AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE EFFECT OF FULL‐SCALE SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE ADOPTIONS ON INVENTORY BALANCES AND TURNS

Supply chain management (SCM) software vendors, analysts, and others claim that firms implementing SCM software stand to benefit by being able to reduce inventory holdings and increase inventory turns. We theorize that full‐scale implementations lead to system‐wide inventory optimization, which in turn leads to cost improvement associated with inventory balances and turns. To examine the question, we develop an analytical model of inventory optimization, then analyze the effects of the model with a numerical experiment, and finally confirm the results with an empirical examination. We find that firm‐wide implementation is significant in explaining improvement in inventory metrics, relative to pre‐implementation metrics for our sample. Our empirical tests indicate that implementing SCM software across only a portion of the firm does not impact inventory metrics, but that the scale of implementation does. More precisely, we find that firms implementing SCM software across the entire company significantly improve both inventory turns and inventory as a percent of revenue relative to partially‐implementing firms and non‐implementers.     

Managerial evaluation of sales forecasting effectiveness: A MIMIC modeling approach

A Multiple Indicators and MultIple Causes (MIMIC) model is developed in which managerial evaluations of forecasting effectiveness are modeled as a function of different forecast performance criteria, namely, accuracy, bias, timeliness and cost. The model is estimated using data from a survey of export sales forecasting practices and several hypotheses linking the aforementioned criteria on effectiveness are tested. The findings indicate that evaluations of forecasting effectiveness are equally influenced by short-term accuracy and absence of overestimating bias, while timely delivery of the forecast to management is somewhat less important. Long-term accuracy, underestimation and timing of production of the forecast are not found to impact on effectiveness. Implications of the results for forecasting practice are considered and future research directions identified.     

On the optimal mix of corporate hedging instruments: Linear versus nonlinear derivatives

We examine how corporations should choose their optimal mix of linear and nonlinear derivatives. We present a model in which a firm facing both quantity (output) and price (market) risk maximizes its expected profits when subjected to financial distress costs. The optimal hedging position generally is comprised of linear contracts, but as the levels of quantity and price‐risk increase, the use of linear contracts will decline due to the risks associated with overhedging. At the same time, a substitution effect occurs toward the use of nonlinear contracts. The degree of substitution will depend on the correlation between output levels and prices. Our model also allows us to provide insight into the relation between a firm's derivatives usage and its transaction‐cost structure. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:217–239, 2003     

A GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN PROFIT MAXIMIZATION AND TRANSFER PRICING MODEL

In environments where tax rates in local regions do not represent major decision factors, a cost minimization methodology, which represents the most common optimization modeling approach for integrated manufacturing and distribution planning, can help formulate an effective integrated plan. However, when planning flexibility or alternatives exist because of differing local country tax rates and types and intra‐company transfer pricing options, cost minimization methodologies may inaccurately identify profit‐maximizing global production and distribution plans. Instead, a profit maximization model that explicitly evaluates decisions such as where to incur tax liabilities and how to set intra‐company prices may be required to develop an integrated global manufacturing and distribution plan. In this paper, we discuss and formulate a model that yields profit maximizing global production and distribution plans. We discuss the managerial implications of our results, and the potential applications and benefits of the model.     

The impact of daily weather on retail sales: An empirical study in brick-and-mortar stores

In this study, we examine the influence of weather on daily sales in brick-and-mortar retailing using empirical data for 673 stores. We develop a random coefficient model that considers non-linear effects and seasonal differences using different weather parameters. In the ex-post analysis using historic weather data, we quantify the explanatory power of weather information on daily sales, identify store-specific effects and analyze the influence of specific sales themes. We find that the weather has generally a complex effect on daily sales while the magnitude and the direction of the weather effect depend on the store location and the sales theme. The effect on daily sales can be as high as 23.1% based on the store location and as high as 40.7% based on the sales theme. We also find that the impact of extreme bad and good weather occurrences can be misestimated by traditional models that do not consider non-linear effects. In the ex-ante analysis, we analyze if weather forecasts can be used to improve the daily sales forecast. We show that including weather forecast information improves sales forecast accuracy up to seven days ahead. However, the improvement of the forecast accuracy diminishes with a higher forecast horizon.     

