非正规金融演进与农村金融制度变迁的机制分析

20世纪80年代中后期以来,我国农村广泛存在非正规金融现象,对非正规金融的演进以及农村金融制度变迁的内在机制进行分析具有重要意义.文章从探寻农村正规金融的制度缺失与非正规金融具有的经济效应、制度效应入手,运用制度变迁理论深入分析了非正规金融的演进与农村金融制度变迁的内在机制,并指出非正规金融的发展与农村金融制度变迁应是市场诱致性制度变迁与政府强制性制度变迁的结合.     

推进农村民间金融规范发展的思考

农村民间金融是满足农村经济发展需要的一种有效的融资机制。发展农村民间金融有利于解决“三农”及中小企业融资难问题;农村金融改革需要放开农村民间金融,形成细分市场;农村金融的改革与发展应以市场机制为基础,将正规金融市场与非正规金融市场结合起来。     

我国农村非正规金融组织的生存与发展

本文在正规金融组织逐渐淡出农村金融格局的背景下,考察了农村非正规金融组织的生存与发展状况。非正规金融组织凭借其＂民间性质＂,有效降低了农村地区金融抑制的程度,弥补了正规金融组织留下的金融空白,这与其窘迫的生存现状是不相对称的。基于资本市场多层次发展的战略选择,本文认为：我国应加强引导和发展农村非正规金融市场,使农村正规金融市场与非正规金融市场相互协调,以共同解决农村地区的金融问题。     

农村贷款行为的博弈分析

利用博弈论,分析了农村金融市场上正规金融机构面临信息不对称所导致的正规金融惜贷现象和非正规金融信息优势导致农村金融市场上非正规金融机构发展的内在原因。在分析正规金融机构和非正规金融组织在农村金融市场上优势互补的基础上,提出了二者合作的两种模式,指出正规金融与非正规金融互利合作增加农村金融供给实现多方共赢,从而让金融为农村经济发展作出更大的贡献。     

农村非正规金融组织演变、规模与政策选择

农村非正规金融事实上一直在中国农村金融市场中扮演着特殊角色,本文对国内非正规金融与民间金融两种概念进行了必要区分,并指出农村非正规金融组织演变进程是由原先的社会属性向经济属性、关系型信用向准契约型信用转变的过程.中国农村非正规金融的最终演变方向与政府政策选择有着密切联系,政府应该有效地整合农村非正规金融资源,将其纳入到正式制度的调节范围,使其最终成为中国农村金融体系中的重要组成部分.     

协调正规与非正规金融是重构农村金融体系的重要选择

近年来,非正规金融特别是民间借贷的异军突起已经受到了社会各方面的广泛关注。一方面反映出农村经济的发展对农村金融服务的需求越来越迫切,另一方面反映出我国农村金融体系特别是正规农村金融的发展已经严重滞后。从对有利于国家引导现代农业的形成来讲,应该加快正规农村金融的发展。     

制度、供需和绩效：多视角下的农村民间借贷——以宁夏盐池县、中宁县和同心县为例

农村民间借贷是典型的需求诱致性的金融制度变迁过程。通过对农村民间借贷的实证调查表明．民间借贷已不仅仅是农村正规金融的补充，学习并借鉴农村民间借贷的运行机制对引导民间借贷健康发展乃至整个农村金融市场建设意义重大。     

中国农村非正规金融管制机制研究

我国农村由于历史及制度方面原因,发展远落后于城市,尤其在资金方面存在较大差距,资金不足已成为制约农村经济发展的瓶颈.而正规的农村金融机构不能满足农户对于资金的需求,因此大力扶持和引导农村非正规金融机构的发展是十分必要的.本文分析了我国农村非正规金融的形成原因及发展现状,对其存在的问题进行了探讨,并提出在当前应利用非正规金融的优势,加强农村非正规金融组织的监管,明晰产权,让农村非正规金融与正规金融相结合促进农村经济的发展,促成农村一体化金融市场的形成.     

国家有效干预下我国农村金融消费市场的构建

农村金融消费市场的构建是破解农村经济发展问题的关键。基于国家政策的倾向性,当前中国正规金融实质上正有组织地从农村市场撤退;而以地下钱庄为代表的非正规金融由于先天缺陷,却不被国家所完全承认;以设立村镇银行为代表的外资金融发动蓝海战略,正逐步侵入中国传统的乡土社会。在传统自由市场经济理念下,无法实现正规金融、非正规金融及外资金融的有效整合,而三者的有效整合恰是农村金融消费市场构建的核心,国家有效干预理念正是在对正规金融干预不足和对非正规金融和外资金融干预过度的背景下提出。希望通过国家有效干预理念,正规金融、非正规金融及外资金融能够实现均衡共存,推动农村金融消费市场的构建和完善。     

新型农村金融机构法律制度的改革与创新要点

新型农村金融机构法律制度的改革,应破除体制内正规金融压制体制外非正规金融的路径依赖,摒弃建构主义规则对民间资本的歧视,合并小额贷款公司与贷款公司称谓,建立小额贷款公司、村镇银行和农村商业银行牌照升级转换制度框架,完善与其风险相匹配的合规监管制度,形成农村小型商业金融与合作金融两驱动、一体化的新型农村金融机构法律框架,从根本上发展适宜三农金融需求的农村金融组织。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing ...     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.