Dynamic Lobbying Conflicts

This paper analyzes a dynamic lobbying model in which two antagonistic lobbies compete with each other for a prize over two time periods that are linked through status quo bias. The attacker has to decide whether to attempt an attack on the status quo already in the first period or whether to wait. We identify how the attacker’s behavior in the dynamic model differs from that in a comparable static model. Two antagonistic effects are the “option value effect” that is similar to the real option effect in the theory of investment decisions under uncertainty; and a “defender discouragement effect” that often makes change cheaper to achieve than in a comparable static model.      

OSHA inspections: Process and outcomes in programmed inspections versus complaint-investigated inspections

Inspections are an important tool for enforcing OSHA regulations. As with any enforcement procedure, OSHA inspections are an effective tool to the extent that they are conducted in a consistent manner. In this study we compared 3,000 inspections randomly initiated by OSHA with 3,000 inspections conducted by OSHA in response to an employee complaint. Significant differences in both process and outcome variables were found between the two types of inspections. We discuss the findings in terms of the “threat effect” as a tool for enforcement of OSHA safety standards.     

Impact of relational norms, supplier development and trust on supplier performance

Supplier relationship management and supplier development initiatives assume a fundamental role in enterprise supply chain management. An important aspect of effective supplier relationship management is the role of trust. This paper seeks to understand whether supplier relationship management or supplier development initiative should be emphasized as a firm strives to achieve superior supplier performance. The analysis and discussion draws upon sourcing strategy literature and is based on empirical survey-data of mid to upper level managers with responsibility for supply management initiatives in their respective organizations in Denmark and in the USA. It examines the interrelationships among “relational norms”, “trust”, “supplier development initiatives” and ensuing “supplier performance”. The data analysis shows that firms must emphasize relation and trust building activities before investing in supplier development initiative. Supplier perception audits must be routinely performed to gauge the level of trust and strength of relational norms.     

Competitive market equilibrium under asymmetric information

This paper studies the existence of a competitive market equilibrium under asymmetric information. There are two agents involved in the trading of the risky assets: an “informed” trader and an “ordinary” trader. The market is competitive and the ordinary agent can infer the insider information from the price dynamics of the risky assets. The insider information is considered to be the total supply of the risky assets. The definition of market equilibrium is based on the law of supply-demand as described by a rational expectations equilibrium of the Grossman and Stiglitz (Am Econ Rev 70:393–408, 1980) model. We show that equilibrium can be attained by linear dynamics of an admissible price process of the risky assets for a given linear supply dynamics.      

Determining of threat perceptions affecting direction of the US defense expenditures by using ordinal regression models

The article examines whether the US threat perceptions defined in terms of federal government national defense outlays in billions of constant (FY 2000) dollars change along with periodical changes in international politics between 1945 and 2007. Three different models affecting direction of the US defense expenditures are developed. The first model are estimated by using five link functions even though results of only two of them, complementary log–log and cauchit, are presented. As complementary log–log produced the best results, others models are predicted by using only this function. The parameter estimates of complementary log–log function for the first model indicate that four of these variables (Ford, Carter, Reagan and Bush Sr.) out of eleven are significant in the category of presidents. “Truman Docrtrine/Cominform”, “Korean War”, “Vietnam War”, and “Invasion of Iraq” also seem to be the important independent variables on empirical grounds for the first model. While “Party”, “Invasion of Iraq”, “Vietnam War”, “Korean War”, and “Cuban Missile Crisis” constitute the important independent variables on empirical grounds for the second model, “Korean War”, “Vietnam War”, “Invasion of Iraq”, “Truman Docrtrine/Cominform”, “The Cold War and New World Order”, and “Cuban Missile Crisis” are important independent variables on empirical grounds for the third model. Estimations based on these three models therefore suggest that aforementioned independent variables do indeed have effect on the US defense expenditures.     

