Stock market cycles and stock market development in Spain

In this paper we use Spanish stock market data to identify the bull and bear phases of the market and to analyze its characteristics during the period 1941-2002. We compare these characteristics with those of the US and of two other European countries (Germany and the UK). Our sample is divided in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the process of development undergone by Spanish capital markets in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We find that the Spanish stock market has become increasingly more similar to those of the more developed countries, although some differences still persist. Additionally, we show that concordance of the Spanish stock market with other developed markets has increased quite significantly.JEL Classification: C22, G15An earlier version of the paper circulated under the title Bulls and bears: lessons from some European countries. Comments from seminar participants at the Universidad de Navarra, at the IX Meeting of the Spanish Finance Association (Pamplona 2001) and at the Royal Econonomic Society Conference (Warwick 2002) are gratefully acknowledged. We are very grateful to J.M. Campa, G. Llorente and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank D. Garcia and the Research Department of the Madrid Stock Exchange for generously providing the data of the Spanish case. Financial assistance from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology (SEC2002-01839) is gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Satisficing behavior, Brouwer’s Fixed Point Theorem and Nash Equilibrium

Summary. We show that Nash Equilibrium points can be obtained by using response maps or reply functions that simply use better responses rather than best responses. We demonstrate the existence of a Nash Equilibrium as the fixed point of a better response map and since the better response map is continuous the fixed point can be established by simply using Brouwers fixed point theorem. The proof applies to games with a finite number of strategies as well as to games with a continuum of strategies. In case the games have a continuum of strategies the payoff functions have to be continuous on the action sets and quasi concave on the players action set.Received: 22 September 2003, Revised: 31 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D00, D40. Correspondence to: Robert A. BeckerWe have benefited from comments on an earlier draft made by participants at Indiana Universitys Microeconomics workshop (October 2002) and the Midwest Economic Theory Conference held at the University of Pittsburgh (May 2003). We also thank Roy Gardner for comments on earlier versions. We thank the Associate Editor, Mark Machina, for his detailed comments and suggestions. This project began when Subir Chakrabarti was a visitor in the Department of Economics, Indiana University, Bloomington in the Spring of 2002. He thanks that department for its support.     

On the continuity of equilibrium and core correspondences in economies with differential information

Summary. We study upper semi-continuity of the private and coarse core and the Walrasian expectations equilibrium correspondences for economies with differential information, with Boylan (1971) topology on agents information fields.Received: 16 January 2004, Revised: 28 October 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D50, D82, C70. Correspondence to: Ezra EinyWe wish to thank Carlos Herves, Nicholas Yannelis, and an anonymous referee for their helpful comments.     

The explanatory power of market-based trade theories for the trade between market economies and reform countries

We try to explain the bilateral trade structure between Austria and three of its former socialist neighbours by trade theories developed for market economies, specifically focussing on the Heckscher-Ohlin model in its commodity version. We use data on factor intensities in about 100 industries in the EC and in Austria and can explain a modest amount of the trade structure before and after the start of the transition process and to some degree also of the change in the trade structure. The restrictions given by the data, the absence of a price system in socialist countries and the disequilibria in the actual trade suggest why the explanatory power of the tested theory is not higher. The study however indicates that at least some part of the industry in the former Czechoslovakia and in Poland had been well endowed with capital and energy before the transition. In the first five years of the transition a balanced trade turned into a high deficit of the reform countries.The authors wish to thank the participants of the EMPIRICA ECONOMIC POLICY FORUM Consequences of Eastern European Reform in Vienna, October 18, 1993 for an intensive discussion. Thanks to Robert Holzmann, Michael Landesmann, Gabor Oblath, Sandor Richter, Gunther Tichy, Michael L. Wyzan for comments. We also thank Christa Magerl and Elisabeth Neppl-Oswald for the calculations and for reading various drafts of the paper.     

