论我国利率市场化

目前我国利率的经济效应研究利率的经济效应，实际上也就是研究利率与诸如投资、消费和储蓄等宏观经济变量之间的实证关系，也就是探讨利率政策的有效性问题。一个高度发达的利率体系，对各种经济变量的影响是相当迅捷的，我国的这种传递机制较弱：１．利率与投资的相关性。一般而言，利率和投资之间是成负相关关系，利率越高，投资越少；利率越低，投资越多。但这种负相关关系，目前我国还不具备。有学者研究表明，改革开放以来，贷款利率的变化与全社会固定资产投资增幅之间不存在明显负相关关系。贷款利率与实际投资增幅之间不存在明显相…     

人民币隔夜利率互换境内外市场联动效应研究

本文研究了2008年-2010年期间3个月、6个月、9个月和1年期的以隔夜SHIBOR为标的的境外无本金交割人民币隔夜利率互换市场和境内人民币隔夜利率互换市场的联动效应,通过采用Granger因果检验和二元BEKK-GARCH(1,1)模型进行检验分析。研究发现:境内外市场之间无明显的报酬溢出效应;仅3个月期境内外市场存在显著双向波动溢出,其他期限均表现为境内对境外的单向波动溢出;动态相关性分析表明各期限境内外利率互换报价基本保持同向变化,但关系不稳定;央行基准利率的调整事件对相关系数的变化方向有显著影响。     

2002—2003年货币政策：绩效、问题与建议

2002年，中国人民银行继续执行稳健的货币政策，完善金融监管和服务，取得突出成效，但同时也存在一些问题。2003年，宜在保持货币政策连续性的前提下，适度增加货币供应量，保持人民币存贷款利率水平的稳定；进行金融结构改革，解决中小企业、农村地区贷款难问题，引导资金合理流向；完善货币市场，加速利率市场化进程；积极有效发展资本市场，广开投资渠道。     

利率市场化与国有企业困境的相关性分析

在市场定价的环境里，作为货币政策的首选中介目标，利率成为实现宏观经济间接调控的最有的杠杆之一。作为资金的价格，利率影响着经济主体的投资和消费行为，使社会财富得以有效分配。利率市场化在市场体系的构建中处于基础地位。然而多年以来，在诸多领域的市场化改革之后，我国的利率市场化改革却进程缓慢。一个流行的观点认为，基本的制约因素是国有企业的困境一直未得到根本性的改观。本文就利率市场化改革与国有企业当前困境的相关性进行深入分析，在对“国企困境是利率市场化改革推进的基本制约”观点提出质疑的基础上，得出利率市场化与国企改革正相关的结论。     

论国有资本投资的有向性

为了维护国有资本的增值性、构建国民经济的基础以及其他社会资本的良好运行环境,在资本总量下降的情况下,国有资本投资要保持一定的方向。所谓国有资本投资的有向性,就是指在我国市场型、对外开放型的宏观经济环境中,有限的国有资本只有优先投资基础产业、基础设施、支柱产业以及高科技产业等行业、领域,具有方向性,才可能实现其双重职能(增值职能和社会调控职能)的动态均衡,保持国民经济持续、稳定、健康地发     