An examination of estimation and specification error biases in estimates of option prices generated by Black-Scholes and Cox-Ross models

In this paper the author identifies and examines the estimation and specification error biases of the Black-Scholes and Cox-Ross models by using both analytical and monte-carlo simulation techniques. Several hypotheses are tested. The central hypothesis is whether or not the estimation error bias in the correctly specified model is large enough to make researchers mistakenly pick the “wrong” model as being the “correct” one. The findings in this study support this hypothesis. It is shown that there is a bias toward accepting the Cox-Ross model as correct, even if the Black-Scholes is assumed to be the true model for pricing options.     

Some models and measures for evaluating performances with DEA: past accomplishments and future prospects

This paper covers some of the past accomplishments of DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) and some of its future prospects. It starts with the “engineering-science” definitions of efficiency and uses the duality theory of linear programming to show how, in DEA, they can be related to the Pareto–Koopmans definitions used in “welfare economics” as well as in the economic theory of production. Some of the models that have now been developed for implementing these concepts are then described and properties of these models and the associated measures of efficiency are examined for weaknesses and strengths along with measures of distance that may be used to determine their optimal values. Relations between the models are also demonstrated en route to delineating paths for future developments. These include extensions to different objectives such as “satisfactory” versus “full” (or “strong”) efficiency. They also include extensions from “efficiency” to “effectiveness” evaluations of performances as well as extensions to evaluate social-economic performances of countries and other entities where “inputs” and “outputs” give way to other categories in which increases and decreases are located in the numerator or denominator of the ratio (=engineering-science) definition of efficiency in a manner analogous to the way output (in the numerator) and input (in the denominator) are usually positioned in the fractional programming form of DEA. Beginnings in each of these extensions are noted and the role of applications in bringing further possibilities to the fore is highlighted.

Regional information and market efficiency: the case of spread betting in United States college football

Using game results over a seven year span (1999–2006), we find that United States college football teams in arid regions “win” against the spread in 56.64% of games in which they host a team from a humid region. This result provides statistically significant evidence for both weak and strong form inefficiency in the spread betting markets of such games. By examining other cases of intraregional and interregional competition within the sport, we conclude that this inefficiency does not arise from the effects of travel or home field advantage. Rather, the result indicates that climate aridity is an observed characteristic for which college football betting markets do not accurately control. It is quite rare to find strong form market inefficiency arise from a single variable rather than from an elaborate, multivariable betting strategy. Therefore, the effect of climate aridity upon college football spread betting market efficiency can be characterized as dramatic. It is conjectured that remote market participants may need to “experience” certain types of relevant regional information, such as climate, to act in a market efficient manner.     

Market efficiency and NCAA college basketball gambling

The betting market for NCAA college basketball is examined from the 1996–97 season through 2003–04. In the overall sample, market efficiency cannot be rejected. For big favorites, specifically those favorites of 20 or more, a simple strategy of betting the underdog in these games is shown to reject the null hypothesis of a fair bet since the underdog wins more than implied by efficiency. This bias appears to be the same as in other sports. The home-team bias in college basketball is shown to be the opposite of the other sports, however, since big favorites win more often than implied by efficiency. Potential reasons for this bias such as NCAA tournament incentives and uniformity of playing conditions are discussed.     

Social Distance,Respondent Cooperation and Item Nonresponse in Sex Survey

This paper examines the ways in which the number of item nonresponses is determined by social distance and/or interview rapport, with a focus on responses of “refusal” and “don’t know”, implying the respondent’s lack of willingness and ability to provide substantive responses to sensitive questions. The data analyzed were from 39 self- administered questions concerning sexual attitudes and behaviors in the 2002 Taiwan Social Change Survey for module “Family and Changing Gender Role”. Poisson Regression in 2-level Hierarchical Linear Model was employed to enhance the accuracy of the analysis of the accumulation of “don’t know” and “refusal” responses. The results showed that respondent cooperation significantly decreased the number of both “don’t know” and “refusal” replies. The decrease was not conditioned by any kind of social distance. Age and education distances have respectively negative and positive effect on the number of “don’t know” and “refusal” answers. The married–married interview produced more “don’t know” and “refusal” than other paired interview types. The larger the ethnicity distance is, the more “refusal” appears. The substantial findings imply that the effects of social-distance and rapport (respondent cooperation) on the number of item nonresponses deserve more attention in research on survey methodology. The divergent findings on gender-distance effect and marital-status effect, however, call for replication studies in the future.     

