Free Choice Act, that would make it easier for workers in the U.S. to unionize.     

我国玩具对美出口面临的技术性贸易壁垒及对策分析

中国玩具出口占美国玩具市场的80%。美国多种形式的技术性贸易壁垒严重影响了我国玩具出口。本文通过对我玩具出口美国现状、美国玩具市场的特点以及美国所采取的新的技术性贸易壁垒阐述,分析了对我国玩具出口产生的影响,并提出相应的对策建议。     

Substitution Bias and Cost of Living Variability for U.S. Demographic Groups:

A bstract . Intertemporal cost of living variability is analyzed for households with differing income levels and family characteristics. These indexes are based upon the parameter estimates of a comprehensive system of expenditure equations, the quadratic expenditure system. Despite considerable differences in the group-specific share parameters as well as nonlinearities in the Engle curves for each group, little variation occurs in these indexes for several U.S. price series over the 1967–1984 time period. As a result, we find little evidence that group-specific fixed weight indexes are better cost of living approximations than a general Consumer Price Index even though all substitution bias estimates, by income and household type, are quite small.     

Does relative risk aversion vary with wealth? Evidence from households׳ portfolio choice data

We test whether relative risk aversion varies with wealth using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data in the U.S. Our analytical results indicate the following implications. For each household, there are two channels through which the risky share responds to wealth fluctuations, the income channel and the habit channel. Across households, there are heterogeneous responses through both the habit channel and the income channel. Finally, two potential misspecification problems on time-varying relative risk aversion arise when both heterogeneous responses through the habit channel and the responses through the income channel are ignored. Our main empirical findings are to show the importance of the income channel and the heterogeneous responses, and to provide strong evidence of relative risk aversion varying with wealth, after correcting two misspecification problems.     

A Comparitive Study of the Use of Financial Graphs in the Corporate Annual Reports of Major U.S. and U.K. Companies

The use of graphs to disclose information in corporate annual reports represents a significant dimension in financial disclosure management. Surprisingly, no inter-country comparative analysis of this area of voluntary disclosure has been conducted. This study compares the graphical reporting practices in the 1990 annual reports of 176 leading U.S. and U.K. industrial companies. Ninety-two per cent of U.S. companies use graphs compared with 80% of U.K. companies; the mean number of graphs per company being 13.0 and 7.7, respectively. Sales, an earnings measure, earnings per share and dividends per share are the four most frequently graphed aggregate financial performance variables in both countries. Significant differences in several of the variables graphed are found and explained in terms of environmental factors. In both countries, evidence of graphical information manipulation exists in the form of selectivity, measurement distortion, and presentational enhancement. Moderate evidence supports the hypothesis that U.K. companies are more likely than U.S. companies to adopt interpretative shading. Regulators need to clarify the responsibilities of directors and auditors by setting graphical guidelines.     

The allocation of household income to food consumption

Low-income households - those toward which various income supplement programs are aimed - not only spend a large share of their incomes on food, but exhibit a higher income elasticity of demand for food than does the rest of the population. Further, a greater proportion of the marginal income generated via welfare payments and food subsidy programs (e.g., food stamps) is devoted to food consumption than is true of wage income. These are among the major conclusions emerging from an extensive Engel Curve analysis applied to the data generated by a five-year (1968–1972) panel study of 5000 U.S. households.     

Income Inequality in Large U.S. Cities in the 1980s

Per capita personal income among states and regions has been shown to diverge during the 1980s following a long trend of income convergence. This paper investigates the divergence of income using median family income in the 1980s for the largest 51 U.S. cities. Producer services earnings and manufacturing earnings as a percent of total earnings are also investigated to shed light on income divergence. It is found that income and producer services earnings diverged in the 1980s unlike manufacturing earnings which converged. Convergence among regions for household income is also investigated. The results substantiate the common view of trends toward convergence prior to the 1980s and divergence thereafter.     