Stability of money demand in Switzerland: A comparison of the M2 and M3 cases

Long-run parameters of money demand functions for Switzerland's M2 and M3 aggregate are estimated and their stability investigated. For both aggregates a single stable cointegrating vector is found. Around these long-run relationships a single-equation model for m2 and a single-equation model for cpi is built respectively for M2 and M3, and both estimated models are found to be stable. Testing forecast performance, the cpi model seems to be superior to the m2 model, providing some positive signs that the M3 model is stable in the sense that it does not suffer from a structural break during the period of estimation.We would like to thank Jürgen Wolters and two anonymous referees for their comments and Neil Ericsson, David Hendry, Katarina Juselius, Helmut Lütkepohl, Grayham Mizon and the other participants of the Workshop on Money Demand in Europe, Berlin, October 10–11, 1997, where an earlier version of the paper was presented, for their suggestions. The data may be obtained from the internet, http://wotan.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/oekonometrie/engl/data.html. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the Swiss National Bank.     

Giffen goods and market making

Summary. This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible for the Giffen goods anomaly affecting traders demands in multi asset noisy, rational expectations equilibrium markets. The role that information plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market with risk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents have a dual trading motive: speculation and market making. The former entails using prices to assess the effect of error terms; the latter requires employing them to disentangle noise traders demands within aggregate orders. In a correlated environment this complicates the signal extraction problem and may generate upward sloping demand curves. Assuming (i) that competitive, risk neutral market makers price the assets or that (ii) uninformed traders risk tolerance coefficient grows unboundedly, removes the market making component from informed traders demands rendering them well behaved in prices.Received: 30 April 2002, Revised: 3 December 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: G100, G120, G140.Support from the Barcelona Economics Program of CREA and the Ente per gli Studi Monetari e Finanziari Luigi Einaudi, are gratefully acknowledged. I thank Anat Admati, Jordi Caballé, Giacinta Cestone, and Xavier Vives for useful suggestions. The comments provided by the Associate Editor and an anonymous referee greatly improved the papers exposition.     

The Hidden Structural Features of the Fiscal Rule: A European Saga

This paper addresses the question of the reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). More and more authors and policymakers are bringing to light the negative impacts of the European deficit rule on the countries and their ability to respond asymmetric economic shocks, and some are asking for a redefinition of the pact. If the focus of the SGP is only fiscal, and two of the biggest countries in Europe have failed to abide by the pact since its implementation, it seems clear that the SGP needs at least a re-examination. Yet, on the contrary, if we introduce into the analytical framework the SGPs impacts on the European Unions structural policies, the conclusions are far different. Abolishing the SGP could hinder the presently up-to-date convergence prospective. This paper proposes a theoretical analysis of the SGP that emphasizes a new feature of the SGP: a strong incentive to structural reforms.The author would like to thank the participants of the International Atlantic Economic Conference in Quebec City (Oct. 16–19, 2003) for their helpful comments, Kenneth Donahue, and two anonymous referees. The usual caveat applies.     

Are incomplete markets able to achieve minimal efficiency?

Summary. We consider economies with incomplete markets, one good per state, two periods, t = 0,1, private ownership of initial endowments, a single firm, and no assets other than shares in this firm. In Dierker, Dierker, Grodal (2002), we give an example of such an economy in which all market equilibria are constrained inefficient. In this paper, we weaken the concept of constrained efficiency by taking away the planners right to determine consumers investments. An allocation is called minimally constrained efficient if a planner, who can only determine the production plan and the distribution of consumption at t = 0, cannot find a Pareto improvement. We present an example with arbitrarily small income effects in which no market equilibrium is minimally constrained efficient.Received: 26 November 2002, Revised: 28 May 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D2, D52, D61, G1.We are grateful to an anonymous referee for very valuable comments. E. and H. Dierker would like to thank the Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, for its hospitality and its financial support.     

Computing equilibria in finance economies with incomplete markets and transaction costs

Summary. Transaction costs on financial markets may have important consequences for volumes of trade, asset pricing, and welfare. This paper introduces an algorithm for the computation of equilibria in the general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets and transaction costs. We show that economies with transaction costs can be analyzed with differentiable homotopy techniques and thus in the same framework as frictionless economies despite the existence of non-differentiabilities of agents asset demand functions and the existence of locally non-unique equilibria. We introduce an equilibrium selection concept into the computation of economic equilibria that picks out a specific equilibrium in the presence of a continuum of equilibria.Received: 2 December 2002, Revised: 15 November 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C61, C62, C63, C68, D52, D58, G11, G12. Correspondence to: P. Jean-Jacques HeringsThis research started when Jean-Jacques Herings enjoyed the generous hospitality of the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics at Yale University. His research has been made possible by a fellowship of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences and a grant of the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research. We thank audiences at Stanford University, UC San Diego, and Venice for discussions on the subject. We are very grateful to an anonymous referee for very helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