利率市场化及其传导效率的时变效应——基于DSGE和SV-TVP-VAR模型的分析

文章首先构建新凯恩斯DSGE模型从理论上模拟了我国政策利率传导的基准效应,然后构建SV-TVP-VAR模型实证研究了利率市场化进程中传导的时变效应并根据基准效应计算了传导效率。DSGE理论模拟结果显示,在理想的情况下政策利率可以传导至产出、价格、消费、投资等变量以及影响劳动力市场和工资水平,同时理想的政策利率传导没有时滞效应。从持续期来看,政策利率冲击对产出、价格、消费、投资、劳动力需求等变量的调控效果在中长期趋于收敛,但对工资的影响并没有表现出收敛趋势。基于SV-TVP-VAR模型的实证结果表明,我国政策利率对产出、通货膨胀率、消费、投资变量均产生了良好的逆周期调控效果,对通货膨胀率、消费和投资的调控存在一定的时滞效应。综合两个模型结果的进一步分析表明,随着利率市场化的推进,政策利率对产出、通货膨胀率、消费、投资的传导效率不断提升,1996-2019年对四个变量的传导效率分别由43%、27%、18%、52%上升至86%、36%、54%、95%。文章推断,所有制差异和利率双轨制可能是现阶段制约传导效率提升的两大问题,应以破解利率双轨制逐步取消存贷款基准利率为抓手推进利率市场化,形成政策利率向市场基准利率再到货币市场、债券市场、信贷市场利率的联动传导机制,同时通过国有企业改革打破预算软约束,弱化信贷方面隐性担保的体制优势,使得所有市场主体真正对利率变动敏感,政策调控可以更加顺畅地传导至实体经济。文章的边际贡献在于综合理论模拟和实证研究为利率传导效率和利率市场化分析提供了一个新的思路。     

论利率市场化对投资理财的影响

正中国利率市场化是一个必然的发展趋势,不以人的意志为转移。利率市场化必然给我们的经济社会生活带来广泛的影响,其中,对居民投资理财的影响是一个重要的方面。本文梳理了利率市场化后对居民投资理财的影响,并对居民在利率市场化后的投资理财给出几条政策建议。一、利率市场化对投资理财的影响利率市场化后,居民投资理财的行为必将发生变化,对投资理财市场必将产生比较大的冲击,主要有以下几个方面:     

中国的自然利率与经济增长、通货膨胀的关系

本文利用新凯恩斯动态模型对中国长、短期自然利率进行估计,并利用估计结果计算出实际利率缺口。通过对中国自然利率的研究发现,实际利率高于长期自然利率时,投资处于受抑制状态,阻碍经济增长;实际利率等于甚至低于长期自然利率时,对经济增长起促进作用。另外,实际利率缺口与 GDP 偏移率呈明显的负相关关系。实际利率缺口减小使得 GDP 偏移率增大,而GDP 偏移率的增大又引起通货膨胀率的上升,反之则相反。因此,为了在稳定通货膨胀的同时继续保持适度的经济增长速度,应采用稳健的财政政策和货币政策,缩小实际利率缺口。     

浅谈我国的利率市场化改革

利率市场化,就是把利率从以往由中央银行依靠行政手段来制定,转变为由金融市场上资金的供求关系来决定。也就是说,通过市场机制的经济手段,使利率按照价值规律自发调节,从而最终形成一个以中央银行基准利率为核心,以市场利率为中介,通过资金供求决定商业银行存贷款利率,同时中央银行保持对利率市场进行宏观调控的市场利率体系。     

中国房地产投资及政策调控的有效性

多年来我国房地产市场呈现过快过热发展,我国政府也不断出台各种政策来调控房地产业的发展。本文基于2007年1月至2015年3月的月度数据,利用误差修正模型和Johansen检验着重分析了货币供应量、存贷利率、房产税三个变量对我国房地产投资的短期和长期影响。结果显示,货币供应量和房产税对我国房地产投资的影响显著,利率对房地产投资的影响并不显著,货币供应量与房地产投资呈正相关关系,利率和房产税与房地产投资呈负相关关系。     

The Impact of the US Interest Rate Hike on Emerging Market Economies and the Belt and Road Initiative

Since the end of 2015, the US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate nine times. This has led to capital outflows and asset depreciation in many emerging market economies. The present paper examines the factors that determine the financial volatility of emerging markets in the face of external shocks. By calculating the capital flows of 30 emerging markets from 1990 to 2018 and conducting panel regression, this paper finds that countries with good infrastructure facilities, a sound banking system and high economic growth have significantly lower cross‐border financial risks. An implication from the empirical analysis is that emerging countries would benefit greatly by actively taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative. The framework of the Belt and Road Initiative allows emerging countries better access to China's massive consumer market to promote trade and long‐term growth. Their quality of infrastructure can be improved through cooperation with China in infrastructure investment. They can also jointly establish a cooperative financial framework to enhance regional financial stability. These strategies will reduce systematic financial risks and counteract the negative impacts of US interest rate hikes.     