The Role of Geography in Financial and Economic Integration: A Comparative Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment,Trade and Portfolio Investment Flows

The objective of this paper is to examine the role of geography in explaining the patterns of financial and economic integration among both developed and developing countries. Using a gravity model, we compare North‐North, North‐South and South‐North FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows to examine how geographical factors influence these bilateral flows. The results indicate that the impact of geography variables on FDI and portfolio are similar to their effect on trade. Geography variables have a statistically significant effect both on FDI and portfolio investment, but FDI is more sensitive to distance. We interpret the negative effect of distance as the existence of information costs in financial flows. Also bilateral FDI, trade and portfolio investment flows react to macroeconomic fundamentals in the same way, however, with different degrees of sensitivity. There are significant differences between North‐North and North‐South flows. Our results find support for the argument that most FDI among industrial countries are horizontal, whereas most FDI investment in developing countries is vertical. The fact that the significance of geographical variables on financial flows still remained even after controlling for the macroeconomic fundamentals, is in contrast with the standard capital market model. The results can, however, be reconciled if geographical factors can proxy for information costs, which may in turn explain why country portfolios are still home‐biased. The significant effect of distance on financial flows may also explain how idiosyn cratic shocks are spread (i.e. contagion) to other countries in the same region. Ultimately, the geographical location of a country may determine its economic and financial integration into the world economy.     

基于精益视角的供应链流程时间效益研究

经过多年的探索与实践,精益生产方式已经展现出诸多优势,并以其最佳的运作方式和快速的反应速度获得了制造业的大力支持。但是,企业在学习精益生产的过程中,时间成本往往是被忽略的对象,与传统生产方式相统一的传统会计模式也显现出与精益生产方式的不匹配,阻碍了制造业精益之路的可持续发展。为了提高精益改善的有效性,本文以精益生产理论为依托,根据时间具有经济性的特点,深入研究成本控制与时间效益的关系,应用基于过程周期时间的成本分摊方法找出改善环节,依据供应链流程提出创造时间效益的对策。     

流通成本变动与制造业空间集聚机制--基于全国面板数据的经验实证分析

本文基于中心－外围模型,通过流通成本和流通供给能力这两个核心概念,运用比较静态分析方法探讨流通成本变动对制造业空间集聚的作用机制,依据2004－2013年中国工业经济的相关数据剖析流通成本的构成并计算各地区的显性流通成本和隐性流通成本。实证研究结果显示,各地区的流通成本差异显著,隐性流通成本对制造业空间集聚的影响十分显著,流通成本与制造业集聚之间呈负相关,中国各地区流通成本差异是影响制造业发展的主要因素之一。针对流通成本变动与制造业空间集聚的作用机制,本文试图提供一个研究区域范围内工业集聚、市场潜力与地区收入差距的分析参照。     

服务型制造企业供应商选择研究

研究服务型制造企业在生产方式方面的转变,结果表明企业对服务的依赖性正在增强,价值链也在向服务延伸,逐步向消费者提供面向全生命周期的服务,而且服务型制造企业在选择供应商时更加注重供应商的环保绩效、服务能力和质量以及成本柔性。在此基础上运用模糊相似优先比方法建立供应商评价模型,实例的分析结果表明该模型为服务型制造背景下,供应商选择问题提供了有效的技术经济分析方法。     

Exposure to the new wave of offshoring: An unemployment perspective

This paper examines the impact of increasing service offshoring in a two‐sector economy. We find that it leads to lower domestic unemployment if the marginal task‐specific offshoring cost in the service sector is sufficiently large. Under this condition, the jobs created due to enhanced productivity outweigh the jobs that are destroyed. The reduction in unemployment increases the cost of hiring domestic workers, thus encouraging firms in the manufacturing sector to increase their offshoring scale and productivity. This, in turn, increases their cost savings and may lead to a further decrease in unemployment. Hence, complementarity between two sectors’ offshoring activities may emerge. We calibrate the model using economic parameters from Belgium, and the calibration results predict varied unemployment trends and impacts on manufacturing‐sector offshoring activities with different task‐specific offshoring cost schedules.     