Maturity and volatility effects on UK smiles

The smile effect is a result of an empirical observation of the options implied volatility with the same expiration date, across different exercise prices. However, its shape has been under discussion seeming to be dependent on the option underlying security. In this paper, and filling up a scarce empirical research on the topic, we used liquid equity options on 9 stocks traded on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) between August 1990 and December 1991. We tested two different hypothesis for testing two different phenomena: (1) the increase of the smile as maturity approaches; (2) and the association between the smile and the volatility of the underlying stock. In order to estimate implied volatilities for unavailable exercise prices, we modelled the smile using cubic B-spline curves. We found empirical support for the smile intensification (the U-shape is more pronounced) as maturity approaches as well as when volatility rises. However, we found two major sources of disagreement with the literature on stochastic volatility models. First, as maturity approaches, out-of-the-money options implied volatility tends to be higher than the implied volatility of in-the-money options. Second, as the volatility of the underlying asset increases, the implied volatility of in-the-money options tends to be higher than implied volatility of out-of-the-money options.Received: September 2001, Accepted: September 2003, JEL Classification: G13Correspondence to: João L. C. DuqueWe thank Professor Dean A. Paxson (University of Manchester), António Sousa Câmara (University of Strathclyde), Ser-Huang Poon (University of Lancaster) and the attendees of the 26th EFA Annual Conference for helpful comments on previous versions of this paper. We also want to thank to two anonymous referees for their relevant comments and suggestions. Financial support granted by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) and the Programa Praxis XXI is gratefully acknowledged.     

Consumption externalities, rental markets and purchase clubs

Summary. A premise of general equilibrium theory is that private goods are rival. Nevertheless, many private goods are shared, e.g., through borrowing, through co-ownership, or simply because one persons consumption affects another persons wellbeing. I analyze consumption externalities from the perspective of club theory, and argue that, provided consumption externalities are limited in scope, they can be internalized through membership fees to groups. Two important applications are to rental markets and purchase clubs, in which members share the goods that they have individually purchased.Received: 2 June 2003, Revised: 8 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D11, D62.This paper was supported by the U.C., Berkeley Committee on Research, and the Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen. I am grateful to Birgit Grodal for her collaboration on the theory that underlies this paper, and for her helpful and motivating comments about these particular extensions. I also thank Hal Varian, Doug Lichtman, Steve Goldman, Karl Vind, anonymous referees, and members of the Berkeley Microeconomics Seminar for discussion.     

Stock prices,production and interest rates: Comparison of three European countries with the USA

This paper investigates the relationships between stock returns, changes in production, and changes in interest rates in three European countries: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The results obtained using annual data are much more conclusive than those obtained using quarterly data. Stock returns are affected by current changes in interest rates and by future changes in production. The dependence on changes in interest rates seems to be higher than on changes in production. Furthermore, the influence of future changes in production on stock returns diminishes substantially when contemporaneous changes in interest rates are taken into account. With reference to these points, the European markets behave in a similar fashion, but are in sharp contrast with the U.S. market.I am very grateful to Kay Davidson, Patric Hendershott and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. I am solely responsible for all remaining errors.     

Large games with transformed summary statistics

Summary. The existence of pure-strategy Nash equilibrium is shown for a non-cooperative game with a continuum of small players and a compact action space. The players payoffs depend on their own actions and the mean of the transformed strategy profiles. This covers the case when the payoffs depend on players own actions and finitely many summary statistics.Received: 24 November 2003, Revised: 29 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C7, D4. Correspondence to: Haomiao YuThe authors are grateful to Yeneng Sun for his help and guidance. They also thank Ali Khan, Kali Rath, and an anonymous referee for useful comments.     

