我国证券市场中小投资者非理性羊群行为分析

一、羊群行为的概念 2007年我国股市上证综指突破6124点,但4个月后的2008年第一季度,就下跌到3357点,股票指数的剧烈波动,充分说明了我国大部分投资者的投资是一种非理性的投资行为,即羊群行为。证券市场中的羊群行为是一种非理性的行为,它是指投资者在信息环境不确定的情况下,行为受到其他投资者的影响,模仿他人的决策,或者过度依赖于舆论,而不考虑自己的信息的行为。在我国股市中,中小投资者所占比例很大,但往往缺乏对个股投资价值的分析和研究,没有自主明晰的投资策略,因此,不得不追随其他投资者行动的行为。这种投资行为在市场上有较强的传导效应,是一种被动盲从的投资行为。     

基于数据挖掘技术的股票市场预测分析实例研究

本文主要研究数据挖掘技术在股票市场价格预测中的应用,重点采用数据挖掘分类和聚类算法对大盘走势和个股走势进行分析研究,采用实体数据进行挖掘分析,总结得出有益于投资者的结论。     

投资需察市场风格转换

熟悉A股市场运行特点的投资者都明白，想要在复杂的市场上分得一杯羹，不仅需要勇气。更需要把握行情中的结构性特点，如果把握不了个股和板块的结构性特点，宝贵的盈利点也会擦肩而过。     

我国上市公司会计政策选择的动因分析

随着资本市场的发展,财务信息的决策价值得到显著提高,而会计政策选择直接影响到企业会计信息质量。本文以我团上市公司操纵会计政策进行盈余管理,误导投资者进而影响资本市场运行效率为背景,剖析上市公司会计政策选择的动因和机会主义行为并提出规范会计政策选择以使资本市场有效运行的相关建议。     

论会计信息披露管制的目标与框架体系

在证券市场上,会计信息披露管制是与投资者利益保护密切相关的一个问题,本文就此与之相关的问题作一探讨。一、会计信息披露管制的市场基础市场经济中,证券市场是筹集并分配资本以满足有竞争力的投资需求的最基本手段,因此,社会期望市场能有效运转。根据法码有效市场假设,理想化的市场是其价格提供准确的资源配置信号,亦即在证券价格于任何时候均能“充分反映”所有可用信息这一假设基础上,公司作出生产投资决策,而投资者选择代表公司所有权的证券,价格充分反映可用信息的市场可称为“有效”。由于不同的信息对价格的影响程度不同,从而反映…     

行业动量赢利性分析

行业投资已经成为我国机构投资者重要的投资策略,个股动量现象在国内和国外股票市场上均存在。将行业投资策略和个股动量策略结合起来的行业动量策略将综合两者的优点,在长期和短期内均获得超额收益。本文利用我国股票市场的数据来实证行业动量的赢利性特征,实证结果支持本文的论点。     

基于行为视角的上市公司信息披露策略解读

行为财务学的一个基本假设就是资本市场上的投资者是非理性的,他们在决策过程中会有各种各样的心理偏差。因此,上市公司管理层在进行相关决策时就应考虑投资者的这些非理性行为。文章基于行为财务学中的非理性经济人的假设和心理学的相关理论,研究投资者的非理性行为对管理层信息披露策略选择的影响,并给出了理论解释和相关建议。     

基于乔治·索罗斯反射性理论的房地产市场分析

根据传统的经济学观点,资产市场价格是依据资产内在价值决定的。理性投资者通过对信息的挖掘,按照信息所包含的内在价值在市场上标价,以供求均衡的形式确定价格。噪声作为对市场定价的随机干扰,总体上相互抵消,不影响定价的有效性。乔治·索罗斯认为这种观点不能正确反映市场的本质．他提出,市场价格作为投资者对基本因素的评价,并不是无偏的和被动的,     

异质投资者与资产定价:一个新的资本资产定价模型

关于资产价格的研究，大多是建立在完关市场的假设下。本文提出了一个不完关市场中的资产定价模型。从投资者的资金成本差异和信息不对称的角度出发，探讨了不确定状态下异质投资者对资产价格的影响，并从模型的讨论结果中得到了一些政策含义。     

差异化营销策略对农村信用社选择发展战略的启示

差异化营销是市场营销学中一种较为普遍采用的目标市场营销策略。所谓差异化营销,是指面对已经细分的市场,企业选择两个以上或多个子市场作为目标市场,分别制定和实施价格策略、分销渠道策略和促销策略。笔者仅从市场营销的角度,谈一下差异化营销对农村信用社发展战略选择的影响。     