Forecast information and traditional retailer performance in a dual-channel competitive market

Independent firms in a dual-channel competitive market are expected to have their own information about the nature of the market. In this research, we develop a game-theoretic model to examine the value of forecast information about consumers' willingness to pay. The model is based on a simultaneously played Bertrand game. Our results indicate that the profits of online as well as traditional retailers always increase with forecast accuracy, and that forecast accuracy has a greater effect on the performance of the traditional retailer than on that of the online retailer. Our results also show that the difference in profit between that of the traditional retailer and the online retailer increases with forecast accuracy. In addition we find that forecast accuracy is much more valuable to the traditional retailer when there is an increasing volatility in the market, an increasing level of consumer valuation of the product, and an increasing intensity in market competition. Based on our results, we derive optimal market strategies and identify directions of future research.     

Domestic transport infrastructure and firms’ export market participation

Investment in transport infrastructure reduces the cost of distance and enables firms to establish contacts over larger distances. Using data from a panel of Spanish manufacturing firms and geographic information system techniques, this article studies the impact of domestic transport cost reductions on firms’ export market participation, taking into account the role of entry costs and other firm characteristics. We estimate dynamic probability models, controlling for the unobserved heterogeneity of firms and for the simultaneity of firms’ export and location decisions. Our results demonstrate a positive effect of domestic transport infrastructure improvements on small and medium-sized firms’ probability of exporting.     

Can Africa compete with China in manufacturing? The role of relative unit labour costs

This paper examines sub‐Saharan Africa's (SSA ) bilateral trade and cost competitiveness with China. We document an extraordinary imbalance in the structure of bilateral trade in that China overwhelmingly exports manufactured products to SSA and almost exclusively imports primary products in return. Our principal means of assessing the competitiveness of SSA 's manufacturing sector vis‐à‐vis China are measures of relative unit labour costs (RULC ). We find that African RULC s declined over the 2000s as China's wages rose faster than Chinese productivity while the reverse was true for the SSA countries in our sample. Nevertheless, RULC s vis‐à‐vis China remain very high for many SSA countries. High RULC s along with weaknesses in the business climate suggest that most SSA countries are unlikely to be competitive in labour‐intensive manufacturing any time soon.     

On the Role of Imports in Enhancing Manufacturing Exports

Making use of a large panel data set on Italian manufacturing firms, we provide evidence on the effect of imports on the firm's export performance. We distinguish imports of intermediates according to their origin, and we find that inputs sourced from low labour cost countries promote the firm's export activity. Imports from high‐income countries do not significantly contribute to the export orientation of firms, especially when both persistence in export and the possible endogeneity of the import measures are accounted for via system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation of a linear probability model. Our evidence suggests that the impact of imports on the firms’ export activity works through the cost‐saving channel rather than the technology channel.     

Export Survival in Global Production Chains

In this paper, we examine the survival capacity of trade relationships in cross‐border production chains. Our main contribution is to show that there are differences in the probability of export interruption between intermediate and final stages along the global value chain, finding a lower sensitivity of intermediate goods to the increasing competition from lower‐income countries. In addition, the paper also makes a methodological contribution by using time‐discrete duration models with product‐country random effects to control for unobservable heterogeneity and by including interactions in the model, in order to identify the sources of these differences. Our estimates show that variables such as EU membership, export experience, product and market diversification, initial trade value, destination market size, geographical proximity and economic proximity reduce the likelihood of export failure more for intermediate than for final goods, being the differential impact particularly higher for the two first variables. These results would suggest that factors that reduce uncertainty and search costs and increase trust and reliability among production partners are particularly relevant for intermediate stages, fostering the probability of remaining an active member of global production chains.     