"Meteor showers" and "heat waves" in Greek financial markets

This paper examines the presence of "meteor showers" and "heat waves" effects in Greek financial markets. In particular, the relationship between the stock market price index volatility and the volatility of three exchange rates (U.S. dollar, deutsche mark, and ECU) recorded on a daily basis is investigated. The results provide evidence in favor of the "heat wave" hypothesis, while the "meteor shower" hypothesis was observed only with respect to the U.S. dollar.We would like to thank, without implicating, participants in the Country Studies session of the 43rd International Atlantic Economic Conference held in London, England and especially Dorota Witkowska for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Money,price dispersion and welfare

Summary. We introduce heterogeneous preferences into a tractable model of monetary search to generate price dispersion, and then examine the effects of money growth on price dispersion and welfare. With buyers search intensity fixed, we find that money growth increases the range of (real) prices and lowers welfare as agents shift more of their consumption to less desirable goods. When buyers search intensity is endogenous, multiple equilibria are possible. In the equilibrium with the highest welfare level, money growth reduces welfare and increases the range of prices, while having ambiguous effects on search intensity. However, there can be a welfare-inferior equilibrium in which an increase in money growth increases search intensity, increases welfare, and reduces the range of prices.Received: 25 July 2003, Revised: 12 December 2003JEL Classification Numbers: E31, D60.B. Peterson, S. Shi: We thank Gabriele Camera, Aleksander Berentsen and an anonymous referee for useful suggestions. We have also received valuable comments from the participants of the workshop at Michigan State, the Purdue Conference on Monetary Theory (2003) and the Midwest Macro Meeting (Chicago, 2003). Shi gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Bank of Canada Fellowship and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. The opinion expressed here is the authors own and does not reflect the view of the Bank of Canada.Correspondence to: S. Shi     

Labour market institutions and the industry wage distribution

The paper studies the industry wage structures of Austria, Norway, the union sector of the U. S. as well as the non-union sector of the U. S. We make comparable regressions for each country, and are thus able to compare the sectoral earnings patterns controlling for the usual individual characteristics. Our results confirm the hypothesis that the pattern of the inter-industry pay structure is largely independent of labour market institutions: High paying industries in a non-union environment tend to pay high wages also in regimes where bargaining is very centralised and coordinated.This, however, does not mean that collective bargaining does not matter. The influence is mainly on the amount of wage dispersion: We find considerably lower industry pay gaps in centralised Austria and Norway than in decentralised U. S. Within the U. S., pay differentials within the union sector slightly exceed those of the non-union sector.The results give support to non-competitive explanations of the labour market. If efficiency wage mechanisms are the reason for wage differentials we expect central bargainers to internalise these effects. Competitive explanations, on the other hand, would predict no difference between the non-union outcome and a central agreement aiming at achieving full employment.This work was conducted while we were both affiliated with the University of California at Berkeley, and we thank the Institute of Industrial Relations at the University of California, Berkeley, for its support and hospitality. The research was supported by the Austrian Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung under the project JO548-SOZ (Zweimüller) and the Norwegian NORAS under the LOS program (Barth). A preliminary version of the paper was presented at the Labour Seminar at the University of California, Berkeley. We thank the participants, especially Bill Dickens and Jonathan Leonard for valuable comments. We are indebted to Bill Dickens also for giving us access to the U. S. data set CPS 1983. Thanks also to Herbert Walther for useful comments.     

Liquidity of secondary capital markets: Allocative efficiency and the maturity composition of the capital stock

Summary We investigate the function of liquid financial markets for the allocation of productive capital. We consider an economy where agents endogenously choose among capital production technologies with differing gestation periods. Long-gestation capital investments must be rolled-over in secondary capital markets. The use of such investment technologies therefore requires the support of liquid financial markets. We investigate how changes in the liquidity of these markets (i.e., in the costs of transacting) affect (a) the choice of capital production technology, (b) per capita income and the per capita capital stock, (c) the level of financial market activity, (d) the real return on savings and (e) welfare in a steady state equilibrium. Improvements in financial market liquidity raise rates of return on savings, and favor the increased use of long gestation capital investments. However, such improvements may or may not lead to higher levels of real activity or steady state welfare. We describe conditions under which various outcomes occur.We have benefited from the comments of seminar participants at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the International Monetary Fund, Berkeley, Boston College, Boston University, Brown, Chicago, Illinois, Miami, UC San Diego, Simon Fraser, University of British Columbia, University of Washington, Yale, the Canadian Macro Study Group Meetings, the Murrary S. Johnson Conference (University of Texas/Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), and the Far West Rotating Economic Theory Conference. We would also like to thank John Bryant, Andreas Hornstein, Dan Peled, Bill Schworm, Karl Shell, Bart Taub and an anonymous referee for their comments on an earlier draft of the paper.     