Real Earnings Management and Information Asymmetry in the Equity Market

The literature suggests that real earnings management (REM) activities can increase adverse selection risk in capital markets. Due to their opacity and the difficulties in understanding their implications, REM strategies may increase the level of information asymmetry among investors. This paper examines the association between earnings management through real activities manipulation and information asymmetry in the equity market. To estimate the level of adverse selection risk we use a comprehensive index of information asymmetry measures proposed by the market microstructure literature. For a sample of Spanish listed firms, we find that firms’ strategies of increasing earnings through REM are associated with higher information asymmetry in those firms that meet last year’s earnings. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that earnings management through real activities manipulation garbles the market, enhances private information production, and exacerbates information asymmetry in the stock market.     

短期内机构投资者行为和股票价格的互作分析

研究短期内机构投资者行为与不同规模公司股价的相互影响.在机构投资者对股价的影响方面,阐释并论证了机构持股比例增量与当日股价的正相关关系,指出机构对大盘股的影响强于对小盘股的影响.机构资金流入(流出)的定性信息本身对股价上升(下降)有额外的促进作用;相对于撤资而言,股价对机构的注资行为更敏感;而对小盘股,该不对称性更加明显.此外,当日收益率和前三天内的机构资金流入存在负相关关系,且该种负关系在大盘股中的表现比在小盘股中更为明显.在股价对机构投资者行为的反馈作用方面,以实证结果阐明了股价上升(下降)的信息本身可对机构行为有缓冲作用,且该作用对小盘股影响大于对大盘股的影响.研究显示,在短期内机构更倾向于动量交易,这在小盘股中尤为明显.三天前收益率对当日机构行为的影响颇为明显,且与一天前的收益率的影响力相当;相对而言,两天前收益率对机构行为的影响不甚明显.     

Brokers’ financial network and stock return

Brokerage firms are usually not only known for trading stocks for their retail clients in return for commission fee but also known for being information distributors of their clients’ investment recommenders. However, only a few studies have examined investors’ trading behaviors within a brokerage firm. This study proposes a financial network model in modeling the information diffusion process of investors within brokerage firms and investigates the potential effect of interconnectedness among brokerage firms on stock returns. We find that the centrality of brokerage firms has strong explanatory power to stock returns even if we control for the Fama–French pricing factors and other characteristics of stock.     

Adaptive market hypothesis: The story of the stock markets and COVID-19 pandemic

Since the level of markets’ information efficiency is key to profiteering by strategic players, Shocks; such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can play a role in the nature of markets’ information efficiency. The martingale difference and conditional heteroscedasticity tests are used to evaluate the Adaptive form of market efficiency for four (4) major stock market indexes in the top four affected economies during the COVID-19 pandemic (USA, Brazil, India, and Russia). Generally, based on the martingale difference spectral test, there is no evidence of a substantial change in the levels of market efficiency for the US and Brazilian stock markets in the short, medium, and long term. However, in the long term, the Indian stock markets became more information inefficient after the coronavirus outbreak while the Russian stock markets become more information efficient. Intuitively, these affect the forecastability and predictability of these markets’ prices and/or returns. Thereby, informing the strategic and trading actions of stock investors (including arbitrageurs) towards profit optimization, portfolio asset selection, portfolio asset adjustment, etc. Similar policy implications are further discussed.     

The Information Content of Concurrently Announced Earnings, Cash Dividends, and Stock Dividends: An Investigation of the Chinese Stock Market

The firms listed on China's stock market are less than ten years old and to date there has been relatively little research on the usefulness of their accounting disclosures for investors. This study focuses on the information content of annual earnings and dividend announcements made by listed Chinese companies. Earnings, cash dividends, and stock dividends are announced concurrently in China and so this allows for tests of their information usefulness and of the interactions between the three signals. Based on a data set of up to 1,232 announcements, we find that unexpected earnings, proxied by earnings changes, are positively related to abnormal returns. Thus, earnings are used by investors in setting market prices. Stock dividends corroborate or attenuate the earnings signal. If the sign of the unexpected stock dividend (increase, decrease) is the same as the sign of the unexpected earnings, then the earnings signal is stronger. If the signs are opposite, the earnings signal is weaker. Unexpected cash dividends have little impact on the earnings signal. Stock dividends per se have a small association with stock returns. In contrast, cash dividends have no discernible association with stock returns and this is consistent with dividend irrelevance arguments. Our results are robust across a number of sensitivity tests.     