R&D Productivity and the Spillover Effects of High‐tech Industry on the Traditional Manufacturing Sector: The Case of Taiwan

This study sets out to estimate the impact of R&D on productivity within the private sector, with further analysis of the different impacts of R&D within high‐tech and traditional manufacturing firms. We also attempt to examine the spillover effects from R&D investment in the high‐tech sector on productivity growth within the traditional industries. Using a sample of 136 large manufacturing firms during the period 1994–2000, we develop an extended version of the Cobb‐Douglas production function model, and our findings suggest that Taiwan's R&D investment had a significant impact on firm productivity growth, with output elasticity standing at around 0.18. When the sample is divided into high‐tech and traditional firms, the R&D output elasticity in high‐tech firms is significantly greater than that found in traditional firms. In addition, the average rate of return in high‐tech firms is much greater than that estimated for other industries. Besides, our empirical results show that, although significant, the impact of R&D investment from the high‐tech sector, on the productivity growth of traditional firms, is rather limited.     

Trade Costs and Current Accounts

Are trade cost reductions a plausible explanation for growing global current account imbalances? I advocate that changes in trade costs affect trade and production structures, which is likely to affect national savings and investment. Explicitly adding trade costs à la Markusen and Venables into Jin's framework, this augmented model predicts that trade cost reductions affect the current account through changes in the industrial structure. Empirical evidence confirms that the interaction of trade costs and capital intensity drives current account balances. I also provide evidence that the response of current accounts to changes in trade costs depends on the capital intensity of production and on the depth of regional agreements on trade and factor mobility. Aside from the direct effect generally emphasised in standard macro‐level analysis, changes in production patterns could therefore be an additional channel of impact of regional integration on current accounts.     

Top‐Down Versus Bottom‐Up Demand Forecasts: The Value of Shared Point‐of‐Sale Data in the Retail Supply Chain

Accurate demand forecasts are critical to maintaining customer service levels and minimizing total costs, yet increasingly difficult to achieve. Using weekly point‐of‐sale (POS) and order data for 10 ready‐to‐eat cereal stock‐keeping units from 18 regional U.S. grocery distribution centers, this research empirically investigates two demand forecasting issues: (1) the accuracy of top‐down versus bottom‐up demand forecasts; and (2) whether shared POS data improve demand forecast accuracy. The results reveal a previously unexplored relationship between demand forecast methodology and the use of shared POS data. We find that the superiority of the top‐down or bottom‐up forecasting as the more accurate demand forecast method depends on whether shared POS data are used.     

The merits of horizontal versus vertical FDI in the presence of uncertainty

We examine the impact of uncertainty on vertical and horizontal FDI. Our model shows that greater supply uncertainty reduces the expected income from vertical FDI but increases the expected income from horizontal FDI. Greater demand uncertainty adversely affects the expected income under both production modes. Uncertainty about predatory actions by the host country is more costly to the multinational under vertical than under the horizontal mode. We examine sales by foreign affiliates of U.S. parent companies. Conditioning on host-country characteristics thought to influence FDI, we find evidence that volatility and sovereign risk have a greater negative impact on vertical FDI than on horizontal FDI.     

Pricing,greening, and transparency decisions considering the impact of government subsidies and CSR behavior in supply chain decisions

In this paper, we analytically model different government subsidy strategies in a supply chain manufacturing and selling a green product. We model the interaction between greening degree and transparency level set by a manufacturer and its impact on not only the supply chain, but also consumers and the government. The supply chain is composed of a manufacturer and a retailer. The manufacturer can choose two different strategies. First, he only cares about his production profit; and second, he concerns with CSR in addition to his production profit. We develop a new transparency-based index of consumer satisfaction to model how the market reacts to manufacturer CSR decisions. The government decide three different subsidy strategies. A three-stage Stackelberg game model is developed and solved to analytically derive managerial insights. As a result, if the transparency cost coefficient is sufficiently high, the greening degree and transparency level in CSR concerns strategy are higher than when the manufacturer is not concerned with corporate social responsibility. In addition, when the transparency cost coefficient is sufficiently high, the profit of supply chain members and government are equal in both strategies. We give a real-world example of Iranian brick industry.