Understanding the investment of renewable energy firms in the face of economic policy uncertainty – Micro-evidence from listed companies in China

With the development of renewable energy, the current support for China's renewable energy industry has gradually shifted from “helping its development and expansion” to “helping it resists systemic risks and strengthens market competition”. Therefore, there is an urgent need to study how the strategic investment of renewable energy companies is affected by economic policy uncertainty. This paper first robustly explores the non-linear relationship between strategic investment and economic policy uncertainty of Chinese renewable energy enterprises. Then from the three perspectives of the relationship between the government and renewable energy enterprises, the characteristics of renewable energy enterprises, the response of the product market and financial market to renewable energy, this paper innovatively explores how different dimensions will adjust the non-linear relationship between strategic investment of renewable energy enterprises and economic policy uncertainty. The analysis in this paper closely relies on the characteristics of the renewable energy industry at this stage, so our conclusion can provide a reference for the government to formulate the development plan of renewable energy enterprises scientifically and prudently.     

生产性服务业FDI对制造业效率影响研究——基于信息基础建设的调节效应

随着产业信息化的发展,信息基础建设对生产性服务业外商直接投资（FDI）和制造业效率之间的关系产生的影响越发显著。因此,揭示信息基础建设在生产性服务业FDI与制造业效率影响关系中发挥的作用具有重要的研究意义。采用2011—2020年中国省级面板数据为研究对象构建调节效应模型,在分析生产性服务业FDI对制造业效率影响的基础上,探讨信息基础建设在生产性服务业FDI与制造业效率影响关系中发挥的作用。结果表明：就全国而言,信息基础建设水平越高,生产性服务业FDI对制造业效率的促进作用越强;进一步考虑到区域异质性后发现,东部地区信息基础建设存在显著的正向调节效应,而西部地区信息基础建设的调节效应并不明显。     

Determinants of bond market development in Asia

One of the major reasons behind the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the excessive dependence of the Asian economies on commercial banks for domestic financing. The region failed to diversify its sources of corporate financing as it relied mainly on banks since its other types of financing, namely bond markets, were still underdeveloped and their sizes were quite small. On the other hand, the 2008 global financial crisis and the ongoing European debt crisis have led to constraints in acquiring local currency and foreign currency liquidity in the corporate sector in Asia as foreign banks withdrew investments from Asia. Furthermore, Asia needs large long term capital (US$ 750 billion per year for 2010–2020) for developing infrastructure connectivity within and across its economies. Local and regional capital can be channeled for long-term infrastructure projects and other productive investment through bond markets. Having a well-developed local currency bond markets can enhance the resilience of domestic financial sector to external shocks and it can facilitate better intermediation of savings into productive investments in Asia. To enhance corporate bond financing, it is important to examine factors that affect the effective development of bond markets in Asia. The study attempts to identify the determinants of bond market development in Asian economies through examining the relationship of bond issuance with selected key financial and economic factors. It also intends to provide policy recommendations for the further development of the Asian bond market. Major determinants for bond market development in Asia include the size of an economy, the stage of economic development, the openness of an economy, the exchange rate variability, the size of the banking system, and interest rate variability.     