Causality in qualitative and quantitative research

We are flooded with a wave of writings on causality in the social sciences during the last decades. The same holds for the relationship between quantitative and qualitative research in the social sciences. An enormous amount of texts appears on (causality in) qualitative research, mostly in a controversy with quantitative research. These writings induced us to develop the thesis of “unity in diversity”, i.e., that there is no difference “in principle” between causality in qualitative and quantitative research, because both are supported by what I will call an “experimental logic”. In developing this thesis a plea is being made for going back to the sources. A historical overview of theories of causality is presented, which develops into two prominent views: INUS-causation and causal realism. A historical framework is also outlined for the opposition between quantitative and qualitative research, in which French positivism and British empiricism are opposed to German neo-kantianism and neo-hegelianism. After having developed the thesis of “unity in diversity” for this historical framework, the same is being done for the recent literature: “mixed methods research”, the book DSI of KKV, the reactions of David Collier and “QCA” of Charles Ragin. At the end the question of small-n research and the case n = 1 is examined.     

The Use of Mixed Methods Models and Designs in the Human Sciences: Problems and Prospects

The article explores some of the emerging issues in the newly developing area of Mixed Methods (MM) research. Two of these issues concern the possibility of whether MM can provide for both “diverse” and “severe” testing. Based on a model of Placeholder Effects and utilizing an example of current empirical research, it is concluded that certain varieties of MM are potentially more robust than others in fulfilling the diverse and severe criteria. It is also argued that MM must concern itself with formulating “procedural rules” which guide the researcher in choosing and applying appropriate strategies for specific research problems.     

Are day traders bias free?—evidence from internet stock message boards

This study addresses the issue whether day traders’ recommendations on stocks are biasfree. We test whether on average day traders’ “Hold” sentiment is skewed and different from a neutral opinion. Posted messages and mature text classifier technology provide a novel approach to analyze the content of these “Hold” sentiment postings among day traders. Findings indicate that the self-disclosed “Hold” sentiment conveys an optimistic opinion and significantly differs from neutral. These results help both investors and researchers to better understand day traders’ psychology and behaviors when they recommend stocks. The paper also provides insight into the construction of future online sentiment indexes based on stock message boards.     

Does sentiment explain consumption?

This paper examines whether “consumer sentiment,” an often neglected variable, explains consumption expenditures for Australia. Since household consumption accounts for more than 60 percent of U.S. GDP and a similar proportion in other developed economies, fluctuations in consumption may result in significant changes in the state of the economy. Therefore, we develop a theoretical model that suggests why consumer sentiment may influence consumption expenditures. Furthermore, using a carefully specified consumption function as the “test-bed,” we consider empirically whether there is an independent impact of sentiment on consumption. Our results suggest that consumer sentiment does influence variations in consumption expenditure.     