Economic Growth and Quality of Life: A Comparative Indicator Analysis Between China (Taiwan), U.S.A. and Other Developed Countries

A bstract . A composite Quality of Life (QOL) indicator model of five major components — Social, Economic, Energy and Environmental, Health and Education , and National Vitality and Security —was developed. Based on cross-national data of 1975, 32 developed countries and China (Taiwan) were ranked according to their component and overall QOL measures. The influence of income and other variables on QOL was analyzed; it was found that the income variable is not as significantly related to the composite QOL indexes as are other variables and China (Taiwan's) QOL rankings far exceed its per capita income ranking in the international comparison. The U.S. surpassed all the countries studied in providing its citizens with basic human needs and the highest material standard of living. The national vitality and security component indicated, however, that the U.S. may have lost, militarily and strategically, some of its influence and perceived power to the U.S.S.R.     

An analysis of the medical expense deduction under the U.S. income tax system

This article analyzes the medical expense deduction based on several years of Internal Revenue Service public use file detailed individual tax return data. The medical expense deduction is allowed by the U.S. Internal Revenue Code for individual income taxpayers who itemize their deductions with certain limitations. Our analysis reveals several interesting findings. In particular, change in the limitation for adjusted gross income has had a dramatic effect on the income profile of taxpayers who claim medical expense deductions (while medical expense dollars have increased dramatically). In addition, we find the medical expense deduction has a small but a generally progressive effect across the income spectrum of U.S. taxpayers. Furthermore, elimination of the medical expense deduction would have a modestly adverse effect on income equality.     

美国公司呈报全面收益方式研究及启示

本文对美国公司全面收益的呈报情况进行了研究,以确定在SFAS130发布后的几年间,美国公司主要以何种方式报告全面收益。研究显示,大多数公司在股东权益变动表列示其它全面收益和全面收益总额。目前,没有充分的证据表明全面收益能更好地预示未来现金流量或对股票价格有影响。     

DOES EDUCATION REDUCE INCOME INEQUALITY? A META‐REGRESSION ANALYSIS

This paper reexamines the effects of education on inequality through a comprehensive meta‐regression analysis of the extant empirical literature. We find that education affects the two tails of the distribution of income: Education reduces the income share of top earners and increases the share of the bottom earners. Education has been particularly effective in reducing inequality in Africa. Some of the results suggest that secondary schooling appears to have a stronger effect than primary schooling, though this finding is not always robust. The heterogeneity in reported estimates can be largely explained by differences in the specification of the econometric model and measure of inequality and education.     

Factors affecting delinquency of household credit in the U.S.: Does consumer sentiment play a role?

In this study, we provide both theoretical and empirical evidence on the determinants of household loan delinquency for home ownership, credit card and auto loans for the U.S. states in a panel framework over a period from 2003 through 2017. In particular, we examine the impact of consumer sentiments on loan delinquency rates. We show that improved current consumer sentiment significantly induce lower mortgage, credit card and automobile loan defaults in the American states subdivided into four different regions. We also find that the higher overall and expected consumer sentiment raise loan delinquencies. Implicit in this finding is the apparently excessive and inappropriate expansion of loans in the U.S. economy in the face of consumers’ optimism, which in turn, provides an intuitive understanding of the circumstances that could precede a depression or outbreak of anomalies in the financial sector. Our general findings further exhibit significant positive effect of unemployment rate and mostly adverse effect of per capita income on mortgage and automobile loan delinquency rates. The results provide some compelling evidence with regard to the effect of consumer confidence on household credit delinquency rates across various states in the U.S. and are robust to alternative measures of income and mortgage rates.     

Product diversification,production systems,and economic performance in U.S. agricultural production

The U.S. agricultural sector is experiencing significant structural change. Farm size is rising and activities are broadening, including more off-farm employment, implying economic incentives for larger and more diversified farms, and complementarities among agricultural netputs. We quantify such patterns for farms in the corn belt, by measuring scale economies, and output and input contributions and jointness. We estimate the multi-output and -input production technology by stochastic frontier techniques applied to output and input distance functions. We find that both scope and scale economies have important economic performance implications, and that an input-oriented framework including off-farm income best characterizes agricultural production.     