Ambiguity aversion and the absence of indexed debt

Summary. Following the seminal works of Schmeidler (1989), Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989), roughly put, an agents subjective beliefs are said to be ambiguous if the beliefs may not be represented by a unique probability distribution, in the standard Bayesian fashion, but instead by a set of probabilities. An ambiguity averse decision maker evaluates an act by the minimum expected value that may be associated with it. In spite of wide and long-standing support among economists for indexation of loan contracts there has been relatively little use of indexation, except in situations of extremely high inflation. The object of this paper is to provide a (theoretical) explanation for this puzzling phenomenon based on the hypothesis that economic agents are ambiguity averse. The paper considers a general equilibrium model based on Magill and Quinzii (1997) with ambiguity averse agents, where both nominal and indexed bond contracts are available for trade and all relevant prices are determined endogenously. We obtain conditions which prompt an endogenous cessation of trade in indexed bonds: i.e., conditions under which there is no trade in indexed bonds in any equilibrium; only nominal bonds are traded.Received: 7 April 2003, Revised: 8 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D81, E31, D52, E44.Correspondence to: Sujoy MukerjiWe thank seminar members at Birkbeck, Oxford, Paris I, Southampton and Tel Aviv, the audience at the 00 European Workshop on General Equilibrium Theory, and especially, E.Dekel, I. Gilboa, D. Schmeidler and A. Pauzner for helpful comments. The first author acknowledges financial assistance from an Economic and Social Research Council of U.K. Research Fellowship (# R000 27 1065). The second author thanks financial support from the French Ministry of Research (Action Concertée Incitative).     

Structural change in the presence of network externalities: a co-evolutionary model of technological successions

The paper uses a two-stage, multi-agent simulation model to examine the conditions under which technological successions can occur in the presence of network externalities. Data is used to identify a robust econometric model of the probability of succession. Four key factors are identified. First, the trade-off between higher direct utility from new technology goods and the network utility of old technology goods. Second, the relative innovative performance of new and old technology firms. Third, cost (price) differentials due to increasing returns in production. Fourth, the time old (new) firms have to develop their product designs prior to entry.JEL Classification: O30, C15 Correspondence to: Paul WindrumThe authors would like to thank Richard Nelson and Uwe Cantner for their helpful comments on an earlier draft of the paper, and for the comments provided by the anonymous referees. The usual disclaimers apply. The authors gratefully acknowledge supportive funding through SEIN-Project, European Commissions Framework 4 Programme (contract# SOEI-CT-98-1107) and through the Policy Regimes and Environmental Transitions (PRET) project funded by the Dutch Scientific Research Council (NWO).     

Evolutionary stable stock markets

Summary. This paper shows that a stock market is evolutionary stable if and only if stocks are evaluated by expected relative dividends. Any other market can be invaded in the sense that there is a portfolio rule that, when introduced on the market with arbitrarily small initial wealth, increases its market share at the incumbents expense. This mutant portfolio rule changes the asset valuation in the course of time. The stochastic wealth dynamics in our evolutionary stock market model is formulated as a random dynamical system. Applying this theory, necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the evolutionary stability of portfolio rules when relative dividend payoffs follow a stationary Markov process. These local stability conditions lead to a unique evolutionary stable portfolio rule according to which assets are evaluated by expected relative dividends (with respect to the objective probabilities).Received: 7 October 2003, Revised: 18 January 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: G11, D52, D81. Correspondence to: Klaus Reiner Schenk-HoppéWe are grateful to Jarrod Wilcox and William Ziemba for valuable comments. Financial support by the national center of competence in research Financial Valuation and Risk Management is gratefully acknowledged. The national centers in research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation on behalf of the federal authorities.