The Use of Indices in Surveys

The paper deals with some new indices for ordinal data that arise from sample surveys. Their aim is to measure the degree of concentration to the “positive” or “negative” answers in a given question. The properties of these indices are examined. Moreover, methods for constructing confidence limits for the indices are discussed and their performance is evaluated through an extensive simulation study. Finally, the values of the indices defined and their confidence intervals are calculated for an example with real data. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Pareto improving interventions in a general equilibrium model with private provision of public goods

Most of the literature on government intervention in models of voluntary public goods supply focuses on interventions that increase the total level of a public good, which is considered to be typically underprovided. However, an intervention that is successful in increasing the public good level need not benefit everyone. In this paper we take a direct approach to welfare properties of voluntary provision equilibria in a full blown general equilibrium model with public goods and study interventions that have the goal of Pareto improving on the voluntary provision outcome. Towards this end, we study a model with many private goods and non-linear production technology for the public good, and hence allow for relative price effects to serve as a powerful channel of intervention. In this setup we show that Pareto improving interventions generally do exist. In particular, direct government provision financed by “small” , or “local” , lump-sum taxes can be used generically to Pareto improve upon the voluntary provision outcome.     

Verbesserung des nicht-randomisierten exakten Testes von R.A. Fisher

Summary The so-called Exact Test of R. A. Fisher for comparing two probabilitiesp ₁ andp ₂ in a Fourfold-Table with small cell frequencies is known as a UMPU-Test. But in practice the test is used in a nonrandomized, often tabulated version. Given a certain level of significanceα it is shown: the critical region of this nonrandomized test, referred to as “Fisher 1”, can be enlarged considerably. For instance for all sample-size-sums up to 20 andα=0.01 the total number of points in the critical regions of “Fisher 1” is 552 whereas the analogous number of the new version “Fisher 2” is 788. The size of tables for “Fisher 2” can be reduced considerably because the main parts of the critical regions can be described by the aid of some Chi-square-test versions. In particular Yates’ continuity-correction turns out to be always conservative in the above mentioned region relative to “Fisher 2” whereas this is not strictly true relative to “Fisher 1”.      

Contingent payments in selection contests

The early literature on research contests stressed the advantages of a fixed prize in inspiring R&D effort. More recently the focus has moved towards endogenizing the rewards to research activity in these tournament settings, since this can induce extra effort or enhance the surplus of the buyer. We focus on a research contest as a means of selecting a partner for an R&D enterprise, in an informational setting in which the established providers of R&D services know more about each others’ relative capabilities than does the buyer/sponsor. An alternative use of our model is in choosing between prospective patentees where the Patent Trading Office has less information on the patents than the competitors. This asymmetry creates a source of inefficiency if a rank order contest is used as a selection device; we show how the contest can be modified to improve selection efficiency, while maintaining its simplicity (as only ordinal information is required). The modification that we suggest involves endogenizing the prizes that are awarded contingent upon whether a contestant wins or loses the contest. Furthermore, the payment system and the selection mechanism are detail-free. This paper is part of the project “The Knowledge-Based Society” sponsored by the Research Council of Norway (project 172603/V10).     

Are government-linked IPOs underpriced? A three country privatization effort comparison

Underpricing in the case of the initial public offerings of private (non-government) firms has been well documented. However, there does not appear to be any systematic study of the price performance of “government-linked” companies or GLCs, which have been “privatized” through public offerings in the stock market. This study examines the hypothesis that the initial public offerings (IPOs) of such companies in the United Kingdom, Singapore, and Malaysia will not only be underpriced, but their degree of underpricing will be relatively greater when compared to firms with no governmental links. The results provide strong support for this hypothesis.     

Notes and Comments: An approximation of caplet implied volatilities in Gaussian models

Abstract It is market practice to quote interest rate derivatives traded “over the counter” in terms of their implied volatility. For this reason, the term structure of at-the-money cap volatilities as well as the volatility surface of at-the-money swaptions are directly observed. This paper analyzes the case of caps. Any analysis of these markets would most likely report two main facts. The first is that the level of the volatility is inversely related to the level of the interest rates. The second is that the term structure is either a decreasing or a humped function of maturity. For a reference, see Rebonato (2003) and Brigo and Mercurio (2001). Rebonato (2003) suggests that the structure of implied volatility is humped in periods of normal market conditions and decreasing when markets are “excited”. Interpreting and explaining such phenomena is indeed an interesting and important issue. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B70 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: E43, C13