广佛同城对佛山房地产业的影响研究

应用房地产增加值、房地产投资额、自然空置率、房价收入比等指标对佛山房地产业进行研究,并运用GM(1,1)模型对房价进行预测。根据房地产业与区域经济的关系,探索广佛同城对佛山房地产的影响,发现佛山房地产业的发展空间大、投资合理、需求稍大于供求、房价稍高的状况。结果表明佛山房地产业在受广佛同城化的影响下发展是比较健康的,同时对研究发现的问题提出建议。     

农村基础设施投资是拉动还是挤出了居民消费

公共投资对居民消费存在拉动和挤出两种效应。文章利用2000-2010年全国30个省份的数据计算出农村基础设施投资存量,采用动态面板模型对农村基础设施投资存量与农村居民消费之间的关系作了实证分析。结果表明：从全国范围来看,基础设施投资对居民消费具有"挤出"效应,中部地区也同样呈现出"挤出"效应,东部和西部地区效应不明显。从基础设施结构来看,电力、燃气、水利和环境基础设施,卫生、社会保障和社会福利、文化体育和娱乐业基础设施对居民的消费具有"挤出"效应;交通运输、仓储、邮政以及信息传递和软件业基础设施,教育设施、科技服务和地质勘探基础设施对农村居民消费影响不显著。就此,应加大对西部及落后地区的投入,中、东部地区适当控制投入;完善基础设施的投资结构,增加对电力、水利、交通、教育、科技等基础设施的投入;引入民间资本投资农村基础设施等。     

Modeling the location choices of foreign investments in Chinese logistics industry

This paper attempts to identify the location determinants of foreign investment in the Chinese logistics industry. Based on a theoretical model, a nested logit model is introduced and estimated using data on 1775 foreign logistics establishments. We find that large market size attracts foreign investment, but high labor costs act as a deterrent. Good transportation infrastructure and high labor quality are positive factors. Logistics entrants prefer cities with many existing logistics providers, confirming the existence of service agglomeration economies. Capital cities attract more logistics investment, but there is no evidence that special economic zones and open coastal cities have significant advantages in attracting logistics investment.     

Saving,investment, growth and the cost of financial repression

This paper presents a quantitative estimate of the cost of financial repression in developing countries. Here, financial repression is interpreted as the technique of holding institutional interest rates (particularly deposit rates of interest) below their market equilibrium levels. For a sample of developing countries, saving is found to be affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest, as is real money demand, where money is defined broadly to include savings and time deposits. Under disequilibrium interest rate conditions, higher saving which raises real money demand increases pari passu the real supply of credit. Credit availability is an important determinant not only of new investment but also of capacity utilization of the entire capital stock. Hence, the growth rate is itself affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest through two channels – first, the volume of saving and investment and, second, capacity utilization of the entire capital stock, i.e. the measured incremental capital/output ratio. Estimates of saving and growth functions lead to the conclusion that the cost of financial repression appears to be around half a percetage point in economic growth foregone for every one percentage point by which the real deposit rate of interest is set below its market equilibrium rate.     

The Research of the Construction Time on City Infrastructure Projects

The project construction time is not sufficiently considered in the decision-making procedure of the extant city infrastructure project all over the world. From the principle to increase benefit from the investment, the paper discusses the influence of construction time on benefit from investment, the condition of the optimal construction time, the method to confirm the optimal construction time, etc., under the increases of market demand, the paper establishes mathematics model between the construction time and the project benefit, and the model involves the project age, the construction time, the capital cost, the market demand, the discount rate and so on. Finally, the paper quantitatively analyzes the influence characteristics and degrees of construction time to the project profits, and the method to determine the optimal construction time of a project under different market demand .To emphasize that, the paper researches on Chinese cases, but, the conclusion put forward has the widespread significance to the time choice on city infrastructure project of other countries.     

电信基础设施共建共享策略研究文献综述

在我国电信产业不断发展壮大的过程中,基础设施共建共享被视为是一种避免重复建设、节省投资、优化电信资源配置、提高运营效率以及促进电信市场有效竞争的一项有效措施。同时,基础设施共建共享,也被我国电信管制部门纳入新一轮电信重组之后,资源整合与规范电信市场基础设施建设领域的一项重要措施。文章从研究性的角度出发,系统总结了国外优秀电信企业的成功经验,全面分析了我国电信基础设施共建共享的发展及现阶段的工作进展状况,深度剖析了相关研究者对我国共建共享问题的研究焦点及成果,并进行了述评。