Institutional investors' attention to environmental information,trading strategies,and market impacts: Evidence from China

Using a large proprietary database of intraday high‐frequency trading, we investigate the trading strategies of institutional investors in dealing with the negative environmental event disclosure of listed companies and their impact on markets, aiming to reveal the mechanism of the lack of “green efficiency” in China's capital market from the perspective of institutional investors. The results show that institutional investors react to negative environmental events prior to the announcements, indicating premature information leakage in the market; in addition, their trading behaviors mitigate the immediate effect of negative environmental event announcements on stock price. After the event is disclosed, institutional investors engage in short‐term selling and long‐term buy and hold. This trading strategy undermines the irrational selling of individual investors in the event of disclosure, short‐term decline in stock price, and long‐term reversal of market overreaction. In a China context, institutional investors generally take environmental information into consideration. However, they fail to recognize the long‐term value effect of negative environmental events and instead cater to trading strategies towards market volatility.     

Dynamic interaction of risk–return trade-offs between oil market and China’s stock market: An analysis from the risk preferences perspective

The risk–return trade-off refers to the compensation required by investors for bearing risks, which can be viewed as the risk preference of investors in a market. The current study investigates the dynamic interdependence of risk–return trade-offs between China’s stock market and the crude oil market from the perspective of risk preference of investors, which is designed to explore the transmission process of investors’ risk preference in both markets. Specifically, this study applies the time-varying parameter GARCH-M model, namely TVP-GARCH-M model, to characterize the time-dependent risk–return trade-offs (investors’ risk preferences) in the crude oil and China’s stock markets, then examines their relationship through Granger causality tests. Results show that a variation in risk preferences of the oil market investors can dramatically cause a variation in risk preferences of the Chinese stock market investors, while the risk preference of investors in the Chinese stock market does not lead to that in the crude oil market, which is in accordance with expectations. The dynamic effect of investors’ risk appetite in the crude oil market is further examined by the TVP-VAR model. The findings of this work suggest that there generally exists a positive impact of investors’ risk preference in the oil market and that the effect is time-varying to a greater degree during the short and medium term. Moreover, responses of the Chinese stock market investors’ risk preference were more significant during the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, the empirical results remain robust when applying alternative crude oil prices and China’s stock prices.     

President’s Tweets,US-China economic conflict and stock market Volatility: Evidence from China and G5 countries

This study provides empirical evidence that the tweets from US President Donald J. Trump influence the trading decisions of investors worldwide. We examine the effects of Trump’s tweets related to China on stock market volatility in China and the G5 countries. Our results show that Trump’s original tweets related to the US-China economic conflict expand volatility in stock markets worldwide, and the US-China trade friction intensifies this effect. Furthermore, Trump’s tweets with different sentiments have different impacts on the returns of global stock markets. Our findings confirm that international investors may make their investment decisions based on information conveyed in these tweets.     

Foreign investors and stock price efficiency: Thresholds,underlying channels and investor heterogeneity

This paper examines the relationship between foreign shareholding and stock price efficiency for Malaysian public listed firms over the 2002–2009 sample period. We use stock price delay as an inverse measure of price efficiency, and consider the speed of adjustment to local and global common factor information. The results show that foreign investors accelerate the incorporation of both types of common information into the prices of Malaysian stocks, mainly due to their superior skills in processing systematic market-wide factors. However, we find evidence of optimality in foreign shareholding, suggesting that the efficiency benefit disappears after foreign ownership exceeds a certain threshold level. Further analyses shed lights on the channels and moderating variables driving this non-monotonic relationship. Our disaggregate analysis on foreign investor heterogeneity shows that foreign investors who trade through nominee accounts are elite processors of public market-wide and firm-specific news in the Malaysian stock market.     

Retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity

The paper investigates the relation between retail investors’ participation in trading and aggregate stock market liquidity. The findings show a positive and significant relation between retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity. Examination of the determinants of retail investors’ trading reveals that, on average, retail investors with more diversified trading activity tend to trade when liquidity is higher, the frequency of their arrival to the market is not affected by the level of liquidity, and retail investors are willing to trade at a lower liquidity level as sellers than as buyers. Moreover, retail investors’ trading does not create price noise at the aggregate market level. Overall, the evidence suggests that retail investors contribute to market quality.