Boom, bust, and the poor: Poverty dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa, 1970–1999

This paper analyzes changes in poverty and inequality in the Middle East and North Africa. It finds that the structural relationship between poverty reduction, income growth and distribution is the same for MENA and other developing economies. Prior to 1985 rapid growth sharply reduced poverty. After 1985, despite very low income growth, a rising share of income accruing to the lowest quintile meant that the average income of the poor rose more rapidly than that of the non-poor. These unusual poverty dynamics were primarily due to international migration. Remittances both increased per capita incomes in labor exporting countries and increased the share of income accruing to the poor.     

Testing for infinite order stochastic dominance with applications to finance, risk and income inequality

In this paper we develop a test of infinite order degree stochastic dominance based on the use of the empirical Laplace transform function. Two applications are considered. One uses the income data of Anderson (Econometrica 64:1183–1193, 1996) and derives results consistent with his. In the other application we examine the dominance between the U.S. and U.K. stock markets. Using data on the S&P 500 and the FTALL-Share we show that the U.S. displays infinite order degree stochastic dominance of the U.K.

DOES GOVERNMENT SPENDING AFFECT INCOME INEQUALITY? A META-REGRESSION ANALYSIS

In this paper findings of a meta-regression analysis are presented exploring the effects of government spending on income inequality, with a particular focus on low- and middle-income countries. We identify a total of 84 separate studies containing over 900 estimates of the effect of one or more measures of spending on one or more measures of income inequality. The results show some evidence of a moderate negative relationship between government spending and income inequality, which is strongest for social welfare and other social spending, and when using the Gini coefficient or the top income share as the measure of inequality. However, both the size and direction of the estimated relationship between government spending and income inequality is affected by a range of other factors, including the control variables and estimation method used. We also find evidence of publication bias, in that negative estimates of the relationship appear to be under-reported in the literature.     

An Empirical Test of the Institutionalist View on Income InequalityEconomic Growth within the United States

This paper analyzes the relationship between income inequality and economic growth within the United States using state level data. It describes income inequality in the U.S. since 1960, then employs a two-step causal model to test the institutionalist contention that income inequality leads to socio-political instability, which has a negative impact on economic progress. The empirical results offer support for the institutionalist view.     

An Empirical Test of the Institutionalist View on Income Inequality

This paper analyzes the relationship between income inequality and economic growth within the United States using state level data. It describes income inequality in the U.S. since 1960, then employs a two‐step causal model to test the institutionalist contention that income inequality leads to socio‐political instability, which has a negative impact on economic progress. The empirical results offer support for the institutionalist view.     

Regional heterogeneity and U.S. presidential elections: Real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation

This paper exploits cross-sectional variation at the level of U.S. counties to generate real-time forecasts for the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The forecasting models are trained on data covering the period 2000–2016, using high-dimensional variable selection techniques. Our county-based approach contrasts the literature that focuses on national and state level data but uses longer time periods to train their models. The paper reports forecasts of popular and electoral college vote outcomes and provides a detailed ex-post evaluation of the forecasts released in real time before the election. It is shown that all of these forecasts outperform autoregressive benchmarks. A pooled national model using One-Covariate-at-a-time-Multiple-Testing (OCMT) variable selection significantly outperformed all models in forecasting the U.S. mainland national vote share and electoral college outcomes (forecasting 236 electoral votes for the Republican party compared to 232 realized). This paper also shows that key determinants of voting outcomes at the county level include incumbency effects, unemployment, poverty, educational attainment, house price changes, and international competitiveness. The results are also supportive of myopic voting: economic fluctuations realized a few months before the election tend to be more powerful predictors of voting outcomes than their long-horizon analogs.     

Structural change accounting with labor market distortions

This paper quantifies the relative importance of sectoral productivity and labor market distortions for structural change in the U.S., India, Mexico and Brazil between 1960 and 2005. I use census data to compute human capital by sector and infer labor market distortions as sectoral gaps in wage per unit of human capital. I incorporate these distortions into a model of structural change, and calibrate the model to reproduce the time paths of sectoral shares of labor and value added for each country. Counterfactuals reveal that (1) TFP growth in agriculture drives most of the decline in its share of labor; (2) the role of labor market distortions is limited.